macrogoldsilver.blogg.se

Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

ECB verkar inte vara klara för att sätta igång ett QE program, hoppas på tillväxt ändå.

Publicerad 2014-04-29 17:51:03 i Ekonomi,

If this scenario plays out – that an economy grows as bank credit stagnates or declines – QE will even officially have zero impact on the real economy since the cheap bank credit it is supposed to make available, when short-term interest rates are already near-zero, won’t be used.

That would remove the fig leaf for QE. And it would bare its raison d’être, namely inflating asset prices to enrich those who hold these assets. But asset prices have been inflated for years, and those few who hold these assets have already been enriched far beyond what they can spend. Whatever little economic impact the illusory “wealth effect” might have had, has already dissipated. Hence, Draghi’s confession to the German lawmakers, even if given under duress: QE won’t be happening anytime soon.

Jim Cramer tror momentum aktierna har mer att ge på nedsidan.

Publicerad 2014-04-29 16:30:27 i Ekonomi,

‘If history is any guide, then the high-flying biotechs, Internet plays, and of course the cloud-based software-as-a-service stocks, could still have a long way to fall.’

That’s the conclusion of Jim Cramer after consulting with top technical analyst Tim Collins, who noted similarities between the current decline in momentum stocks and the dotcom collapse back in 2000.

Ominously Collins found that patterns among stocks such as Cisco, Priceline, JDSU, Amazon, ICG and Akamai in 2000 appear to be similar to patterns that are currently emerging in the momentum stocks of 2014…

 

Nasdaq är på väg att forma ett death cross, möjligen i juni.

Publicerad 2014-04-29 10:46:03 i Ekonomi,

Silver har permanent dom största kortningarna och det tar 150 dagar att producera lika mycket som dom 8 största handlarna har i korta positioner.

Publicerad 2014-04-28 15:13:11 i Ekonomi,

Here's Nick Laird's "Days of World Production to Cover Short Positions" chart updated with Friday's COT data for the Big 4 and Big 8 traders.  If it wasn't for JPMorgan's long-side corner in the Comex gold market, the four precious metals would occupy the first four spots in a row on the right-hand side of the chart.

Utländska köp av obliagtioner i USA minskar i rask takt. Vem skall finansiera underskotten?

Publicerad 2014-04-28 12:04:39 i Ekonomi,

Utländska köpare av amerikanska obligationer minskar sina köp samtidigt som FED fortsätter att minska tryckningen av nya pengar. Om nu inte utlänningarna köper och FED har mindre pengar att köpa för, vem skall då stå för finansieringen av USAs underskott av finanserna. Antigen trycker FED pengar som inte rapportteras eller så måste räntan upp för att göra det attraktivt för utlänningar att komma tillbaka till den amerikanska obligations marknaden.

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gått för guld

Publicerad 2014-04-25 15:56:00 i Ekonomi,

Gold is now extremely oversold, with emotional opinion in paper markets unanimously bearish. Traders tell us the 200-day moving average is well and truly broken and the next support level is $1260. However, when gold broke down through the $1280 level yesterday it rallied sharply to test the $1300 level in a one-day spike reversal.

Market chat and technical analysis are one thing; more important are the motives behind the commentary, revealed by a dispassionate look at Comex figures. And here we see that Producers and Merchants short positions have fallen to an eight-year low at 73,033 contracts, against a long term average of 186,400. This is the primary source of liquidity for all futures markets, and it has simply dried up.

Swap dealers have also cut their shorts dramatically, reducing their net position by 26,582 contracts, and the eight largest traders between them have a level book. In short, the bears have to persuade us to sell, or they will be in trouble.

The figures quoted above are as of 15th April. Since then the gold price confirms this analysis by refusing to go lower and stay there (hence yesterday's spike reversal), while open interest has risen from the post-Lehman crisis low on 4 April. This is shown in the chart below.

gold

The rise in open interest tells us that the shorts, mostly hedge funds, are opening new positions and failing to drive prices lower, so the market is being set up for another bear squeeze. By way of confirmation the gold forward rate in London remains negative up to three months out, indicating an extreme shortage of physical metal at these prices.

In these markets sentiment can change very rapidly. We read this week that the US is on the brink of another housing crisis because sales (demand) have stalled. Last weekend the Ukrainian protagonists met in Geneva and agreed to "de-escalate" the situation. By Monday the situation was escalating again.

