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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Putin retar upp USA genom att göra affärer utanför Petro Dollarn.

Publicerad 2015-02-10 10:27:05 i Ekonomi,

Russia and Egypt might soon exclude the US dollar and use their national currencies in the settlement of accounts in bilateral trade, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview to Egyptian media ahead of his Monday visit to the country.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (RIA Novosti / Mihail Metzel)
Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (RIA Novosti / Mihail Metzel)
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Märkligt att det behövs en vänster kille som finansminister i Grekland för att sanningen om läget inom EU skall komma fram

Publicerad 2015-02-10 10:23:56 i Ekonomi,

“The euro is fragile, it’s like building a castle of cards, if you take out the Greek card the others will collapse.” Varoufakis said according to an Italian transcript of the interview released by RAI ahead of broadcast.

The euro zone faces a risk of fragmentation and “de-construction” unless it faces up to the fact that Greece, and not only Greece, is unable to pay back its debt under the current terms, Varoufakis said.

“I would warn anyone who is considering strategically amputating Greece from Europe because this is very dangerous,” he said. “Who will be next after us? Portugal? What will happen when Italy discovers it is impossible to remain inside the straitjacket of austerity?”

Yanis Varoufakis - posted to Twitter by Utopian Fireman

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Enligt Greenspan så är det bäst för Grekland att lämna EU.

Publicerad 2015-02-10 10:21:02 i Ekonomi,

Greenspan bedömer chansen som mycket stor att Grekland måste lämna EU. Frågan är vad som händer med Euro kursen då det enligt Bank for International Settlements finns derivat som är kopplade till kursen i storleksordningen 26,45 triljoner dollar. För att få lite perspektiv på beloppet så är USAs samlade BNP ca 18 triljoner dollar. Den totala globala derivat marknaden är uppskattad till mer än 700 triljoner dollar så det gäller att hålla tungan i rätt mun. 

 

Mr Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, said: “I believe [Greece] will eventually leave. I don’t think it helps them or the rest of the eurozone – it is just a matter of time before everyone recognizes that parting is the best strategy.

“The problem is that there there is no way that I can conceive of the euro of continuing, unless and until all of the members of eurozone become politically integrated – actually even just fiscally integrated won’t do it.”

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Kineserna fortsätter att köpa allt guld som produceras lämnar inget åt resten av världen.

Publicerad 2015-02-09 11:23:18 i Ekonomi,

Total SGE Withdrawals 255t In January, Up 4 % y/y

In the last trading week of January another huge quantity of gold left the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE). According to the latest SGE data nearly 54 tonnes were withdrawn in week 4 (January 26 – 30), down 24 % w/w. Year to date a staggering 255 tonnes has been withdrawn, up 4 % from the strongest January ever in 2014.

Shanghai Gold Exchange SGE withdrawals delivery 2015 week 4, dips

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Säsongs justeringar av nya jobb i USA verkar kunna få fram vilken siffra som helst

Publicerad 2015-02-09 11:04:25 i Ekonomi,

In December, 2014, there were 141.483 million jobs in this country. Last month — January, 2015 — there were only 138.728 million. Do the math. That equals a loss of 2.755 million jobs for January.

As I said, it’s perfectly normal for jobs to disappear after the holidays. And that’s why Labor tinkers with its numbers and why it came up with the seasonally adjustment growth of 257,000 jobs that you saw in the press release and all the headlines.

But here’s the thing. Seasonal adjustments can go wacky. And they can be manipulated, although you’ll have to draw your own conclusion on that last point.

Let’s take a look at the seasonal adjustment that occurred one year earlier when employment in January, 2014 — after being seasonally adjusted — rose by a very disappointing 113,000 jobs. (This was later revised to a still-weak 166,000 jobs.)

Remember, I’m comparing apples to apples here — the adjustments for two consecutive Januarys.

The untouched, raw data shows there were 138.327 million jobs in the US in December 2013. That number dropped to 135.516 million in January 2014.

So, before seasonal adjustments there was a loss of 2.811 million jobs in this country during January 2014.

The question is: How can a real-life loss of 2.755 million jobs in January 2015 be seasonally adjusted into a healthy, headline-grabbing gain of 257,000 jobs when a real-life loss of 2.811 million jobs the year before resulted in anemic growth — after seasonal adjustments — of just 113,000 (later revised to 166,000) jobs?

The answer is: it can’t.

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Lägre vinster i USA för Q4

Publicerad 2015-02-09 10:27:54 i Ekonomi,

Quarterly earnings fell (yes fell) 2% from Q4 2013 to Q4 2014 on an operating EPS basis, and as Goldman Sachs notes, was only saved from a much more disastrous fate by Apple. However, don't worry about the mother's milk of markets... From now on, everything looks awesome as the hockey-stick extrapolators project EPS growth to resume in its escape velocity gung-ho, higher interest rates are good way by year-end...
And while EPS expectations for 2015 are collapsing...
 
