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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Baltic Dry Index på rekordlåga nivåer vilket borde indikera en allt sämre ekonomisk utveckling

Publicerad 2015-01-29 11:47:46 i Ekonomi,

The Baltic Dry Index hits the ominous 666 level - the lowest print for this time of year on record. Of course, just like with oil - this is brushed off as over-supply (not under-demand) and we are sure someone will opine how positive this drastic deflation of shipping rates is for global business... but still - this is the lowest print since September 2012 (and practically the lowest since the recession).

Jim Willie från Golden JackAss siar om året 2015

Publicerad 2015-01-29 11:33:50 i Ekonomi,

Check the 7-year cycle for an amazing sequence that goes back to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, the 1980 Gold & Silver Hunt Brothers peak, the 1987 Black Monday, the 1994 Irrational Exuberance with ensuing Asian Meltdown, the 2001 Inside 9/11 Job, and the 2008 Lehman failure. The year 2015 will be known for the USDollar demise with full fireworks, set up with Ukraine and the European repeat of Waterloo.
 
The Swiss removed the 120 Euro peg to their Franc currency. For over three years their central bank had maintained a hoard of paper mache Euro currencies that accumulated perhaps as much as 800 billion Euros. It became unsustainable. They ran a long USDollar trade with short Gold, which finally will go into reverse. The Langley crew had billions in SWFrancs stuffed in shrink wrapped palettes. They profited handsomely. The Swiss seem to have opened the gates of hell for the Gold market, and might have been slammed with a Gold margin call as leased gold bullion dried up.
 
 

CONCLUSION

People had better prepare themselves for some conclusion events, certain to occur with fireworks. The USDollar is soon to go away, put to rest, killed off. Its rise signals its demise. The hidden dismantle of the Petro-Dollar mechanism has been eerie, mysterious, and full of intrigue. The Gold Standard will return, but through the trade window. The solution to the untreated Global Financial Crisis is the gold route. The Eurasian Trade Zone will be built upon the gold route, and see a revival of the Silk Road. It cannot be stopped, not even by war. The safe haven is not the USDollar, but rather Gold & Silver bars & coins, otherwise defined as money.

The crisis is better described as the Global Monetary War. Any nation wishing to establish trade or a monetary system centered upon gold is branded a rogue nation, subject to extreme propaganda. This is precisely why Russia is being vilified, since they want no more USDollar in trade or banking, and lead a global movement to discard the USD as global reserve currency. The solution is with precious metals as the core to banking, trade, and currency, even wealth preservation. The new 2015 year will be exciting. As the Jackass forecasted, 2014 did indeed end much differently from the way it began. The agents of change are working at hyper-speed now. The USDollar is doomed, and its captains are running for their lives. They are not worth bargaining with in magnanimous cut deals. Better to treat them like fire ants and bothersome fleas and diseased rodents and rabid dogs. The return of Gold to its primacy is long overdue.

James Turk jämför guld marknaden med 70-talets utveckling

Publicerad 2015-01-27 12:38:21 i Ekonomi,

KWN Turk I 1:26:2015
 

Is gold ready to launch higher, again repeating its experience from the 1970s? I believe it will repeat, and that the above chart provides an insightful roadmap into what we can expect for gold. It looks like the second leg of gold’s 21st century bull market began from the low price reached this past November.

The circumstances today are of course different from the 1970s. And as Mark Twain so cogently observed, history doesn’t repeat – it rhymes. But the driving force behind the rise in the gold price this century is exactly the same as the key factor that caused the gold price to rise in the 1970s — central bank money printing.

What central banks are doing is turning government debt into currency, which even a cursory reading of monetary history makes clear is a recipe for disaster and the primary reason the gold price will soar.

