USA börsen har idag ett värde som motsvarar 203% av BNP ungefär samma som innan bubblan sprack 2000. 1929 innan den bubblan sprack var motsvarande värde 87%.
USA har idag ett högre Misery index än 1929 och man har samma utveckling när det gäller omsättningen av pengar. Ingen framtidstro ingen ökning av velocity. Trycka penger hjälper inte vilket FED kanske börjar förstå.
If you compare what's going on today to what happened in the late 1920s just prior to the Great Depression, there's a very striking resemblance.
Världen är upp och ned då man placerar pengar i 30 år och får en ränta som är lägre än den reala tillväxten. Någonting är fel antingen räntemarknaden eller den ekonomiska utvecklingen.
Återköp av aktier har drivit börsen till nya toppnoteringar, möjligen börjar vi se en minskning då skulderna har stigit kraftigt
Der är nu rekord mycket pengar allokerade till aktiemarknaden. När nästan alla är där vad är det då som skall få den att gå vidare. Börsen är ju dessutom klart övervärderad.
Med mycket låg tillväxt har vi en värdering för price/sales som är högre 2007 och endast var högre 2000. Då skall det noteras att man hade förhoppningar om en klart mycket högre tillväxt än vad man har idag.
Det har tryckts många nya dollar som måste ta vägen någonstans när dollarn tappar reservvaluta status.
Räntekurvan planar ut medans börsen fortsätter upp vilket inte är hållbart. Antigen skall börsen ner eller så skall räntekurvan bli brantare.
Dom som skuldsätter sig mest i USA är studenterna och inte undra på det med denna prisutveckling för skolböcker.
Fler och fler lever på bidrag i USA och samtidigt är det en mindre andel av befolkningen som arbetar.
USAs budgetunderskott är nu större än vad FED trycker nya pengar vilket medför mindre överlikviditet till maknaderna.
Skulderna ökar samtidigt som priset för lånade pengar går ned. Men nu är vi på noll ränta och skulderna fortsätter. Detta kan inte få ett trevligt slut.
Greyerz berättar för Kingworldnews om den planerade folkomröstningen i Schweitz. Guld eller inte guld. Spännande då det kan vara en game changer för guldet.
Halting Swiss gold sales is the first part of the initiative. The second is that all Swiss gold is to be repatriated back to Switzerland. The third part of this initiative is that Switzerland must keep 20 percent of its assets in physical gold.
But, Eric, this initiative is not backed by the Swiss Parliament or the Swiss National Bank. Instead, the people of Switzerland have been backing this movement. Because over 100,000 people pushed for this initiative, there will now be a referendum on November 30th of this year.
Of course we don’t know what the outcome will be, and the Swiss National Bank and the government are against the initiative because it puts an end to their ability to print money and manipulate markets. And of course most governments act against gold in the paper market. This would all come to an end for Switzerland.
Most importantly, the Swiss gold has most likely already been leased out and sold into the market. With virtually no gold left in Western central banks vaults, we know that the manipulation in the paper gold market is living on borrowed time. And once holders of paper gold ask for delivery, gold will rise to multiples of the current price.”
Gold drifted lower this week, with the price undermined by lack of interest on low volume and a slightly more hawkish tone in the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday. The chart below, of gold and open interest on Comex, shows how the price has declined while open interest has hardly budged from its historically low level.
The dollar's strength was fuelled by the FOMC's minutes, which recognise that the improvement in the labour market has been somewhat better than expected. Even though the Committee downgraded its expectations for GDP growth slightly, analysts view the improvement in unemployment numbers as more important. Sterling had been benefiting recently from the same story until Mark Carney at the BoE seized upon the fall in average earnings cum-bonuses as an excuse to defuse expectations of an early rise in interest rates.
Whatever the hawks say, central bankers are unlikely to bring forward an increase in interest rates until price inflation rises towards mandated targets. At the moment it is trending the other way. Janet Yellen is due to speak at the Jackson Hole meeting later today, and it is thought likely that she will dampen down speculation on this topic. Both Carney and Yellen have a delicate problem: an improving economy will lead to higher interest rates and therefore losses in bonds with adverse consequences for those banks which are heavily invested; alternatively a declining economy will also hit the banks as bad debts rise. Therefore it is natural for them to keep rates as they are for as long as possible.
In other gold news, Russia's central bank announced the acquisition of a further 300,000 ounces of gold, taking their holding to over 1,100 tonnes. This is double the amount of previous purchases, and should raise the question as to why Russia has accelerated her purchases.
Silver is behaving somewhat differently. While gold was down over 1% yesterday, silver closed unchanged. This relative strength suggests there is an underlying shortage of physical, and a price premium of about 7% in Shanghai confirms it. Open interest on Comex is also rising on every price fall and it now stands at the highest level since February 2008, shown in the chart below.
This morning with the dollar slightly easier precious metals opened in Europe on a firmer note, awaiting Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole.
"There is an interesting phenomenon occurring in the financial markets that absolutely, positively, will not last indefinitely – the 'Giant Shrinking Correction.'The chart below shows the S&P 500 (weekly closing data) since the beginning of 2009, with all relevant corrections identified in terms of percentage.
