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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Mera produkter på hyllorna vittnar om sämre efterfrågan och sämre utveckling för den amerikanska ekonomin

Publicerad 2015-03-31 16:54:08 i Ekonomi,

According to the Monthly Wholesales Report, inventories were up 6.2 percent in January from a year ago and 0.3 percent from December. Coupled with weak sales data (sales fell by 3.1 percent from December 2014 and 1 percent from January 2014), the inventory to sales ratio increased to 1.35 in January from 1.33 in December 2014. It means that it would take 1.35 months for businesses to clear shelves, the highest inventory-to-sales ratio since July 2009.

Why is data on business inventories so important? The answer is that the changes in the inventory to sales ratio indicate any supply or demand imbalances in the economy. Inventories rise when supply is greater than demand. Inventories rising relative to sales mean that sales fail to meet demand projections. Thus, the inventory to sales ratio usually reaches its cyclical peak in the middle of the recession, when the economy is slowing down. Indeed, please note three things.

First, that inventories of durable goods jumped the most – by 7.7 percent from year ago, which is generally in line with weak data on news orders for durable goods. Second, contrary to the historical declining trend (due to improved inventory management), we are witnessing a gradual rise since 2013 and particularly since the summer of 2014. Actually, the inventory to sales ratio has reached the highest level since the Great Recession (see the chart below). Third, inventories are rising despite low prices. Thus, this indicates week global demand.

1

Enligt The Telegraph håller nu banksystemet i Andorra på att fallera. Kommer vi se en Bail In samma som dom nu förbereder i Österrike.

Publicerad 2015-03-31 14:55:00 i Ekonomi,

Andorra, the tiny Catalan principality nestling in the foothills of the Pyrenees between France and Spain, tends to conjure up images of scenic ski resorts, medieval churches and duty-free shopping.

The country has for many years enjoyed the benefits of European borders without the restrictions of EU membership, allowing light-touch regulation that has brought in tourism and wealthy expats from its bordering countries.

However, in the last three weeks, the state has been gripped by a banking crisis that threatens to take it to the brink. Bankers have been thrown in jail, savers’ deposits have been restricted, and the country’s government is scrambling to convince powerful regulators thousands of miles away that the country is not a haven for tax evasion.

On Tuesday March 10, the US Treasury Department’s financial crime body, FinCEN, accused Banca Privada d’Andorra (BPA), the country’s fourth-largest bank, of money-laundering. The authority said “corrupt high–level managers and weak anti–money-laundering controls have made BPA an easy vehicle for third–party money-launderers”.

Three senior managers at the bank accepted bribes to help criminals in Russia, Venezuela and China, to funnel money through the Andorran system, according to FinCEN.

The next day, the state took charge of BPA, dismissing three directors. On the Friday, the bank’s chief executive, Joan Pau Miquel, was arrested and detained. Mr Miquel remains in a jail cell in La Comella, the country’s only prison, with a capacity of 145.

At BPA, the Andorran authorities have installed new management. After international banks cut off links, withdrawals were capped at €2,500 (£1,830) a week, a limit many people are maxing out.

Banco Madrid, the Spanish subsidiary of BPA acquired as part of an expansion spree in recent years, filed for administration on Wednesday.

The Andorran government insists that BPA is an isolated case, saying it is committed to transparency and that the rest of the sector is clean. For its sake, it had better be right, but many experts fear this is not the case.

The state’s banks have assets under management 17 times bigger than the economy, and the sector accounts for a fifth of GDP – almost all of the rest is from tourism.

Pas de la Casa, Andorra

Guldet och dess producenter är nu lika billigt som runt 2002

Publicerad 2015-03-30 13:46:55 i Ekonomi,

Examine the 25 year graph of the XAU.  The chart has been rising slowly but is currently deeply over-sold.
V-XAU
The S&P 500 Index (not shown) has rallied to new highs, looks toppy, and has been levitated by “money printing” and low interest rates.  Examine the graph of the ratio between the XAU and the S&P.  The ratio is currently at lows last seen in 2000 and is near all-time lows.  Gold and silver prices have been weak for four years and the XAU has been crushed further.  Expect gold, silver, their stocks, and their ratio to the S&P to rally in 2015 and 2016.
 