Guld går bra i Euros vilket gynnar bolag som Endomines

Publicerad 2015-01-27 12:09:00 i Ekonomi,

 

Here is the amount gold has risen in percentage terms in the top currencies thus far this year (through 1/23/2015):

1. Euro – up 18.8%
2. Canada $ –  up 16.6%
3. British £ – up 13.1%
4. Australia $ –  up 12.4%
5. U.S. $ – up  9.2%
6. Japan ¥ –  up 6.6%
7. Swiss Fr –  down  2.6%

Ryssland köper mer guld och viktar ned på obligations marknaden

Publicerad 2015-01-26 10:53:10 i Ekonomi,

Russia has been undeterred in their rapid accumulation of gold reserves, while dumping their U.S. dollar and U.S. debt holdings. For proof, the Russian Central Bank just released data showing that they purchased 600,000 ounces of gold in December. This is in line with previous months and well above the average monthly purchase over the past few years.

russian gold reserves

Efter helgens val i Grekland är det högst troligt att Grekiska Drachmer snart finns hos växlingskontoren

Publicerad 2015-01-26 10:50:14 i Ekonomi,

Greek-Debt-Mess

Mr Tsipras won on promises to demand debt forgiveness and renegotiate the terms of Greece’s 240 billion-euro ($270 billion) bailout.  In his victory address, he made the following points:

  • GREEK PEOPLE HAVE WRITTEN HISTORY
  • GREECE IS TURNING PAGE, LEAVING AUSTERITY BEHIND
  • BAILOUT AGREEMENTS HAVE ENDED FOR GREECE
  • TROIKA ERA IS OVER FOR GREECE
  • SYRIZA GOVT READY TO NEGOTIATE ON DEBT
  • OLIGARCHS, ELITES IN GREECE HAVE BEEN DEFEATED
  • SYRIZA VICTORY IS VICTORY FOR PEOPLES OF EUROPE

European leaders and bankers will not likely sleep well tonight.

greece troika fu exit euro

Kommer Ryssland bli utestängda från SWIFTs betalsystem kan det vara början på något mycket, mycket större

Publicerad 2015-01-26 10:37:29 i Ekonomi,

2015 Black Swans abounding – Safe Haven gold to benefit

The chief executive of Russia's second largest bank, speaking at the World Economic Conference in Davos, Switzerland, said, "If there is no SWIFT, there is no banking . . . relationship.  It means that the countries are on the verge of war, or they are definitely in a cold war.  The next day, the Russian and American ambassadors would have to leave the capitals."

If this seems like hyperbole, consider that one of the reasons Japan attacked Pearl Harbor was because the U.S., which was the world's largest oil producer at the time, had cut off oil sales to Japan.

 

Det är sedan den början på december mycket stora uttag med silver från ETF fonden SLV. Vad är det som händer???????

Publicerad 2015-01-23 11:52:50 i Ekonomi,

The big news in the precious metal market yesterday was the third counterintuitive withdrawal from the SLV ETF within the last week.  As I mentioned at the top of this column---6.75 million ounces were withdrawn yesterday---and that's on top of the 4.55 million ounces that were taken out on Wednesday and Thursday of last week.

And as I also mentioned, just under 32 million troy ounces has been withdrawn from SLV since December 1, 2014---and not a peep out of anyone except Ted Butler about this.  Why this story isn't big news on every precious metal website on Planet Earth is beyond my comprehension, as the gold pundits bisect and dissect every squiggle in GLD, the gold ETF---but pass on SLV.  What is it with these people???

Here's Nick's 1-year chart of the SLV ETF showing the counterintuitive withdrawals beginning on December 1, 2014.

Lägre valutakurs för Euron skulle ju bidra med bättre tillväxt. Hur länge till kommer dessa bank nissar inom Centralbankerna hålla på och ta pengar från fotfolket innan någon säger ifrån.

Publicerad 2015-01-23 11:25:31 i Ekonomi,

"Whatever it takes" appears to have 'worked' to crash the currency of the Eurozone... but - unlike the Keynesian 'exports-are-awesome' textbook plan of competitive currency devaluationists (just ask Japan) -economic growth expectations continue to collapse... Perhaps it's time to say "make it stop" before all central bank credibility is entirely destroyed...

