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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Konsekvenser av pengatryckning

Publicerad 2014-09-30 10:46:31 i Ekonomi,

Notera BRICS ränteutveckling jämfört med övriga västvärlden och hur utvecklingsländernas valutor tappat mot dollarn. Dessa länder har sina utlandslån nominerade i dollar vilket medför att skulderna har ökat betydligt. Dessutom är det i dessa länder som inflationen tar fart och det är inte konstigt att det är här vi ser oroligheter bland befolkningen. detta är bara början och vi kan tacka pengatryckningen för detta fenomen.
 
 
Currency Category

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2014-09-26 13:52:00 i Ekonomi,

This week saw gold rally $15 to $1233 on Tuesday before sliding to $1207 yesterday morning, then rallying in the afternoon. Silver's moves tracked gold's, bottoming out at $17.30 yesterday at the London opening. This morning precious metals are firmer in pre-LBMA trade, reflecting some short-covering ahead of the weekend.

The action, as has often been the case recently, is in paper markets with hedge funds shorting gold and silver against a strong dollar. This can be readily seen in the following chart of Managed Money shorts on Comex, which is back in record oversold territory. The chart of silver is similar.

MM Gold Shorts 26092014

The analysts encouraging fund managers to sell gold are mostly working for the investment and bullion banks, and it turns out that their traders are buying it, closing their bear positions. This is shown in the next chart of Swaps, which represents mostly the aggregate futures positions of the non-American bullion banks.

 

So the swaps have reduced their net shorts by over 60,000 contracts (190 tonnes) over the last five weeks. The next chart is of the largest four traders, which are mainly the American bullion banks.

 

Gold Net 26092014

Gold Swaps Price 26092014

Bank of Japan köper aktier och är nu den näst största ägaren på börsen.

Publicerad 2014-09-25 10:50:32 i Ekonomi,

Having totally killed the Japanese government bond market, Shinzo Abe has - unlike the much less transparent Federal Reserve, who allegedly use their proxy Citadel - gone full tilt into buying Japanese stocks (via ETFs). In May, we noted the BoJ's aggressive buying as the Nikkei dropped, and in June we pointed out the BoJ's plan tobuy Nikkei-400 ETFs and so, as Nikkei news reports, it is hardly surprising that the Bank of Japan bought a record JPY 123.6 billion worth of ETFs in August. The market 'knows' that the BoJ tends to buy JPY10-20 billion ETFs when stock prices fall in the morning. The BoJ now holds 1.5% of the entire Japanese equity market cap (or roughly JPY 480 trillion worth) and is set to surpass Nippon Life as the largest individual holder of Japanese stocks. And, since even record BoJ buying was not enough to do the job, Abe has now placed GPIF reform (i.e. legislating that Japan's pension fund buys stocks in much greater size) as a primary goal for his administration. The farce is almost complete as the Japanese ponzi teeters on the brink.
Bildresultat för japansk flagga

Guldpriset är nu lika billigt som i början på 2000-talet.

Publicerad 2014-09-24 10:48:42 i Ekonomi,

Look at the following graph of the ratio calculated back to 1971.  Does the bubble in the gold to national debt ratio in 1980 look similar to the increase in the ratio into 2011?  Clearly not!  Gold bubbled up from about $100 to over $800 in about 3.5 years back in 1976 – 1980.  The rally from the October 2008 lows in gold to the August 2011 high was impressive but not similar to the 1980 rally.  You can see from the graph of the ratio that the 2011 high was barely a “blip” on the graph compared to the spike upward in 1980.  

Gold to National Debt, Adjusted for Population, since 1971

Insiders säljer aktier och bolagen köper tillbaka egna aktier. Detta är ohållbart och kommer att sluta i ett fritt fall.

Publicerad 2014-09-24 10:38:00 i Ekonomi,

Only 7,181 insiders bought shares of their own companies so far this year through September 12, down 8% from a year ago, while 23,323 sold shares, according to Bloomberg – approaching the worst buy-sell ratio since 2000.

This insider aversion for their companies’ stock is in sharp contrast to stock buybacks that their companies have undertaken. When it comes to usingtheir own money, insiders have become very bearish, diversifying out of their companies, selling hand over fist. When it comes to using other people’s money, they have no such compunction: corporate share buybacks reached a near record in the first half. And for the trailing 12 months, according to FactSet, buybacks jumped 29% to $539 billion.

But insiders know this pace of buybacks isn’t sustainable: free cash flow declined 0.5% while the ratio of buybacks to free cash flow rose to 82%, the highest since, well, Q3 2008. And so in Q2, buybacks actually plunged 23% from Q1, according to FactSet. Alas, buybacks – that $539 billion over 12 months! – have been one of the most important pillars of the stock market rally.

