macrogoldsilver.blogg.se

Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Dagens macro siffror i USA bidrar inte direkt till att det behövs någon högre ränta. Mera uppbyggnad av lager blir man inte rik på.

Publicerad 2015-08-31 16:49:01 i Ekonomi,

Production and Prices plunged holding Milwaukee's ISM near 2-year lows...

 

But then Chicago PMI hit...

And underlying factors were weak...

  • MNI CHICAGO REPORT: BAROMETER 54.4 AUG VS 54.7 JUL SEASADJ
  • MNI CHICAGO: SUPPLIER DELIVERIES RISE TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH
  • MNI CHICAGO: EMPLOYMENT UP BUT IN CONTRACTION FOR 4TH MONTH
  • MNI CHICAGO: PRICES PAID FALL BACK BELOW 50
  • MNI CHICAGO: INVENTORIES COMPONENT HIGHEST SINCE NOV 2014
  • MNI CHICAGO: ORDER BACKLOGS CONTRACT AT FASTER RATE
  • MNI CHICAGO: PRODUCTION AND NEW ORDERS EASE SLIGHTLY

Some purchasers reported enough work to keep their facilities "busy" but said that there were a lot of small orders with large orders lacking.

Part of the resilience in Production and New Orders was due to stock growth as companies built inventories at the fastest pace since November 2014.

Kina säljer dollar skuldsedlar i stora mängder och frågan blir vem skall köpa dessa om inte FED trycker mera pengar

Publicerad 2015-08-27 17:58:38 i Ekonomi,

China has likely soldsomewhere on the order of $100 billion in US Treasurys in the past two weeks alone in open FX ops to steady the yuan. Put simply, as part of China's devaluation and subsequent attempts to contain said devaluation, China has been purging an epic amount of Treasurys. 
 
China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter.

 Channels for such transactions include China selling directly, as well as through agents in Belgium and Switzerland, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information isn’t public. China has communicated with U.S. authorities about the sales, said another person. They didn’t reveal the size of the disposals.

The latest available Treasury data and estimates by strategists suggest that China controls $1.48 trillion of U.S. government debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That includes about $200 billion held through Belgium, which Nomura Holdings Inc. says is home to Chinese custodial accounts.

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Hur systemet fungerar och vi snart får se mer QE

Publicerad 2015-08-27 17:48:00 i Ekonomi,

“Policymakers responded to the financial crisis with easy monetary policy and low interest rates. The critics — including us — argued against ‘solving a debt crisis with more debt.’ Put differently, we said that QE was necessary, but not sufficient for a recovery. We are now coming to the moment of reckoning: central bankers look naked, and markets have nothing else to believe in.”

The Emperor Is Naked…

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Jim Sinclaire menar att guld och silver kommer vara din livbåt när systemet faller sönder som ett korthus.

Publicerad 2015-08-25 11:44:36 i Ekonomi,

  • As for gold and silver, these markets are both REALLY tight if you want the physical metal. If you are trading paper metal …oh well, can’t help you.
  • This is the Great Credit Unwind and as such, currencies of all sorts, including the dollar, will take turns crashing. Watch the various sovereign treasury prices and yields (also CDS credit default swaps) as a clue to which country is experiencing an “attack du jour”.
  • Gold and silver will be your only lifeboats as they are no one’s liability in a world where everything including the money in your pocket is someone else’s liability.”

 

image: http://www.maxkeiser.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/goldlifeboat.png

Gold and Silver Lifeboat

 



Är Saudi Arabia nästa land att släppa peggen till dollarn och vad händer då med Petro Dollarn som olje valuta

Publicerad 2015-08-25 09:42:52 i Ekonomi,

Expectations for an FX regime change in Saudi Arabia in the face of a ballooning budget gap and the first current account deficit in a decade are readily apparent in riyal 12-month forwards and just to drive the point home, have a look at the following, which shows thatanticipation for a dirham deval is running at a veritable fever pitch: 

 

Lyssna på Bill Holter

Publicerad 2015-08-20 10:45:42 i Ekonomi,

 

Did China just join the currency war? What will the world look like in 6 months? Bill Holter questions what will even be left…

 

 

 

Hedge Fonder är nett korta guld medan dom som arbetar inom industrin har rekord lite kortningar vilket dom naturligt skall ha då dom säljer framtida produktion på termin. Således väldigt bullish för guldmarknaden.

Publicerad 2015-08-19 17:24:15 i Ekonomi,

For the first time since records began, hedge funds are net short gold futures, according to CFTC data...

 

 [4]

 

This is what happened the last time gold saw a 'low' net long position...

And as of this week, Commercial Hedgers are holding the lowest net short position in gold futures since the launch of the gold bull market in 2001.

