macrogoldsilver.blogg.se

Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Kommer det inom en snar framtid bli ett nytt monetärt system med en global handelsvaluta innehållande guld.

Publicerad 2016-04-27 16:45:07 i Ekonomi,

Kommer det nya monetära systemet innehålla guld med ett värde på över $4 000 per ounce.

Världen har idag ett monetärt system som består av FIAT valutor vilket har sedan 1971 gjort det möjligt med tillväxt genom nytryckta pengar och ökade skulder. Världens skulder är i dag dom största någonsin och utgör över 200 triljoner dollar mot världens BNP om ca 70 triljoner dollar. Vem som helst förstår att man inte kan öka skulderna snabbare än tillgångarna värde stiger i all oändlighet. Med räntor runt noll i större delen av världen och skulder som inte ökar är det dags med ett nytt monetärt system som är stabilare och har guld som ankare. Under de senaste 200 åren har de monetära systemen bytts ut ett antal gånger. Inget konstigt med det då systemet hamnar under för stor stress och därmed kapsejsar eller bytts ut mot ett nytt system. Medellängden har varit ca 40 år och dagens system har nu hållit ut i ca 45 år.

Vid en studie av 775 FIAT valutor konstaterades att den genomsnittliga livslängden för en valuta var bara 27 år. Här är fördelningen vad som hände med papperspengarna. 

• 20% valutor misslyckades genom hyperinflation

 • 21% förstördes genom krig 

• 12% förstördes genom självständighet 

• 24% var "monetärt reformerade" 

• 23% är fortfarande i omlopp 

Så för att övergå till ett nytt monetärt system så är följande förlopp mest troliga.

1) Man ändrar det monetära system genom förhandlingar mellan olika länder. Backar upp valutorna med guld och silver eller något annat som håller sitt värde.

2) Man trycker pengar till dom blir värdelösa genom hyperinflation.

3) Man startar ett krig som förändrar världsbilden och därmed ges möjlighet att införa nya monetära system.

För att reducera världens skulder till hanterbara nivåer brukar följande scenarion uppstå

1)     Skulderna försvinner med ökad tillväxt.

2)     Man skriver av skulderna.

3)     Man inflaterar bort skulderna.

4)     Skulderna försvinner vid stora krig.

Om vi nu skall hålla oss borta från krig och stryker tillväxten då den är omöjlig med höga skulder och noll ränta. Förslaget blir då avskrivning av skulder i kombination med högre inflation.

Det finns önskemål från ett flertal länder, framför allt Kina, om att det skall finnas en global handelsvaluta som man kan prissätta globala produkter i, såsom råvaror. Det finns i dag en valuta som råder under IMF och kallas SDR (special drawing rights). Denna består av dollar, yen, pund, euro och fr.o.m. den 1 oktober 2016 kommer kinas valuta renminbi (RMB) att ingå. Således finns det idag en färdig lösning för att ersätta petrodollarn som handelsvaluta.

Om vi nu går på det spåret så skulle ett följande skeende vara möjligt.

Världen går nu snabbt in i en deflation med kapsejsande råvarupriser och nu även sjunkande företags vinster, högre junk bonds räntor och lägre börskurser. Världsekonomin klarar inte deflation då skulderna är rekordhöga och tillväxten är helt beroende på ökade skulder. Centralbankerna (CB) är ju självklart fullt medvetna om detta och har efter triljoner nytryckta pengar börjat inse att det inte är lösningen. CB har mycket ansträngda balansräkningar och har därför inte mycket att sätta emot om det skulle bli en ekonomisk härdsmälta. Deras lösning ligger således i att göra samma sak som 1934 då deflationen var mycket utmanande för USAs ekonomi. Man beslutade att devalvera dollarn mot guldet genom att skriva upp guldets värde mot dollarn från $20,67 till $35 och därmed sjönk dollarns värde mot andra valutor inflationen tog fart samtidigt som börserna började stiga och de nominella lönerna ökade.

En sådan lösning idag skulle innebära att man skriver upp guldet till någonstans mellan 4 000-10 000 dollar per ounces och inkluderar den som ett ankare inom SDR som då skulle bestå av guld, dollar, yen, euro, pund och RMB.

Vad är det som tyder på att denna lösning är på gång och skulle passa även under dessa förhållanden.

RMB är fr.o.m. den 1/10 2016 inkluderat i SDR vilket är en förutsättning för att få igenom en global valuta. Kina har påbörjat en försvagning av RMB och detta leder till att deflationen i världen kommer att tillta.

Kommer det nya monetära systemet innehålla guld med ett värde på över $4 000 per ounce.

Världen har idag ett monetärt system som består av FIAT valutor vilket har sedan 1971 gjort det möjligt med tillväxt genom nytryckta pengar och ökade skulder. Världens skulder är i dag dom största någonsin och utgör över 200 triljoner dollar mot världens BNP om ca 70 triljoner dollar. Vem som helst förstår att man inte kan öka skulderna snabbare än tillgångarna värde stiger i all oändlighet. Med räntor runt noll i större delen av världen och skulder som inte ökar är det dags med ett nytt monetärt system som är stabilare och har guld som ankare. Under de senaste 200 åren har de monetära systemen bytts ut ett antal gånger. Inget konstigt med det då systemet hamnar under för stor stress och därmed kapsejsar eller bytts ut mot ett nytt system. Medellängden har varit ca 40 år och dagens system har nu hållit ut i ca 45 år.

Vid en studie av 775 FIAT valutor konstaterades att den genomsnittliga livslängden för en valuta var bara 27 år. Här är fördelningen vad som hände med papperspengarna. 