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Kan man lita på dagens jobb rapport. Glömde dom eller hoppade dom över uppsägningarna inom oljesektorn.

Publicerad 2015-02-06 16:44:39 i Ekonomi,

One of the convenient things about the sharp plunge in crude and its subsequent and acute impact on energy company staffing levels, is that due to its concentrated nature one can keep track of precisely how many layoffs corporations in the energy sector announced in January. And as Bloomberg helpfully tracks, there were at least (and surely many more that were not unaccounted for) 18,000 terminations by US companies in the high-paying energy sector (and thousands more by foreign companies who have laid of US workers which are not shown in this total).

The BLS report? Well, according to the January payrolls report, the number of Oil and Gas Extractionworkers declined to 199.5K in January from 201.4K in December, a virtually non-exstant drop of 1,900 workers (and even the not seasonally adjusted, raw data shows a tiny drop of just 3.1K workers).

Visually, the outlier is as follows:

 

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Fler kom i arbete i januari än förväntat samtidigt som lönerna steg betydligt mer än marknadens förväntningar. Ligger FED efter och måste höja tidigare än marknaden tror.

Publicerad 2015-02-06 14:55:44 i Ekonomi,

The average hourly earnings surged from last month's -0.2% by a whopping 0.5%, the highest monthly jump in average hourly earnings since November 2008. On an annual basis, the increase was a less impressive 2.2%:

It remains to be seen just how this is happening with mass layoffs in the oil patch, but what is now practically assured is that the Fed will have no choice but to hike as soon as June.

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Guldet går starkt mot dom svagare valutorna

Publicerad 2015-02-05 10:36:58 i Ekonomi,

Gold in Euros has effected a defined lift, retracing nearly half of the decline (see Figure 29, left) as the Euro has weakened. Similarly, Gold in Japanese yen (see Figure 29, right) never did break into a bear market below the support (horizontal line), and may be poised to continue up.
 
KWN Yamada I 2:4:2015
 
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Man kan undra hur detta kommer att sluta, blir det som 2000 och 2008.

Publicerad 2015-02-04 10:57:28 i Ekonomi,

Less than 50% of stocks are trading below their 200-day-moving-average and the correlation between the S&P 500 and its internals is remarkably negative. The last 4 times this 'setup' has occurred in the last 20 years, the broad equity market indices eventually gave up the divergence (including 2000's market top and 2007's market top). Simply put - the health of the market is fading fast...

 The Blue ovals show periods when less than 50% of stocks traded above their 200DMA and internals were anti-correlated (52-week rolling) with equity exuberance. In each case things did not end well...

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Vecko charten ger nu köpsignal för guldet

Publicerad 2015-02-03 10:37:47 i Ekonomi,

"Because of the recent strength in the price of gold, the MACD has finally turned to a buy signal in the weekly chart for first time since the bear market started back in 2011. See the long-term chart with MACD below:
KWN VI 2:2:2015
The enlarged chart below reveals the historic MACD cross into a major buy signal.
 
KWN V 2:2:2015
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Felix Zulauf om vad de vikande råvarupriserna kan ställa till med

Publicerad 2015-02-02 11:02:27 i Ekonomi,

“When worldwide traded goods prices decline in dollar terms to minus 5 – 6 percent, in the past that has always been a warning signal that something bad is going to happen soon and a crisis will break out.  We are currently at the level of minus 8 percent.  This is definitely a warning signal that something bad is going to happen.” 
King World News - Legendary Felix Zulauf - Massive Second Leg Of Gold Rally And Disaster For Global Stock Markets

Gold is not a commodity.  Gold is money.  Gold actually performed extremely well last year because it was the second strongest currency after the U.S. dollar.

And everybody who lives in a country where the central bank, with dumb policies, weakens and devalues the paper currency values by printing money like mad, is extremely well-protected by owning gold.  Gold is fulfilling its historic function.

 

 
 
 
 
 
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USAs tillväxt räcker inte för att hålla i gång världen

Publicerad 2015-02-02 10:00:01 i Ekonomi,

Following last quarter's upward revised 5.0% GDP, driven higher mostly as a result of even more mandatory Obamacare taxation, Q4 GDP had nowhere else to go but down, the only question was how much. Wall Street estimated 3.0%. Moments ago we got the first estimate for Q4 GDP [6]and it was a miss, printing at 2.6%, and nearly 50% below the Q3 annualized number. This also means that the final 2014 GDP is 2.4%, higher than the 2.2% in 2013 as well as the 2.3% in 2012.

 
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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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