macrogoldsilver.blogg.se

Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Janet Yellen får marknaden att gå i taket

Publicerad 2014-03-31 16:20:13 i Ekonomi,

As if there was any surprise that Yellen was fundamentally an uber dove, she just confirmed it. Here are the key highlights from her speech from Bloomberg.

  • YELLEN SEES `CONSIDERABLE SLACK' IN ECONOMY, LABOR MARKET
  • YELLEN SAYS QE TAPER DOESN'T MEAN REDUCED STIMULUS COMMITMENT
  • YELLEN SAYS ECONOMY, JOB MARKET `ARE NOT BACK TO NORMAL HEALTH'
  • YELLEN SAYS FED SHORT OF REACHING EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION GOALS
  • YELLEN SAYS POST-CRISIS LABOR MARKET STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY
  • YELLEN SAYS FED TAKES ITS 2% INFLATION GOAL `VERY SERIOUSLY'
  • YELLEN SAYS DECLINE IN JOBLESS `GRADUAL BUT REMARKABLY STEADY'
  • YELLEN SAYS ECONOMY NEEDS EXTRAORDINARY SUPPORT FOR `SOME TIME'

Guldets rätta värde runt $1800

Publicerad 2014-03-28 17:25:30 i Ekonomi,

The table below shows the growth in the debt limit since 1940 (earliest numbers I could find). The debt limit has been compared to the annual average price of gold. It was quite surprising to find that the gold/debt limit ratio initial was quite high when compared to later years. The ratio only ever approached the level of 1940 again in 1980 when gold prices spiked to $850.

 

 

Year

Gold Price (yearly average)

Debt Limit (Billions US$)

Gold Price/Debt Limit Ratio

US Gold Reserves (metric tonnes fine gold)

$ Value of Gold Reserves (Billions US$)

Value of Gold Reserves/Debt Limit Ratio

1940

$34

$49

0.69

19,543.30

$21.4

0.44

1945

$35

$300

0.12

17,848.00

$20.1

0.07

1950

$35

$275

0.13

20,279.00

$22.8

0.08

1955

$35

$281

0.12

19,331.00

$21.8

0.08

1960

$35

$293

0.12

15,822.00

$17.8

0.06

1965

$35

$328

0.11

12,499.00

$14.1

0.04

1970

$36

$395

0.09

9,839.00

$11.4

0.03

1975

$161

$577

0.28

8,544.00

$44.2

0.08

1980

$613

$925

0.66

8,221.00

$162.0

0.17

1985

$317

$1903

0.17

8,169.00

$83.3

0.04

1990

$384

$3,195

0.12

8,146.00

$100.6

0.03

1995

$384

$4,900

0.08

8,140.00

$100.5

0.02

2000

$279

$5,950

0.05

8,137.00

$73.0

0.01

2005

$445

$8,184

0.05

8,135.00

$116.4

0.01

2010

$1225

$14,294

0.09

8,133.00

$320.3

0.02

Today

$1300

$16,700

0.08

8,133.00

$339.9

0.02

On average the gold price/debt limit ratio has been around 0.11 if one eliminates the two high readings in 1940 and 1980. By that definition gold’s price is somewhat undervalued at current levels. Gold prices should be around $1,800 in order to maintain or at least get back to a 0.11 ratio. At the recent top in September 2011, the ratio was just over 0.12. As can be seen it has since fallen.

Alasdair Macleod från GoldMoney om guldet under veckan

Publicerad 2014-03-28 14:39:42 i Ekonomi,

The correction in the gold price continued this week, falling another $40 to a low of $1290 yesterday. In all, gold has retraced nearly half this year's rise and silver has retraced most of its rise since end-January, with the gold/silver ratio increasing to over 65 times. However, this disappointing performance for precious metals masks some strong undercurrents in gold.

Gold and Silver YTD $

First let's look at the bears' case. Growing evidence of a developing credit implosion in China is expected to lead to falling demand for industrial commodities, with importers likely to default on supplier agreements. This has hit industrial metals such as iron and copper particularly hard, and seems likely to undermine a wider range of commodity prices. Copper in particular is said to be at the centre of multiple hypothecations to raise cash to invest in high-yielding Chinese bonds. I put this story in perspective in my weekend article, but there is no doubt that growing signs of China's financial stress have encouraged commodity bears and frightened the bulls.

Another negative is confusion ahead of the Volker Rule in the Frank-Dodd legislation which comes into effect next Tuesday. This is the deadline for banks to cease proprietary trading. Therefore they are under pressure to close out all commodity trading positions, except where they act as market makers, when they must limit their positions to "not exceed the reasonably expected near-term demands of the market and customers". In other words it appears that long-term bull and bear positions such as in gold and silver must be justified or cut.

The effects of the Volker Rule will probably distort markets beyond next week because the so-called Final Rule is immensely complex, with 71 pages of actual rules and 900 added pages containing over 2,800 footnotes. Some banks are likely to continue trading while the lawyers have a field-day.