Oh, and the best contrary indicator of the lot was also on Monday, when according to the Wall Street Journal's Market Watch blog, for the first time ever all 72 economists polled by the National Association for Business Economics expect the US economy to grow this year. It is usually right to bet against such unanimity in economists.

Vad händer inom bank världen, totalt 14 döda i år genom märkliga omständigheter.

Publicerad 2014-04-25 11:47:08 i Ekonomi,

There have been 13 senior financial services executives deaths around the world
this year, but the most notable thing about the sad suicide of the 14th, a
52-year-old banker at France's Bred-Banque-Populaire, is she is the
first female
. As Le
Parisien reports
, Lydia (no surname given) jumped from the bank's Paris
headquarter's 14th floor shortly before 10am. FranceTV added that sources said
"she questioned her superiors before jumping out the window,"
but the bank denies it noting that she had been in therpapy for several years.
 
 

Jobless claims steg till genomsnittet för de senaste åtta månaderna

Publicerad 2014-04-24 15:32:14 i Ekonomi,

Initial jobless claims surged from 304k to 329k this week, the biggest weekly rise since mid-December. From exuberance at new cycle lows, we swing to the average of the last 8 months. This is the biggest miss to expectations in over 2 months. Continuing Claims dropped further to new cycle lows at 2.68 million (beating expectations) - its lowest since Dec 2007. So this is as good as it gets for continuing claims - America is back at its best!

Initial claims surges back up to its average of the last 8 months...

[4]

 

Skrämmande liknelser mellan 2007 och 2014 när det gäller hus marknaden

Publicerad 2014-04-24 15:27:03 i Ekonomi,

Existing Home Sales 2007

Now look at this chart which shows what has happened to existing home sales in the United States in recent months.  If you compare the two charts, you will see that the numbers are eerily similar...

Existing Home Sales Today

New home sales are also following a similar pattern.  In fact, we just learned that new home sales have collapsed to an 8 month low...

New Home Sales 2007

And this chart shows what has happened to new homes sales during the past several months.  Sadly, we have never even gotten close to returning to the level that we were at back in 2007.  But even the modest "recovery" that we have experienced is now quickly unraveling...

New Home Sales Today

 

Från Marc Fabers blogg

Publicerad 2014-04-24 09:59:27 i Ekonomi,

 
Basically we had a huge run up in prices between 1999 (255 USD) to early September 2011 (1920 USD). We have been in a correction period. Now I think the correction period was partly justified because there was too much enthusiasm and speculation, leading to the peak of 2011. But I think that there have been some market manipulation, it could be. My sense is that the correction has probably come to an end, because if anything the fundamentals are much better today than they were at that time. But the price is down.
Every investor understand the principle buy low and sell high. When prices are low, nobody wants to buy. We also had very negative sentiment recently. I am not so sure about asset markets as we could one day after this colossal asset inflation of the last 20 to 30 years, also have asset deflation. But when I compare gold shares and the price of gold to the S&P 500, the S&P is up substantially since 2011 and gold is down.

Från Jim Rickards blogg

Publicerad 2014-04-22 19:04:11 i Ekonomi,

 
There’s been a lot of talk yet that China has acquired thousands of tons of gold. The world’s largest gold producer. The world’s largest gold importer and they’re also bringing in gold that’s not being reported in the official import statistics using military channels.
And I talk about that in Chapter 9 and Chapter 11 in my book, how they’re using the People’s Liberation Army to smuggle gold into China overland, without going through Hong Kong. So they’re getting all the gold they can and so are others. But there’s been a lot of speculation as to why is China getting all this gold.
Well, they must want a new reserve currency backed by gold. It may end up there, but that’s not what they’re doing in the short run. Here’s the way to think about it. They own $4 trillion of reserves today, mostly in paper assets. Most of that is US dollar denominated and most of that are US Treasury notes. So they’re the biggest creditor of the United States of America.
They actually don’t want to gold to skyrocket. What they want is a strong dollar. Nobody wants a stronger dollar more than China because China owns more dollar securities than anyone else in the world. But they’re worried. They’re fearful that we will inflate the dollar and if you do a 10% inflation of the dollar, you reduce the dollar’s value by 10%.
That’s like a $300 billion wealth transfer from China to the US because their assets are worth less, our liabilities go down, so we’re stealing wealth from China and they know it. Now they can’t dump these treasury securities. There are too many of them. But what they can do is buy gold and here’s how it works.
If we have a stable dollar maybe the gold doesn’t go up that much, but they’ll be very happy with that because their securities will be worth what they think they are. But if we inflate the dollar which we’re trying to do, they’re going to lose money on the paper, but they’re going to make it on the gold.
Because we all know that if inflations comes along gold is going to go up very, very significantly. So in effect they’re creating a hedge position. They’ve got paper over there, gold over here. They would like the paper to be valuable, but if the paper drops in value, the gold is going to go up. So they’re actually building a hedge book.
 

