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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Vad händer med räntan i Kina

Publicerad 2015-12-23 11:58:48 i Ekonomi,

 it appears that banks in Hong Kong are desperate to borrow Yuan (or scared to lend) as overnight HIBOR just exploded higher to 9.45% - a record for the interbank offered rate. The HKD and CNY/CNH FX markets remain relatively stable (with Yuan fixed marginally higher again for the 3rd day).

From sub-2% a week ago (before The Fed hiked rates) to 9.45%, the overnight rates has exploded...

The last time 1-week rates spiked like this, US equity markets crashed...

Skulderna måste fortsätta växa vilket endast kan ske med ökade säkerheter som högre börs, fastigheter och andra tillgångar. Högre ränta är därmed otänkbart.

Publicerad 2015-12-23 11:50:00 i Ekonomi,

Inbäddad bildlänk
 
The chart above shows how FOMC members believe interest rates over the coming years. The current implication is that rates will rise to 1.40% by the end of 2016, which would take four hikes of 25 basis points each. It is also implied that rates will rise another 100 basis points in 2017. If we believed that these projections would be realised, then we would be limit short gold. However, we instead hold the view that rates will in fact rise more slowly over the coming years.

Ryssland fortsätter att köpa guld, 22 ton i november

Publicerad 2015-12-23 11:42:06 i Ekonomi,

Russia has so far added around 187 tons into its reserves this year. The November addition is Russia's ninth straight month of increase.

MOSCOW (Bullion Street): Russia has extended their gold buying spree by adding to their bullion reserves in November, data released by the Central Bank showed on Tuesday.

Russia added 22 tons to bring its gold holdings to 1,392.813 tons, or 44.78 million ounces, seventh biggest in the world.


Lyssna på Max Keiser

Publicerad 2015-12-21 12:52:23 i Ekonomi,

Ukraine has imposed a moratorium on the $3 billion Russian debt repayment, said the country’s Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk at a cabinet meeting on Friday. The announcement comes ahead of the December 20 deadline for the debt redemption.

 

 
 

 

Silverpriset sjunker som en sten samtidigt minskar produktionen kraftigt och efterfrågan är fortsatt stark. Någonting är fel här.

Publicerad 2015-12-18 13:31:54 i Ekonomi,

U.S. silver production for September fell a staggering 20% compared to the same month last year:
 
U.S.-Silver-Production-SEP-2014-vs-2015
 
 

As we can see from the chart U.S. silver production fell to 82.6 metric tons (mt) in September compared to 103 mt during the same month last year.  This amounts to a decline of 20.4 metric tons or a 20% plunge versus last year.

This is a large amount if we compare the total decline year to date in 2015 (JAN-SEP) is only 41 mt (5%).  I asked the USGS silver specialist if he thought the September’s production figures would be revised higher in the following months.  He responded by saying, “Probably not.”

Falling silver production is also taking place in several of the top producers in the world:

Mexico = -4% (Jan-Sep)

Chile = -4% (Jan-Aug)

Canada = -23% (Jan-Oct)

Australia = -41% (Jan-Aug)

(data from Canada Dept of Natural Resources, Mexico INEGI & Chilean Copper Commission)

As I have stated in many articles and interviews, PEAK SILVER will occur first in the base metal mining industry where the majority of by-product silver is produced.  According to the data from the 2015 World Silver Survey, 55% of all silver produced in 2014 came as a by-product of zinc, lead and copper production.  Furthermore, 13% came as a by-product of gold mining, while the remaining 31% was from primary silver production.

Global silver production will fall more rapidly in the following years as an increasing number of base metal mines shut down due to lower copper, lead and zinc prices.  This will occur right at a time when investors finally realize just how undervalued silver is compared to most of the highly overvalued paper garbage the world is invested in.

Alasdair Macleod från GoldMoney om guldet och silvret under veckan

Publicerad 2015-12-18 13:27:23 i Ekonomi,

Chart 1 18122015

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Bank raised its Fed Funds Rate target to 0.25%-0.5%, which is the interest rate paid on bank reserves held at the Fed.

The rise was widely expected, the Fed having signalled it in advance. Having drifted somewhat lower ahead of the announcement, precious metals prices recovered some ground on the announcement, before sinking lower yesterday. Gold is down from $1072 on last Friday's close to $1054 and silver is down from $13.93 to $13.75 in early European trade this morning.