The negatives listed above are associated entirely with the paper market. However these mask some new positives for physical demand. Even the Japanese are now buying physical gold according to yesterday's Financial Times, partly to beat a sales tax increase, but importantly because suspicions over Abenomics seem to be increasing. The central banks of Russia, Turkey and Iraq have all taken the opportunity presented by current prices to increase their gold reserves, buying a combined total of 52.53 tonnes in recent weeks. Germany has also said she is to redouble her efforts to get her gold back from the US, and lastly India-watchers think there is a sporting chance that gold import rules might be eased as early as next week.

In summary, current prices appear to be stimulating new sources of physical demand in a deeply oversold physical market. At some stage gold and silver are set to rise strongly, but in the very short term paper traders remain in control.

Lyssna på Peter Schiff

Publicerad 2014-03-27 09:35:26 i Ekonomi,

In @ 4:48 We invite economist Peter Schiff back on the show to talk about the US economy and whether or not current economic indicators mean that the US picture is improving. Listen to what he has to say. 

Stökig vecka för guld och silver.

Publicerad 2014-03-26 09:41:31 i Ekonomi,

Den här veckan är det lösen av optioner och future kontrakt för guld och silver vilket brukar medföra ett tryck nedåt
för kurserna. Detta har vi nu sett för både guld och silver frågan är om man måste under $1300 för guldet och $20 för silvret. I slutet på veckan vet vi. Idag är det options lösen och kritiska nivåer är $1300 och $20.

Sex månaders charts för guld och silver.

 

Momentum för aktier viker vilket innebär att vi är nära toppen för den här gången

Publicerad 2014-03-25 17:01:03 i Ekonomi,

Traders who have used this chart in the past said a 17 per cent downside was typical from here and it had never gotten the direction wrong. Last night the Nasdaq tumbled over one per cent as key tech stocks began to breakdown.

This just has to be partly self-fullfilling as traders will all be tracking the same charts. It is also a matter of fundamental analysis too of course. Recent US and Chinese factory data has come in weaker than expected. There is a war brewing in the Ukraine. The Fed effectively just raised global interest rates.

Stock markets rise until they begin to fall and momentum trend spotters would be the first to spot this and they just have. Time to sell too?

Bank runs i Kina

Publicerad 2014-03-25 16:57:54 i Ekonomi,

There have been runs on two small banks in China with depositors fighting to get through the doors to make withdrawals when they opened. Is this the first crack in the great wall of Chinese credit?

Reuters reported local news about queues outside the Sheyang Rural Commercial Bank in Yancheng yesterday and the Rural Commercial Bank of Huanghai faced similar rushes by depositors today after rumors of insolvency at Sheyang. Officials say it is impossible for a Chinese bank to go bankrupt.

Venedig gör som Krim och snart Skottland

Publicerad 2014-03-25 15:17:09 i Ekonomi,

Inspired by Scotland's hopes for independence and hot on the heels of Crimea's 95% preference for accession to Russia, 89% of the citizens of Venice voted for their own sovereign state in a ‘referendum’ on independence from Italy.

As The Daily Mail reports, the proposed ‘Repubblica Veneta’ includes the five million inhabitants of the Veneto region and has been largely driven by the wealthy 'who are tired of supporting the poor and crime-ridden south' (Venice pays EUR71bn in taxes and receives only EUR21bn in services and investment). The ballot appointed a committee of ten who immediately declared independence from Italy. Venice may now start withholding taxes from Rome. Wonder why the US, Europe, and Japan have not announced the referendum "illegal" and announced sanctions yet?
Venice

Kina köper allt mer guld.

Publicerad 2014-03-25 15:03:51 i Ekonomi,

Enligt officiella siffror från Hong Kong för kinesisk guld import via Hongkong var nettoimport cirka 30 % högre i februari än föregående månad, och hela 79 % högre än samma månad 2013. Det visar att kinesernas efterfrågan på guld inte visar på någon avmattning utan att efterfrågan fortsätter att öka.  

De första två månaderna av årets nettoimporten via Hongkong uppgick till 192,8 ton, jämfört med 80,6 ton under de två första månaderna för 2013 vilket innebär att importen för de två första månaderna faktiskt har stigit med knappt 140%.

 

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gått för guld och silver

Publicerad 2014-03-14 14:09:37 i Ekonomi,

Last Monday gold ended a week-long consolidation that saw it fall from $1354 to $1329, before rising strongly to over $1370 yesterday. Not only is Asian demand still outstripping mine supply by a large margin, but physical ETFs such as GLD are now beginning to see more buyers than sellers, and so are no longer a source of supply.

Gold has also decoupled from the risk-on/risk-off nonsense of the last few years. While other risk assets such as equities have fallen sharply, gold has risen, and it has also risen while other metals, notably copper, have fallen sharply. Also of note is growing confusion in currency markets, with the fundamentally flawed euro, heavily dependent on Russian energy, being the strongest of the major currencies.

Silver has underperformed perhaps with half an eye on industrial metals. It retreated from last month's high of $22.15 to a low of $20.60 last Monday, before rallying with gold over the rest of this week to $21.15 last night. Gold is therefore up while silver is down by about 4%, and the chart below which is of gold and silver rebased to 24th February shows this strong divergence.

