När det gäller monetära system så börjar dom som mycket stabila system med en uppbackning till 100% av något som håller sitt värde, ex ädelmetaller. Under tiden tänjer systemet på stabiliteten genom att gå ned till ca 40% uppbackning och sedan ca 20% för att i sista stadiet ta bort all uppbackning och därmed tillåta fri tryckning av pengar. Där är vi nu idag. Skrämmande när de största valutablocken gör samma sak samtidigt och vi vet att FIAT valutor inte överlever i det monetära systemet.
Det finns därmed mycket som talar för att när vi får ett nytt system så kommer det bli med uppbackning av ädelmetaller eller något som behåller värdet och inte kan framställas ur tomma intet. Som dagens papperspengar.
Kina köper allt guld som dom får tag i och har med all säkerhet en plan för uppbackning av deras valuta. Mer om detta vid ett senare tillfälle.
Allt detta är positivt för ädelmetaller, speciellt guld och silver.
be revised down to almost -6% (annualized) - the worst in almost 70
years. As Goldman points out, even on a longer-term basis, the 4-, 8-,
and 12-quarter trends are all in a 0.2%-0.6% range when the Q1 estimates are
included, dramatically below consensus 2% estimates of the long-term trend.
In other words, at a point which is month #61 of the current business cycle, and thereby already beyond than the average cycle since 1950, why would any one in their right mind say a market is not bubbly when it’s trading at nearly 20X reported earnings. Indeed, in a world where interest rate and profit rate normalization must inevitably come, the capitalization rate for current earnings should be well below normal—-not extended into the nosebleed section of historical results.
And this applies to almost any other measure of valuation in risk asset markets. The Russell 2000, for example, still stands at the absurd height of 85X reported earnings. The cyclically adjusted S&P stands at 24X, or six turns higher than its half century average. The Tobin’s Q measure is also far more stretched than in 2007.
Likewise, emerging markets have piled on $2 trillion in foreign currency debt since 2008. This makes them far more significant in the global financial scheme than they were in 2008 or even at the time of the East Asia crisis of the late 1990s. And that is not even considering the massive house of cards in China, where credit market debt has soared from $1 trillion at the turn of the century to $25 trillion today.
At the end of the day, the Fed and its fellow traveling central banks have systematically dismantled the natural stability mechanisms of financial markets. Accordingly, financial markets have now become dangerous casinos in which speculative bubbles are guaranteed to build to dangerous extremes as the central bank driven financial inflation gathers force. That’s where we are now. Again
Japan’s GDP may have declined in April and May, implying an overall collapse for Q2 not seen since 2009. Bloomberg's Nowcast estimate suggests that the hope-strewn pre-tax-hike pile up of a +6.7% annualized GDP growth in Q1 will come crashing back to earth as consensus GDP for Q2 is -4.85% and even bigger based on Bloomberg's models. As Bloomberg's Tom Orlik warns, this could take markets by surprise. The good news is that Abe's 3rd arrow has yet to reach escape velocity (any day now); below we highlight the entire package and how it will save the world...
This is not what Abe wants to see...
Gold and silver had a good week after the US holiday last Friday. From a low of $1312 on Tuesday, gold rose to a high point of $1345 yesterday, and silver from $20.84 to $21.60. Open interest is climbing too for both metals, as shown in the following charts.
This is healthy and indicates that the uptrend has some wind behind it. However, the Bank Participation Report for 1 July shows a sharp deterioration in the banks' positions, illustrated in our third chart.
The net long position of the US banks for the past year have gone, and they are now short a net 12,324 contracts, while the Non-US banks are short a net 62,099 contracts.
Neither position is extreme, but how should we read this? Well, trading patterns altered this week, with the gold market strong outside US trading hours and softening during New York's trading. This obviously indicates demand is from Asia and Europe, giving some short-term traders in the US an opportunity for profit-taking. Buying is therefore likely to be for physical metal rather than derivatives, which should tighten the market overall.
Additionally it should be noted that platinum has been exceptionally strong, rallying nearly $200 (15%) from its December low. In practice there is little or no short-term correlation with the gold price, but platinum often leads the precious metals group over the medium term. Platinum this year is shown in our last chart, which is refreshingly bullish.
So overall, precious metal markets feel better based, but beware of whipsaws in New York trading because the banks will want to close their bears by marking gold and silver prices sharply down to trigger stops. But gold has now broken above resistance at $1320-30, which should now offer some support before a possible attempt on the $1355+ territory.
Confirmation of why Europeans might be buying physical gold arises from concerns over the financial health of Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo, which has undermined share prices of the entire Eurozone banking sector. The ghost of the Cyprus bail-in may be returning to the financial stage. Also this week Germany reminded us that large deposits are going to be subject to bail-ins if a bank fails, because the German cabinet resolved to put forward the necessary legislation for the New Year.
Talking of Germany, BaFin, the bank regulator, has asked all German banks and investment intermediaries to hand over details of their clients' dealing in precious metals derivatives, according to Goldreporter.de. This follows its investigation into Deutsche Bank's precious metal dealings which coincided with DB's withdrawal from the gold and silver fix. This may be a developing story worth monitoring.
UNPRECEDENTED BUYBACKS LEVELS In case you are in the 1% who have been too busy counting your startling increase in net worth, let me first highlight the velocity with which corporate buybacks have accelerated to.
90% of all S&P 500 profits are presently being spent on corporate Buybacks and Dividends. This is historically unheard of. We are approaching nearly $2 Trillion in buybacks by the S&P 500 members within a forecasted 2 year period. So why is this distortion happening?