Asiatiska centralbanker gillar guld men guldpriset har slutat att följa den ökade efterfrågan. Frågan är hur länge till kan man trycka ned priset för att stödja fiat valutorna.
PMI Kina sämre än väntat men för Japan var det bättre än väntat vilket är märkligt när statistiken har varit klart sämre.
Den globala tillväxten skrivs ned, oljan kopparn och räntan hänger med ned men börsen går i taket. Pyramidspel eller.
Any day, week, month, year now... Japan's adjusted trade balance missed expectations by the most since October 2013 (back over a JPY1 trillion deficit) as the QQE-ing, j-curve-any-minute-now nation awaits the arrival of the competitive pickup for the 40th month in a row. Exports beat expectations (which we are sure will be the headline crowed about by all) but imports surged by 2.3% (against expectations of a 1.5% drop). It appears you single-handedly devalue yourself to prosperity in an interconnected world after all - whocouldanode? As we said before, "Monetary debasement does NOT result in an economic recovery, because no nation can force another to pay for its recovery."
Är FED fel ute med alldeles för låg ränta i förhållande till FIG. Den låga räntan under 2002-2005 lade grunden för husbubblan i USA och har FED nu lagt grunden för börsbubblan.
Inflationsförväntningarna är på väg ned vilket också märks på Råvaruindex som handlas på samma nivå som för 68 veckor sedan
I shall come to this important event later in this market report; but first, our customary look at this week's trading. From Monday through Wednesday the gold price found firm support at the $1305 level before gaining a few bucks to $1313 by close of play last night.
The new silver fix
This is the huge problem with Fracking shale oil and gas. Due to the extremely high annual decline rates of the typical shale oil or gas well, companies must continue to spend a great deal of capital expenditures to replace what was lost. It’s known as the DRILLING TREADMILL…. once you start, you can’t get off.
As the article states, in one year the top 127 oil and gas companies spent $110 billion more on capital expenditures than they received from operations. So, they acquired $106 billion in additional debt (a large percentage through the Junk Bond Market) and sold assets to make up the difference.
Vi ser nu en gradvis förflyttning av ekonomin från väst till öst. Petrodollarns fall kommer att skynda på processen.
Är vi på väg in i en recession eller skall tillväxten ta fart. Av nedanstående chart ser det helt klart ut som vi är på väg nedåt.
Dollarn tar varje dag ett steg närmare slutet som världens handelsvaluta. Snart kommer förmodligen Saudiarabien med samma uttalande.
President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday Russia should aim to sell its oil and gas for roubles globally because the dollar monopoly in energy trade was damaging Russia's economy.
"We should act carefully. At the moment we are trying to agree with some countries to trade in national currencies," Putin said during a visit to the Crimea region, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine earlier this year.
"It is just a matter of time" before this battle comes to a head.
At some point, the U.S. economy will experience "an earthquake in the form of either a deeper depression [from deflation] or higher inflation, as one force rapidly and unexpected overwhelms the other."
Which one will win? And what are the potential outcomes? Rickards goes over each of those in his book...
Inflation is the easy one to understand...
For the most part, the government creates this one... by "printing" trillions of dollars.
Deflation is less easy to understand...
For starters, we "have no living memory of it." The last episode of persistent deflation was in the Great Depression. Rickards calls deflation "the Federal Reserve's worst nightmare." For one, deflation "increases the value of government debt, making it harder to repay."
Because of fear of deflation, the Fed can't stop its money printing. If it did stop, "deflation would quickly dominate the economy, with disastrous consequences for the national debt, government revenue, and the banking system."
Which will win – inflation or deflation?
Rickards explains that "the most likely path of Federal Reserve policy in the years ahead is the continuation of massive money printing to fend off deflation." The Fed assumes it can later deal with inflation that it might create.
I agree with him. Governments have proven for centuries that – while they might be pretty bad at most things – one thing they're pretty good at is creating inflation through printing money.
The easy conclusion is that inflation will win... but many times, the easy conclusion isn't necessarily the right one.
In his book, Rickards builds a strong case for how deflation could win as well.
Whether inflation or deflation wins this battle, Rickards makes a strong case for a higher gold price.
If inflation wins, then it will take more paper dollars to buy an ounce of gold. And if deflation wins, then the price of gold will move higher to break that deflation...
The collapse in consumer demand has led to surging sub-prime lending, as evidenced by last week’s ominous announcement that FICO, the nation’s largest credit-scoring company is changing its “methodology” to enable millions of low-income Americans to become “creditworthy.” The chart is a perfect representation of how America’s financial sector – empowered by the Fed’s unaltered “too big to fail” mentality – has ramped up credit card approval rates to 2007’s peak levels, amidst a post-2008 environment in which cash strapped consumers don’t want more credit cards.
In spite of ongoing strong demand for physical metal, silver currently represents only 0.01% of the world’s financial wealth. This is one-twenty-fifth its 1980 level. Even that big price spike we saw in 2011 pales in comparison.