Gold & Silver 24 Feb=100

Russia and NATO are playing a game of financial chicken over Ukraine, which is deeply concerning. Russia appears to have calculated that the West would not dare to precipitate a financial and trade war with the largest exporter of energy on the planet. However, it appears that the West is ignoring economic risks: Russia is not be permitted to invade a sovereign territory next to the EU's border, so it's political principals before money. To make the situation considerably more serious, China has weighed in on Russia's side, as she was bound to do as co-founder with Russia of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

The point is not lost on those interested in gold: it amounts to a financial war between long-time bulls in Eurasia, and long-time bears in the West. All the golden cards are held by China and Russia while we Westerners have none. This is why buying interest is initially focusing on gold rather than silver.

This Sunday the Crimea is holding its referendum, and there is little doubt about the outcome. Perhaps the West's strategy is to scare voters into voting to stay with the Ukraine. If so we can hope the financial rhetoric will die down afterwards whatever the outcome, because a financial war would be extremely damaging to the global economy.

Equally serious are the growing signs that China may be the verge of a credit crisis, which would probably unleash a flood of money in favour of gold. My weekend article goes into the dynamics behind and the likely consequences of this event.

Tom Fitzpatrick anser att silvret måste gå igenom $22,16

Publicerad 2014-03-14 09:23:20 i Ekonomi,

Surprisingly silver has, to date, been lagging gold in this last move higher.  Good resistance stands overhead and needs to be broken to signal the next leg higher:

 $21.94: Downward sloping trend line (see chart below)

 $22.16: 55-week moving average.

 A weekly close above this range would open up the way for a test of the double bottom neckline at $25.10.

 A weekly close above ($25.10) would open up the way for gains towards $31+.

Tom Fitzpatrick är positiv tekniskt till guldet

Publicerad 2014-03-14 09:19:56 i Ekonomi,

A weekly close above this range would open up the way for a test of the pivotal double bottom neckline at $1,434.

 A weekly close above this ($1,434) level would complete the double bottom and suggest extended gains towards $1,680 - $1,685.  Such a move would take us back above both the 200-week moving average at $1,493 and the horizontal resistance (previously support) from 2011/2012 at $1,523 - $1,527.

 Such a move, if seen, would strongly suggest that the corrective low is in and that a re-test of the all-time highs at $1,921 and beyond is highly likely.

 

Ted Butler tycker man skall stänga COMEX

Publicerad 2014-03-13 16:49:07 i Ekonomi,

Ted Butler:  Why Not Just Close the COMEX
"Not to be delusional, I have little expectation that the COMEX will be closed; but I think the idea has merit and should be considered. In fact, the vast majority of market participants and society as a whole would benefit from a closing of the COMEX for the simple reason that all the commodities traded there have been manipulated in price. The simplest way of ending these manipulations is to shut down the mechanism of manipulation...
Since it can be demonstrated and proven thru CFTC data that prices are set on the COMEX with no input from the real world producers or consumers, society as a whole would benefit if the COMEX didn’t exist. This is a private club that has no legitimacy in dictating to the world what prices should be.
The COMEX has undermined and replaced the free market law of supply and demand with a phony price-setting mechanism never intended when Congress authorized regulated futures trading. The COMEX is not functioning as intended and it’s hard to see what might change that. As such, it should be shut down."

The Daily Telegraph skriver att kinesiska shadow banking systemet har slutat att låna ut pengar under februari. Detta är Lehman på steroider.

Publicerad 2014-03-13 12:48:00 i Ekonomi,

New loans from China’s $1.5 trillion-a-year shadow banking sector came to a sudden stop last month after lending out $160 billion in January, reported The Daily Telegraph today. Global financial markets have yet to fully digest what this means.

Copper and iron ore prices have slumped because both were being used as collateral in the shadow banking complex and these stocks could soon be dumped onto the market.

Lehman Brothers x2

But the size of this credit squeeze if it continues is humungous. It’s at least twice the size of the Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy that tipped the US credit system over in 2008 and brought us the global financial crisis.

This explains why Chinese exports tanked by 18 per cent last month, a huge decline even after taking into account seasonal factors. Take the credit out of any system and trade suffers. Remember how global trade slumped in the first half of 2009?

The Baltic Dry Index of global shipping is down 31 per cent year-to-date. If the Chinese aren’t shipping stuff what will this mean for US consumers? Will they have to pay more if markets are undersupplied?

China has accounted for half of the $30 trillion in credit created over the past five years and $8 trillion has been from its shadow banking sector. Last week the country saw its first ever corporate bond default.

One can only imagine what that means for the quality of the rest of its loan books. Lehman triggered a revaluation of US subprime loans that almost broke the US banking sector. What will a shadow banking crisis do to the colossal Chinese economy?

There has been huge overbuilding, stockpiling and misallocation of capital. Last year China invested $5 trillion, more than the US and Japan combined. Where did that money go? Into viable projects?