Husförsäljningen fortsätter att sjunka i USA

Publicerad 2014-04-22 18:30:14 i Ekonomi,

Another month, another drop in existing home sales, which in March declined once again from 4.60MM units to 4.59MM. While the good news was that this number did beat the consensus estimate of 4.56MM (based on a a range of 4.50MM to 4.85MM from 75 economist surveyed), the bad news was that once again, a near majority of the upside was once again due to investors and other all-cash buyers, who accounted for 50% of all sales. That and that like last time, of course, this was the worst existing home sales number since July 2012.
 
 

Belgien verkar gilla USAs skulder.

Publicerad 2014-04-22 14:03:18 i Ekonomi,

Belgien har nu $341 miljarder i amerikanska skuldsedlar. Då Belgiens BNP är ca $420 miljarder så förstår man att det inte är Belgien själva utan FED som köper. Belgien har nu motsvarande ca 80% av sin BNP i amerikanska skulder. Grattis Belgien.
  

Vart tar silvret vägen som försvinner från Comex och SHFE.

Publicerad 2014-04-22 10:37:46 i Ekonomi,

In less than two months, a total of 14.5 million oz (452 metric tons) of silver were removed from both exchanges.  The interesting thing to focus on here, is the difference in percentage of withdrawals at the two warehouses.  While the Comex experienced a 4% decline of its inventories, the SHFE lost 42% of its total warehouse stocks.
Comex Silver Inventories 41814
Shangahai Futures Exchange Silver Inventories April 18 2014

Dags för guld bolagen. Charts hämtade från Kingworldnews.

Publicerad 2014-04-17 10:20:27 i Ekonomi,

Below are two charts showing the HUI Gold Bugs Index vs S&P 500.  This ratio has seen some massive moves the past 15 years.  The HUI index did bottom against the S&P 500 back in 2001 at 0.03 and then went as high as 0.55 in 2011, for a staggering 1,830% gain.  After that peak, it has fallen back to 0.1, which represents an 82% collapse (see chart below):
Even with recent weakness, the MACD-indicator has now turned to a buy signal.  That’s a great signal since we are at such extreme levels, and in my opinion this is a very rare opportunity that should not go unnoticed by savvy investors.  Looking at the short-term picture, there’s a falling resistance line stretching from 2011 that has not yet been broken (see chart below):
 

Paul Craig Robert gästar Kingworldnews och är negativ till dollarn

Publicerad 2014-04-16 10:33:08 i Ekonomi,

The reason the dollar pressures may be on the verge of exploding is because the sanctions that we threatened the Russians with are forcing them to leave the dollar-based payment system.  Meaning, they are going to start selling their energy in rubles, or for gold.  They are also making barter deals with Iran.

But given the size of the Russian energy industry, if they remove that from the petrodollar it will mean a huge drop in the demand for dollars.  It may well be that the Fed has caught on, and if it can’t get the American sanctions against Russia cancelled it will have to take even more offsetting actions in order to protect the dollar.

I’ve read the reports that say Russia has given us the ‘finger’ and is saying, ‘We are not going to play with dollars anymore.  We are simply leaving the dollar system.’  If the Russians are able to do this, if China, India, and Brazil go along with it, then you will have removed a lot of the international payment system from dependancy on the dollar.  This will also severely undermine the American SWIFT international payment system.  So this could produce a run on the U.S. dollar.

Valutan i Ukraina faller fritt

Publicerad 2014-04-15 12:44:32 i Ekonomi,

Since the beginning of the year, the Hryvnia has fallen from 8.26 to the US dollar, to 13.16 to the US dollar, a decline of 37.2%

On Monday, the Ukraine central bank pulled out the bazooka with amassive set of rate hikes.

