macrogoldsilver.blogg.se

Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Ser ut som vi börjar närma oss nästa härdsmälta

Publicerad 2014-08-28 10:12:21 i Ekonomi,

US stocks look like they are in a bubble similar to 1999 and 2000. Consider the following monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index since 1984. Notice the blue line peaks in 1987, 1994, 2000, 2007, and 2014. A major stock market peak every 7 years deserves our attention, especially since it is peaking along with dollar and bond bubbles (generational low interest rates), massive global QE, geopolitical disasters, foreign policy failures, and the probability of new and devastating wars.
34938 b

Är det något som förändras över tiden

Publicerad 2014-08-27 11:41:42 i Ekonomi,

This cartoon is from the early 18th century---and the person at the center of this is John Law, the infamous Scottish economist.  The French establishment is shown pouring gold and silver coins into his top end---and paper money comes out the other, which people are crowded around to accept.  Nothing much has changed in three centuries, has it?

QE hjälper inte till att få fart på ekonomin bara ökar spekulationerna i samhället

Publicerad 2014-08-27 11:04:40 i Ekonomi,

The following chart shows the relationship since 1929 between the monetary base (per dollar of nominal GDP) and short-term interest rates. This is our variant of what economists call the “liquidity preference curve,” and is one of the strongest relationships between economic variables you’re likely to observe in the real world. After years of quantitative easing, the monetary base now stands at 24% of GDP. Notice that less than 16% was already enough to ensure zero interest rates, so the past trillion and a half dollars of QE have done little but increase the pool of zero-interest assets that are fodder for yield-seeking speculation. Notice also that unless the Fed begins to pay interest to banks on their idle reserves, the Fed would have to contract its balance sheet by about $1 trillion just to raise Treasury bill yields up to a fraction of one percent. So the primary policy tool of the Fed in the next couple of years will likely be changes in interest on reserves (IOR). Get used to that acronym.
 

Greyerz berättar för Kingworldnews om den planerade folkomröstningen i Schweitz. Guld eller inte guld. Spännande då det kan vara en game changer för guldet.

Publicerad 2014-08-22 14:54:00 i Ekonomi,

Greyerz:  “Today I had a meeting with one of the people behind the Swiss Gold Initiative.  His name is Luzi Stamm.  He is a member of the Swiss Parliament and he is also a member of the biggest political party in Switzerland.  He is behind the Swiss Gold Initiative which has three major points....
 

Halting Swiss gold sales is the first part of the initiative.  The second is that all Swiss gold is to be repatriated back to Switzerland.  The third part of this initiative is that Switzerland must keep 20 percent of its assets in physical gold.

 

But, Eric, this initiative is not backed by the Swiss Parliament or the Swiss National Bank.  Instead, the people of Switzerland have been backing this movement.  Because over 100,000 people pushed for this initiative, there will now be a referendum on November 30th of this year. 

 

Of course we don’t know what the outcome will be, and the Swiss National Bank and the government are against the initiative because it puts an end to their ability to print money and manipulate markets.  And of course most governments act against gold in the paper market.  This would all come to an end for Switzerland.

 

Most importantly, the Swiss gold has most likely already been leased out and sold into the market.  With virtually no gold left in Western central banks vaults, we know that the manipulation in the paper gold market is living on borrowed time.  And once holders of paper gold ask for delivery, gold will rise to multiples of the current price.”

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som varit för guld och silver

Publicerad 2014-08-22 14:49:36 i Ekonomi,

Gold drifted lower this week, with the price undermined by lack of interest on low volume and a slightly more hawkish tone in the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday. The chart below, of gold and open interest on Comex, shows how the price has declined while open interest has hardly budged from its historically low level.

Gold Open Interest 22082014
The underlying factor has been dollar strength rather than gold's weakness. Since last Friday the dollar has risen nearly 1% against the euro and pound and 1½% against the yen; so a 2% fall for gold against the dollar is not a big deal. Furthermore oil prices have fallen this week with US crude down nearly 2%.

The dollar's strength was fuelled by the FOMC's minutes, which recognise that the improvement in the labour market has been somewhat better than expected. Even though the Committee downgraded its expectations for GDP growth slightly, analysts view the improvement in unemployment numbers as more important. Sterling had been benefiting recently from the same story until Mark Carney at the BoE seized upon the fall in average earnings cum-bonuses as an excuse to defuse expectations of an early rise in interest rates.