Dubai x1,000

It’s a bubble that hedge fund manager Jim Chanos identified several years ago as ‘Dubai x1,000′ alluding to the debt problems that followed the sudden stop of the Dubai boom in 2009.

If the Chinese economy has now just hit a similar sudden stop then the implications for the global economy will be enormous. There will be a deflation in industrial commodities, including oil and a contagion across world financial markets.

However, there may also be an inflation of certain products that become scarce if Chinese exports cannot be funded. Then again so many businesses depend on Chinese demand, from German auto manufacturers to European tourism.

This is no small deal. Watch this space.

Michael Snyder om varför börsen skall ned.

Publicerad 2014-03-13 10:17:58 i Ekonomi,

By Michael Snyder, on March 12th, 2014

I was recently discussing the market, current sentiment and other investing related issues with a money manager friend of mine in California. (Normally, I would include a credit for the following work but since he works for a major firm he asked me not to identify him directly.)  However, in one of our many email exchanges he sent me the following note detailing the 10 typical warning signs of stock market exuberance.

(1) Expected strong OR acceleration of GDP and EPS  (40% of 2013's EPS increase occurred in the 4th quarter)

(2) Large number of IPOs of unprofitable AND speculative companies

(3) Parabolic move up in stock prices of hot industries (not just individual stocks)

(4) High valuations (many metrics are at near-record highs, a few at record highs)

(5) Fantastic high valuation of some large mergers (e.g., Facebook & WhatsApp)

(6) High NYSE margin debt

Margin debt/gdp (March 2000: 2.7%, July 2007: 2.6%, Jan 2014: 2.6%)

Margin debt/market cap (March 2000: 1.8%, July 2007: 2.3%, Jan 2014: 2.0%)

(7) Household direct holdings of equities as % of total financial assets at 24%, second-highest level (data back to 1953, highest was 1998-2000)

(8) Highly bullish sentiment (down slightly from year-end peaks; still high or near record high, depending on the source)

(9) Unusually high ratio of selling to buying by corporate senior managers (the buy/sell ratio of senior corporate officers is now at the record post-1990 lows seen in Summer 2007 and Spring 2011)

(10) Stock prices rise following speculative press releases (e.g., Tesla will dominate battery business after they get partner who knows how to build batteries and they build a big factory.  This also assumes that NO ONE else will enter into that business such as GM, Ford or GE.)

All are true today, and it is the third time in the last 15 years these factors have occurred simultaneously which is the most remarkable aspect of the situation.

Ska man tro detta chart så är vi på väg utför.

Publicerad 2014-03-13 09:57:46 i Ekonomi,

A number of technical analysts have been posting charts that suggest a meltdown-type decline in global markets could occur in 2014—there’s an analog chart of 1929 making the rounds, and Tom McClellan published a chart of the Coppock Curve indicator that looks like the next downdraft is imminent. 

Guldet tillbaka på spåret när det gäller att följa den monetära basen.

Publicerad 2014-03-13 09:47:21 i Ekonomi,

 Guldet har de senste dryga två åren släppt sin koppling till ökningen av den monetära basen i USA och i stället fått en dryga 35% nedgång medan den monetära basen har fortsatt att stiga. Det verkar dock som att guldpriset är tillbaka på spåret och skall nu ta tillbaka sin nedgång och börja harmonisera med den monetära basen. Detta tyder på att vi kan få se ett guldpris under detta år som printar all time high.
Gold versus Monetary Base

Vinsterna upp eller börsen ner.

Publicerad 2014-03-12 18:17:12 i Ekonomi,

Gordon T Long@GordonTLong                                       

S&P 500 Forward 12-Mo PE Ratio - Elliott Wave Pattern suggests time for either Price down or EPS up.       

Jim Rickards Twittrar

Publicerad 2014-03-12 14:31:00 i Ekonomi,

twitter.com                                                         MARCH 12, 2014        
Tweet from Jim Rickards

Från Eric Sprotts blogg

Publicerad 2014-03-12 13:41:09 i Ekonomi,

Why Gold Will Matter in 2014
 
The year 2013 was a forgettable one for gold investors as they watched the precious metal sink 27% after a remarkable bull run lasting nearly a decade. When prices reached $1,200 levels some time last year, most experts predicted that the gold rally was over.
So far this year, those predictions have not turned out to be exactly right. Gold has managed to buck the trend, rising 10.4% year to date as emerging market economic weakness combined with rising geopolitical tensions revived its status as a safe haven.

 
Gold investor and strategist Eric Sprott, who has steadfastly refused to buy the theory of erosion of investor faith in precious metals, and has instead alluded to central bank manipulation as the reason behind the 2013 price fall (read his post at www.zerohedge.com on January 17), is today more bullish than ever about gold. "The price of gold and silver will both hit new highs in 2014," he said in a blog post on January 9. "The price of gold goes north of $2,000, and silver will quickly go over $50. When it does, it will get a little crazy." 

Från Jim Rickards blogg

Publicerad 2014-03-12 13:38:36 i Ekonomi,

Will Gold Rally in 2014?
 