 

Danskarna sänker räntan för andra gången på en vecka. Tidfråga innan Riksbanken fixar negativ ränta och vi får betala för att ha pengarna på banken.

Publicerad 2015-01-22 16:28:42 i Ekonomi,

From Bloomberg:

Governor Lars Rohde delivered his second rate cut in less than a week today, lowering the deposit rate by 15 basis points to minus 0.35 percent. The move follows a 15 basis-point cut on Monday and comes as the European Central Bank unveils an historic bond-purchase program.

The Danish central bank “also seems to have been intervening in the market prior to the ECB meeting,” Jes Asmussen, chief economist at Svenska Handelsbanken AB in Copenhagen, said by phone. “Whether there’ll be further pressure for the krone to appreciate after the rate cut remains to be seen.”

 

Effective from 23 January 2015, Danmarks Nationalbank's interest rate on certificates of deposit is reduced by 0.15 percentage point. The lending rate, discount rate and the current account rate are unchanged.

The interest rate reduction follows Danmarks Nationalbank's purchase of foreign exchange in the market.

Danmarks Nationalbank's interest rates are: 

Lending rate: 0.05 per cent 

Certificate of deposit rate: -0.35 per cent

Current account rate: 0.00 per cent

Discount rate: 0.00 per cent

So far things aren't working out so well...

 

Draghis Bazooka är nu levererad och den skall motverka deflationen och få igång tillväxten. Om man studerar utfallet av USAs QE3 så skall vi nog inte dra för stora växlar av dagens Bazooka.

Publicerad 2015-01-22 16:19:41 i Ekonomi,

Here are the highlights, which confirm that yesterday's widespread rumor was a market-testing trial balloon:

  • DRAGHI ANNOUNCES EXPANDED ASSET PURCHASES
  • DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL BUY EU60BLN/MONTH, not the €50BN "leaked" yesterday
  • DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL START AGENCY DEBT PURCHASES IN MARCH
  • DRAGHI SAYS ECB ASSET BUYING TO CONTINUE UNTIL SEPT. 2016: so 19 months at €60 billion = €1.1 trillion
  • DRAGHI SAYS PURCHASES WILL BE CONDUCTED BASED ON CAPITAL KEY
  • DRAGHI SAYS AGENCY DEBT WILL BE SUBJECT TO LOSS SHARING
  • DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL HOLD 8% OF ADDITIONAL ASSET PURCHASES
  • DRAGHI SAYS AGENCY DEBT WILL BE 12% OF ADDITIONAL PURCHASES
  • DRAGHI SAYS 20% OF PURCHASES TO BE SUBJECT TO RISK SHARING
  • DRAGHI SAYS ECB REMOVES 10BP SPREAD ON TLTRO FOR FUTURE

Draghi levererar den stora Bazuka

Publicerad 2015-01-22 16:16:09 i Ekonomi,

Here are the highlights, which confirm that yesterday's widespread rumor was a market-testing trial balloon:

  • DRAGHI ANNOUNCES EXPANDED ASSET PURCHASES
  • DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL BUY EU60BLN/MONTH, not the €50BN "leaked" yesterday
  • DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL START AGENCY DEBT PURCHASES IN MARCH
  • DRAGHI SAYS ECB ASSET BUYING TO CONTINUE UNTIL SEPT. 2016: so 19 months at €60 billion = €1.1 trillion
  • DRAGHI SAYS PURCHASES WILL BE CONDUCTED BASED ON CAPITAL KEY
  • DRAGHI SAYS AGENCY DEBT WILL BE SUBJECT TO LOSS SHARING
  • DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL HOLD 8% OF ADDITIONAL ASSET PURCHASES
  • DRAGHI SAYS AGENCY DEBT WILL BE 12% OF ADDITIONAL PURCHASES
  • DRAGHI SAYS 20% OF PURCHASES TO BE SUBJECT TO RISK SHARING
  • DRAGHI SAYS ECB REMOVES 10BP SPREAD ON TLTRO FOR FUTURE

Det lägre oljepriset börjar nu visa sig på den amerikanska arbetsmarknaden.

