Det är den sista juni som man pressar ned guld o silverpriset men det andra halvåret är det statistiskt mycket bättre utveckling
JP Morgan har extremt stor exponering när det gäller derivat mot då framförallt silver. Notera ökningen från Q4-14 till Q1-15.
Traditionally, we look at the OCC's Quarterly Bank Report on derivatives activities  to see which was the largest bank in the US in terms of total notional derivative holdings. The reason being that like on frequent occasions in the past, we find some stunning results, such as most recently in January  when we wrote that, for the first time, Citigroup had eclipsed JPM as the largest US bank in total derivatives, with just over $70 trillion compared to perennial megabank JPM's $65.3 trillion as of the third quarter of 2014, explaining also why Citigroup had drafted the Swaps push out language in the Omnibus Bill .
ECBs fordringar på Grekland är större än det egna kapitalet. Vad händer om Grekland ställer in betalningarna kall ECB gå med håven hos Portugal, Spanien, Italien och övriga urfattiga EU länder. Man spelar ett högt spel inom ECB.
The euro crisis
- By Alasdair Macleod
- Posted 29 June 2015
Make no mistake; the Greek crisis is a euro crisis that threatens the solvency of the ECB itself, and therefore confidence in the currency.
Before going into why, a few comments on Greece will set the scene.
Last weekend it became clear that Greece is heading for both a default on its government debt and also a failure of its banking system. With the benefit of hindsight it appears that the Greek government was unwilling to pretend that it was solvent and extend its financial support as if it was. The other Eurozone finance ministers and the troika were not prepared to accept this reality.
There is no immediate benefit from debating why. What matters now are the economic and financial consequences, which are basically two: the Eurozone's banking system is very fragile and cannot absorb any sovereign default shocks easily, and the ECB itself now needs refinancing. Let's concentrate on the ECB first.
The losses the ECB face from Greece alone are about twice its equity capital and reserves. The emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) owed by Greece to the ECB totals some €89bn, and the TARGET2 balance owed by the Bank of Greece to the other Eurozone central banks is a further €100.3bn, which at the end of the day is the ECB's liability. The total from these two liabilities on their own is roughly twice the ECB's equity and reserves, which total only €98.5bn. Given the likely collapse of the Greek banking system and the government's default on its debt, we can assume any collateral held against these loans, as well as any Greek bonds held by the ECB outright are more or less worthless.
The ECB has two courses of action: either it continues to support Greece to avoid crystallising its own losses or it recapitalises itself with a call upon its shareholders. The former appears to have been ruled out by last weekend's events. For the latter a rights issue looks challenging to say the least, because not all the EU national central banks are in a position to contribute. Instead it is likely that some sort of qualifying perpetual bond will be issued for which there should be ready subscribers.
How this is handled is crucial, because there is considerable danger to the ECB from the instability of the whole Eurozone banking system, which is highly geared and extremely vulnerable to any reassessment of sovereign credit risk. If you believe that the Greek crisis has no implications for Italy, Spain, Portugal and even France, you will rest easy. This surely is how the ECB would like to represent the situation. If on the other hand you suspect that the collapse of the Greek banking system, plus their sovereign default, together with a knock-on effect in derivative markets, have important implications for euro-denominated bond markets, you will probably run for the hills. The latter being the case, highly geared Eurozone banks are likely to face difficulties, and they will affect the ECB's own holdings of all bonds, both owned outright and held as collateral against loans to rickety banks.
In short, the ECB's balance sheet, which is heavily dependent on Eurozone bond prices not collapsing, is itself extremely vulnerable to the knock-on effects from Greece. As the situation at the ECB becomes clear to financial markets, the euro's legitimacy as a currency may be questioned, given it is no more than an artificial construct in circulation for only thirteen years.
In conclusion, the upsetting of the Greek applecart risks destabilising the euro itself, and a sub-par rate to the US dollar beckons.