There is a total supply of gold in the world. But to corner a market or squeeze a market, you don’t need to buy all the gold, you just need to buy the floating supply. Think of all the gold in the world, it’s about 170,000 tons. Think of a little sliver on top of it that is the floating supply available for trading.
Gold that’s in the Comex or JPMorgan or GLD vaults is available for trading. Gold purchased by the Chinese will not see the light of day again for the next 300 years, and is not available for trading. So with the gold going from West to East, and from GLD to China, the total amount of gold is unchanged, but the floating supply is declining rapidly.
This means that the paper gold that sits on top of the floating supply is becoming more and more unstable and vulnerable to a short squeeze, because there is not enough physical gold to support it. So that’s likely to collapse at one point and lead to a short squeeze and heavy buying.

Man skyller allt på vädret i USA men är det inte bara en dålig bortförklaring.

Publicerad 2014-03-11 18:27:49 i Ekonomi,

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2014 10:08 -0400 We are sure the great and good of the economic world will explain away this data with one word – "weather" but the 1.9% drop in Wholesale Sales is the largest in 5 years and aside from the financial crisis is the worst since 1993! This is also the biggest miss on record. Inventories rose more than expected (+0.6% vs +0.4% expectations) which could be a problem as the inventories/sales ratio surges to its highest in 11 months. Unsurprisingly, Autos saw the largest inventory build (+6.8% YoY).

Wholesale Sales plunge…

clip_image003

 

With auto inventory at all time record highs and growing at the fastest pace in 15 months

clip_image005

Chart: Bloomberg

Hög börsvärdering med lånade billiga pengar

Publicerad 2014-03-10 13:34:17 i Ekonomi,

Valuations, or the prices of stocks compared to the companies’ underlying earnings, have passed levels last reached in 2007, or the top of the previous bull market. Bull markets tend to expire when trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratios get into 17x or 18x territory.

They’re approaching 18x today. What is really troubling is that much of the buying is being fueled by very cheap debt.

Record margin debt is the canary in the coal mine, and when it goes silent say your prayers. Here’s the chart:

Mark Spitznagel Warns "Fed's Frankenstein Markets Are Totally An Illusion"

Publicerad 2014-03-06 15:41:34 i Ekonomi,

 

bernankecarwreck

 
 
 "Asset markets now are totally an illusion... they are pricing in an alternative reality that is so different what is going on"

"The reason for this is the Fed - the modern day Victor Frankenstein - who have created this thing that otherwise wouldn't live"

 "We are led to believe there is this vigor out there, whereas in reality, if the Fed pulled out, the market would be cut in half"

 "Japan is a crazy science experiment... it's a scary scary place [to invest]"

Zero Hedge skriver om dagens besked från ECB

Publicerad 2014-03-06 15:27:23 i Ekonomi,

Promises, promises. A lack of easing, aside from a promise of "lower for longer", has driven EURUSD back above 1.38 as the market is once again disappointed by Draghi's lack of exuberance.

  • *DRAGHI SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT STABILIZING, REMAINS HIGH (umm, continues to rise every month?)
  • *DRAGHI SAYS UPSIDE, DOWNSIDE INFLATION RISKS REMAIN LIMITED (umm, continues to plunge every month?)
  • *DRAGHI SAYS RISKS TO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ARE ON DOWNSIDE (umm, stocks are at record highs?)
  • *DRAGHI SAYS REAL INCOME SUPPORTED BY LOWER ENERGY PRICES (umm, so no sanctions on Russia then?)

But apart from that, Draghi is "nailing it"...

 

[5]

 

We are sure a stronger currency will work wonders for the recovery...

Just how cornered is Draghi - well you decide - after these comments...

  • *DRAGHI CITES LOW INFLATION, WEAK ECONOMY, SUBDUED CREDIT
  • *DRAGHI SAYS ECB EXPECTS RECOVERY TO PROCEED AT A SLOW PACE

So why no "stimulus" - what's he worried about?

Börsuppgången fyller fem år

Publicerad 2014-03-06 10:50:35 i Ekonomi,

MI-CB618 AOT NS 20140304171803

Dagens börsuppgång fyller nu fem år och har pågått i 60 månader med en ökning om 177% för Dow. Den genomsnittliga uppgången sedan 1921 har varit 180% och den har pågått i 62 månader. FED drar ned på stimulanserna och den ekonomiska utvecklingen stannar av vilket medför att det är mycket möjligt att vi inte kommer upp i den genomsnittliga längden av 62 månader utan vi får se nedgången inom de närmaste veckorna.

IMF vill se beslut om stimulanser från ECB under dagens möte

Publicerad 2014-03-06 10:16:24 i Ekonomi,

 imf urges european central bank to cut interest rates below zero
The European Central Bank should cut interest rates and either inject more liquidity into the banking system via its Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) or start public and private asset purchases, International Monetary Fund officials said.

Consumer inflation, which the bank wants to keep below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term, has been stuck in what the ECB called the danger zone of below 1 percent for five months.

"You can have too much of a good thing, including low inflation," Reza Moghadam, the head of the IMF's European Department said in a blog.