• 20% valutor misslyckades genom hyperinflation

 • 21% förstördes genom krig 

• 12% förstördes genom självständighet 

• 24% var "monetärt reformerade" 

• 23% är fortfarande i omlopp 

Så för att övergå till ett nytt monetärt system så är följande förlopp mest troliga.

1) Man ändrar det monetära system genom förhandlingar mellan olika länder. Backar upp valutorna med guld och silver eller något annat som håller sitt värde.

2) Man trycker pengar till dom blir värdelösa genom hyperinflation.

3) Man startar ett krig som förändrar världsbilden och därmed ges möjlighet att införa nya monetära system.

För att reducera världens skulder till hanterbara nivåer brukar följande scenarion uppstå

1)     Skulderna försvinner med ökad tillväxt.

2)     Man skriver av skulderna.

3)     Man inflaterar bort skulderna.

4)     Skulderna försvinner vid stora krig.

Om vi nu skall hålla oss borta från krig och stryker tillväxten då den är omöjlig med höga skulder och noll ränta. Förslaget blir då avskrivning av skulder i kombination med högre inflation.

Det finns önskemål från ett flertal länder, framför allt Kina, om att det skall finnas en global handelsvaluta som man kan prissätta globala produkter i, såsom råvaror. Det finns i dag en valuta som råder under IMF och kallas SDR (special drawing rights). Denna består av dollar, yen, pund, euro och fr.o.m. den 1 oktober 2016 kommer kinas valuta renminbi (RMB) att ingå. Således finns det idag en färdig lösning för att ersätta petrodollarn som handelsvaluta.

Om vi nu går på det spåret så skulle ett följande skeende vara möjligt.

Världen går nu snabbt in i en deflation med kapsejsande råvarupriser och nu även sjunkande företags vinster, högre junk bonds räntor och lägre börskurser. Världsekonomin klarar inte deflation då skulderna är rekordhöga och tillväxten är helt beroende på ökade skulder. Centralbankerna (CB) är ju självklart fullt medvetna om detta och har efter triljoner nytryckta pengar börjat inse att det inte är lösningen. CB har mycket ansträngda balansräkningar och har därför inte mycket att sätta emot om det skulle bli en ekonomisk härdsmälta. Deras lösning ligger således i att göra samma sak som 1934 då deflationen var mycket utmanande för USAs ekonomi. Man beslutade att devalvera dollarn mot guldet genom att skriva upp guldets värde mot dollarn från $20,67 till $35 och därmed sjönk dollarns värde mot andra valutor inflationen tog fart samtidigt som börserna började stiga och de nominella lönerna ökade.

En sådan lösning idag skulle innebära att man skriver upp guldet till någonstans mellan 4 000-10 000 dollar per ounces och inkluderar den som ett ankare inom SDR som då skulle bestå av guld, dollar, yen, euro, pund och RMB.

Vad är det som tyder på att denna lösning är på gång och skulle passa även under dessa förhållanden.

RMB är fr.o.m. den 1/10 2016 inkluderat i SDR vilket är en förutsättning för att få igenom en global valuta. Kina har påbörjat en försvagning av RMB och detta leder till att deflationen i världen kommer att tillta.

 

“Exter is known for creating Exter’s Pyramid (also known as Exter’s Golden Pyramid and Exter’s Inverted Pyramid) forExtervisualizing the organization of asset classes in terms of risk and size. In Exter’s scheme, gold forms the small base of most reliable value, and asset classes on progressively higher levels are more risky. The larger size of asset classes at higher levels is representative of the higher total worldwide notional value of those assets. While Exter’s original pyramid placed Third World debt at the top, today derivatives hold this dubious honor.”

 

BofAML smart money fortsätter att sälja aktier i stor skala. Vem köper?

Publicerad 2016-04-27 16:27:34 i Ekonomi,

One week ago we were surprised to learn that no matter what the market was doing, whether it was going up, down or sideways, Bank of America's "smart money" (institutional, private and hedge funds) clients, simply refused to buy anything, and in fact had continued to sell stocks for a near-record 12 consecutive weeks.  In fact, the selling continued despite what we said, namely that "at this point it was about time for the selling to stock, if purely statistically, otherwise said "smart money" would be sending the clearest signal yet that the market rally from the February lows is nothing but a huge gift to sell into."

One week later we were absolutely convinced that finally the selling would end. It has not.

 client net buys bofa 0

Någon håller VIX index nere genom att ge ut massor av nya aktier i ETF fonden VXX som följer VIX. Kan denna någon möjligen vara någon som börjar på F o slutar D

Publicerad 2016-04-27 16:20:30 i Ekonomi,

In one of his tweets yesterday, Tom McClellan, creator of the famous McClellan Oscillator and Summation index used by thousands of traders everywhere as a market timing tool, pointed out something disturbing: the number of shares outstanding of the VXX, the VIX tracking ETN, has soared exponentialy in recent weeks.

Ingen tror på denna kraftiga uppgång för S&P 500

Publicerad 2016-04-27 16:02:21 i Ekonomi,

Traders gunned for 2,100 on the S&P 500 last week. They briefly touched that level, but there was no follow through for the obvious reason: no one with a brain believes this rally.

We’ve broken above the downward trendline established by a series of lower highs in 2015. However, there’s a decent space between here and the all-time highs that has yet to be filled. And with momentum waning, it’s quite possible this move was a false breakout.

In truth it’s difficult to find just who is buying stocks right now.

  1. Corporate buybacks are in a blackout period, so it’s not that.
  2. Corporate insiders are selling the farm.
  3. Individual investors are pulling money out of stock funds.
  4. And institutional investors have been net sellers of stocks for weeks now.

This leaves Central Banks.