End note on gold
This week should see the dollar strong against the euro and the euro price of gold can be expected to rise. The extent to which these happen may depend on whether or not central banks intervene. For what it's worth last time this happened (over Cyprus February 2013) Europeans were reported to be requesting physical delivery against their unallocated gold accounts. The following April a co-ordinated bear raid of unprecedented size pushed the gold price down from $1580 to a low of $1183. The purpose of the raid was to disabuse investors of the safe-haven trade, in which it succeeded.
There is little such appetite for gold bullion today so a similar move is probably viewed by central banks as unnecessary; but if the gold price was to move significantly higher attempts to defuse the rise are less likely to succeed because there are very few sellers in western markets and the short positions on Comex in the Managed Money category start at record levels.
Det är inte lätt att vara grek just nu då man bara får ut Euro 60 per dag och pensionen får tas ut till hela Euro 240.
Good news - some Greek bank branches will re-open sooner than expected.
*GREEK OFFICIAL: 700 BANK BRANCHES TO OPEN THURSDAY FOR PENSIONS
Bad news - only pension withdrawals are allowed in limited size.
*GREEK PENSION WITHDRAWALS WILL BE LIMITED TO EU240: OFFICIAL
Det är inte bara Grekland som inte kan betala sina skulder. Puerto Ricos bond marknad kapsejsar denna stökiga dag.
Black Monday – October 28, 1929 – the stock market starts to destabilize and crashes thus beginning the Great Depression.
Black Monday – October 19, 1987 — stock markets around the world crashed, shedding a huge value in a very short time. The crash began in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped by 508 points to 1738.74 (1)
Black Friday – October 13, 1989
October 27, 1997 Mini Crash
September 11, 2001 – The economic effects arising from the September 11 attacks were initial shock causing global stock markets to drop sharply. The September 11 attacks themselves resulted in approximately $40 billion in insurance losses, making it one of the largest insured events ever. (2)
I strongly believe that 2015 will be a year that begins / creates financial crashes, economic chaos and possibly the start of the next great worldwide depression.
The CAPE ratio has recently been around 27, which is quite high by US historical standards. The only other times it has been that high or higher were in 1929, 2000, and 2007—all moments before market crashes.
Investors have poured into the market, opening 33 million new brokerage accounts between the start of January and the end of May. According to Macquarie Research, Chinese margin debt has risen 123% year-to-date, reaching a new record of 2.3 trillion yuan ($370 billion) on June 18.
Margin debt in China has reached 8.5% of the value of China’s tradable shares (For comparison purpose, that ratio was only at 4.6% during the peak of the Taiwan Stock Market Bubble back in the late 80's).
Kostnaderna för att producera guld stiger då det blir svårare att gräva fram med lägre och lägre guldhalter. Guldpriset måste upp om vi skall få några guld oz producerade i framtiden.
Cash flow analys för Grekland visar att kommer man överens om Euro 7,5 miljarder i helgen så är vi tillbaka på ruta ett redan i september. Man undrar vad pajasarna inom trojkan håller på med. Grekerna ge dom fingret och gå vidare i livet.
Det förberedes tydligen ett nöd paket på ca Euro 15,5 miljarder vilket inte skulle hjälpa Grekland någonting och frågan är om dom överhuvudtaget överväger att ta emot mer lån för att kunna betala tillbaka gamla lån
On the heels of Thursday's failed Eurogroup meeting and heading into what is again being presented as an all or nothing, "Lehman weekend" for Greece and its creditors, reports suggest the troika has offered Greece a third bailout program:
- GREEK CREDITORS OFFER EU15.5B OVER NEXT 5 MONTHS: HANDELSBLATT
- ECB, IMF, EU OFFER GREECE 3RD AID PROGRAM: HANDELSBLATT
- GREECE’S CREDITORS PROPOSE EU15.5B TIED TO AID DEAL: OFFICIAL
Here are the details, according to Bloomberg (citing an unnamed EU official):
EU creditor proposal foresees EU8.7b in EFSF funds: official
Creditor proposal foresees EU3.3b in SMP profits: EU official
Creditor proposal foresees EU3.5b in IMF funds: EU official
If true, this would mark a dramatic about-face for the IMF which had suggested it would not be interested in participating in a third Greek program. Similary, lawmakers in Berlin have voiced their opposition to a third bailout program for Athens as the German public has grown tired of throwing money at the Greek 'problem.'