"Very low inflation may benefit important segments of the population, notably net savers. But in the current context of widespread indebtedness problems, it is working to the detriment of recovery in the euro area, especially in the more fragile countries, where it is thwarting efforts to reduce debt, regain competitiveness and tackle unemployment," they said in the blog.

Från Marc Fabers blogg

Publicerad 2014-03-05 16:28:26 i Ekonomi,

A Vicious Circle To The Downside Is Just Beginning

 
"It's not just tapering that is putting pressure on markets," Marc Faber warns in thie brief clip. "Emerging economies have practically no growth and we have a slowdown in China that is more meaningful than strategists are willing to believe," he adds and this is "causing a vicious circle to the downside" in inflated asset markets as most of the growth in the world over the last five years has come from emerging markets. Faber suggests Treasuries as a safe haven in the short-term; but is nervous of their value in the long-term as "debt is becoming burdensome on the system." "A lot of economic growth was driven by soaring asset prices"

Från Jim Rickards blogg

Publicerad 2014-03-05 16:24:32 i Ekonomi,

My Target for Gold is $7000 to $9000 per Ounce
 
Gold has a number of vectors. It is technically set up for a massive rally. Let me separate the fundamentals from the technicals.
Fundamentally my target price for gold is in the range of $7,000 to $9,000 per ounce. That’s not something that will happen straight away, but it’s not a 10-year forecast either. It’s a three- to five-year forecast, for the price to rise by about five to six times.

ADP klart sämre än väntat, men det är som vanligt vädrets fel.

Publicerad 2014-03-05 16:14:39 i Ekonomi,

Following the revision, this was the biggest miss since February 2011. Luckily it was in January so it can be ignored.

This is what the current ADP job "gains" look like.

And here is the funny part: today ADP released its annual "data" revisions. The pre and post revised numbers are shown below. The blue are the original, the orange are the new. See if you can spot the difference.

[3]

Incidentally, this downward revision of 20% over the past three months is precisely as we predicted before the data came out, because the manipulation across all data sets is now so glaringly obvious a caveman can do it:

Skall börsen ner och 10 åriga räntan ned till nya lägsta noteringar.

Publicerad 2014-03-05 12:20:14 i Ekonomi,

 
10 åriga räntan i USA har haft en stadig nedgång de senaste dryga 30 åren. Man skall dock notera att varje gång man försökt att gå igenom på ovansidan av den nedåtgående kanalen så har börsen fått en större sättning och därmed fått ned den långa räntan. Vi är nu och studsar på ovansidan av den långa kanalen och frågan är om vi skall gå igenom eller om börsen skall dyka och räntan får ett nedställ till lägre nivåer än vi haft förut.
Nedan är ett mer kortsiktigt chart som specificerar den blåa boxen i chartet ovan.

Paul Craig Roberts gästar Kingworldnews och jämför Ukraina med Cuba krisen.

Publicerad 2014-03-05 10:52:30 i Ekonomi,

Paul Craig Roberts - Why is the Fed tapering?
We had the threat of Soviet missile bases 90 miles from our border.  What we are doing now is the beginning stage of what Khrushchev was attempting in Cuba.  And Khrushchev’s response was to the fact that Americans put missiles in Turkey, on Russia’s border.  So he said, ‘OK, I’ll put them in Cuba.’....
“Well, we now have missile bases on Russia’s border with Poland.  If we add the Ukraine, it’s like giving Russia two doses of Cuba.  And Ukraine is a far greater strategic importance to Russia than it is to the United States.  So the risks here are much higher for that reason alone than the Cuban Missile Crisis was.

The second reason is that the quality of American leadership today is not anywhere close to what it was when John F. Kennedy was President.  Kennedy contained the situation.  He stood up to the war-mongers -- to the generals -- and back-channeled communications with Khrushchev.

Khrushchev agreed to take the missiles out of Cuba, and Kennedy would quietly, six months later, take the American missiles out of Turkey.  This was not part of the official announcement, but it was part of the secret agreement.  Kennedy kept his word and removed the missiles from Turkey six months later.

USA hotar Ryssland och Ryssland hotar tillbaka

Publicerad 2014-03-05 10:06:41 i Ekonomi,

A senior adviser to Putin said this morning that if the United States were to impose sanctions on Russia over Ukraine, Moscow might be forced to drop the dollar as a reserve currency and refuse to pay off loans to U.S. banks. As newswires reported the comments from Putin’s senior aide Glazyev, the USD Index fell marginally to session lows and broke below 80.00 before recovering.

Russia could reduce to zero its economic dependency on the United States if Washington agreed sanctions against Moscow over Ukraine, politician and economist Glazyev said, warning that the American financial system faced a "crash" if this happened.

Sergei Glazyev, a senior adviser to President Putin, added that if Washington froze the accounts of Russian businesses and individuals, Moscow will recommend to all holders of U.S. treasuries to sell their U.S. government debt.