Whatever the hawks say, central bankers are unlikely to bring forward an increase in interest rates until price inflation rises towards mandated targets. At the moment it is trending the other way. Janet Yellen is due to speak at the Jackson Hole meeting later today, and it is thought likely that she will dampen down speculation on this topic. Both Carney and Yellen have a delicate problem: an improving economy will lead to higher interest rates and therefore losses in bonds with adverse consequences for those banks which are heavily invested; alternatively a declining economy will also hit the banks as bad debts rise. Therefore it is natural for them to keep rates as they are for as long as possible.

In other gold news, Russia's central bank announced the acquisition of a further 300,000 ounces of gold, taking their holding to over 1,100 tonnes. This is double the amount of previous purchases, and should raise the question as to why Russia has accelerated her purchases.

Silver is behaving somewhat differently. While gold was down over 1% yesterday, silver closed unchanged. This relative strength suggests there is an underlying shortage of physical, and a price premium of about 7% in Shanghai confirms it. Open interest on Comex is also rising on every price fall and it now stands at the highest level since February 2008, shown in the chart below.
Silver Open Interest 22082014
A significant divergence between open interest and price usually signals a market turn. In this case it appears that users of the metal are taking the opportunity to lock in ultra-low prices. Speculators are likely to return as buyers at the first sign of dollar weakness/gold strength, so the silver price should then rally strongly.

This morning with the dollar slightly easier precious metals opened in Europe on a firmer note, awaiting Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole.

Snart har vi inga rekyler bara uppgång.

Publicerad 2014-08-22 11:56:38 i Ekonomi,


 

"There is an interesting phenomenon occurring in the financial markets that absolutely, positively, will not last indefinitely – the 'Giant Shrinking Correction.'The chart below shows the S&P 500 (weekly closing data) since the beginning of 2009, with all relevant corrections identified in terms of percentage.

SP500-CorrectionSizes-081414

PMI Kina sämre än väntat men för Japan var det bättre än väntat vilket är märkligt när statistiken har varit klart sämre.

Publicerad 2014-08-21 12:03:46 i Ekonomi,

Japan's Manufacturing PMI surged to its highest since March at 52.5 (handily beating expectations of 51.5). Almost the entire suite of subindices were positive except JPY weakness-inspired margin compression as output prices tumbled and input prices surged. All of this in the face of collapsing and disappointing hard data. Meanwhile, China Manufacturing PMI plunged to 51.5, missing by the most on record, as China's apparent 'hard' data shows improvement. 

Över 40 år med fiat pengar i USA

Publicerad 2014-08-20 10:34:43 i Ekonomi,

Category                        1971                                         2014

National Debt (6/30)                $398 Billion                                   $17,600 Billion

Nat. Debt Increase/yr              $27 Billion                                     $894 billion

Middle Class                           Doing okay                                    Poorer

Fort Knox Gold                        Audited 1950s                            Audited 1950s

Japans handelsbalans underskott större än väntat. Hjälper inte att trycka pengar.

Publicerad 2014-08-20 10:01:43 i Ekonomi,

Any day, week, month, year now... Japan's adjusted trade balance missed expectations by the most since October 2013 (back over a JPY1 trillion deficit) as the QQE-ing, j-curve-any-minute-now nation awaits the arrival of the competitive pickup for the 40th month in a row. Exports beat expectations (which we are sure will be the headline crowed about by all) but imports surged by 2.3% (against expectations of a 1.5% drop). It appears you single-handedly devalue yourself to prosperity in an interconnected world after all - whocouldanode? As we said before, "Monetary debasement does NOT result in an economic recovery, because no nation can force another to pay for its recovery."

 

 

Är FED fel ute med alldeles för låg ränta i förhållande till FIG. Den låga räntan under 2002-2005 lade grunden för husbubblan i USA och har FED nu lagt grunden för börsbubblan.

Publicerad 2014-08-18 11:46:48 i Ekonomi,

The following chart comparing the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) target set by the Fed with the Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) clearly illustrates the change in the Fed's tactics over the past two decades. The Future Inflation Gauge is calculated monthly by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) and should really be called the Future CPI Gauge, because it is designed to lead the CPI by about 11 months.

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld & silver

Publicerad 2014-08-15 12:44:24 i Ekonomi,

I shall come to this important event later in this market report; but first, our customary look at this week's trading. From Monday through Wednesday the gold price found firm support at the $1305 level before gaining a few bucks to $1313 by close of play last night.