Publicerad 2015-01-22 11:33:50 i Ekonomi,

Job losses in the oil industry are threatening to become an avalanche.  The following are 12 signs that the economy is really starting to bleed oil patch jobs…

#1 It is being projected that the U.S. oil rig count will decline by 15 percent in the first quarter of 2015 alone.  And when there are less rigs operating, less workers are needed so people get fired.

#2 Last week, 55 more oil rigs shut down.  That was the largest single week decline in the United States in24 years.

#3 Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes has announced that it plans to lay off 7,000 workers.

#4 Schlumberger, a big player in the energy industry, has announced plans to get rid of 9,000 workers.

#5 Suncor Energy is eliminating 1,000 workers from their oil projects up in Canada.

#6 Halliburton’s energy industry operations have slowed down dramatically, so they gave pink slips to 1,000 workers last month.

#7 Diamondback Energy just slashed their capital expenditure budget 40 percent to just $450 million.

#8 Elevation Resources plans to cut their capital expenditure budget from $227 million to $100 million.

#9 Concho Resources says that it plans to reduce the number of rigs that it is operating from 35 to 25.

#10 Tullow Oil has reduced their exploration budget from approximately a billion dollars to about 200 million dollars.

#11 Henry Resources President Danny Campbell has announced that his company is reducing activity “by up to 40 percent“.

#12 The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is projecting that 140,000 jobs related to the energy industry will be lost in the state of Texas alone during 2015.

This April 9, 2014, photo shows oil rigs in the Loco Hills field in Eddy County, near Artesia, New Mexico, one of the most active regions of the Permian Basin. (AP Photo/Jeri Clausing)

Yuanen kommer nu handlas i Schweiz. Kina jobbar stenhårt på att få sin valuta till en gångbar handelsvaluta runt om i världen.

Publicerad 2015-01-22 11:19:04 i Ekonomi,

The central banks of China and Switzerland have signed a pact to establish a yuan trading center in Zurich. The deal is expected to increase the number of European transactions in yuan.

Switzerland's central bank said on Wednesday it had signed the agreement with the People's Bank of China. The deal was concluded during the visit of Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang to the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Reuters / Arnd Wiegmann

Dollarn på väg upp vilket inte hjälper EM marknaderna som lånat stora belopp i valutan

Publicerad 2015-01-21 13:03:50 i Ekonomi,

The US Dollar Index has recently broken out of a huge trading range and climbed to a multi-year high! Usually, such breakouts are followed by explosive moves in the direction of the prevailing trend; so we should expect a big rally in the greenback. As you can see from Figure 1, at the turn of the millennium, the US Dollar Index topped out at 121.21 so at the current level (91.82), there is plenty of scope for additional gains.

Figure 1: US Dollar Index (weekly chart)

36436 a

 

Sju anledningar varför man skall köpa guld.

Publicerad 2015-01-21 11:59:06 i Ekonomi,

 

  1. Gold could increase in value as a method of payment because of currency issues.
  2. Central banks globally are doing everything to devalue their own currency. This will make that only one currency will benefit from this and that is the one that central banks cannot manipulate: gold.
  3. The Swiss National Bank threw in the towel on printing fresh cash. The bank realizes that it is a battle that cannot be won and all of this works in gold’s favor, of course.
  4. India has made import restrictions for gold more flexible a few months back. The expectation is that this will point to lower import prices.
  5. China remains a large consumer of gold and the trend where gold is moving from West to East continues.
  6. Russia understood that keeping more gold in its reserves will be key if it wants to stabilize its currency.
  7. The Federal Reserve has expressed its concern with regards to the impact of a stronger dollar and they will be the last central bank to enter the currency war. Gold is amidst a rally against all currencies and it is no longer a non-dollar play.      
 