V-XAU_SP
Have gold stocks fallen in tandem with gold prices?  No!  Examine the chart of the XAU to Gold ratio.  It peaked in 1996 and has fallen since then.  Gold and silver stocks have been “out of favor” for nearly two decades.  The ratio hit a low in November of last year and is still exceptionally weak.  Expect a rally.
V-XAU_Gold
 

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2015-03-27 21:46:45 i Ekonomi,

Following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes last week, gold and silver have come alive, the gold price rising from a low of $1147 on 18th March to $1200 this morning and silver from $15.46 to $17.00, 4% and 10% increases respectively.

Gold Silver this month
 
The Commodity Futures trading Commission's (CFTC) Commitment of Traders Report released last Friday conveniently shows the positions of trading categories the night before the FOMC minutes were released. In gold, the Managed Money category sold down their positions to the lowest net long position since December 2013. This is shown in the chart below, with the dotted line representing the average net long position since 2006.
Managed money gold contracts
This represents a dramatic turnaround in positions, and it has permitted the Swaps (mostly bullion banks) category to reduce its net short position substantially, shown in the next chart.
 
Gold swaps
This confirms that the Managed Money category, consisting mostly of hedge funds, was badly wrong-footed ahead of the FOMC release, being very short indeed. In other words, there has been a significant bear squeeze subsequently which has driven the gold price sharply higher.

A simple bear squeeze should be accompanied by a decline in Open Interest, because a bear squeeze forces wrong-footed traders to close their loss-making positions. However, Open Interest has been increasing, which it turns out is entirely due to an increase in spreads1. Since Wednesday, Open Interest has declined sharply, which suggests that spread positions have been closed as the April contract runs off the board. This is shown in the next chart.
 
Gold Open Interest RHS

The presence of spreads, which are neither bullish nor bearish, negates the hope that the recent increase in Open Interest is due to genuine demand. Instead, we must conclude that dollar weakness after a period of significant strength has much to do with the rise. Oil prices have rallied strongly as well, having been oversold, confirming that markets so far appear to be only correcting the moves of the last eight weeks.

However, there are fundamental reasons for a more bullish stance for gold, not least the dawning realisation that the FOMC minutes from last week effectively put off interest rate increases indefinitely. Whatever else is a threat to the world's financial credibility, and you could make a very long list of those, the Fed's admission that for the foreseeable future there is no exit from continuing monetary inflation fully justifies a more positive trend for precious metal prices.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange delivered 53.47 tonnes into public hands last week, making a total of 561 tonnes so far this year, a slight increase on last year.

1 Spreads are matching long and short positions designed to profit from price differentials after financing between different maturities

Kinas ekonomi viker snabbt

Publicerad 2015-03-24 11:33:49 i Ekonomi,

Chinese rail freight collapses 9.1% YoY; China Manufacturing PMI tumbled back to a contractionary 49.2 - lowest in 11 months; and the Employment sub-index plunged to its lowest since Lehman ... yeah but apart from that, everything is awesome. And for those excited about just how disastrous Chinese data is (and thus how huge the next stimulus unleashing will be), think again - China now sees exactly where the last trillion dollar QE went... a de minimus and unsustained blip in the economy and liquidity-fueled rampage in stocks (which is not what a corruption-crackdown politburo wants to encourage).

 

Single Whammy: CHINA JAN.-FEB. RAILWAY CARGO VOLUME FALLS 9.1% Y/Y

 

Double Whammy: China Manufacturing PMI prints 49.2 - lowest in 11 months

Everything is un-awesome...

 

Triple Whammy: Employment collapses...

 

 

Vi är nu på nivåer där 1% av befolkningen i USA tar hem alldeles för mycket pengar.