However, the underlying position is more positive than this limited move suggests, with the Swap category on Comex appearing to be in some difficulty. Swaps are mostly non-market making bullion banks. Their net short position on 5th August was 84,108 contracts, about 30,000 higher than their long term average, and while this may have reduced a little since then there is insufficient liquidity on Comex for them to close this collective net short without driving prices sharply higher. The chart below, which is from the dramatic knock-down in April 2013, shows net swaps are locked into a declining trend while the gold price stubbornly refuses to go any lower.

Gold Swaps 15082014

Obviously, Swaps trade most profitably on the bear tack in a falling market. This is visually represented in the chart by the blue line rising when the yellow line falls, and vice-versa. This clearly worked well until April this year when the gold price failed to respond to changes in the Swaps' net shorts.

The result is Swaps are now net short to an uncomfortable degree with a price that is no longer falling. They have a similar problem in silver and the technical situation is potentially very strong as can be seen in the Open Interest chart below.

Silver Open Interest 15082014

 

Open interest is rallying strongly while the price remains held under $20. This indicates someone or some parties are sitting on the price refusing to let it go higher The next break above $20 could see the price go substantially better. With the new London fix from today, it looks like Canute's attempt to stop an incoming tide of buyers.

 

The new silver fix

 

Later on today the new daily silver fix regime will start. It will be run on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's platform (the Comex people), and supervised by Thompson Reuters. For the first six months access to the fix for observers will be free, so we can all see how it works.
This is a welcome advance on the old silver fix, where bullion banks negotiate the price in secret. This should be positive in the longer-term, because market transparency tends to lead to wider institutional and public participation. We are a long way from a fully transparent market, but at least the veil of dealing secrecy is being lifted a little.
Imagine you are running a hedge fund. You don't deal in gold or silver because the physical market is too opaque. Now we have a visible auction process in silver, which you can watch on-line. You can monitor it for a week or two to get better a feel for how much money is required to move the price. It's not just you, everyone else is also getting interested. Now you can assess your dealing risk far better and will be prepared to deal. And you look forward to the gold market becoming more transparent as well.
To summarise, I believe we are seeing a very important change in bullion markets to the disadvantage of dealers who hide behind OTC opacity.

 

Sanningen om Fracking shale oil & gas.

Publicerad 2014-08-15 11:43:22 i Ekonomi,

US-oil-gas-drillers-cashflows_2010-2014

This is the huge problem with Fracking shale oil and gas.  Due to the extremely high annual decline rates of the typical shale oil or gas well, companies must continue to spend a great deal of capital expenditures to replace what was lost.  It’s known as the DRILLING TREADMILL…. once you start, you can’t get off.

As the article states, in one year the top 127 oil and gas companies spent $110 billion more on capital expenditures than they received from operations.  So, they acquired $106 billion in additional debt (a large percentage through the Junk Bond Market) and sold assets to make up the difference.

Vi ser nu en gradvis förflyttning av ekonomin från väst till öst. Petrodollarns fall kommer att skynda på processen.

Publicerad 2014-08-15 11:34:06 i Ekonomi,

WorldEconomy
The structural shift from the West to the East is underway and long-term we will see the loss of USA economic power over global financial markets only when there are deeper markets in Asia and the dollar loses its reserve status. Then we will see the decline and fall of the United States and the rise of China as the new Financial Capital of the World. Ultimately, the US dollar will lose its power to China and the very decision the Obama Administration are making today with the sanctions against Russia will be the tipping point in history. We will see that not just Russia shifts to China, but an increasing number of countries will start to do the same. The Obama Administration and its abuse of the NSA, IRS, and CIA, has displayed to the world its arrogance and that is precisely the same reason Athens lost its Empire in ancient times. All of its allies eventually turned against Athens because of its arrogance. Obama has unleashed the NSA upon the world and we are seeing the very same historical trend unfold.
Petro-dollar-5

Dollarn tar varje dag ett steg närmare slutet som världens handelsvaluta. Snart kommer förmodligen Saudiarabien med samma uttalande.

Publicerad 2014-08-14 15:40:11 i Ekonomi,

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday Russia should aim to sell its oil and gas for roubles globally because the dollar monopoly in energy trade was damaging Russia's economy.

 

"We should act carefully. At the moment we are trying to agree with some countries to trade in national currencies," Putin said during a visit to the Crimea region, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine earlier this year.