 

 

Mycket pengar är nu placerade på den amerikanska börsen.

Publicerad 2014-09-23 10:51:30 i Ekonomi,

From the Federal Reserve’s latest Z.1 Release (formerly, Flow Of Funds), we learn that in the 2nd quarter, household and nonprofit’s stock holdings rose from 34.2% to 35% of their total financial assets. This is the highest percentage since 2000. In fact, the blow-off phase from 1998 to 2000 leading up to the dotcom bubble burst was the only time in the history of the data (since 1945) that saw higher stock investment than now.

This is one of our favorite data series because it reveals a lot about not only investment levels but investor psychology as well. When investors have had positive recent experiences in the stock market, i.e., a bull market, they have been happy to pour money into stocks. It is consistent with all of the evidence of performance-chasing pointed out by many.

Note how stock investment peaked with major tops in 1966, 1968, 1972, 2000 and 2007. Of course, investment will rise merely with the appreciation of the market; however, we also observe disproportionate jumps in investment levels near tops as well. Note the spikes at the 1968 and 1972 tops and, most egregiously, at the 2000 top.

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2014-09-12 14:57:20 i Ekonomi,

Precious metals have had to endure a week of gathering dollar strength, which is at least partly the result of problems specific to the euro, yen and sterling. The result is gold has fallen a further $30 over the week, and silver by about $0.70c. The first chart is of gold and open interest on Comex.

GoldOpenInterest 12092014

Over the last two weeks the gold price has been falling while open interest has been rising: in other words paper gold has been flooding the market. This is illustrated in the second chart, of Managed Money short positions.

MMGoldShorts 12092014

Last Tuesday's position (not yet in this chart) will be released after-hours tonight, and I expect these shorts to rise to about 70,000 contracts. Given the action of the last few days I would expect this short interest to currently be at a new record. For the third time in a year, hedge funds and other fund managers are betting the ranch on a falling gold price.
Usually, it is sensible to buy into a heavily oversold market, and that is just what the bullion banks are doing, which is reflected by a fall in the net swap short position in the third chart.

GoldSwaps 12092014

Again, this will be updated tonight, when I expect to see net shorts decline below 50,000 contracts, and today it is probably less than 30,000 contracts.
The relationship between speculation by money managers and bullion banks is clear. The bullion banks are the professionals and they are buying. The money managers are increasingly late sellers, after prices have declined. The signal that bullion banks are closing their shorts is probably a more important predictor of future prices than blindly following money managers.
That having been said, the current strength in the dollar has brought a new dose of uncertainty to precious metal prices. For the moment, it has been more a case of weakness in major currencies, particularly the euro yen and pound, rather than dollar strength. If signs develop of bigger shifts in favour of the dollar, markets could be signalling a greater degree of currency instability, leading the Fed to contemplate how to counteract the deflationary effect on domestic US prices. This should generally be positive for gold after the current period of uncertainty.
Silver's open interest is growing strongly as the bears increase their shorts. The preliminary figures for yesterday take open interest to a new record level.

And here the shorts are well on their way to taking silver into record oversold territory, which is almost certainly the case given the explosion in open interest in the last few days.

To summarise: while currency instability has introduced short-term uncertainty over the price outlook for gold and silver, buyers looking to close profitable bear positions outweigh sellers by far. 
Dramatically oversold futures markets are likely to lead to an unexpected technical rally rather than significant further downside, given that bearish activity appears to be concentrated in the paper markets while physical demand continues unabated.

SilverOpenInterest 12092014

Det är bara 14 av 100 som tror att börsen kan gå ner senast det var så få var sommaren 1987 och alla vet vad som hände hösten 1987.

Publicerad 2014-09-11 16:17:38 i Ekonomi,

The bears moved up slightly to 14.1%, from 13.3% last issue after some new expressions of overvaluation concern. A week ago the reading was a low since 1987. Market highs after prolonged gains make the bearish case harder to defend. Many of the remaining bears expect the market to force the Fed's hand and boost rates sooner than expected, with a resulting large drop for stocks.

Vi lever i en bubbel ekonomi

Publicerad 2014-09-11 10:41:05 i Ekonomi,

 

When all is said and done, it all basically boils down to this: from Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid.

 
 

The bubble probably needs to continue in order to sustain the current global financial system and the necessary future deleveraging. However with yields moving ever lower in many parts of the world in recent times, partly due to weak growth, and with debt levels still moving higher, the chances are that most government bondholders are unlikely to achieve a positive real return over the medium to long-term from this starting point. Inflation or even the risk of sovereign restructuring will likely prevent this.