Kiev’s central bank raised the benchmark discount rate from 6.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent and the overnight loan rate from 7.5 per cent to 14.5 per cent on Monday night.

Negativ GOFO ger högre guldpris

Publicerad 2014-04-15 12:23:31 i Ekonomi,

This can be seen on the chart below. Since negative GOFO became the new normal in July of last year, the is a clear correlation between negative GOFO and rising prices. There is also a clear pattern of positive GOFO and falling prices. (Click the chart to expand it. Green rectangles are periods of negative GOFO. Red rectangles are periods of positive GOFO.)

Richard Russell anser att silvret är världens bästa köp.

Publicerad 2014-04-15 12:14:45 i Ekonomi,

Silver is now dirt cheap and is beginning to trend up.  Personally I have been buying US silver Eagles for myself.  If it can reach 21, silver will have hurdled both of its moving averages.

 

My advice, as it has been, is to move to the sidelines while holding large positions in physical silver and gold.  Regardless of what the markets do, silver and gold represent eternal wealth, and the bid to sleep undisturbed at night.  No amount of money is worth the loss of peace of mind.  The power of gold opened the American West and populated Alaska. Men have spent their lives searching for gold.  You can own gold by the simple action of swapping Federal Reserve notes for the yellow metal.  I advise you to do it.”

Är det toppen för Dow och samtidigt botten för silvret.

Publicerad 2014-04-15 11:58:41 i Ekonomi,

So, if we look at the Dow chart again (below), one can see that the silver peaks of the 70s and 30s occurred when the Dow was trading closer to the lower levels of its range. Currently, the Dow is trading at all-time high levels. If the Dow is currently having a “real deal” rally, then it means we are going to have to wait a long time before silver has its real rally.

Macrotrends.org_Dow_Jones_100_Year_Historical_Chart edited 3

However, if the Dow is just having a fake rally, then silver will spike as soon as the Dow’s fall gathers steam, and possibly peaks when the Dow hits a level indicated on the chart, as a minimum. One, therefore, has to decide whether this Dow rally is real or fake.

The New Economy Index (NEI) är helt klart på väg ned vilket innebär att FED gör åtstramningar i en vikande ekonomi.

Publicerad 2014-04-14 11:31:15 i Ekonomi,

The New Economy Index (NEI) is on the brink of sending its first confirmed “sell” signal in four years. 

The index is a blend of the leading U.S. retail and business service stocks.  NEI is based on the concept that these component stocks are accurate reflections of changes within the real-time U.S. economy (as opposed to the lagging economic statistics favored by the Labor Bureau). 

Except for a brief period in the spring of 2010, NEI has confirmed a firming economic picture for U.S. retailers since 2009.  As you can see in the following graph, though, the index has made a series of lower highs and lows – the first in well over two years.  Moreover, the important 12-week moving average (red line) has crossed below the 20-week MA (black line) and both moving averages are in the process of decisively turning down. 

 

Alasdair Macleod från GoldMoney om guldet och silvret under veckan

Publicerad 2014-04-11 15:52:49 i Ekonomi,

Gold and silver prices gained modestly over the week, during which the latest FOMC minutes were released. These were generally read to be more dovish compared with the previous month.

FOMC members appear from the minutes to be confused. The previous month's conclusion, that if it wasn't for the weather the economy is improving and so interest rates will increase a little earlier than expected, is replaced with renewed anxiety about the outlook now the weather has improved. And who can blame them: after QE1, 2 and 3, some iffy numbers like unemployment have fallen, but where's the price inflation? The overriding concern for all central bankers is still the prospect of deflation.

As an aside the numbers behind the Fiat Money Quantity were released this morning, and they have risen a further $135bn, dismissing any thoughts that tapering QE might be the problem. It's not, because monetary inflation is continuing regardless.
Last Friday I wrote about the divergence in open interest between gold and silver. This has continued into this week and is really unusual. First, gold's chart:

gold chart

The low point for gold's open interest was last Friday, when gold was already four days into its rally. This signals very low levels of speculative interest: the last seller has turned off the lights and left the building. Therefore, gold appears to have built a short-term base under $1300.