What used to be conspiracy theory is now a fact: the futures exchanges permit Central Banks to buy stock futures to provide “liquidity.” It is not coincidence that this policy occurred around the time the markets began to feel increasingly manipulated with stocks ramping higher for absolutely no reason at various points during the day.

HUI Guld index har stigit 110% sedan januari

Publicerad 2016-04-26 11:46:00 i Ekonomi,


1-HUI
 

*HUI components.

 

Barrick Gold Corporation

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited

Alamos Gold, Inc.

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd.

Compan­a de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A.

Eldorado Gold Corporation

Goldcorp Inc.

Gold Fields Ltd.

Randgold Resources Limited

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited

KINROSS GOLD CORP.

Newmont Mining Corporation

New Gold, Inc.

Sibanye Gold Limited

Yamana Gold, Inc.

 

Mera negativa nyheter om den amerikanska ekonomin

Publicerad 2016-04-25 16:14:32 i Ekonomi,

The cracks are starting to show in the housing 'recovery'. With Starts and Permits already rolling over, New Home Sales printed a disappointing 511k (vs 520k expectations), dropping 1.5% MoM. This is the 3rd monthly decline in a row - the longest such streak since July 2011. While positive for affordability, the decline MoM and YoY in median home prices (-$9,400 and -$5,400 respectively) will do nothing for The Fed's wealth-creation mandate. The West saw New Home Sales plunge 23.6% MoM while The Midwest surged 18.5%.

Worst streak of MoM home sales weakness since July 2011...

 

Stor efterfrågan på guldmynt i USA

Publicerad 2016-04-25 16:10:28 i Ekonomi,

Gold-Eagle-Sales-April-2015-vs-2016

We can see in the chart above, the weekly sales in the second (33,000 oz) and third week (34,000 oz) of April surpassed the total for the month last year.  Furthermore, April’s sales so far of 87,500 oz are nearly two-and-a-half times the 38,000 oz sold last month.

Now, if we compare total Gold Eagle sales for 2016 versus the same period last year, we have the following result:

Gold-Eagle-Sales-JAN-APR-2015-vs-2016

Lyssna på Peter Schiff

Publicerad 2016-04-21 11:21:05 i Ekonomi,

The Dow closed above 18,000 on Monday for the first time since last July – but unfortunately that news isn’t as positive as it sounds. Stefan Molyneux and Peter Schiff discuss the massive cracks in the world economic system, corporations defaulting on their debt, Saudi Arabia threatening to pull $750 million in assets from the United States economy, the coming collapse in the health care industry, misleading employment statistics, the Panama Papers Scandal and the danger of economic collapse.

Lyssna på Steen Jakobsen från Saxo Bank

Publicerad 2016-04-21 10:32:14 i Ekonomi,

 
 

 
 
Central banks are losing their clout in the market, says Saxo Bank’s Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen ahead of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday April 21. 
 
Steen looks at the challenges and constraints central bankers and policymakers are facing and why ECB president Mario Draghi may have run out of the ammunition needed to boost growth in Europe.

Lyssna på SGTREPORT

Publicerad 2016-04-20 10:34:18 i Ekonomi,

Precious metals writer and researcher David Jensen joins me to discuss the move away from the PAPER-BASED LBMA to the PHYSICAL metals based SGE – the SGE gold fox goes into effect on APRIL 19th!.

And as fate would have it, in the hours leading up to our interview Deutsche Bank admitted to rigging both the Silver AND the Gold market, while agreeing to provide evidence of other banks engaging in the same CRIMINAL activity – so let the class-action lawsuits begin! Meanwhile, Obama and Yellen were holding secretive emergency meetings all week long. We are in the midst of a global sea change away from manipulated paper precious metals, and back toward PHYSICAL. What a story – join us as we cover the latest.

Read David’s articles at Safehaven.comhere.

Idag startade Kina sin handel med fysiskt guld i Yuan vilket fick guldet att starta upp ca 1% när Europa vaknade.

Publicerad 2016-04-19 10:26:56 i Ekonomi,

China will begin its competition with London & New York and attempt to create the equivalent of the London gold fix but in Chinese yuan on April 19th. Of course the gold bugs are misrepresenting this as some dollar killer. Top Chinese banks, alongside Standard Chartered and ANZ, will be among 18 members to join a new yuan-denominated gold benchmark that signals China’s biggest step towards making the yuan convertible.  Of course, in London the banks have been fined for manipulating the closings to elect stops playing against their own clients. By creating a yuan based gold fix, this is a back-door to floating the yuan itself. It will allow for arbitrage in currency so you can go long or short gold in dollars and the opposite in yuan and you have then created a yuan futures contract.
China Gold Fix.jpg - R

Nigeria lämnar nu dollarn som valuta vid oljeaffärer. När kommer Saudi att göra samma sak????

Publicerad 2016-04-19 10:16:47 i Ekonomi,

Nigeria is just the latest OPEC nation to officially move away from the dollar and begin transacting in currencies other than the global reserve.  Two months ago, Iran announced they were no longer selling their oil in dollars in the wake of the U.S. removing them from economic sanctions, and would be transacting oil sales using the Euro as their primary currency.

Photo by Andrea Danti/Hemera / Getty Images

With Russia and China taking a bigger lead in international trade, the days of the petro-dollar, and U.S. hegemony over the global financial systems are coming to a close.  And with China on the cusp of bringing online their new CIPS payment system, along with a new global gold pricing mechanism, the world's move away from the dollar could now be measured in just weeks or months rather than years.

Hur länge till kommer det finnas insättare i banksystemet när världen har negativ ränta

Publicerad 2016-04-19 09:47:46 i Ekonomi,

The bars show the total value of negative rate government bonds in various countries.