There’s an enormous amount of room for silver to become a greater part of mainstream investment portfolios.
The historical record suggests that buying silver now is a low-risk investment.
Handeln med fysiskt silver sker mer och mer i Shanghai vilket har medfört att lagren av fysiskt silver minskar i rask takt.
Don’t look now, but the SHFE has overtaken the Comex and become the world’s largest futures silver exchange. In fact, the SHFE accounted for 48.6% of all volume last year. The Comex, meanwhile, is in sharp decline, falling from 93.4% market share as recently as 2001 to less than half that amount today.
And all that trading has led to a sharp decrease in silver inventories at the exchange. While most silver (and gold) contracts are settled in cash at the COMEX, the majority of contracts on the Shanghai exchanges are settled in physical metal. Which has led to a huge drain of silver stocks…
Since January 2013, silver inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen a remarkable 84% to a record low 148 tonnes. If this trend continues, the Chinese exchanges will experience a serious supply crunch in the not-too-distant future.
En konvoj på 300 ommålade militärfordon är på väg från Ryssland till östra Ukraina med förnödenheter samtidigt som det står rysk militär vid gränsen.
BORDER WITH UKRAINE WITH TANKS, MISSILE SYSTEMS, WARPLANES AND ATTACK
NATO'S RASMUSSEN SEES "HIGH PROBABILITY" THAT RUSSIA COULD INTERVENE MILITARILY IN EASTERN UKRAINE
He also adds he sees no sign of troop withdrawal. So, despite the market's confidence that it's fixed and Putin has folded, it seems NATO is not so sure. Un-De-Escalation begins.
investors, cash levels in July dropped to the lowest level since 1999 at only
15.8%. Just as this was happening, European markets like DAX 30 have
started a free fall of 10% in only a few weeks, while S&P 500 is also
experiencing the strongest sell off in months. It seems to be that the same old
theme of buying very high and later down the track, most likely panic selling
into an upcoming low, will once again be occurring.”
Precious metals periodically suffer from coordinated bear raids as the commercial shorts try to level their books. That appeared to be the case in recent weeks when the gold price was sold down from $1345 to $1280 last Friday. WTI crude was also sold down through the psychologically important $100 level to under $98. The weakness of energy prices and some of the base metals was the only question mark over an otherwise positive news background for gold and silver.
This week gold enjoyed a sharp recovery from the bear raid, which is illustrated in our first chart.
In shaking out weak holders, Comex open interest collapsed spectacularly to as low as 358,996 contracts on 1st August, the lowest level since May 2009. We won't be able to estimate how much specific categories of commercials were still short on that date until the Commitment of Traders report for last Tuesday is released later tonight; but the indications are swaps, mostly non-US bullion banks, still have collective short positions on the high side.
This is important, because the remaining bulls are obviously resolute, indicated by the sharp upturn in open interest on an equally sharp price gain to $1320 this morning. The signs elsewhere are not good for the shorts either, with physical demand in London appearing to have caught that market on the hop as well. In conclusion, it won't take much to squeeze the remaining shorts and drive the price materially higher.
The silver price has suffered this week. While gold rose 2.3% in a developing bear squeeze, silver actually fell by about 2%. This diverse performance is extremely unusual, and as can be seen in the chart below, silver's open interest has contracted significantly, with only a relatively muted recovery in the last few days.
There are strong signs the bear raid is now over. Firstly, open interest is approaching the late-June lows, from which a 15% rally in the price developed, as shown in the chart. This indicates that virtually all the weak bulls have sold or been stopped out, and so the swaps which are still short now risk being squeezed themselves. Secondly, on this low level of open interest there was exceptional volume on Tuesday when the price turned, and also very good volume on Wednesday, when the bears tried unsuccessfully to push the price lower still. Collectively this market information clearly indicates that the odds now favour a strong rally in the silver price.
Developing conditions between NATO and Russia over the Ukraine could well trigger or exacerbate bear squeeze conditions next week. Energy markets have yet to reflect these uncertainties, as well as the deteriorating situation in Northern Iraq.
Vi är på extrema nivåer. Är den senaste tidens nedgång början på en större eller bara en kortsiktig rekyl.
There's little doubt that current measures of valuations, sentiment, leverage and complacency have reached historic extremes. Many analysts have posted charts depicting these extremes, and perhaps the one that distills well multiple extremes into one metric is Doug Short’s chart of the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted Regression to the Trend, another way of saying mean reversion or reverting to the mean.
I have added two red boxes: one around the peak reached just before the Great Crash of 1929 (81% above the trend line), and one around the current reading (86% above the trend line).
I USA lägger de ner mer företag än vad som startas. Vilken ekonomisk uppgång allt är bara propaganda.
Global annual silver production is approximately 820,000,000 ounces or a bit more than 25,000 metric tons. What does that mean in terms that we can more easily understand?
If the global annual mine production of silver were cast into one large silver pyramid, it would be approximately – wait for it – only 65 feet high on a base of only 65 feet square. Rather tiny! For future reference, this is one “silver pyramid.”