 

Inte många tror på guldpriset vilket indikerar att det kan inte finnas många säljare kvar i marknaden

Publicerad 2015-08-18 14:19:38 i Ekonomi,

As you can see below, commodities are generally not getting much love right now, but gold manages to stand out as the least loved of all. Not even crude oil attracts such a paucity of bullish opinion right now, in spite of having suffered a significantly larger and more relentless price collapse:

3-Commodities Optix comparison

 

There are only 14% bulls left in gold, when combining all major surveys and positioning data. Platinum with 16% bulls is fairly close, and in commodity futures, only cocoa currently exhibits a bullish majority.

Since sentiment and positioning to a large extent simply tend to follow prices, this doesn’t guarantee anything, but the probability of a counter-trend move (in this case a rally) increases the more extreme sentiment and positioning data become. Once everybody has already adopted bearish positions, there is so to speak “no-one left to sell”.

Junk Bond marknaden brukar vara tidig på och tala om vart vi är på väg.

Publicerad 2015-08-18 14:14:00 i Ekonomi,

How suddenly? This chart of yields at the riskiest end of the junk bond market – bonds rated CCC and below – shows what happened. These bonds have been selling off over the past 12 months, with exception of the sucker rally earlier this year, and their yieldsmore than doubled from less than 7.9% in June a year ago to 16.2% by Thursday evening. And Thursday was a massacre:

US-junk-bonds-CCC-2011_2015_8-Yuan-rout

On Thursday, yields jumped 2.6 percentage points, from 13.58% to 16.18%, as these junk bonds plunged. Those kinds of single-day vertigo-inducing sell-offs are rare in normal times, and there haven’t been any since the Financial Crisis.

5-CCC-yields

Lyssna på Doug Casey och Jeff Berwick

Publicerad 2015-08-13 16:28:00 i Ekonomi,

NY Times best selling author and world renowned investor Doug Casey, along with Jeff Berwick of Anarchast fame sit down with GoldSeek TV Anchor Vanessa Collette for an in-depth, unfiltered & unscripted conversation about a potential imminent financial collapse. Doug believes we are now exiting the eye of the hurricane and rapidly heading towards what he terms the Greater Depression, and Jeff Berwick believes a collapse is being planned for September, moving the world closer to a one world government.

 

Lyssna på Marc Faber

Publicerad 2015-08-13 15:38:25 i Ekonomi,

 
Gloom, Boom & Doom Report Editor Marc Faber discusses his outlook for Greece after the referendum. He speaks on “Bloomberg Markets.”

Lyssna på James Turk

Publicerad 2015-08-13 15:35:48 i Ekonomi,

 
James Turk interviewed on GoldFiend.com discussing Gold, Silver, Hyperinflation, the US Dollar Collapse, the Sovereign Debt Crisis and more.

Lyssna på SGTREPORT

Publicerad 2015-08-12 12:38:50 i Ekonomi,

 

Jeff says, “China could have 4,000 tons of gold RIGHT NOW and not have done anything at all the least bit fraudulent or dishonest (with its “official” reporting of 1,658 tons) BECAUSE all of the gold it adds from its DOMESTIC SOURCES NEVER has to be reported!”

 

Inga reala lönelyft men betydligt högre skatter leder knappast till någon högre tillväxt

Publicerad 2015-08-11 16:13:58 i Ekonomi,

Wages and salaries are barely keeping up with inflation, real household incomes are down 8.5% since 2000 and state and local government taxes and spending are rising at twice the rate of inflation--where does this lead to?

1. The bond market may choke if state and local governments try to "borrow our way to prosperity" as they did in the 2000s.

2. If state and local taxes keep soaring while wages stagnate and household income declines, households will have less cash to spend on consumption.

3. Declining consumer spending = recession.

4. In recessions, sales and income taxes decline as households spending drops. This will crimp state and local tax revenues.

5. This sets up an unvirtuous cycle: state and local governments will have to raise taxes to maintain their trend of higher spending. Higher taxes reduce household spending, which reduces income and sales tax revenues. In response, state and local governments raise taxes again. This further suppresses disposable income and consumption. In other words, raising taxes offers diminishing returns.

At some point, local government revenues will decline despite tax increases and the bond market will raise the premium on local government debt in response to the rising risks.

When borrowing become prohibitive (or impossible) and raising taxes no longer generates more revenues, state and local governments will have to cut expenditures. Given their many contractual obligations, these cuts will slice very quickly into sinews and bone.

Det är nu man skall köpa guld bolagen

Publicerad 2015-08-11 15:58:01 i Ekonomi,

Gold miners are more like lottery tickets than like steady businesses. But unlike lottery tickets,you can greatly increase your odds of getting rich if you buy gold miners at the right time.

One of Buffett’s most famous quotes is “Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” There’s extreme fear around gold miners right now. The S&P/TSX Venture, an index that includes many small gold miners, has dropped to its lowest level in history.

As you can see from this chart, the index goes through huge booms and busts. Up 274%... down 80%... up 405%... down 83%. Right now, it’s in its worst bust ever:

Alasdair Macleod från GoldMoney om guldet och silvret

Publicerad 2015-08-11 15:52:47 i Ekonomi,

By Alasdair Macleod

Chart 1 Gold and Silver

Gold and silver traded in a tight range this week on low futures volumes.