Publicerad 2015-03-20 13:05:00 i Ekonomi,

Share of income

The middle class is being dismantled by economic forces.  More Americans find that they are working in the low wage economy that is booming.  For most households income does matter because this is how you finance your life.  The Fed has created a system where savers are punished.  Negative interest rates punish traditional savings.  It makes stocks, junk bonds, and other speculative items seem more lucrative.  Those that take on big levels of debt are encouraged.  So it is no surprise then that all items financed by debt are suddenly going up in price: housing (mortgages), college (student debt), and cars (auto debt).  Yet the larger gains are not trickling down to workers.

Take a look at this chart showing the share of income earned by the top 1 percent:

share of income top 1 percent

middle class us

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2015-03-20 12:57:50 i Ekonomi,

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released on Wednesday was notable for deferring interest rate rises to some unspecified time in the future.

Gold and Silver this month
This was realistic, given the continuing strength of the dollar, downward revisions to the inflation outlook, and economic weakness in virtually all industry surveys. The Fed's obvious problem in deferring a rise in interest rates is the continuing improvement in the unemployment statistics. However these are seriously flawed: for example in February housing starts fell sharply due to the bad weather, yet seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for residential construction jobs were said to rise by 17,200.

It appears the Fed is boxed in, and raising the Fed funds rate would probably only serve to increase excess reserves. If so, the Fed would have to shell out interest payments to the banks at a rate it really cannot afford, given its own balance sheet is geared over 70 times. Markets seem to be slow to understand this problem: if the Fed is unable to raise interest rates (i.e. the Fed funds rate) the dollar itself is at risk.

The immediate effect on precious metal prices was to turn them sharply higher, and Open Interest on Comex has continued to climb. Gold was up a net $16 on the week and silver $0.55. Oversold currencies bounced strongly, but gave back most of their gains yesterday. The set-up is now for a bear squeeze in gold and silver, with the Managed Money category on Comex somewhat short. The chart for gold and its Open Interest is shown below.
Gold Open Interest-price

Silver has continued to resist moves to the downside, and here the Open Interest has continued its climb as well. Silver has outperformed gold, illustrated in the chart at the head of this report.

 Silver Open Interest-Price

Normally falling prices are accompanied by lower Open Interest. The current divergence is therefore indicative of increased buying support, which may be enough to reverse the bear trend of the last three years.

It has been a momentous week, and rarely do so many important events occur. As well as the Fed showing they dare not or cannot raise interest rates, Greece's negotiations with the other Eurozone members are stranded on the rocks of reality. This was the week when markets suddenly realised the UK faces a general election with considerable political risk so sterling was sold heavily. The UK, Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg and Switzerland are queuing up with probably Australia and New Zealand to become members of the Chinese and Russian led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, compromising NATO and Pacific alliances. Unfortunately for American hegemony, the political line-up is following an economic interest, and this is a party to which America does not have an invitation.

If all that is not enough, the London gold fix changes this morning after ninety-six years from a committee to a platform run by the International Commodity Exchange. Participants (the approximate equivalent of market makers) announced so far are Barclays, HSBC, Scotiabank, Société Generale and UBS. It is interesting that the American and Chinese houses are holding back.

GoldMoney's customers sat on their hands ahead of the FOMC announcement, turning buyers after the event, according to our dealing desk.

Wholesale gold bullion deliveries from the Shanghai Gold Exchange amounted to 51.456 tonnes last week, totalling 507.71 tonnes since 1st January.

Hur länge till kan denna bubbla fortgå

Publicerad 2015-03-20 12:44:00 i Ekonomi,

biotech-bubble-ibb
“One of the things that concerns us here when looking at the biotech ETF, is that it’s about 35% above its 200-day moving average, which is kind of its long-term reference point. That is the widest spread in the 200-day in the history of the ETF going back to 2007. The last time it was at such a wide spread was about a year ago. If you remember, the March/April timeframe was pretty ugly for biotech.”