Silver's chart is chalk to gold's cheese.

silver chart

In this case attempts by market-makers to shake out the bulls have been met by solid demand with open interest rising strongly. The exception is the Money Managers category, which suffers frequent and dramatic changes of mind. The chart below shows the dramatic volatility in Money Managers' short positions.

mm silver shorts

The long-term average of Money Managers' shorts before 2013 was 6,130 contracts, yet in the last five weeks they have increased them by nearly 16,000 contracts. This increase in shorts should have allowed the bullion banks to reduce their short positions. Not so: according to the most recent Bank Participation Report they are net short of a total of 35,321 contracts, an increase of over 3,000 contracts last month.

Unlike gold, where Comex volume is moderate, silver volume is high indicating very strong support at current levels. The obvious conclusion is that bullion banks trying to balance their silver books cannot do so at current prices. Yet higher prices are likely to trigger a vicious bear squeeze, so it appears the bullion banks with short silver positions will remain trapped either way.

 

Guldet är klart undervärderat enligt bifogade charts

Publicerad 2014-04-11 13:36:46 i Ekonomi,

This chart compares gold to the US monetary base.The interpretation is that gold is cheaper than at any time during the past 100 years!The current reading is 0.4!When it climbs back to the 4.0 zone, (10 times today’s gold price), it will be time to sell gold and look for something else.
This chart confirms the fact that gold is very cheap at this moment compares the current gold price to the purchasing power of a dollar in 1920. Calculates that gold needs to rise to $8750 in today’s dollars to return to what it was worth in 1920.This sets the stage for a continuation of the current gold bullmarket. Silver (not shown) which shows silver would need to rise to $435/ounce to equal its worth in 1920.This price dovetails with the price arrived at by Mr. John Williams at Shadowstats.com. 

Putin varnar Europa om gas leveranser.

Publicerad 2014-04-10 16:51:18 i Ekonomi,

President Vladimir Putin has told European leaders a dispute over Ukraine's gas debt to Russia could affect supplies of Russian gas to Europe and proposed urgent discussions on the matter, his spokesman said on Thursday.

The remarks were the strongest sign yet that Russia could curtail supplies of gas to Ukraine, which could increase tension between Moscow and Kiev and aggravate the worst crisis in East-West ties since the Cold War.

"The situation is urgent," Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said after Putin sent a letter expressing deep concern about Ukraine's $2.2 billion gas debt and warning of a possible impact on the transit of Russian gas to the European Union.

In the letter, Putin proposed "mechanisms of dialogue for urgent discussions of the situation that has developed," Peskov said. He did not give any details about the proposal or say which leaders were addressed.

 

Silver på väg mot betydligt högre höjder

Publicerad 2014-04-10 14:44:04 i Ekonomi,

Assuming this bull market is not over, the next move in silver should total somewhere between 288% and 495%.  If we split it down the middle, the next gain from the current level would be roughly 390%.  If $18.10 was in fact the bottom for silver, that would translate into an astonishing price of $88.69!  The $100 price target below represents an advance of 450%.  A remarkable move in the price of silver to $100 would look like this (see chart below):
Again, this type of move would not be extreme because it reveals how violent advances and declines in the silver market have been up to now.  If you also consider that silver is now at the most oversold level in history (see bottom indicator in the chart below), the rally from these depressed levels should be stunning.  Another interesting formation to watch is the possible flag pattern (highlighted below):
 

Är det Yuanen som blir nästa reserv valuta

Publicerad 2014-04-09 15:30:18 i Ekonomi,

As we have discussed numerous times, nothing lasts forever - especially reserve currencies [10] - no matter how much one hopes that the status-quo remains so, in the end the exuberant previlege is extorted just one too many times. Headline after headlines shows nations declaring 'interest' or direct discussions in diversifying away from the US dollar... and as SCMP reports [11], Standard Chartered notes that at least 40 central banks have invested in the Yuan and several more are preparing to do so. The trend is occurring across both emerging markets and developed nation central banks diversifiying into 'other currencies' and "a great number of central banks are in the process of adding yuan to their portfolios." Perhaps most ominously, for king dollar, is the former-IMF manager's warning that "The Yuan may become a de facto reserve currency before it is fully convertible."

The infamous chart that shows nothing lasts forever...

Nothing lasts forever... (especially in light of China's recent comments [12])

Små företagarna i USA drar ned på planerade ny anställningar.