 

putin says the petrodollar must die,

 

Saxat från Jim Rickards blogg

Publicerad 2014-08-13 12:11:44 i Ekonomi,

"The world is witnessing a climactic battle between deflation and inflation," Jim Rickards writes in his excellent new book The Death of Money.
"It is just a matter of time" before this battle comes to a head.
At some point, the U.S. economy will experience "an earthquake in the form of either a deeper depression [from deflation] or higher inflation, as one force rapidly and unexpected overwhelms the other."
Which one will win? And what are the potential outcomes? Rickards goes over each of those in his book...
Inflation is the easy one to understand...
For the most part, the government creates this one... by "printing" trillions of dollars.
Deflation is less easy to understand...
For starters, we "have no living memory of it." The last episode of persistent deflation was in the Great Depression. Rickards calls deflation "the Federal Reserve's worst nightmare." For one, deflation "increases the value of government debt, making it harder to repay."
Because of fear of deflation, the Fed can't stop its money printing. If it did stop, "deflation would quickly dominate the economy, with disastrous consequences for the national debt, government revenue, and the banking system."

Which will win – inflation or deflation?
Rickards explains that "the most likely path of Federal Reserve policy in the years ahead is the continuation of massive money printing to fend off deflation." The Fed assumes it can later deal with inflation that it might create.

I agree with him. Governments have proven for centuries that – while they might be pretty bad at most things – one thing they're pretty good at is creating inflation through printing money.
The easy conclusion is that inflation will win... but many times, the easy conclusion isn't necessarily the right one.
In his book, Rickards builds a strong case for how deflation could win as well.
Whether inflation or deflation wins this battle, Rickards makes a strong case for a higher gold price.
If inflation wins, then it will take more paper dollars to buy an ounce of gold. And if deflation wins, then the price of gold will move higher to break that deflation...

Kan guldet gå igenom dollar 1340

Publicerad 2014-08-12 16:08:34 i Ekonomi,

The chart below shows gold breaking out above its two moving averages. Note that the formation is a head-and-shoulder bottom, and a huge breakout will occur if gold closes above 1340.

KWN Russell III 8-12-2014.jpg

För att hålla köpfesten igång kan nu icke kreditvärdiga konsumenter få ett kreditkort.

Publicerad 2014-08-12 16:00:57 i Ekonomi,

Chart-of-the-Month.png

The collapse in consumer demand has led to surging sub-prime lending, as evidenced by last week’s ominous announcement that FICO, the nation’s largest credit-scoring company is changing its “methodology” to enable millions of low-income Americans to become “creditworthy.”  The chart is a perfect representation of how America’s financial sector – empowered by the Fed’s unaltered “too big to fail” mentality – has ramped up credit card approval rates to 2007’s peak levels, amidst a post-2008 environment in which cash strapped consumers don’t want more credit cards.

Silvrets andel av världens förmögenheter är endast ca 0,01%

Publicerad 2014-08-12 11:30:09 i Ekonomi,

Another indicator of silver’s potential is how much it represents of global financial wealth, compared to its percentage when silver hit $50 in 1980.

In spite of ongoing strong demand for physical metal, silver currently represents only 0.01% of the world’s financial wealth. This is one-twenty-fifth its 1980 level. Even that big price spike we saw in 2011 pales in comparison.

There’s an enormous amount of room for silver to become a greater part of mainstream investment portfolios.

Handeln med fysiskt silver sker mer och mer i Shanghai vilket har medfört att lagren av fysiskt silver minskar i rask takt.

Publicerad 2014-08-12 11:24:23 i Ekonomi,

Silver market trading volumes rose sharply last year, mostly a result of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) initiating overnight trading.

Don’t look now, but the SHFE has overtaken the Comex and become the world’s largest futures silver exchange. In fact, the SHFE accounted for 48.6% of all volume last year. The Comex, meanwhile, is in sharp decline, falling from 93.4% market share as recently as 2001 to less than half that amount today.

And all that trading has led to a sharp decrease in silver inventories at the exchange. While most silver (and gold) contracts are settled in cash at the COMEX, the majority of contracts on the Shanghai exchanges are settled in physical metal. Which has led to a huge drain of silver stocks…

Since January 2013, silver inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen a remarkable 84% to a record low 148 tonnes. If this trend continues, the Chinese exchanges will experience a serious supply crunch in the not-too-distant future.

Är 3,5 miljoner nya jobb i USA bara påhittade?