Den snabba dollaruppgången är svår att hejda

Publicerad 2015-03-20 12:26:52 i Ekonomi,

Volatiliteten på valutamarknaden är nu vildare än på någon annan marknad. Frågan är hur man skall få stopp på uppgången i dollarn som sedan förra sommaren stigit snabbare än någon annan gång under perioden med fiat valutor. Det beräknas att det finns ca 9 trilljoner dollar som är placerade runt om i världen och således har sålts mot andra valutor. När nu stora valutaförluster uppstår och dollar måste köpas tillbaka till högre kurser så är det svårt att få ned dollarn och minska det deflationistiska trycket som uppstår i USA och på råvarumarknaden. 
 

USA på väg in i en ny lågkonjunktur??????

Publicerad 2015-03-19 12:32:00 i Ekonomi,

Consumer consumption represents about 2/3rds of the U.S. economy.  No matter what you look at, actual consumption, inventories or new orders, they are all in decline.  The last two times all three series went negative in unison the U.S. was already well into recession. 

Stora utflöden från Grekiska banker, är vi nära en Grexit

Publicerad 2015-03-19 12:03:03 i Ekonomi,

 

 

Credit sector officials estimated that the flight of deposits yesterday alone amounted to 350-400 million euros, which was some five times higher than the daily average in previous days. They added that Wednesday’s withdrawals totaled the most since an agreement was reached at the February 20 Eurogroup meeting.

Hur skall det här gapet stängas, guldet upp eller FEDs balansräkning kommer att krympa. Det är bara o välja.

Publicerad 2015-03-18 13:02:27 i Ekonomi,

Fed Balance Sheet vs. Gold Price: This chart compares the monthly percentage growth of the Federal Reserve balance sheet (U.S. Treasuries and Agency MBS) against the price of gold back to 2004.

This chart compares the monthly percentage growth of the Federal Reserve balance sheet (U.S. Treasuries and Agency MBS) against the price of gold back to 2004.

Gold to Monetary Base Ratio: This chart shows the ratio of the gold price to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base back to 1918. The monetary base roughly matches the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet, which indicates the level of new money creation required to prevent debt deflation. Previous gold bull markets ended when this ratio crossed over the 4.8 level.

This chart shows the ratio of the gold price to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base back to 1918. The monetary base roughly matches the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet, which indicates the...

 
 

Kommer IMF ändra förutsättningarna för dollarn under hösten.

Publicerad 2015-03-17 16:12:00 i Ekonomi,

IMFs valuta SDR kommer förmodligen spela en större roll inom det monetära systemet. Idag består SDR av fyra valutor, USD andel 41,9%, Euro 37,4%, Pound 11,3% och Yen 9,4%. Vart femte år tar IMF upp vilka valutor som skall ingå och vilken andel de skall ha inom SDR. För att klara kraven skall valutan handlas fritt på världsmarknaden och vara en exportrelaterad valuta.
 IMF
Senaste mötet 2010 togs Kinas eventuella medverkan upp men Yuanen ansågs då inte vara tillräkligt handlad som fri valuta men uppfyllde kraven som export relaterad valuta.
Vid årets möte den 9-11 oktober kommer Kinas ansökan att behandlas än en gång och mycket tyder på att den här gången kommer det bli ett positivt besked. De finns också dom som tror att SDR kommer att utökas med ytterliggare två valutor, CHF Schweiz och CAD Kanada så att det totala antal valutor som ingår blir sju. 
Om nu Kina släpper peggen mot dollarn eller utökar banden som valutan får fluktuera inom är det ett tecken på att dom förbereder sig för SDR vilket med all sannolikhet innebär att man kommer att meddela hur mycket guld Public Bank of China har i sin ägo. Bör vara upp mot 5 000 ton guld för att vara ungefär lika mycket som USA och EU har i förhållande till BNP, ca "2%. Finns även de som tror att guldet kommer få en roll för att backa upp valutorna som skall ingå i SDR.
Oavsett så är detta mycket positivt för guldet och det kommer också innebära att det blir mindre intresse av att hålla dollar och därmed kommer dollarn att devalveras mot andra valutor samtidigt som guldet går upp. Detta är nog mycket efterlängtat från USA då den starkare dollarn gör det svårare för FED att uppnå 2% inflation. 
Lägre dollar innebär högre råvarupriser och framförallt högre guld och silverpris. Möjligen ser vi botten för råvaruindex under våren/sommaren.  
 