You can see that Japan has the most negative rate bonds. According to The Wall Street Journal, more than 70% of Japan’s government bonds have negative rates.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced negative rates in January in an effort to jumpstart the country’s economy. Japan’s economy hasn’t grown in two decades. Its government is desperate enough to try anything.

So far, the experiment is a huge flop.

As we recently explained, folks in Japan are not spending more money. They’re hoarding cash at home. That’s because negative rates “tax” money in your bank account, but they can’t tax cash sitting in a safe or under your mattress.

Lyssna på SGTREPORT

Publicerad 2016-04-18 12:00:44 i Ekonomi,

Precious metals writer and researcher David Jensen joins me to discuss the move away from the PAPER-BASED LBMA to the PHYSICAL metals based SGE – the SGE gold fox goes into effect on APRIL 19th!.

And as fate would have it, in the hours leading up to our interview Deutsche Bank admitted to rigging both the Silver AND the Gold market, while agreeing to provide evidence of other banks engaging in the same CRIMINAL activity – so let the class-action lawsuits begin! Meanwhile, Obama and Yellen were holding secretive emergency meetings all week long. We are in the midst of a global sea change away from manipulated paper precious metals, and back toward PHYSICAL. What a story – join us as we cover the latest.

Read David’s articles at Safehaven.comhere.

Lyssna på SGTREPORT

Publicerad 2016-04-17 17:37:11 i Ekonomi,

This is the most dire and most immediate threat we face short of nuclear cataclysm, period.” says Dane Wigington fromGeoengineering Watch.org. Dane and I last spoke one year ago and Dane says the biosphere collapse of planet earth has only gotten far, far worse. From the Great Barrier Reef to 165 degree temperatures in Iran and Iraq, the ability of earth to sustain life, is rapidly reaching the point of no return. If we don’t stop these malevolent Geoengineering and climate modification programs, we’re dead.


 

Alasdair Macleod från GoldMoney om guldet och silvret under veckan

Publicerad 2016-04-17 17:24:48 i Ekonomi,

Chart 1 15042016


The gold price rose strongly on Monday and Tuesday, before drifting lower on Wednesday and Thursday.

In early European trading this morning, gold opened slightly stronger at $1230, up $2. Silver was the star performer this week, rising strongly to correct this year’s underperformance, as shown in our headline chart, and it broadly held its ground while gold lost about $30 from this week’s highs.

Silver’s strength in recent days is an illustration of how the mixture of regulated futures, forwards, and over-the-counter instruments creates analytical difficulties. The only reliable trading figures we have are from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders Reports, issued after a delay of three days. Those indicate silver is very overbought, with hedge funds holding near-record net longs. Yet silver’s outperformance has the clear characteristics of a bear squeeze. What is hidden from us are the off-market deals in physical, OTC and forwards, which on the basis of silver’s performance this week, indicates an overall shortage exists despite being overbought on Comex.

A possible answer came yesterday, when it was announced that Deutsche Bank admitted to silver manipulation and agreed to implicate the other banks. Could it be that those in the know, or to-be-alleged fellow conspirators, decided to close their bears? It later transpired that Deutsche has also admitted rigging the gold market. That had no immediate effect on the gold price, but then gold is a far more liquid market.

Deutsche appears to be trying to put the past behind it. Gone are the days when it participated in both the gold and silver fixes, but the paper trails should still exist. The potential implications could be very serious indeed, and almost certainly will involve the London market and the LBMA.

There are signs of considerable stress building in the shadow banking system, which may be leading to synthetic positions in precious metals being wound down. Shadow banks are financial intermediaries which facilitate these paper transactions, and if they are forced to curtail their activities, the ability of traders to deal in markets is reduced in turn.

These traders tend to run a short book overall, so their ability to finance short positions is likely to be restricted. That being the case, trading in physical metal should begin to determine prices to a greater extent. Market liquidity in derivatives is bound to suffer.

The principal counterpart driving the gold price this week has been dollar weakness followed by dollar strength. While these fluctuations are always a feature of price progression, underlying demand for physical metal appears robust. Negative interest rates in the Eurozone must be having an effect, and if European demand continues to build it will be a new bullish factor.The stronger euro and yen certainly make gold attractive to Europeans and Japanese, as the next chart shows.


Chart 2 15042016

 Elsewhere, Chinese demand in the first quarter was 516 tonnes, running below the comparable period in 2014, which was 625 tonnes. The Indian jewellery industry was on strike from the beginning of March until this week, protesting against a proposed 1% government levy on non-silver jewellery. The relative decline in Asian gold demand, compared with last year, may be compensated for by other buyers, but Indian demand should pick up again now the jewellers are back at work.
 

Stora framgångar när det gäller manipulationen av silver priset

Publicerad 2016-04-14 15:47:00 i Ekonomi,

by TF, TFMetals Report

For the first time, we have a successful settlement of charges related to silver price manipulation. Also for the first time, the Bank involved is named with other Banks as co-conspirators! From Reuters: “Deutsche Bank AG has agreed to settle U.S. litigation over allegations it illegally conspired with Bank of Nova Scotia and HSBC Holdings Plc to fix silver prices at the expense of investors, a court filing on Wednesday showed.”

It is difficult to understate the potential significance of this settlement. Of course, we’ll have to see where this takes us and what impact, if any, this news will have on paper prices and the overall paper derivative pricing scheme. However, this is huge news! For the first time, a Bullion Bank has admitted to price manipulation and, just as significantly, it has named names. Specifically listed as co-conspirators with DeutscheBank are:

  • UBS
  • ScotiaBank
  • HSBC

The full link from Reuters is here: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutschebank-settlement-silver-idUSKCN0XA2RU

 

Hur nära en recession är vi i USA

Publicerad 2016-04-13 15:40:26 i Ekonomi,

After stumbling sideways around unch MoM for 3 months, US retail sales tumbled 0.3% in March (considerably worse than the 0.1% MoM gain expected) confirming BofA's credit card data as we warned. March's print is practically the weakest month since Feb 2015 and is unlikely to get much better given the dismally weak start to April, as we noted here. After 3 months of low-base bounce in YoY retail sales, March saw it collapse back to just 1.7% YoY - deep in recession territory.