 

Tio skäl varför du skall köpa guld just nu.

Publicerad 2014-09-10 16:30:05 i Ekonomi,

Detta är en uppdatering från tidigare rekommendation (20140203) om att köpa guld: Guldpriset har sedan dess varit ganska oförändrat och handlas idag runt $1250. Precis som då var intresset för guld på absoluta botten och många menar att den uppåtgående trenden för guld har brutits. Men om man tittar på det fundamentala för guld så är trenden fortfarande uppåt och jag skall här ange tio skäl varför.

 1)      Efterfrågan från Asien håller i sig och då framför allt från Kina och Indien. Kineser vet vad det innebär att späda ut valutan med mera nytryckta pengar och köper därför guld för att skydda värdet av sina tillgångar. Detta kommer inte att minska utan snarare att öka då skulderna runt om i världen ökar exponentiellt. Guldproduktionen i världen är ca 2200 ton/år ex Kina och Ryssland som inte säljer sin egen produktion. Kina, Ryssland och Indien importerar idag ungefär hela årsproduktionen vilket innebär att det måste komma guld från någon annan stans för ett täcka efterfrågan. Mycket tyder på att Bank of England och FED har sålt eller leasat ut sitt guld och har därmed svårt att fortsätta och hålla priset nere.

 2)      Guld handlas från och till med backwardation vilket innebär att köparna betalar högre pris avista än vad som gäller på future marknaden. Köparna är således oroliga att det inte finns guld att leverera i framtiden. Detta fenomen är ytterst ovanligt när det gäller guld och visar att marknaden handlas under stor stress.

 3)      Under hela 2013 har man haft stora uttag ur samtliga ETF fonder som har guld som ända tillgång. Allt detta guld har stillat den ökade efterfrågan. Nu verkar det som om det finns inte mer guld att hämta från dessa fonder då den största ETF fonden GLD har haft ett ganska konstant innehav om ca 785 ton guld under hela detta år.

 4)      Tyskland och Österrike har gjort anspråk på att få en del av sitt guld levererat hem till sin lokala centralbank från BoE och FED. Detta har inte gått så bra då Tyskland exempelvis skulle få en del av sitt guld återlämnat under sju år. Detta indikerar helt klart att det är tomt på guld i valven hos BoE och FED:

 5)      Schweiz kommer att ha en folkomröstning den 30e november om att deras guld skall förvaras i hemlandet och ingen annan stans. Blir det ja så skall även 20% av Centralbankens tillgångar innehålla guld. Detta kan bli en riktig game changer för guldpriset då Schweiz skulle bli en stor netto köpare av guld.

 6)      Den 22 september öppnar man i Shanghai för future handel med guld. Den största andel guld handel i världen sker idag i Kina och detta kommer att få återspeglingar på hur priset för guld sätts på marknaden.

 7)      Handel i guld sker idag nästan uteslutande på pappersmarknaden. Vissa hävdar att det finns 100 gånger mer pappersguld än vad det finns fysiskt guld och leverera. Med tanke på att guldet handlas från och till under backwardation så är det mycket troligt att vi inom en mycket snar framtid får se default när det gäller att leverera.

 8)      Comex som sätter guldpriset i form av future kontrakt har rekord små lager. Kan nämnas att lagren av silver i Shanghai har sjunkit med ca 90% på mindre än ett år från ca 33 miljoner/oz till idag ca 2,9 Miljoner/oz. Med dagens minsknings takt så är det slut på silverlagret inom ca två månader och man måste då finna silver på en mycket tight marknad. Detta kan även få guldet att komma i obalans när fler kommer att begära leverans.

 9)      Guld producenter av guld har fått se sina aktier stiga ordentligt under 2014 och gruppen är klar vinnare under 2014. GDX som är ETF index för de största guldproducenterna har stigit med ca 10% under året vilket är en klar indikation att intresset för sektorn är tillbaka.

 10)   Valuta kriget som pågår runt om i världen och även den geopolitiska utvecklingen innebär att man skall ha en viss andel av sin portfölj i guld och silver.  Skuldbubblan som vi lever i ökar exponentiellt och kan ändas hållas vid liv genom nytryckta pengar. Detta leder obönhörligen till att fler och fler kommer att förstå att guld och silver är det som behåller köpkraften då papperspengarna framställs utan gränser.

 Det är nu bara att bestämma sig för om man skall ha fysiskt guld eller om man skall investera i bolag som producerar eller hittar nya fyndigheter. Man skall dock vara mycket försiktig med investeringar i pappersguld då man ej vet vad som händer då tillexempel Comex inte kan leverarea guld för sina utställda future kontrakt.