Här kommer mer macro som inte når upp till förväntningarna

Publicerad 2015-03-17 14:06:48 i Ekonomi,

 
Housing Starts for February collapsed 17% - this is the biggest MoM percentage drop since February 2011, and at -184K units down, this was the single biggest monthly decline in absolute terms since January 2007! At 897k SAAR, this is the first sub-900k print since September 2013 and biggest miss since Feb 2007. Multi-family starts are the lowest since June 2014. The collapse was dominated by the Northeast (-56.5%) and Midwest (-37%) so it must be the weather, right? Not so fast, The West region saw starts collapse 18.2%.

Vad händer med S&P när ekonomin går in i en recession

Publicerad 2015-03-16 12:14:00 i Ekonomi,

"The quasi-religious faith that central banks can push stock markets ever higher regardless of real-world realities may well be tested in 2015-2016. The global economy spiraling into recession (a.k.a. a period of slow growth--heh) raises two questions:

 1. Can the U.S. economy decouple from the global economy, i.e. keep expanding production, sales, income and payrolls while the rest of the global economy falters?

2. What happens to the U.S. stock market if/when the U.S. follows the rest of the world into recession?"

retail-sales3-15

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2015-03-13 12:03:51 i Ekonomi,

This week has been all about currencies, with a weak euro grabbing the headlines.

At one point yesterday morning, the euro was 3% down from last Friday's close, hitting a 12-year low against the US dollar. The yen was also weak, challenging its multi-year low point established last December. However, there are signs that gold and silver are being accumulated in the futures markets, and at GoldMoney we have seen a pick-up in demand for physical gold this week.

Gold fell heavily last Friday by over $35 after overnight prices failed to hold, reflecting a developing bout of dollar strength. Since then gold has drifted sideways to slightly lower by the close last night, a pattern followed by silver. This month, so far, gold is down 4.5% and silver 6.2%.

gold and silver this month

Since silver tends to move twice as much as gold up or down, this represents a good relative performance for the former.

Given the drubbing precious metals have received recently it is a surprise that Open Interest on Comex for both metals is increasing. The next chart is for gold, where this can be clearly seen.

Gold Open Int. Comex

The only Comex category which appears to be adding to its longs is "Other Reportables", which includes dealers that don't fit into the other defined categories. Otherwise, Money Managers are adding to their shorts and Producers and Merchants are reducing theirs, which is normal for gold in falling markets.

The rise in Open Interest in silver has been more dramatic, which is shown in our next chart.

 

Silver Open Int. Comex

Open Interest is heading back to new highs. Here again, it is the "Other Reported" category that is going long, together with the "Non-reported" category. It looks like undefinable parties are accumulating long positions.

So what is going on?
When Open Interest accompanies a rising price, it indicates healthy buying is present. Conversely, a falling price, which most of the time is through lack of bids, is usually accompanied by falling Open Interest. The relationship between Open Interest and the price is different at turning points, and it looks like that is what's happening.

Rising Open Interest on a falling price, which is the condition we have here, indicates increased buying support on falling prices, telling us that the price trend is likely to be on the turn. The bullish implication of this new demand is confirmed by silver showing resistance to further price falls relative to gold: silver should have fallen by about 9%.

In other news this morning, deliveries from the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose to 44.52 tonnes for the week ending 6th March. This is more than for the comparable week following New Year in 2014.

Jim Rickards om hur man fixar inflation genom att skriva upp värdet på guldet

Publicerad 2015-03-12 11:17:10 i Ekonomi,

‘The Fed could make the price stick by buying gold at $2,950 an ounce and selling it at $3,050, in effect becoming a market maker with a 3.3 per cent band around the target price.

‘If the Fed did this, all other prices including silver, oil, and other commodities would quickly adjust to the new price level causing 150 per cent general inflation — problem solved! Don’t think of this just as an ‘increase’ in the price of gold; it’s really a 60 per cent devaluation of the dollar measured in gold.’