As for the specifics as outlined above, note that if Greece receives €3.3 billion from SMP profits it will mean that the ECB has forfeited the money it made on the Greek bonds it purchased in the past, effectively allowing Athens to repay the central bank with its own money. As for the EFSF funds, it's long been suggested that bank recap funds could be chanelled to Athens under the 'right' circumstances and apparently imminent default is as good an excuse as any.
At least one analyst who spoke to Bloomberg doesn't see this as a viable long-term plan (of course there are no viable long-term plans for Greece, so one can-kicking exercise is probably just as good as any other) and also notes what we've been saying for months which is that after July, the focus will shift to elections in Spain and Portugal set to take place later this year:
Hedge funds and high-frequency traders have finally forced gold into a US dollar loss this year as shown in our introductory chart, but silver is still in positive territory.
This week gold declined $29 with a break from the $1200 level to $1171, and silver fell 40 cents to $15.70 early this morning in European trade.
As I wrote last week, in the run-up to the half-year precious metals' prices face a conflict between window-dressing for the lowest possible valuation, and the systemic risk that is Greece. The window-dressing motive is still there, but the pressures from Greece lessened on Monday when everyone thought a deal had been agreed, leading to a relief rally in equity markets and a corresponding fall in gold. As the week progressed it became clear that the proposed deal was not acceptable to the troika* of the IMF, ECB and the European Commission, but precious metals continued to drift lower.
Understandably, the troika observed that the Greek government's proposals were harmful to the economy and ultimately will make her debt less secure. The lack of resolution therefore increases Greece's systemic risk, making precious metals more attractive as a hedge.
But not for now it seems. Monday's false hopes of a Greek resolution allowed the bears on Comex to drive gold and silver prices lower, which suits both commercial traders and money managers. The position however has become extreme, with money managers' short positions the highest they have ever been. This is shown in the next chart, which is updated to 16th June (the dotted line is the long-term average for reference).
In the last ten days Open Interest has risen by an extra 21,000 contracts, which suggests that Managed Money shorts are even further into record territory, as much as 100,000 contracts. At the same time, Managed Money long positions are only a little below average, suggesting some hedge funds do have an eye on systemic risk.
The extreme short position is therefore controversial with a minority in the investment community. Monitoring sentiment generally, we find a growing influential minority of big investors expressing serious concerns over the failure of monetary policy and the distortion on market valuations. These sentiments appear to be reflected in speculative hedges in precious metals on Comex. The preponderance of sellers has given the big four commercial traders an opportunity to reduce their shorts to a level book, which is significant given their historical net short position has averaged over 90,000 contracts. Swaps, mainly representing bullion banks hedging risk elsewhere, have also reduced their exposure to historically low levels.
Market sentiment is therefore telling us the shorts are like lambs, which as they put on weight are getting closer to their appointment with destiny. The potential for a bear squeeze against money managers short of gold futures is greater than it has ever been. Market insiders, whose greatest risk is always from sharply rising prices, have squared their books telling us that they see this risk as well.
Meanwhile Open Interest in silver is not only at an all-time record, but continues to rise on falling prices, which is our last chart.
This is very unusual. Normally, Open Interest rises in phase with the price; instead it is rising on a falling price. In this case, Commercials including Swap Dealers have cut their net shorts by betting against new Managed Money short positions. The result is that outstanding bets in this market now exceed a billion ounces, not only a new record by far, but 115% of annual global mine production.
Det går åt fel håll för Stefan Ingves, högre räntor och starkare krona trots QE. Är Sverige beviset på att QE inte fungerar och vad skall Riksbanken nu koka ihop för soppa.