Gold price up
Indeed, gold and silver have proven resilient and gained in value as Wall Street took a post second half breather this week and stocks showed signs of entering a correction phase.
If you are looking for the undervalued asset class then surely it is precious metals. Their correction is done and dusted while stocks and bonds have their reversion to long-term averages to come.
Investors seem to have great confidence in the Fed and its money printing to produce the inflation that will help to jump start the global economy. Yet if it achieves that aim that won’t be good for bond or equity prices.
You only have to look back at the most recent historic example of the 1970s to see that inflation is bad news for financial markets and good news for real assets like oil, gold and silver.
Timing this transition is always the difficult part. Getting the next transition right, on the other hand, ought not to be so problematic. Sitting still is not a good option as corrections start.
Thinking more than a few days or weeks ahead when you have a lifetime measured in decades is only logical and how the real investment superstars win over time.
maneuvers have left the bank unable to pay its bonds as Bloomberg reports bonds plunged to record lows after a parent company delayed payments on short-term notes. More importantly, given
the divisively dependent nature of the domestic sovereign bond market (and hence
the health of the EU) and its banking system, it is noteworthy that Portuguese bond risk has surged to 4 month highs with the biggest 2-day spike in a year. As one analyst noted,
get involved,” leaving the EU taxpayer on the hook once again (for fear of
M.A.D. threats) as most critically, it "will have to step in to prevent systemic repercussions?"
Container Store CEO William Arthur Tindell
"We thought our sluggish sales were all because of weather and calendar shifts in the fourth quarter. Going into this first quarter, we had whatever bug we had, weather and calendar shifts for Christmas that began last November and continued into the spring, but now we've come to realize it's more than just weather, consistent with so many of our fellow retailers, we're experiencing a retail funk, I mean, so many retailers that we talk to are experiencing that."
and from the Q&A
"We're certainly doing everything we think we should and can do to try to both improve traffic and average ticket. But in this sort of more tepid environment that we're in, we really felt as though the appropriate thing to do was to really lower that guidance for the next two quarters particularly in light of the fact that these -- some of these great initiatives we're talking about don't really have much of an impact to the shorter term. So, that was really sort of what drove our thinking, it's just -- we didn't want to unrealistically expect that trends would dramatically turn quickly."
and in his summary
"Our highest-end customer seems to be a little bit infrequently shopping us for some darn reason and so does the – I mean we have a very uneven economic recovery still. So for a long time it was the lower-end retailers we're suffering and the higher end, we're doing better and we were doing better. Now, it seems to be more democratic. It seems to be kind of across the board."
Det går att köpa guld på olika sätt. Fysiskt guld i handen är det bästa och säkraste sättet.
Pappersguld är det med störst risk då man inte vet om det finns guld bakom alla underliggande derivat. Det uppskattas att det finns pappersguld till en omfattning om 100 på 1 när det gäller fysiskt guld.
Det smartaste sättet är att köpa guld som man vet ligger i marken och som har höga halter och kan utvinnas på ett enkelt sätt. Nu finns det ett bolag i Sverige som klarar dom förutsättningarna, nämligen Botnia Exploration AB.
Den senaste tiden har det klarnat runt företagets framtida planer och man har fått bekräftat att det finns guld med höga halter och att det även går att utvinnas på det mest enkla och miljövänliga sättet. Företaget har som målsättning att identifiera en mineraltillgång på ca 500 000 tr oz och har idag ca 250 000 tr oz klara. Med dagens börsvärde på ca 9 MUSD betalar du som aktieägare ca USD 36 per oz och kommer företaget upp i ca 500 000 tr oz kommer du in under 20 USD per oz.
Att köpa något för ca $36 som har ett marknadspris på över $1300 och som man idag vet går att framställa på det enklaste, billigaste och mest miljövänliga sättet måste vara det smartaste sättet att köpa guld.
Du är dessutom med på hela uppsidan av guldpriset och behöver inte oroa dig över att det blir stulet då det ligger säkert i marken medan du väntar på att guldet skall stiga till sitt rätta värde.
Botnia Exploration handlas på Aktietorget och kursen pendlar runt ca 0,8 kronor. Då vi tycker att samtliga portföljer skall ha en andel guld så är det här det enklaste, billigaste och säkraste sättet att försäkra sin portfölj med guld tillgångar.
Russell: “In the 56 years I've been writing Dow Theory Letters, I can't remember a more difficult or puzzling situation than the one we now face. Yet, day after day drifts by and the stock market holds fiercely together. … The dividend yield on the S&P Composite is now a micro 1.98%. At the same time the margin account on the NYSE is at a record high. The Dow and the S&P are both at record highs, and at the same time the VIX is near record lows. Thus complacency reigns in the face of a market that is near record levels of overvaluation.
This is a stock market that is not ready for any negativity or bearish developments. In the meantime, John Williams of Shadow Statistics warns that the government, in its desperation to paint an optimistic picture on the economy, is putting out phony or doctored information.
Volatility ended the week at a low 10.32, indicating extreme complacency. Last week the Dow Industrials and the
S&P Composite closed at record highs, with the Dow closing over 17,000 for the first time in history. The NASDAQ closed at its highest level in 14 years. The dividend yield on the S&P Composite ended the week on a never-before-seen micro low of 1.98%.
This compares with the yield on the ten-year Treasury bond of 2.62%. Historically, the dividend yield on stocks has almost always been above bond yields. So it seems that the stock market, with its incredible foresight, sees nothing but blue skies ahead, and the record high in NYSE margin debt provides evidence that traders are bullish and enthusiastic.
However, this past week, we have seen a constant drain of silver stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange with a whopping 29 mt (12%) withdrawal today (Thursday).