Svenska guldbolagen står still när guldet och dollarn går upp????????????

Publicerad 2015-01-21 11:45:00 i Ekonomi,

Guldpriset har stigit med ca 100 dollar på kort tid och guldbolagen i USA och Kanada har stigit kraftigt. De svenska noterade guldbolagen har dock inte alls hängt med och som vi nämt tidigare så kan man köpa Botnoia Exploration med guld i backen till ett mycket fördelaktigt pris. Det har gjorts en större affär inom guldbolagen i början på detta år när Goldcorp köpte Proe Mines med ca 2 miljoner ounce och betalade ca $220 per oz i backen. 

Tidigare nämnt angående Botnia Exploration

Den senaste tiden har det klarnat runt företagets framtida planer och man har fått bekräftat att det finns guld med höga halter och att det även går att utvinnas på det mest enkla och miljövänliga sättet. Företaget har som målsättning att identifiera en mineraltillgång på ca 500 000 tr oz och har idag ca 250 000 tr oz klara. Med dagens börsvärde på ca 9,5 MUSD betalar du som aktieägare ca USD 38 per oz och kommer företaget upp i ca 500 000 tr oz kommer du in under 20 USD per oz.

Att köpa något för ca $38 som har ett marknadspris på ca $1300 och som man idag vet går att framställa på det enklaste, billigaste och mest miljövänliga sättet måste vara det smartaste sättet att köpa guld. Är någon beredd att betala ca $220/oz för samma vara i Kanada verkar det än mer korkat att det inte är fler som vill köpa till ca $38. 

Botnia Exploration handlas på Aktietorget och kursen pendlar runt ca 0,7 kronor. Då vi tycker att samtliga portföljer skall ha en andel guld så är det här det enklaste, billigaste och säkraste sättet att försäkra sin portfölj med guld tillgångar.

http://www.botniaexploration.com

 

KWN Russell I 1:21:2015

 

Är hela förväntade QE från ECB redan diskonterad i aktiekurserna

Publicerad 2015-01-20 15:34:14 i Ekonomi,

This strength in share prices but not in profits has meant the reported P/E multiple on Eurozone equities has risen from 11.5x to 18.7x today – a multiple expansion of over 60% in 30 months – and now stands at a premium to both the rest of Europe and RoW.

And there you have it: long before QE was mentioned, crystalized or - as is the case now - leaked on a daily basos, Europe has seen its stock market multiples expand by an unprecedented 60% to a level that surpasses even the lofty PE (non-GAAP) multiple of the US!

Which also happens to be the biggest problem for European stocks today.

Because with multiples already at 19x, how much more multiple expansion is left if European EPS stubbornly refuse to rise (as most anticipate will happen) and what really happens when Mario Draghi wakes up the market from the "QE Dream" in the words of Credit Suisse? Will the transition from QE myth to QE reality also result in the first QE nightmare?

Marc Faber om att marknaden tappar förtroendet för centralbankerna under 2015

Publicerad 2015-01-20 10:31:41 i Ekonomi,

Gold has absorbed its fair share of the commodities-market blows in recent years, but now is the time to move back into the precious metal, according to superbear Marc Faber.

“I’m positive [that] gold will go up substantially [in 2015] — say 30%,” Faber, whose investment letter is called the Gloom Boom Doom Report, said at Société Générale’s global strategy presentation in London on Tuesday.

“My belief is that the big surprise this year is that investor confidence in central banks collapses. And when that happens — I can’t short central banks, although I’d really like to, and the only way to short them is to go long gold, silver and platinum,” he said. “That’s the only way. That’s something I will do.”