Publicerad 2014-04-09 11:00:56 i Ekonomi,

Having hit their most hopeful levels in seven years in January, small business hiring plans have collapsed at the fastest rate since Lehman in the ensuring 2 months. Despite the headlines proclaiming the modest rise and beat in the headline NFIB data, capex spending plans dropped and hiring expectations dropped to lows seen 11 months ago. We can only assume the small businesses are expecting more winter storms through the spring…

John Williams ser inte den ekonomiska tillväxten som hela tiden utlovas.

Publicerad 2014-04-09 10:58:02 i Ekonomi,

The latest from John Williams’ www.ShadowStats.com.

- Economic Reality versus Illusion: No Recovery, Just Plunge, Stagnation and Renewed Plunge 
- Re-Intensifying Downturn Already Underway 
- Confluence of Negative Surprises, Including New Business and Systemic Woes, Should Hit U.S. Dollar and Spike Inflation 
- Hyperinflation to Intensify Unfolding Depression 
- Gold as a Store-of-Wealth and Safe-Haven Remains Primary Hedge for Maintaining Purchasing Power of Wealth and Assets

Indien fortsätter köpa silver

Publicerad 2014-04-08 18:34:47 i Ekonomi,

2013 Indian net silver import broke all records at 6016 metric tonnes. The Indian gross monthly import average in 2013 was 512 metric tonnes. In January 2014 gross silver import was 461 metric tonnes, down 44 % m/m, up 51 % y/y.

Från Jim Rickards Blogg

Publicerad 2014-04-08 15:26:35 i Ekonomi,

Why the Gold of Countries is Not Safe in New York

 
"I think it’s not safe. It is physically safe, but the US government might steal it. If you have a financial panic and there is a collapse of the dollar, and the US government sees a need to back the dollar with gold to restore trust, there is a risk that the US will confiscate that gold. The US government would add that to the US gold supply, create a new gold backed dollar, turn to the countries (whether the Netherlands, Italy or France) with a certificate and say they could get their gold back in the new system. That’s what I mean with re-writing the rules of the game."
 

Richard Russell anser att silvret är mer köpvärt än guldet just nu.

Publicerad 2014-04-08 14:51:52 i Ekonomi,

Below we see the silver/gold ratio.  And what's this?  The ratio has turned up in favor of silver.  I encourage subscribers to take actual physical positions in silver.  I think something is quietly brewing in silver.  Buy the “monster” pack of 500 ounces of silver.  The pack comes in a special green box, put out and packed by the US Treasury.

 

Här har det vänt förut.

Publicerad 2014-04-08 10:20:00 i Ekonomi,

According to this chart from JPM the market's forward P/E ratio now is precisely 15.2x. What was it at precisely the last bubble peak on October 9, 2007? 15.2x.

Everyone knows what happened next.

Source: JPM

Vad händer i bank världen. Många mystiska dödsfall den senaste tiden.

Publicerad 2014-04-07 17:04:53 i Ekonomi,

Over the weekend the world was gripped by the drama surrounding the mysterious murder-homicide [6]of the former CEO of Dutch bank ABN Amro and members of his family, and whether there is more foul play than meets the eye. However, that is nothing compared to what just happened in the tiny, and all too quiet Principality of Lichtenstein, where moments ago the CEO of local financial institution Bank Frick & Co. AG, Juergen Frick, was shot dead in the underground garage of the bank located in the city of Balzers.
 
 
 

Saxat från Kingworldnews

Publicerad 2014-04-07 11:50:53 i Ekonomi,

There is a war taking place in the gold market right now at a very key level.  The price of gold held above the 30-week moving average last week (shown below).  More importantly, gold hit the 20-week moving average and turned higher.  I firmly believe the 20-week (MA) will be a key level to watch if the bull market accelerates.

 

 

In the first phase of gold’s bull market, the 70-week moving average was the major support level.  Gold stayed above that key moving average until the collapse in the global markets in 2008.  After 2008, the 30-week moving average became key support (shown on the left hand side of the above chart).  If the gold market is in fact going into an accelerated up-move, the 20-week moving average may be the key support level to watch.  Despite the pullback, I believe the latest action in gold is a sign that we are in a new bull market, and the target for 2016 is $3,500 for gold.  This would mean a roughly $2,300 advance in gold, which would look like this (see below):

 

Jobb marknaden tar inte fart fast vintern börjar ta slut och snön smälter i samma takt som ekonomin.