March Retail Sales plunge...

Schaeuble på kollision med super Mario vilket han inte är ensam om.

Publicerad 2016-04-12 16:46:33 i Ekonomi,

  • SCHAEUBLE SAYS ECB CAUSING 'EXTRAORDINARY PROBLEMS': REUTERS
  • SCHAEUBLE: FISCAL, MONETARY POLICY LARGELY EXHAUSTED GLOBALLY
Following this weekend's snafu in which Spiegel said that Germany is considering suing the ECB if it launched QE, Mario Draghi reportedly made attempts to "mollify" Germany with promises that this won't happen (it will) and that it was willing to meet - literally - with the German finance minister to appease any concerns he may have. Moments ago, Reuters reports that the meeting appears to have gone... badly.

Lyssna på Max Keiser

Publicerad 2016-04-12 16:40:41 i Ekonomi,

We discuss mysterious, unexplained creatures – like offshore havens all around us, the very fabric of the British economy. In the second half, Max interviews John Kim of SmartknowledgeU.com about the latest in the gold market.

 


 

 
 

Är det här vad vi har framför oss för guldet

Publicerad 2016-04-09 11:48:49 i Ekonomi,

A move in Gold to $1400/oz would fall in line with history. In the chart below we compare the current rebound in Gold to its rebounds following major lows in 1976 and 2008. If Gold rallies to $1400/oz in the next few months then its recovery would be in line with those previous two recoveries.

 

Gold stocks breakout, gold to follow - Gold Recovery Analog - daily graph

Enligt senaste COT rapporten har Commercials dragit ned på sina kortningar för guldet

Publicerad 2016-04-09 11:20:17 i Ekonomi,


GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC.
CFTC Commitment of Traders  *Combined Futures and Options* 
April 8, 2016
Reportable Positions as of 04/05/2016 Non- Reportable Positions
Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short Long Short
277,700 64,352 163,889 192,185 422,597 633,774 650,839 51,817 34,752

Changes from last report - Change in Open Interest: -4,132
-405 362 1,829 -3,933 -6,351 -2,509 -4,160 -1,623 28

Percent of Open Interest for each category of traders
40.5 9.4 23.9 28.0 61.6 92.4 94.9 7.6 5.1

Number of traders in each category; Total Traders: 375
205 96 139 50 61 305 248    
(CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) Open Interest: 685,591
 

Enligt senaste COT rapporten har Commercials dragit ned på sina kortningar för silvret

Publicerad 2016-04-09 11:18:03 i Ekonomi,

Gold     Silver     Platinum

SILVER - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC.
CFTC Commitment of Traders  *Combined Futures and Options* 
April 8, 2016
Reportable Positions as of 04/05/2016 Non- Reportable Positions
Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short Long Short
78,300 26,865 38,585 57,280 116,911 174,166 182,361 24,590 16,395

Changes from last report - Change in Open Interest: 4,501
561 3,028 3,785 3,411 -5,041 7,757 1,772 -3,256 2,729

Percent of Open Interest for each category of traders
39.4 13.5 19.4 28.8 58.8 87.6 91.8 12.4 8.2

Number of traders in each category; Total Traders: 215
100 53 65 45 44 172 142    
(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 TROY OUNCES) Open Interest: 198,756
 
 
 

Efterfrågan på guld via ETF och andra guldfonder fullkomligen exploderade under Q1. Det verkar som fler och fler börjar förstå vad som händer inom det monetära systemet

Publicerad 2016-04-09 11:10:04 i Ekonomi,

According to the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends, the market suffered net outflows from Gold ETF’s & Similar Funds except for the small 25 metric ton (mt) build during Q1 2015.   Then in the first quarter of 2016, it surged to 363 mt.  Actually, it was the second highest quarterly build of Gold ETF’s & Funds in history.
Global-Gold-ETF-&-Similar-Fund-Demand

Mycket intressant läsning som ingen får missa

Publicerad 2016-04-08 14:48:01 i Ekonomi,

The Stansberry Digest

The 'Metropolitan Plan' for when the dollar collapses... What happens after 'NIRP' hits the dollar... How America will return to the gold standard... Not what I wish, but what I believe will happen...

A few days ago, I (Porter) walked out of a dinner meeting at the Metropolitan Club of New York. I can remember every sight and sound. It all plays back in my head like a high-definition movie. This is not an April Fools' Day joke, unfortunately. This is a true story, down to the last, incredible, detail.

It was 9:43 p.m. It was Tuesday night. It was about 45 degrees. I was with two of my closest friends and colleagues. There was no wind. Traffic was light. We took a left on Madison, heading north. We went to Club Macanudo on East 63rd Street for an after-dinner drink.

I was in shock. It felt like I was walking away from a car accident. My adrenaline was pumping. My mind was racing. I couldn't fully process what I had just learned... but I had never been so afraid - not like this.

At the last minute, I had been invited to have dinner with one of the most powerful men in the world. This man guards his reputation closely. For reasons that will become clear, he does not want to be named in this story. You would immediately recognize his name and you would certainly know his reputation.

His career has spanned the last 40 years and includes stints at the highest levels of the U.S. government. For the last dozen years, he has served as an advisor to the world's wealthiest men. He sits squarely at the nexus between government policy and the country's wealthiest and most influential people.