“We simply have highly inflated asset markets. Real estate is high, stocks are high, bonds are high, art prices are high, and interest rates and short-term deposits are basically zero,” Faber said. “The only sector that I think is very inexpensive is precious metals, and in particularly precious-metals stocks.”

Faber, at times identified as “Dr. Doom,” singled out U.S. stocks as especially overvalued. Emerging markets, in contrast, could be on the cusp of another bull run, although investing in them in the early part of 2015 may be premature, he said.

CPI i USA lägre än väntat kommer FED nu att börja förbereda för mer stimulanser

Publicerad 2015-01-16 16:27:22 i Ekonomi,

This 0.4% drop (slightly worst than expected) is the biggest monthly drop since Dec 2008. The drop is led by a 9.4% collapse MoM in gasoline prices. Ex Food and Energy, CPI rose 1.6% YoY (less than expected 1.7% rise) missing for the 2nd month in a row. The question is - will the Fed see this as 'transitory' (ignoring the EIA's call for low oil prices for longer) or use it as another excuse to re-uncork QE?

The biggest drop in 6 years.

 

 

Börjar den svajande energimarknaden i USA visa sig när det gäller jobben

Publicerad 2015-01-15 15:43:29 i Ekonomi,

Initial Jobless claims surged to 316k (smashing expectations of 290k) and has not been higher since June 2014.  The BLS reports no unusual activity - so economists can't hust shrug this one off. Details on state-by-state job losses are lagged a week so we will not know if this is Shale Oil region-related but yesterday's Beige Book and day after day of announced job cuts by the energy sector suggest it is.

Tryckning av pengar hjälper inte Japan och kommer inte att hjälpa någon annan nation då man inte kan trycka nya pengar och därmed skapa ett högre välstånd.

Publicerad 2015-01-15 10:26:45 i Ekonomi,

So much for that short-lived hope-fest that Abenomics was not a total and utter disaster. Japan Machinery Orders (excluding -rather ironically- volatile orders) plunged 14.6% Year-over-Year in November (missing expectations of a 6.3% drop) for the biggest fall since Nov 2009. In this new farcical normal of course, this is just what the surging JPY of the last week needed and it is now dumping back towards 117.50 dragging Nikkei futures 150 points higher with it!!
 

Några indikationer om vart vi är på väg

Publicerad 2015-01-15 10:12:32 i Ekonomi,

The 6-month average of the volatility index has been a good indicator of when things in the market have started to go "wrong" to a degree more than just a buyable dip. When the 6-month moving average of the index has turned up, it has generally been a time to become much more cautious about "risk" exposure in portfolios.
SP500-VIX-011415
As shown below, the recent deviation between junk bond yields (inverted) and the S&P 500 has been a warning sign in the past that should be paid attention to.
 
Junk-Bond-Yields-SP500-011415
The recent deviation in margin debt from the S&P 500 was seen at both previous market peaks. Could it be different this time? Sure, but if it isn't there is plenty of "fuel for the fire" when it begins.
 
Margin-Debt-SP500-011415

Rekordmycket cash i aktiemarknaden

Publicerad 2015-01-07 12:26:51 i Ekonomi,

January 7 (King World News) - "Individual investors became significantly more positive in December, skewing their portfolio allocations toward stocks and away from cash to the greatest extent since the year 2000 (see chart below).
KWN SentimenTrader 1:7:2015
KWN SentimenTrader II 1:7:2015
As of the end of December, investors were holding 53.7% more of their portfolio in stocks than in cash, one of the highest amounts in 30 years.

USAs nationella skuld ökade med hela $98 miljarder den sista dagen 2014 och för december uppgick siffran till $136 miljarder.

Publicerad 2015-01-05 11:51:47 i Ekonomi,

As of the last day of 2014, total US debt soared by $98 billion in one day (driven again by Social Security debt surging on the last day of the month to a record $5.117 trillion), and closing off 2014 with a new all time high total of $18.141 trillion in Federal debt - an increase of $136 billion in the month of December and $790 billion for all of 2014.

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Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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