ECB har nu pumpat in mer pengar i Grekiska Bankerna än vad grekerna själva har satt in. Ser vi en Bail-In så är grekerna blåsta på alla pengarna. Detta kan ske redan nästa vecka.
Husköpen för första gångs köparna ökar åter i USA men ca 50% stoppar in mindre än 10% i eget kapital. Hur skall räntorna någonsin kunna gå upp utan att vi får en katastrof som vi aldrig varit med om förut.
Petrodollarns betydelse minskar hela tiden och nu är Ryssland största leverantör av olja till Kina vilket görs upp i lokala valutor. Vem skall köpa alla dollar som flyter omkring på världsmarknaden när Petrodollarns vikt i handeln minskar.
As a reminder, the petrodollar system works like this: oil export countries recycle the dollars they receive in exchange for their oil exports by purchasing more USD-denominated assets, boosting the financial strength of the reserve currency, leading to even higher asset prices and even more USD-denominated purchases, and so forth, in a virtuous (especially if one holds US-denominated assets and printed US currency) loop.
The flow of petrodollar reserves into financial markets peaked in 2006 and turned negative for the first time last year when Saudi Arabia famously Plaxico’d itself (and the US) by glutting the world with crude, in an attempt to crush Putin, and subsequently, to take out the US crude cost-curve.
Silver Eagle sales up until June 23rd are already 3.28 million oz (Moz), surpassing the total 2 Moz sold for May. Gold Eagle monthly sales are the second highest this year at 53,500, compared to 21,500 sold last month. The trend change looks even more clear when we look at sales of Gold and Silver Eagles since February:
Återköpen av aktier i USA går nu in i en period där det inte är tillåtet. Frågan många ställer sig vem skall hålla börsen under armarna.
From this week and for the next month the annual blackout period for buybacks of US stocks will hit demand for US equities just as institutional investors have dumped the most shares ever in history in anticipation.
Corporate buybacks have been the biggest source of demand for US equities over the past few weeks with a total of $730 million worth of shares bought in the past week alone.
Smart money exits
Meanwhile, the smart money has been leaving the stock markets with hedge funds net selling a record $500 million last week, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch whose research note commented: ‘Institutional clients’ net sales last week were the largest in our data history’.
Presumably the smart guys have looked at the buyback calendar and voted with their feet. Bank of America Merrill Lynch comments that only the late-in-the-game retail investors have carried on buying.
This looks like a market turning point driven by an end of the flow of corporate buyback money into US stock exchanges. Any bull market will also finally fall under its own weight in time when there are simply no more buyers let.
Via King World News:
Everybody knows what’s going on. The only reason the equity markets are moving up to the levels they are, are the record amounts of cheap money being pumped into the system.
So, when we look at why they’re [China] buying gold… what you’re looking at is virtually every day since the New Year began, volatility has been the name of the financial market game. So you see from Shanghai to New York, to stocks, bonds and oil prices, it’s swing time, man.
So the markets are moving on fake news that means nothing. The facts remain the same. There has been no recovery. It’s a cover-up.
It was a cover-up from the beginning when they came out with too-big-to-fails and TARP. They threw a tarp over the big lie to keep the Ponzi scheme going.
One of our keynote speakers was Nomi Prins, who wrote the book All the President’s Bankers… As it would have it, two days before our conference she was a keynote speaker at the Federal Reserve.
She spoke to members of the Federal Reserve, the IMF and the World Bank.
And I said to her, ‘Nomi what was the one thing you learned?’
She said, ‘I learned that they don’t know what they’re doing. They don’t have a clue. They’re in uncharted waters and they’re faking it.’
Den slutliga siffran för BNP Q1 i USA landade på -0,2% men notera den fortsatta negativa trenden mellan försäljning och lageruppbyggnad samma fenomen som innan förra finanskrisen
Housing starts föll tillbaka efter förra månadens stora uppgång, hoppet finns dock kvar oss optimisterna då Building Permits steg över förväntan. Summa summarum är att det inte är någon fart i fastighetsmarknaden heller.