Enligt den här beräkningen skall guldet handlas mellan $2400-$2900 under 2017

Publicerad 2014-03-05 09:51:47 i Ekonomi,

http://www.deviantinvestor.com/5545/5545/
Given the above assumptions, a reasonable projection for the EGP (a “fair” price for gold) in 2017 is $2,400 – $2,900.  Remembering that market prices can spike significantly above or crash below the EGP for many months, we could see a spike high above $3,500 or $4,000 in 2017.  Extraordinary events such as a global war or dollar melt-down could push prices higher and sooner.

Ryssland och Ukraina har mycket skulder upptagna utomlands vilket blit dyrt med valutor som sjunker som en sten.

Publicerad 2014-03-05 09:44:02 i Ekonomi,

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-hidden-debts-of-russia-and-ukraine-2014-3
Hard currency external debt

Chart 2: Hard currency external debt in emerging markets as a  percentage of GDP. Note: Offshore issuance is the total of bonds issued by  subsidiaries incorporated in a country different from the firm's primary  location of business. Figures are based on amount outstanding, which will  account for debt restructuring. Sample excludes Singapore and Hungary which have  outsized cross-border loan exposure.

 

Ryssland och Kina verkar överens om utvecklingen medan USA och England funderar på hur dom skall leva upp till sitt gamla avtal.

Publicerad 2014-03-04 16:24:10 i Ekonomi,

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov discussed Ukraine by telephone with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Monday, and claimed they had "broadly coinciding points of view" on the situation there, according to a ministry statement.
Vladimir_Putin_with_Zhang_Deguang

President Bill Clinton, along with the British, signed in 1994 a nearly forgotten agreement to protect Ukraine’s borders. Ukraine now is appealing to the countries that signed the agreement.

As the British Daily Mail points out, it means that, technically, if Russia were to invade Ukraine, it would be difficult for the U.S. and Britain to avoid going to war.

Given that the late Russian president, Boris Yeltsin also signed it, it was apparent that it wasn’t expected that the Russians would take the action that Putin now is undertaking.

Andrew Maguire varför silvret kommer att få se mycket högre priser.

Publicerad 2014-03-04 11:40:47 i Ekonomi,

Buy U.S. Silver Eagle 1 Ounce (oz) Coins
 
“They are extremely worried about the shift in bearish sentiment, and they are doing their utmost trying to stop this from taking off.
Now, we’ve been getting a lot of two-way information regarding India. ... The World Gold Council estimates gold smuggling to be 20 to 30 tons per month, but my wholesaler says this is a ‘gross underestimation,’ and could be as high as ’50 tons per month.’
Although this large scale smuggling has partially offset an enormous pent-up demand, once restrictions are eased, gold demand will explode (in India). As most Indian gold is sourced in London, this catch-up physical demand will have an immediate impact on price. Indians are used to a $1,450+ gold price already. So there is going to be little in the way of sticker-shock for them.
As far as silver is concerned, the most recent import data recorded Indian silver demanded from April 2013 to January 2014, was 1,497 tons. That is a record for this period during the last 5 years. This data is significant as it matches the strong April 2008 to January 2009 period, when silver reached a bargain price of $8.40 an ounce -- Indians know how to recognize a bargain.
This 100% confirms our reports of a ramp-up in wholesale silver bullion bars being airfreighted to India. Silver fundamentals are extremely bullish as is the current paper market structure. ... At the margin it is wholesale silver that is in short supply, not retail bars. And JP Morgan is leading the way now in stockpiling 1,000 ounce silver bars. It’s not rocket science to realize why they are doing this.”

Gerald Celente gästar Kingworldnews och har åsikter om vas som händer i Ukraina

Publicerad 2014-03-04 11:33:24 i Ekonomi,

“It’s a huge risk.  We also have the new government in Ukraine mobilizing their forces against the Russians, but the Ukraine is no match at all against Russia.  Second, if Napoleon and Hitler couldn’t win in Russia, what makes anybody think that the United States and the EU, and especially the Ukraine troops, are going to stop the Russians?  They have now awakened the Russian Bear....

“They’ve poked it, and now it’s come alive.  And they better stop it because this could be a destabilization that could lead to World War III.  I gave you Einstein’s warning in our last interview, ‘I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.’

 

 

 

 

 

Utbudet av guld kommer att minska uner 2014.

Publicerad 2014-03-04 11:18:16 i Ekonomi,

Gold supply facing strain

Gold supply is set to come under some pressure this year as output for 2014 will fall below expectations, so warns Barrick Gold Corp., Goldcorp Inc. and Newmont Mining Corp.

The three mining companies are the largest producers, by market value, according to Bloomberg. Thanks to gold’s major correction last year, miners were ‘forced’ to take ‘at least $30 billion of write-downs,’ reports Bloomberg.

Whilst the fall in fresh gold supply will be good for the gold price, given the insatiable demand for physical at present, there is no consensus amongst miners as to when production will begin to suffer.

Stan Weinstein delar in marknaden i fyra olika stadier. Guldet har nu inlett fas 1.

Publicerad 2014-03-04 11:08:09 i Ekonomi,

Gold and It’s Market Stage Analysis:

The key to investing is to be buying and holding investments which are starting a new bull market (Stage 1 & 2). You don’t want to be holding securities that are in a stage 3 or stage 4. Investing in overpriced assets that are showing signs of a market top similar to the 2000 technology sector, and 2008 financial crash is not where new investment capital should be put to work.