Publicerad 2014-04-04 15:08:15 i Ekonomi,

Here are the key numbers: March payrolls +192K, below the 200K expected (LaVorgna 275K). This was a drop from the upward revised February print of 197K. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7%, and above the 6.6% expected. The participation rate rose modestly from 63.0% to 63.2% as the labor force rose by 500K to 156,226 while the people not in the labor force declined by over 300K to 91,030. Manufacturing jobs had the largest drop since July. The number of unemployed rose 27K to 10,486K.  Conclusion: it snowed in March too, but judging by the perfectly expected stock reaction, it snowed in a good way

Alasdair Macleod från GoldMoney anser att efterfrågan på guld från Kina är betydligt högre än tidigare beräknat.

Publicerad 2014-04-04 12:56:44 i Ekonomi,

Western gold flows to China

We are now in a position to estimate Chinese demand and supply factors in a global context. The result is summarised in the table below.

Global demand and supply

Chinese demand before 2013 had arrived at a plateau, admittedly higher than generally realised, before expanding dramatically following last April's price drop. Taking the WGC's figures for the Rest of the World gives us new global demand figures, which throw up a shortfall amounting to 9,461 tonnes since the Lehman crisis, satisfied from existing above-ground stocks.

This figure, though shocking to those unaware of these stock flows, could well be conservative, because we have only been able to address SGE deliveries, vaulted gold and Hong Kong net flows. Missing from our calculations is Chinese government purchases in London, demand from the ultra-rich not routed through the SGE, and gold held by Chinese nationals abroad. It is also likely that demand from the Chinese diaspora in SE Asia and Asian is also underestimated by western analysts.

There are assumptions in this analysis that should be clear to all. But if it only serves to expose the futility of attempts in western capital markets to manage the gold price, the exercise has been worthwhile. For much of 2013 commentators routinely stated that Asian demand was satisfied from ETF redemptions. But as can be seen, ETF sales totalling 881 tonnes covered only one quarter of the west's shortfall against China, the rest coming mostly from central bank vaults. Anecdotal evidence from Switzerland is that the four major refiners have been working round-the-clock turning LBMA 400 ounce bars into one kilo 9999 bars for China. They are even working with gold bars that are battered and dusty, which suggests the west is not only digging into deep storage to satisfy Chinese demand at current prices, but digging a hole for itself as well.

Alasdair Macleod från GoldMoney om guldet och silvret under veckan

Publicerad 2014-04-04 12:52:17 i Ekonomi,

The gold price continued last week's fall into Monday, which was the end of the first quarter of 2014. Since then having reached a low point of $1278 in New York trading, gold rallied to a high of $1294 on Tuesday before weakening on Thursday morning.

The biggest influence was not stories and announcements, but the market-makers' attempts to reduce their exposure by the quarter-end. This can be clearly seen in the chart of gold and open interest below.

Gold

The rise on open interest peaked with the gold price three weeks ago. This indicates that buying interest since early February was being accommodated by an increase in market-makers' short positions, instead of being met by genuine sellers, hardly a surprise. Shorts were also closing their positions by transferring them to the market-makers, aka bullion banks. And when there was no follow-through as a result of the Crimean situation, these market makers had to reduce their commitments ahead of their quarter-end report date, 31st March.

The result is open interest has contracted from a rich 427,774 contracts on 17th March to 363,451 contracts on 1st April, the lowest open interest since May 2009, and this week Comex volume has fallen from over 335,523 contracts a week last Thursday to a low of 106,729 yesterday. This tells us that interest in Comex gold is now as low as it is likely to get and further attempts by the market-makers to close short positions are unlikely to succeed.

Silver provides an interesting contrast, with open interest remaining stubbornly high and rising.

 Silver

The test for silver will come when traders decide whether or not to roll their May contract positions. Until then it appears that rather than be shaken out by falling prices the bulls have held on, increasing their positions on falling prices.

Underlying demand for physical gold remains strong. China so far this year has delivered nearly 560 tonnes to its public, and I believe is building vaulted gold stocks for gold account customers at a similar rate. I publish an analysis of China's gold buying this weekend, which I urge GoldMoney customers to read. The conclusion is that far larger quantities of gold are flowing from western vaults to China and Asia than I originally thought. The implication is that the suppliers of this physical, which can only be western central banks, are on course to run out of leasable gold, unless the price is allowed to rise sufficiently to reduce this demand.