He invited me to dinner on the fifth floor of the Metropolitan Club. Few people outside of New York know about this club. But it's one of the ultimate bastions of wealth and privilege in our country. Built by J.P. Morgan himself, it sits on the southeast corner of Central Park on Fifth Avenue.

Among other notable events, investing legend Warren Buffett celebrated his 50th birthday there. The most powerful and wealthiest people in the country meet there for dinner. The real policies that run our country get debated and decided there.

 I was with two friends that night - our director of business development, Mark Arnold, and Erez Kalir, a well known and successful hedge-fund manager.

Before coming to Stansberry Research three years ago, Mark was a partner at one of the largest venture-capital law firms in the U.S. He has worked on hundreds of major funding deals. He received his undergraduate degree from Duke and he has both an MBA and a law degree.

A few years ago, Erez managed around $1 billion as part of the Tiger Management group - the hedge-fund family controlled by legendary investor Julian Robertson. Today, Erez runs a small, private investment-advisory business... whose name you might recognize. (It's called Stansberry Asset Management.*) This firm - which is separately owned and managed - licenses our name and uses our research to build portfolios for high-net-worth investors.

Erez is the smartest investor I have ever met. He went received his undergraduate degree from Stanford, was a Rhodes scholar, and graduated from Yale Law School, where he was on Law Review.

 You need to understand... the people I was meeting with that night were not conspiracy theorists. They are smart, experienced professionals who know the world (and the major players) of finance inside and out. They do not scare easily. They have seen panics, booms, and busts all around the world. And yet... what we learned at dinner sobered all of us and affected us in a way no other discussion in my career ever has.

 Our host - who, by the way, was scheduled to appear on national television at 10 p.m., immediately after our dinner - began the meeting by describing discussions among senior policymakers in the U.S. about the possibility that the U.S. will follow Europe and Japan into negative interest rates. You probably haven't noticed, but despite the big rebound we've seen in the stock market, sovereign interest rates (as measured by the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond) have continued to fall. In the first quarter of the year, the yield fell from 2.27% to 1.77%.

According to our host, among U.S. policymakers it was becoming a foregone conclusion that since Europe (one of our major trading partners) and Japan were both using negative interest rates to weaken their currencies and to avoid deflation, that it was only a matter of time before the U.S. would do the same.

The likelihood that the U.S. will implement a negative interest-rate policy (or "NIRP," for short) is worrisome. You might have heard about this new kind of monetary policy. It's like capitalism turned upside down. Instead of being paid to save capital, you're forced to pay just to keep the money you've already earned. Negative interest rates are nothing more than government theft. Its banks literally steal from you every day that you keep your money in dollars, yen, or euros.

 The dinner I attended wasn't about these kinds of NIRP policies, though. Our host was assuming that negative interest rates would certainly occur in the U.S. The problem he wanted to talk about that night wasn't whether NIRP would happen in America. He wanted to discuss what would happen next... and how the government could possibly put capitalism back together if all hell broke loose under NIRP.

 Here's the hypothesis: What if NIRP spread globally? What if they're implemented around the world in every major paper currency? Think of it like dominoes. Japan has done it. Europe has done it. Sweden, too.

And last night, China became the latest major domino to fall. The overnight Hong Kong interbank offer rate ("Hibor"), which determines the rate that banks in the city have to pay to borrow Chinese yuan from each other, fell to negative 3.725% annually. Who in his right mind would want to hold yuan if it costs nearly 4% a year just to keep his money in a bank?

 America is likely next. If all of the world's major reserve currencies begin paying negative interest rates, the Federal Reserve will have to follow. Otherwise, the dollar would soar and crash our economy. So if all the major banks in the world are charging negative interest rates... where will the trillions and trillions of dollars in overnight banking deposits flee to next?

 Imagine you're the head of $300 billion reinsurance giant Munich Re. You must hold huge cash reserves so you can pay claims, should they arise. Millions of people around the world depend (and have paid for) the guarantees you've made to protect their homes, businesses, properties, and entire cities.

And now, instead of earning interest on these reserves, your company must pay huge sums of money simply to keep your capital safe. What will the people who run firms like Munich Re... or JPMorgan Chase... or Japan's huge Sumitomo Mitsui Banking do with their capital? How can they keep it safe in an era of negative interest rates?

And what will individuals do? Where would you put your money if Bank of America and Wells Fargo began taxing your wealth and your savings every day, instead of paying you interest? How would you keep your money safe?

Let's see what people are actually doing when faced with this conundrum. Munich Re is responding to negative interest rates by hoarding cash (tens of millions)... and by holding almost 300,000 ounces of gold. Media reports claim the firm has been an active buyer in the gold market. As Bloomberg News says...

Institutional Investors including insurers, savings banks, and pension funds are debating whether it may be worth bearing the insurance and logistics costs of holding physical cash as overnight deposit rates fall deeper below zero and negative yields dent investment returns.

Think about what that means for a little while... and see if you don't find yourself more than a little worried. NIRP could trigger a massive, global "run on the bank" as everyone begins trying to hoard currency and gold to avoid the penalties being charged by the central banks for using paper money.

Trust me when I tell you... Policymakers in the U.S. are cognizant of this risk. This isn't a doomsday scenario... It's happening right now. These risks are exactly why gold has seen its biggest quarterly move higher in more than 30 years.

The run has started.

 Look who is suddenly buying gold... former vice chairman of the investment bank Goldman Sachs John Thornton is now running Barrick Gold, one of the world's largest gold producers. Goldman has already purchased three tons of physical gold for its house account.

Stanley Druckenmiller - one of the most successful investors of the last 30 years and former head of the Quantum Fund - holds about 30% of his personal portfolio in gold.