Publicerad 2014-08-11 11:45:09 i Ekonomi,

Since Lehman, or starting in 2009, the Birth/Death adjustment alone has added over 3.5 million jobs. Or rather "jobs", because these are not actual jobs - these are BLS estimates for how many jobs newly-formed businesses have created based purely on statistical estimations and hypotheses that the US economy in 2014 is as it was in 1960. Which means that the traditional dynamics used behind the Birth and Death adjustment are now merely Dead, and US employment is overestimated by as much as three and a half million jobs!

Vi har varit här förut och kommer hamna i samma läge som efter dom senaste topparna.

Publicerad 2014-08-11 11:11:50 i Ekonomi,

According to the recent AAII Asset Allocation Survey by retail
investors, cash levels in July dropped to the lowest level since 1999 at only
15.8%. 
Just as this was happening, European markets like DAX 30 have
started a free fall of 10% in only a few weeks, while S&P 500 is also
experiencing the strongest sell off in months. It seems to be that the same old
theme of buying very high and later down the track, most likely panic selling
into an upcoming low, will once again be occurring.”
AAII-Cash-Allocations

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2014-08-08 14:31:44 i Ekonomi,

Precious metals periodically suffer from coordinated bear raids as the commercial shorts try to level their books. That appeared to be the case in recent weeks when the gold price was sold down from $1345 to $1280 last Friday. WTI crude was also sold down through the psychologically important $100 level to under $98. The weakness of energy prices and some of the base metals was the only question mark over an otherwise positive news background for gold and silver.

This week gold enjoyed a sharp recovery from the bear raid, which is illustrated in our first chart.

Gold Open Interest 08082014

 

In shaking out weak holders, Comex open interest collapsed spectacularly to as low as 358,996 contracts on 1st August, the lowest level since May 2009. We won't be able to estimate how much specific categories of commercials were still short on that date until the Commitment of Traders report for last Tuesday is released later tonight; but the indications are swaps, mostly non-US bullion banks, still have collective short positions on the high side.

This is important, because the remaining bulls are obviously resolute, indicated by the sharp upturn in open interest on an equally sharp price gain to $1320 this morning. The signs elsewhere are not good for the shorts either, with physical demand in London appearing to have caught that market on the hop as well. In conclusion, it won't take much to squeeze the remaining shorts and drive the price materially higher.

The silver price has suffered this week. While gold rose 2.3% in a developing bear squeeze, silver actually fell by about 2%. This diverse performance is extremely unusual, and as can be seen in the chart below, silver's open interest has contracted significantly, with only a relatively muted recovery in the last few days.

 Silver Open Interest 08082014

There are strong signs the bear raid is now over. Firstly, open interest is approaching the late-June lows, from which a 15% rally in the price developed, as shown in the chart. This indicates that virtually all the weak bulls have sold or been stopped out, and so the swaps which are still short now risk being squeezed themselves. Secondly, on this low level of open interest there was exceptional volume on Tuesday when the price turned, and also very good volume on Wednesday, when the bears tried unsuccessfully to push the price lower still. Collectively this market information clearly indicates that the odds now favour a strong rally in the silver price.

Developing conditions between NATO and Russia over the Ukraine could well trigger or exacerbate bear squeeze conditions next week. Energy markets have yet to reflect these uncertainties, as well as the deteriorating situation in Northern Iraq.

 

Vi är på extrema nivåer. Är den senaste tidens nedgång början på en större eller bara en kortsiktig rekyl.

Publicerad 2014-08-08 12:47:05 i Ekonomi,

There's little doubt that current measures of valuations, sentiment, leverage and complacency have reached historic extremes. Many analysts have posted charts depicting these extremes, and perhaps the one that distills well multiple extremes into one metric is Doug Short’s chart of the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted Regression to the Trend, another way of saying mean reversion or reverting to the mean.

I have added two red boxes: one around the peak reached just before the Great Crash of 1929 (81% above the trend line), and one around the current reading (86% above the trend line).

För att få en känsla av hur mycket silver som produceras varje år.

Publicerad 2014-08-07 13:24:45 i Ekonomi,

Global annual silver production is approximately 820,000,000 ounces or a bit more than 25,000 metric tons.  What does that mean in terms that we can more easily understand?

If the global annual mine production of silver were cast into one large silver pyramid, it would be approximately – wait for it – only 65 feet high on a base of only 65 feet square.  Rather tiny!  For future reference, this is one “silver pyramid.”

Size comparison:  silver pyramid and the great pyramid of Egypt

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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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