The logic behind the rise in interest rates, it seems, is that domestic credit is expanding at a moderate rate of about 4%, reflecting a pick-up in demand from the non-financial sector. Typically, this is financing purchases of homes and big-ticket items such as motor vehicles, and is taken by the Fed to be evidence of recovering demand. The Fed hopes that a modest and gradual rise in interest rates, perhaps in four quarterly steps next year, will allow inflation to rise in a controlled manner towards the 2% target, particularly after recent falls in energy and commodity prices drop out of the back-end of the inflation statistics. Putting to one side the fact that every time the Fed embarks on a policy of gently rising interest rates, it turns out not to be gentle and ends up provoking a stock market crash, the plan is widely thought to be credible.

No allowance has been made for the debt situation, where yield spreads are widening alarmingly, and commodity-related debt looks like being the default story for 2016. No allowance is made for the gathering evidence of a severe slump in world trade, and therefore of an economic crisis everywhere but America. These concerns were dismissed by Fed Chair Yellen in the press briefing that followed the interest rate announcement.

That great American satirist, Tom Lehrer, had a template for the Fed's policy in his song about Werner von Braun, Hitler's rocket scientist who worked for America after WW2: "'Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down? / That's not my department,' said Werner von Braun." Similarly, the Fed claims its business is to manage US monetary policy, and other countries' economic affairs are not its concern.

It is hard to avoid the conclusion that this attitude will be the Fed's undoing, when all markets are demonstrably adrift from economic reality. The black swans are getting restless.

Finally, by way of illustration the chart below shows how extreme the hedge funds positions have become in the paper gold market that is Comex.

Chart 2 18122015

 

Only once before, in the history of Comex's disaggregated data, have the speculators in the investment management industry been net short, and that was on 28th July last. Today's position is even more extreme. Doubtless, similar positions exist in other commodity contracts. History tells that when any trade, in this case long-dollar and short-everything-else gets this one-sided the reversal will be swift, unexpected and brutal.

Fåtal aktier som håller S&P 500 uppe. FEDs PPT behöver således bara köpa en ETF med dessa aktier så håller dom marknaden positiv

Publicerad 2015-12-14 13:56:59 i Ekonomi,

These two indices tracked each other for most of 2015. However, in recent weeks the S&P 500 has pulled ahead of the equally weighted S&P, which is now down 4% on the year.

This is a big red flag. It’s confirmation that a few big companies are holding up the stock market.

This includes Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), and Netflix (NFLX).

Hur länge till kan ökade skulder vara nyckeln till högre tillväxt då räntan är noll och tillväxten avtar

Publicerad 2015-12-10 12:35:57 i Ekonomi,

Since 1970 the US has been compounding its total credit market debts at the astounding rate of nearly 8% per annum which gives us a chart that swoops into the air, and which reveals an astonishing 39-fold expansion since 1970 to nearly $60 trillion dollars:
 

Why is this astonishing? Isn’t it true that our economy has expanded tremendously since 1970, as well? After all, if our economy has expanded by the same amount, then the advance is not astonishing at all.

But sadly, the economy, as measure by Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, has grown by less than half as much over the same time frame:

Om det är någon som tvivlar på det monetära Ponzi upplägget. Dessa upplägg kan hålla på längre än vad någon kan förutse men dom kan inte hålla på för evigt och när dom raseras går det väldigt fort och då gäller det att man varit förbered

Publicerad 2015-12-10 12:04:00 i Ekonomi,

Signs of the coming reset:

Zerohedge reported that:

“Central banks around the world, including China’s, have shifted decisively into investing in equities.” [This should not be necessary.]

 “a cluster of central banking investors has become major players on world equity markets…. Confirms $29.2 trillion in market investments.”  [How real are prices when $29 Trillion of “funny money” has levitated markets?]

From Egon von Greyerz:

Unprecedented money printing by the Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, International Monetary Fund, and others is guaranteed. There are global debts of $225 trillion and derivatives of $1.5 quadrillion that can never be repaid with real money. With interest rates at zero or even negative, central banks have run out of tools to save the world economy. The only thing they have left is money printing, though they probably know that this will have no effect because you cannot create wealth with worthless pieces of paper.”  [Dishonest money becomes more desperate.]