The same is true across the top echelon of Wall Street's best hedge-fund managers: John Paulson owns stakes in several gold-mining companies. David Einhorn is a huge gold bull, with more than $100 million invested in gold stocks. Paul Singer says it's the only real money. Ray Dalio - founder of Bridgewater, the largest hedge fund in the world - says, "If you don't own gold, you know neither history nor economics."

I could go on, but you get the point. Billionaires are suddenly hoarding gold and expounding on its role in history. Doesn't that make you wonder what's really going on behind the scenes? More and more senior people in finance are buying huge amounts of gold. Why? Because of what I learned at dinner just a few nights ago...

 After outlining the risks of NIRP and the inevitable run on paper currencies these policies will produce, our host at the Metropolitan Club asked us a simple question...

 

How will the world's central banks regain control of the monetary system when it all finally breaks down? What will get people to stop hoarding cash, to stop buying gold, to put their money back in the banks?

I couldn't believe my ears. Here was a former government official - at the very highest level - openly discussing a global bank run and how the Federal Reserve and other central banks would try to stop it. I have never in my career heard anyone in government discuss such a scenario. And our host wasn't merely pondering whether or not this could happen. He was formulating a plan to combat it. He was assuming it would happen... and soon.

He then explained there would only be one sure way to gain control of the system: To use gold. He noted that the U.S. Treasury owns more gold than anyone else in the entire world.

The details about the Treasury's gold hoard are important to the story. So for review, the U.S. Treasury owns 248 million ounces of gold. It's held, mostly in the form of gold bricks, at three locations: Fort Knox, West Point, and the U.S. Mint in Denver.

Also important... you should know that about two-thirds of this gold was essentially stolen from private U.S. citizens in 1933, when FDR outlawed the private ownership of gold. The right to own gold wasn't reinstated until 1974. All of the confiscated gold was melted down into bricks. Then, in 1937, it was put on a special nine-car U.S. Army train and shipped to Fort Knox. Since then, just about the only people who have been allowed to see the gold are auditors from KPMG. No one else is allowed inside.

Our dinner host explained what would happen to this gold if NIRP policies caused a global run on paper money. And that's when I got genuinely afraid...

The only way to re-establish credibility and regain control of the financial system in the event of a global run on paper currencies would be to re-establish the U.S. dollar's convertibility into gold. Our host described the means for accomplishing this goal. The Fed, he said, could offer to swap all of the Treasury bonds it holds (about $2.4 trillion) for all of the gold owned by the U.S. Treasury. When you do the math, you come with a new dollar-to-gold ratio of $9,677. Roughly $10,000 an ounce.

Our host went on to describe several important nuances to how such a system would work, which goes beyond the scope of today's Digest. I want to make sure you understand three key things I learned at this meeting...

 

*  

The first thing you must understand is the world's system of paper money is unraveling. The only way to prevent a collapse of the banking system under the weight of outrageous sovereign debts is negative interest rates... the very thing that will spark a run on the system itself. The inevitability of this outcome is already influencing the behavior of the world's largest banks, insurance companies, and the wealthiest investors. And they're all going to do one thing: Buy gold.

 

 

 

*  

The second thing you should know is that as this crisis unfolds, people in and around government who understand how to use our country's gold (most of which was stolen from citizens) will re-establish financial order. But so much money has been created out of thin air that the price of gold will have to soar (relative to the dollar) to stabilize the system after it collapses.

 

 

 

 

*  

The third thing you have to understand is that the government will almost surely do something to prevent you from buying gold when the panic comes. That's why our host (a former leading government official) is buying gold now. And that's why you must do so, too - immediately.

 

As you can tell... this dinner had a profound effect on me. I walked away in silence, as did my colleagues. I was simply in awe at the enormity of what I had heard.

I've spent the last several days struggling to wrap my mind around what this all means... for me, for my subscribers, for my family... and for our country. For me and my friends who were at dinner that night, nothing will ever be the same again. There will not be another night's rest without this idea in the back of our minds. There will never be another day in our lives that we forget what we were told... and what it means will happen.

At first, I wasn't sure if I could tell you anything about what was said, or who was there. But much to my surprise, I received permission from our host to publish a summary of what was discussed.

Then I had to decide if I dared to do so.

You see, this was a detailed plan to stop a run on the dollar. It's a plan that's being discussed in secret at the highest levels of finance and government. If this plan is adopted and formalized, it would be, without a doubt, the most highly classified, closely guarded financial secret in the world. I could be putting myself (and my company) in some jeopardy by sharing this information. But... that's what I felt I had to do.

And I want to do more.

First, I'm going to host a live webinar to discuss everything I heard that night and what it means for us as a country and as investors.

Second, I've sent my best resource analyst around the country to meet with leaders in the gold industry. I'm building my first-ever gold-research product. For the first time in my career, I'm going to put my own name on a well-diversified portfolio of gold investments.

In the past, I've recommended following Casey Research and John Doody's Gold Stock Analyst advisory. We've even published some gold research in the Stansberry Resource Report. But going forward, I'm going to be leading our efforts personally. And I'm hiring a large new team to produce the best work available on gold and the precious metals sector. As usual, when I decide to do something, I make sure it's great - far better than any other research you can get elsewhere.

Third, we're going to continue to follow the NIRP story every day for you in the Digest. Regardless of whether you attend our webinar about these risks or you subscribe to my new gold research, I'm going to make sure you stay completely up to date on the growing risks of a global run on the banks. It's the greatest risk we face to our wealth and to the stability of our country... And most people don't yet realize how serious these problems have already become.

You'll see detailed coverage of this story over the next several days, and we'll continue to report on these risks going forward. You won't be among the millions of investors who never saw this coming.