Senast rekommenderade jag att köpa producerande bolaget Lake Shore Gold men nu har aktien gått från ca 60cent till över en dollar och väljer istället att rekommendera ett streaming bolag som heter Sandstorm Gold. Handlas idag runt 5,60 dollar på kanadensiska börsen. När det gäller att köpa bolag med guld i marken så vidhåller jag att det bästa är att köpa det svenska bolaget Botnia Exploration som handlas runt 0,7 kronor. Du får guldet i marken för ca $30 och du behöver inte oroa dig över lagring och inte eller stöld utan endast vänta till guldet går upp till sitt rätta värde.

 

 

 

 

U.S. Economic Confidence Index är på stället stå.

Publicerad 2014-09-10 11:15:59 i Ekonomi,

So far, 2014 has been a unique year for the U.S. Economic Confidence Index in that it has been remarkably steady throughout the winter, spring, and summer. In previous years, the weekly index readings from January through August had high-to-low ranges of 17 to 36 index points. In 2014, the index has stayed within a narrower eight-point range.

Om det var någon som trodde att man löst problemen som föranledde förra krisen.

Publicerad 2014-09-08 11:17:46 i Ekonomi,

Those that are mocking those of us that are bearish should consider where we stand financially in comparison to previous crash cycles.  For example, the derivatives bubble is 20 percent larger than it was back in 2008, the "too big to fail banks" are 37 percent larger than they were back in 2008 and global debt levels are 40 percent larger than they were back in 2008.
Stock Market Crash - Public Domain

Är vi i en bubbla?????????????

Publicerad 2014-09-08 10:37:00 i Ekonomi,

Bubbles are hard to define and spot.  Bubbles are largely driven by psychology and emotions and move in an eradicate fashion.  A bubble occurs when an asset, commodity, or stock for example moves up in price with very little economic fundamentals to support it.  For example, real estate moving up with no actual income growth but people using leverage to go deep into debt.  Some tech companies today are looking very bubbly based on their earnings.

The stock market is looking extremely frothy at the moment:

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2014-09-05 12:20:15 i Ekonomi,

Gold and silver had a bad week, with gold falling $25 to a low of $1262 by the Comex close yesterday, and silver by $0.50. This morning UK-time prices opened a little better on overnight physical demand, no doubt stimulated by those lower prices. The background to this poor performance was dollar strength relative to weak currencies, with the yen, euro and pound all declining sharply.

It feels like the market is drained of all positive sentiment, which is reflected in the very low level of open interest in the futures market. These conditions are more consistent with a market that is bottoming out than one that is about to fall sharply. Meanwhile retail demand seems to be stabilising, with growing interest for coins in the west, and weekly physical deliveries in Shanghai have quietly doubled over the last two months. Demand for physical gold has the stealthy effect of increasing the gearing of the shorts in the paper markets.
However, it looks like the short sellers have returned in some force, with good Comex volume last Tuesday and healthy turnover again yesterday (Thursday). Open interest in gold rose, which with a falling price confirms futures are being driven by an increase in short positions, most probably in the managed money category. This is shown in the chart below, and is particularly noticeable since 27th August, the start of the current decline.Gold Open Interest 05092014 

The silver chart shows the same symptoms of short-selling, after a heavy fall in open interest on 25-27 August, and a sharp jump yesterday of about 3,700 contracts. In silver's case there appears to be bedrock support at the $19 level.

 Silver Open Interest 05092014

It is not sufficient to say that a strong dollar will automatically lead to a lasting fall in the gold price. The dollar's strength over the last few weeks has been mostly a reflection of weakness of other major currencies: the yen took an overdue tumble given Japan's deteriorating financial condition, the ECB cut interest rates from next-to-nothing to almost nothing, and sterling has been spooked by growing support for Scottish independence. None of this reflects a stagnant US economy, and there has been no change in the outlook for US interest rates to bolster the dollar.

A more valid driver of the gold price is changing perceptions of financial and systemic risk. It is clear from current equity and bond markets, which are rising on diminishing volatility, that they are now regarded to be low-risk markets. This situation can persist for a while, as anyone who has sold into a bubble too early will confirm; but the surer way to lose money on anything other than the short-term is by investing in over-priced bonds and equities instead of oversold gold, on the basis that perceptions of risk will normalise.