Last Friday the gold price rallied from $1,080 to $1,101, last night it closed at $1,089. Silver also traded in a narrow range though both are slightly firmer in early European trade this morning.

The market background is extraordinary. Last week gold's open interest fell sharply, suggesting that some of the oversold condition was being unwound: not a bit of it, it was only spread positions being closed, and for the second week in a row the Managed Money category's net short position increased to an extreme condition previously unrecorded. This is shown in the next chart.

Chart 2 Managed Money

Isolating the short side is even more remarkable.

 Chart 3 MM Gold Shorts
Since the date of the last data input (28 July) open interest has fallen by only 4,000 contracts, suggesting the speculative money is still very short. It would be remarkable if these market conditions are not followed by a massive bear squeeze.

Investors in gold ETFs such as GLD are liquidating dismayed by the negative trend. Some of the gold released is simply migrating east, but this is small in comparison to the increase in demand from value buyers around the world. In the week ending 24 July, the Shanghai Gold Exchange delivered 73.3 tonnes into public hands, and India has also reported a substantial increase in gold imports in recent months as well. And that's only the public in two countries. Recent reports suggest a global revival in physical demand from South Korea to Europe. British gold sovereigns are in short supply at some dealers suggesting demand has picked up in the UK. Coin dealers in the US are also reporting high demand.

How much all this amounts to one can only guess, but a figure of between two and three times mining output seems likely. The balance must be coming out of vault storage, as has been the case since April 2013. At these prices scrappage must have declined.

There is evidence that shortages of deliverable gold are also developing on Comex, where registered gold, in other words gold in Comex vaults available for delivery, fell to a very low 362,000 ounces. This is at the same time holders of the August contract have been standing for delivery, creating potential difficulties. The short term problem appears to have been partially resolved with a transfer in JPMorgan's vault of 276,000 ounces on Tuesday from the eligible category, or gold held in safe custody. Whether or not this is JPM acting out of charitable feelings towards the market or on behalf of a government agency to create deliverable liquidity we can only guess. Either way, it should be observed that if "the establishment" is prepared to bail out the market, Comex could become an easy source of physical gold for large buyers, given shortages and delays in delivery are common elsewhere.

It is hard to see that being permitted for long. Considering all these factors the odds favour a price recovery from current levels, if only to call a halt to the underlying redistribution of bullion.
 
 

Russell 2000 vid känsligt tekniskt läge

Publicerad 2015-08-11 12:02:55 i Ekonomi,

Russell 2000: A-D breakdown is risk to big 1200 support

Similar to the NYSE Comp, the Russell 2000 also shows a potential head and shoulders top. After holding its 200-day MA in late July, the Russell 2000 broke and closed below this important longer-term moving average on Thursday and Friday. This coincides with a fresh break to new lows on the small cap advance-decline line and places big Russell 2000 support at 1212-1206 or 1200 at risk. Below this support would confirm a top and suggest deeper risk to 1154-1134 (early 2015/late 2014 chart support) and then 11151110. First resistance comes in at 1245-1255 but the potential head and shoulders top is intact while below 1268-1278.

Det är mycket statistik som nu talar för att USA är på väg in i en recession

Publicerad 2015-08-11 11:25:00 i Ekonomi,

 

Rail traffic fell in July from a year ago as an increase in container volumes couldn’t offset a steep decline in oil and coal shipments, the Association of American Railroads said in its monthly report Friday.

The number of carloads carrying oil and petroleum products dropped 13.6% from a year agoto 67,909 last month, while coal volumes sank 12.5%. Container shipments rose 3.8% to 1.2 million. Traffic overall fell 1.8% to 2.7 million, the association said.

Oil-train shipments have tumbled this year, hurt by plunging prices for crude and concerns about the safety of transporting petroleum by rail. That, plus declining demand for coal from power plants and overseas buyers, has hit railroad operators’ earnings.

In an economy where 70% of the GDP is in the hands of consumer spending, a collapse in spending intentions to multi-year low levels means just one thing: recession.

 

The ratio of wholesale inventories-to-sales pushed back up to 1.3 - its highest since the recession and is flashing an enormous red flag for an imminent recesion in America...

...

Kina skriver ned värdet av Yuanen med nästan 2% mot $ och får fart på guldet.

Publicerad 2015-08-11 11:20:10 i Ekonomi,

 

Given The IMF's delay decision, it seems that PBOC has decided maintaining a stable FX rate in the face of collapsing stock market is no longer in its best interest. Although the spin is already out...

  • *PBOC SAYS YUAN EFFECTIVE FX RATE STRONGER THAN OTHER CURRENCIES
  • *PBOC SAYS TODAY'S YUAN FIXING IS ONE-OFF ADJUSTMENT
  • *CHINA TO KEEP YUAN STABLE AT REASONABLE, EQUILIBIRIUM LEVEL
  • *PBOC SAYS YUAN EXCHANGE RATE DEVIATED FROM MARKET EXPECTATION
 
 

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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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