Har den 30 åriga nedåtgående trenden för obligationsräntan vänt och vi har 30 år med stigande räntor
They invited her and she spoke to members of the Federal Reserve, the IMF and the World Bank. I asked her: ‘Nomi, what’s the one big thing that you learned?’ She said:
“I learned that they don’t know what they are doing. They don’t have a clue. They are in uncharted waters and they are faking it.”
Dow Jones Tranport brukar leda börsen nedåt vilket inte sker denna gång eller kommer det när det är sämre flöden och NYSE har brutit ur på ned sidan
Om det var någon som trodde att börsen handlar om ekonomisk utveckling när det egentligen bara är ett pyramidspel.
Den riktigt långa tekniska trenden för silver visar att det är ett mycket intressant köpläge på dessa nivåer.
S&P 500 aktier som printar lägre och lägre kurser ökar snabbt vilket innebär att det är färre aktier som håller index uppe.
Om två månader måste samtliga länder ha antagit dom nya reglerna för Bail-In hos insolventa banker. man har tydligen bråttom och bävar för kommande höst.
The European Commission on Thursday gave France, Italy and nine other EU countries two months to adopt new EU rules on propping up failed banks or face legal action.
The rules, known as the bank recovery and resolution directive (BRRD), seek to shield taxpayers from having to bail out troubled lenders, forcing creditors and shareholders to contribute to the rescue in a process known as “bail-in”.
The countries were Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Sweden, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, France and Italy.
France and Italy are two countries who are regarded as having particularly fragile banking systems.
Världens näst största bolag Exxon bryter just nu sin 28-åriga uppgångs trend. Vad säger det om marknaden???????
Räntorna i Europa går upp när Grekland är nära att kasta in handduken samtidigt som BIS pangar på guldet så det ska se ut som om allt är normalt.
The imminent default of Greece has been pushing up yields on not only Greek debt but that of Spain, Italy and France as well and even German bund yields have almost tripled in a week from their astonishing lows of, yes last week when the BIS attacked gold perhaps for the last time.
There is a tipping point in all markets and this seems to be it for bonds and by extension gold and silver. Why would investors hold their money in a declining asset when they have such a convenient safe haven alternative that has always done very well in bond crises in past history?
It is a no-brainer unless you just got your fingers burnt by BIS market manipulation last week. But make no mistake the BIS can’t keep on doing this when the market turns. After all it could not stop gold going from $250 to $1,923 an ounce between 2000 and 2011.
Pengarnas omsättningshastighet är nu lägre än 1929. För den uppmärksammade så framgår det att sedan räntan började gå ned ca 1981 har velocity minskat vilket visar att högre ränta och bättre löner är bättre för ekonomin.
BoE är inte orolig för en annalkande deflation är väl bara en tidsfråga innan vi får en ny QE runda för att få ned pundet.
Bilförsäljningen i USA ökar tack vare mer lån med längre löptider. Vi har sett hur det brukar sluta.
- Average loan term for new cars is now 67 months — a record.
- Average loan term for used cars is now 62 months — a record.
- Loans with terms from 74 to 84 months made up 30% of all new vehicle financing — a record.
- Loans with terms from 74 to 84 months made up 16% of all used vehicle financing — a record.
- The average amount financed for a new vehicle was $28,711 — a record.
- The average payment for new vehicles was $488 — a record.
- The percentage of all new vehicles financed accounted for by leases was 31.46% — a record.
Texas is going one step further with State Rep. Giovanni Capriglione asking the Legislature to create a Texas Bullion Depository, where Texas could store its gold. The goal is to create a secure facility that would allow the state to bring home more than $1 billion in gold bars that are owned by UTIMCO and are now housed at HSBC in New York.
Sounds like Texas - just like Austria, Germany, Russia, and China to name just four - no longer trusts the status quo.