Guld har fomaterat en botten och dollarn är nära en topp

Publicerad 2014-09-05 10:43:37 i Ekonomi,

Gold: The gold chart shows 20 years of prices with Blue vertical lines every 56 months. Note the lows in 1999, 2004, 2008, and 2013. Gold appears to have made a long term low in 2013 – 2014 and has built a base from which another rally should appear. The MACD and TDI indicators are oversold and indicate strong rally potential. Further, my long-term empirical gold model indicates that current gold prices are too low by about 20%, which will provide a “tail-wind” for gold prices over the next several years, independent of massive QE, more wars, dollar weakness, and economic slumps that create even more unpayable debt.
Gold 20 yr cycles 1996 2014 price

Dollar Index: Consider the following grAph of monthly prices over nearly 30 years and the vertical blue lines every 75 months. Note the alternating high – low pattern with a high in 1989, low in 1995, high in 2002, low in 2008, and possible high in 2014. The dollar index might move higher and take longer but it could be topping now. The monthly TDI is modestly over-bought and the weekly (not shown) is strongly over-bought. The dollar index could be peaking.

 Dollar 30 yr cycles 1986 2014 price

S&P 500 är nu på toppen i sju års cykeln

Publicerad 2014-09-05 10:39:54 i Ekonomi,

S&P 500 Index: Consider the following graph of monthly prices for 30 years. The blue vertical lines are drawn every 81 months – about 7 years. Note the highs in 1987, 1994, 2000, 2007, and 2014, and note the current “over-bought” condition of the S&P as indicated by the MACD and TDI indicators. This graph does not conclusively inform us that the S&P is ready to correct, but it does indicate that the S&P could be forming a 7 year cyclic top with a low due perhaps in 2016 – 2019.

 SP 30 yr cycles 1984 2014 price

Historien lär oss att börsen kommer stå betydligt lägre än idag inom de närmaset åren.

Publicerad 2014-09-02 10:19:17 i Ekonomi,

At some point in the next five years, the U.S. stock market is likely to be more than 30% lower than where it stands today.

That is the frightening conclusion in a recent study by Swiss economic and financial consultancy Wellershoff & Partners. The company, whose chief executive is former UBS chief economist Klaus Wellershof, found a strikingly strong inverse correlation between the stock market’s valuation and its maximum drawdown over the subsequent five years.

The reason this finding is such bad news for U.S. stocks: As judged by the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio that is championed by recent Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, the U.S. stock market’s current valuation is at one of its highest levels in history. The latest CAPE reading is 25.69, which is 61% higher than its historical median of 15.95 (and 55% higher than the historical mean of 16.55).

 

Saxat från James Turks blogg

Publicerad 2014-09-02 10:08:00 i Ekonomi,

Understand That Gold is Manipulated

 
The Fed’s balance sheet hit a new milestone last week. For the first time ever, its assets have hit a new record by expanding to more than $4.4 trillion. That means a lot of inflation is in the pipeline.
Anyway, if we use history as a guide, these economic reports and FOMC announcements in the past have repeatedly been met with intervention by central planners in an attempt to keep the price of gold and silver under their thumb. No Fed official wants to be embarrassed by a rising gold price when testifying before Congress, which explains why the gold price dropped during Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony two weeks ago.
Similarly, no Fed official wants to admit that six years of unprecedented money printing has failed to produce a meaningful economic recovery because it would expose the lie that central planners and their money printing are beneficial.
Fortunately, in addition to more people understanding that the gold price is manipulated, more people are questioning the role of the Fed and starting to understand that the Fed serves the banks and the federal government, not the American people, by printing money to perpetuate the illusion that an over-leveraged federal government is solvent when in fact it is not.

Det blir svårt att få fart på ekonomin när folket inte har någon löneökning

Publicerad 2014-09-02 09:42:03 i Ekonomi,

wage growth

·        Before the crash in 2007, the average household in the top 5% of earners had 16.5 times as much wealth as the average U.S. household. Now the top 5% has 24 times as much wealth as the average overall household.

·        The top 20% of U.S. households watched their income grow by an average of $8,358 a year from the crash until 2012. The lowest 20% of earners? They witnessed a $275 decline per year. And that is data right from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

·        The average wage for new jobs is 23% less than the average annual wage of jobs that were lost during the recession.. And while the latest jobs report bragged that the economy gained 209,000 jobs, there was zero wage growth.

Världens inflation fortsätter att sjunka

Publicerad 2014-09-01 10:54:15 i Ekonomi,

Our world inflation proxy, which simply takes the equal-weighted, year-over-year change for 33 different countries CPI, hit its lowest level since November 2009. The proxy stands at 1.72%  which is just lower than the level it hit in February. We identify six countries, all in Europe, where the year-over-year change in consumer prices is basically zero (Switzerland, Sweden) or there is currently outright deflation in consumer prices. Charts of those are countries are below.

image

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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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