Most investors only focus on the major indexes to gauge the market strength and ignore other asset classes. But knowing that there is almost always a new bull market starting whether in a stock, sector, world index, commodity, real estate, bonds, or currency etc. So it only makes sense to rotate money out of mature markets and into new fresh investments that show growth potential.

Hedge Funds blir allt mer positiva till guldet-.

Publicerad 2014-03-03 17:39:42 i Ekonomi,

jim willie cb - trashing saudi cutouts - ransacking their gold
Hedge funds raised bullish gold wagers to the highest in more than 14 months amid mounting concern that the U.S. economic recovery is weakening.

The net-long position climbed 25 percent to 113,911 futures and options in the week ended Feb. 25, the highest since December 2012, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Net-bullish holdings across 18 U.S.-traded commodities advanced 16 percent to 1.45 million contracts, the most since April 2011. Coffee wagers reached a 33-month high.

Investors’ return to gold after the bear market in 2013 drove prices 6.6 percent higher last month, the most since July. The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter than previously estimated, giving the expansion less momentum heading into 2014. China’s yuan tumbled the most on record on Feb. 28, adding to concern about emerging-market growth and spurring demand for alternative assets.

“There are some major concerns about the erosion of the U.S. economy,” said Jeffrey Sica, who helps oversee more than $1 billion of assets as president of Sica Wealth Management in Morristown, New Jersey. “The devaluation of currencies will continue, and it’s going to further accelerate the upside appreciation of gold. As we see more trouble out of China and emerging markets, it’s going to become more of a safe-haven investment than it’s been in the past year and a half.”

 

Från Jim Rickards blogg

Publicerad 2014-03-03 11:17:57 i Ekonomi,

The International Monetary System has Already Collapsed Three Times Within the Last 100 Years
 
 
It’s both a prequel and a sequel to “Currency Wars,” my first book. It’s a prequel in a sense that “Currency Wars” opened with two chapters that describe a financial war game that took place in a top-secret weapons laboratory in 2009.
That was the first time the Pentagon had ever done a war game where the only weapons could be financial instruments—stocks, bonds, derivatives, currencies.
How did I get involved in it? I start out talking about earlier involvement in national security matters and that led up to the war game. That part is the prequel.
The sequel is that in “Currency Wars” I also had a lot of history. There were five chapters of history and I thought that was very important.
If you are going to talk about gold with the reader, a lot of times if you jump right into gold, people think you are sort of a nut. I find if you tell the story through history people can see gold in a context, and when you talk about it, it doesn’t seem quite so strange.
In my new book, “The Death of Money,” there is no reason to repeat the history—that’s all in “Currency Wars”—so it’s more forward leaning, and talks more about the future of the international monetary system, a coming collapse.
And not just a collapse, because a lot of people are running around talking doom and gloom, the end of the dollar and all that. I might even agree with that, but I don’t think it has a lot of content.
What I try to do is provide a more in-depth analysis describing what will come next, what the future international monetary system will look like.
I point out that the international monetary system has already collapsed three times within the last 100 years—1914, 1939, and 1971—and that another collapse would not be at all unusual. But it’s not the end of the world. It’s just that the major powers sit down and reform the system. I talk about what that reformation will look like.
So that’s the sequel or the continuation of the story looking over the horizon. Some stuff that is before “Currency Wars” and some stuff that is after. And other content on the contemporary situation in Europe and China, so I hope people enjoy it.
 

ArabianMoney undrar om Ukraina kan vara en Black Swan.

Publicerad 2014-03-03 10:07:42 i Ekonomi,

Geopolitical risk premium in global financial markets is definitely on the rise this morning as investors digest the likely impact of what amounts to an invasion of the Ukraine by Russian troops over the weekend with an estimated 6,000 of them now stationed in Crimea in response to the overthrow of the Russian-backed president by an angry mob in Kiev.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitriy Medvedev said: ‘Ukraine for us is not a group of people who, pouring blood on the Maidan (Kiev’s main square), seized power in violation of the constitution and other state laws. Russia needs a strong and stable Ukraine. A predictable and economically thriving partner. Not a poor relation that’s always standing with a hand held out.’

Black swan

Pull this sort of trigger in global financial markets that are already very overstretched in valuation and you have a potential black swan event that could unleash a far wider systemic contagion.

The S&P 500 index only put in a new all-time high last week. Japan looks vulnerable to a flight to the safety of the yen. Chinese credit markets are showing signs of strain alarmingly reminiscent of US markets before the 2007-8 subprime crisis (click here). The eurozone crisis was never really settled and its banks remain vulnerable. Debt defaults could be widespread undermining the banking system (click here).

This is the sort of shaky global financial edifice that could be very easily kicked over by a major crisis in the Ukraine. Investors today will start to price in that possibility. There will be a flight to the safety of the US dollar, yen and gold and silver, and away from riskier assets like emerging market stocks and major stock markets too.

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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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