GOFO rate för guld är nu negativ villket är mycket positivt för guldpriset.

Publicerad 2014-04-04 09:31:13 i Ekonomi,

 
 GOFO goldprice
 
 In the above chart I made the negative GOFO periods grey. The gold price (right axis) tends to go up in these periods. If GOFO persist to trend lower it’s very likely the price of gold will rise. When we look back a couple of years, we can see that every time GOFO dipped in negative territory a strong bull market in gold followed. I expect to see the same in coming years.
 
 
 
 

Richard Russel hos Kingworldnews

Publicerad 2014-04-03 14:59:14 i Ekonomi,

Nothing appears to frighten this market -- not Putin, not higher interest rates, not a cessation of quantitative easing. ...Happily I don't manage other people's money, and this allows me to take an unusual stance.  I don't gamble in Vegas, and I don't play poker with private local groups.  I have what I need and I'm satisfied with what I have.  Physical gold equals pure wealth, and I'm satisfied to sit with my physical gold position.  Each day millions of words are written, in an effort to uncover the current trend of the market.  So far the market appears to be in a strange and eerie stalemate.

Although markets appear stable, experts list seven things that could go wrong: the first is that payrolls could slip, the Crimean situation could unravel, China could slow down, the US dollar index could fall to 78 or lower, inflation could heat up, and gold and silver could start to surge.  Lastly, interest rates could suddenly rise, as they levitate to protect the dollar.  I continue to advise a position in physical silver and gold as the best and sanest stance in today's nervous and erratic markets.

Insiders säljer i Facebook

Publicerad 2014-04-03 14:22:13 i Ekonomi,

Why has Facebook’s COO Sheryl Sandberg sold more than half the shares she owned when the social network went public just two years ago?

Now admittedly her holding of 17.2 million shares is now worth just over $1 billion, so she is hardly running away from the company. But the obvious conclusion is that one of the key members of staff at the social network agrees with those who think it’s become massively overvalued.

Ultimate insider sale

This is the ultimate insider sale by somebody privy to the very best information about her key investment. The smart money gets out before valuations crash, not after it.

Has she sold too soon? Inevitably if she has been offloading stock over a prolonged period that is now the case. Then again what will the ‘real’ value of Facebook when the hype is all stripped away and the business has to be valued like any other?

Indeed, can it maintain its lofty position? It is just another media dependent on advertising and if the eyeballs move elsewhere so will the profits.

Sentimentet för guld har sjunkit snabbt och närmar sig nu botten där guld skall köpas.

Publicerad 2014-04-03 10:16:17 i Ekonomi,

One way to prepare is to keep an eye on sentiment.  Among gold sentiment indicators, Mark Hulbert’s HGNSI (Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index) is right up there in value with respect to gauging when the time is right to be bullish or bearish on gold.  In his latest report, Hulbert shows an HGNSI that is dropping toward – but not yet fully settled at – a bullish backdrop for gold. 
hgnsi

Från Eric Sprotts blogg

Publicerad 2014-04-01 17:23:35 i Ekonomi,

The Big Time Bomb is Derivatives and Leverage in the Banking System

 
"They don’t want any bank to start the liquidation process because that’s when we find out what things are really worth, and they are not going to be worth anything compared to what the banks have on the books.

So the big time bomb is derivatives and leverage in the banking system. We keep getting these comments out of Europe that some country has got to raise $25 billion to boost the capital of the banks. This is in an environment where the paper assets have been allowed to appreciate. Imagine a situation where they start depreciating.

The leverage is just way too high and to me that’s always been the lingering huge fear. We could throw in wars, continuing economic decline, which I think we are having, but a bank collapse would be by far the biggest item in terms of how it would affect the financial markets, and in particular in how it would just blow interest into the precious metals area."

Guldet mot en fördubbling

Publicerad 2014-04-01 09:24:46 i Ekonomi,

King World News note:  If you look at Turk’s astonishing chart above, it reveals that gold and the S&P 500 have essentially tracked the increase in the Fed’s balance sheet over a period of many years.  This remained the case until Western central planners made the decision to intervene in and manipulate the gold market in a much more aggressive manner.  As the chart above clearly illustrates, what they have done to the price of gold is totally unsustainable, but it is breathtaking to look at the distortion in the very short-run.

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Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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