Perhaps that sounds impossible and yet as Mr. Rickards notes: ‘Something similar happened twice in the past 80 years; in 1933-1934 and 1971-1980.’ Will it be different this time? Those were the past two major global financial crises. We are still living in the one that started in 2008.

Hur skall USA skapa tillväxt när 80% av befolkningen får sänkta reala löner.

Publicerad 2015-03-12 10:33:45 i Ekonomi,

As the BLS reports, not only is the annual wage growth of 80% of the work force not growing, but it is in fact collapsing to the lowest levels since the Lehman crisis!

The chart below shows what the implied annual change in supervisor hourly earnings has been since the start of the second Great Depression. Note the recent differences with the chart immediately above.

 

Kommer Grekland att lämna EU och ingå i BRICS

Publicerad 2015-03-11 11:43:50 i Ekonomi,

American economist Lyndon LaRouche issued a statement yesterday urging the Greek government to call the European Union's bluff, and not only exit the Eurozone, but also directly link up with the emerging new global financial and economic system being constructed by the BRICS nations.
 

Kommer FED höja räntan när ekonomin går åt fel håll

Publicerad 2015-03-11 10:42:07 i Ekonomi,

Recession Alarm: Wholesale Sales Plunge Alongside Factory Orders, Worst Since Lehman 
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/10/2015 10:13 -0400

For the first time since Lehman, Wholesale Trade Sales dropped for a 3rd month in a row in January. Plunging 3.1% MoM (against -0.5% expectations), this is the biggest drop since March 2009. Excluding auto sales, wholesale sales fell 3.5%. Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% (beating expectations) with only a very modest -0.1% drag from oil.

This has sent the inventory-to-sales ratio soaring as the "Field Of Dreams" economy is back – but as one wise trader noted, we are now 10bps higher in inventory/sales than when we entered the recession in Dec 2007.

clip_image003

But the punchline is the following chart showing the annual change of Wholesale Trade Sales. It does not need much explanation:

clip_image004

 

Valutakriget fortsätter och bidrar till hög volatilitet vilket kommer att leda till turbulens på andra marknader.

Publicerad 2015-03-10 11:33:38 i Ekonomi,

It is a trend of countries intentionally deflating their currencies that economists have dubbed a “currency war.”

Only after the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the days following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, have currencies been more volatile, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist David Woo.

That measure of volatility is based on a gross-domestic-product-weighted range-based index of currencies of the 20 largest economies in the world, which shows this current bout of currency swings as the third highest in 20 years as the included chart illustrates.

“Of course, these two previous episodes were both crisis periods. From this point of view, we can say that currency volatility is the highest for non-crisis periods in twenty years,” the Bank of America strategist said in a note to investors.

Woo cautions that the unintended consequence of this type of insidious currency war could lead to greater volatility which in turn could undermine healthy global trade and investment.

KWN Turk V 3:9:2015

Papperspengarnas slutfas

Publicerad 2015-03-10 10:33:25 i Ekonomi,

Vid en studie av 775 fiat valutor konstaterades att den genomsnittliga livslängden för en valuta var bara 27 år. Här är fördelningen vad som hände med papperspengarna.  

20% valutor misslyckades genom hyperinflation 21% förstördes genom krig 12% förstördes genom självständighet 24% var "monetärt reformerade" 23% är fortfarande i omlopp 

Dagens globala monetära system består av dessa fiat valutor och dom har varit i bruk sedan 1971. Vi har således hållit systemet igång betydligt längre än snittet på ca 27år. Med tanke på att vi har noll ränta och systemet hålls ihop med nytryckta pengar så börjar vi närma oss slutet. Om vi skall tro historien så är det mest troligt att systemet görs om genom krig, inflation eller ett reformerat monetärt system.

Vilket det än blir så är det mycket positivt för guld och silver som självklart skall ingå i alla investerings portföljer med minst 10%.

 

 

 

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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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