 

 

 

Man plockar ut fysiskt guld ur ETF fonder för leverans när det inte finns guld att få tag på någon annan stans

Publicerad 2015-12-04 11:40:12 i Ekonomi,

Generally speaking, when this indicator goes outside +/-2%, it marks a turning point for gold prices. Just a couple of weeks ago it got all the way down to -4.6% as the gold price selloff was reaching a point of exhaustion. That did not mark a price bottom though, and now we are seeing a further washout by traders fleeing GLD.
 
 
 

Pressat silverpris ger rekord efterfrågan på silver mynt

Publicerad 2015-12-02 12:41:01 i Ekonomi,

According to the Silver Institute 2015 Interim Report, total sales of official silver coins will reach 130 million oz (Moz) this year. If we look at the chart below, we can see the huge increase in official coin sales since the first collapse of the U.S. Investment Banking and Housing Industry in 2008:
Global-Official-Silver-Coin-Sales-2003-2015

Nio aktier håller S&P 500 under armarna och dom är dessutom extremt dyra

Publicerad 2015-12-02 11:42:11 i Ekonomi,

On Friday, Financial Times explained that nine giant companies are propping up the S&P 500 this year. The nine stocks are Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX), Priceline (PCLN), eBay (EBAY), Starbucks (SBUX), and Salesforce (CRM). Investment research firm Ned Davis calls them the “Nifty Nine”.

If the Nifty Nine were an index, it would be up 60% on the year, according to Financial Timesresearch.

The Nifty Nine is propping up the rest of the market. That’s because the S&P 500 is weighted by company size. Bigger companies influence its performance more than smaller companies.

For example, Google is the second-largest company in the S&P 500. It’s up 43% on the year. Amazon is the sixth-largest company. It’s up 117%. Facebook is the eighth-largest. It’s up 35%.

However, the median S&P 500 stock is down 12% from its 52-week high, according to Business Insider.

•  In a healthy bull market, a large percentage of stocks “participate” in the rally…

Today, the number of rising stocks is dwindling. Just a few large companies are propping up the market.

On average, stocks in the Nifty Nine trade at a 746% premium to the S&P 500...

Yuanen ingår nu i IMFs SDR valuta och blir därmed en etablerad handelsvaluta

Publicerad 2015-12-01 11:05:23 i Ekonomi,

The International Monetary Fund’s executive board, which represents the fund’s 188 member nations, decided the yuan meets the standard of being “freely usable” and will join the dollar, euro, pound and yen in its Special Drawing Rights basket, the organization said Monday in a statement. Approval was expected after IMF Managing Director Christine Lagardeannounced Nov. 13 that her staff recommended inclusion, a position she supported.

It’s the first change in the SDR’s currency composition since 1999, when the euro replaced the deutsche mark and French franc. It’s also a milestone in a decades-long ascent toward international credibility for the yuan, which was created after World War II and for years could be used only domestically in the Communist-controlled nation. The IMF reviews the composition of the basket every five years and rejected the yuan during the last review, in 2010, saying it didn’t meet the necessary criteria.

“The renminbi’s inclusion in the SDR is a clear indication of the reforms that have been implemented and will continue to be implemented and is a clear, stronger representation of the global economy,” Lagarde said Monday during a press briefing at the IMF’s headquarters in Washington. Renminbi is the currency’s official name and means “the people’s currency” in Mandarin; yuan is the unit.

china boosts gold reserves by nearly 14 tonnes in october

Vi har nu 294 ägare till samma ounce guld hos Comex. Hur länge till kan dom pressa priset med att sälja guld som inte finns.

Publicerad 2015-12-01 10:47:00 i Ekonomi,

As of the latest Comex activity update, on Friday the Registered gold held by JPM dropped another 2,802 ounces to a record low and virtually negligible 7,975 ounces, essentially equivalent to zero as shown in the chart below, even as JPM's eligible gold has also been seeing a substantial decline in recent months.

But while the decline of JPM gold has long been noted, it was the latest drop in total Comex registered gold which has again raised eyebrows, and which contrary to expectations it would be replenished either from external inflows or by conversion from Eligible both of which have not happened, has instead continued to decline. According to the latest data, total Registered gold dropped by another 11% overnight to just 134,877 ounces, just over 4 tonnes and another all time low...

... and since the gold open interest remains largely unchanged, the physical gold coverage ratio, or the ratio of gold claims to Registered gold, has just hit an all time high of 294 ounces of paper for every ounces of physical.

 

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Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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