One last thing... Back in 2007 and 2008, when I began to report on the huge risks posed to our economy by the mortgage bubble, and when I warned about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac going broke and General Motors going bankrupt... and the likelihood of the investment banks going bust, most people thought that writing about these things meant that I was hoping they would happen. Soon, I was receiving death threats. Some were even sent to my home.

Please do not conflate the facts I report or the things I warn could happen with what I wish would occur. I do not hope for a global run on banks. I do not hope for the price of gold to soar to $10,000 an ounce. All of these things would be terrible for our country and for millions and millions of people around the world.

Believe me, I hope I'm completely wrong about all of these things. But for the first time in my career, I can clearly see that we're careening toward a massive collapse of the paper-money system. In my view, it's not a matter of "if." It's a matter of "when."

 

Porter Stansberry

Baltimore, Maryland

 

Alasdair Macleod från GoldMoney om guldet och silvret under veckan

Publicerad 2016-04-08 14:33:54 i Ekonomi,

Chart 108042016

The dollar gold price rose this week from Monday's low of $1215 to close last night (Thursday) at $1240, and silver rose from $14.90 to $15.20.

Silver's performance compared with gold reflects lower than normal silver volatility, a trend that has featured from the start of this year, which can be discerned in the underperformance shown in the headline chart above.

In early European trade this morning gold and silver opened moderately lower, reflecting a slightly firmer dollar.

There is much happening on the subject of money, and to an extent, even gold is a bystander in a developing monetary train wreck. In recent weeks we have seen sterling come under pressure on fears of Brexit, plus some appalling trade figures. If Brexit happens, it will be the end of the grand European project, and the euro could disintegrate, but markets are not yet reflecting this possibility.

The dollar has been losing ground against both the euro and the yen. In the last eight trading sessions, the yen has gained 5% against the dollar, breaking the important 110-yen level (a strong yen means a falling JPY rate). Both the yen and the euro feature negative interest rates, so these moves are counter-intuitive. Could it be that negative interest rates are leading to a contraction of bank credit, forcing currency shortages on the markets for these two currencies?

The bank credit numbers will be reported in due course, but even then they will not tell the whole story. Demand for currencies with negative interest rates is certain to emanate from the shadow banking system, due to the lack of available collateral. With the BoJ and the ECB buying everything in sight, it is the shadow banks that are being squeezed.

The simplest way to understand this arcane subject is as follows. The principal function of shadow banking is to finance the deferral of settlement on a full range of financial instruments and securities. If you remove the means to do this by contracting the quantity of collateral available, then you are going to force earlier settlements of financed positions than would otherwise occur. This means that liquidation cash is demanded by the shadow banks and their customers to replace the credit which is no longer available. And cash, where the credit has been very cheap to the point where it even pays you to borrow, is demanded in the currencies with the lowest interest rates, because that is where the collateral is being drained from the system.

Both the BoJ and the ECB are hoovering up nearly all available collateral. The suggestion that gold is side-lined while this bizarre situation unfolds is apt. We are in uncharted territory, and few people understand the potential consequences, so how can you evaluate the purchase of anything?

Back to common sense. The price of gold has risen less in yen and euros than in dollars or sterling. Once the shadow banks have found a new balance by contracting their credit sufficiently, doubtless the euro and the yen will begin to reflect some fundamentals. And gold is cheap in these currencies, as demonstrated in the next chart.

Chart 2 08042016

So far, from the beginning of this year gold in dollars is up 17% and in sterling 23%. But in euros it is up only 12% and in yen a meagre 5%. And if buyers in these currencies need further encouragement, the technical background, admittedly measured in dollars, shows the consolidation of recent weeks could be nearly over, because the rising 55-day moving average should begin to underwrite the gold price.

Bank Of Americas kunder fortsätter att netto sälja aktier

Publicerad 2016-04-06 14:23:08 i Ekonomi,


 

Last week, during which the S&P 500 was up 1.8%, BofAML clients were net sellers of US stocks for the tenth consecutive week, in the amount of $3.98bn. Net sales last week were the largest since September, and the fifth-largest in our data history (since 2008). Since early March, all three client groups (institutional clients, private clients and hedge funds) have been sellers of US stocks, led by institutional clients, suggesting that clients continue to doubt the sustainability of the rally amid the lack fundamental drivers (S&P 500 profits remain in a recession and revision trends remain weak). Small, mid and large caps alike saw net sales for the second week.

Obligationer som blir värdelösa fortsätter att öka vilket brukar vara första steget mot en recession

Publicerad 2016-04-06 14:02:23 i Ekonomi,

Defaults are only likely to increase over the rest of the year, predicts Diane Vazza, S&P's head of global fixed income research.

Vazza says the 12-month rate will rise to 3.9 percent by December in a base case scenario. And in what Vazza calls a "pessimistic," but plausible, chain of events, the default rate could rise to 5.2 percent. That would correspond to 70 U.S. defaults during 2016.

To be sure, default rates have looked far worse in the past. Speculative-grade defaults rose above 10 percent in the wake of the tech bubble, and speedily surged to 12 percent in the credit crisis.

Handelsbalansen högre än väntat och som följd nedjusteringar av BNP för Q1

Publicerad 2016-04-05 14:47:28 i Ekonomi,

As of this moment, the Atlanta Fed calculates Q1 GDP to be -0.7% (Bank of America has it at 0.6%). We expect this number to be promptly revised even lower following the latest disappointing trade data from the US, when moments ago the BEA reported that the US February deficit rose from $45.9BN to $47.1BN, missing the $46.2BN consensus estimate. This was the largest monthly deficit since August 2015's $50.5BN, and the number is likely only going to increase as the US is once again forced to start importing more oil with its own shale industry increasingly mothballed.

Tänk på detta inför dagens siffra. Siffrorna brukar jämnas ut över tid så möjligen är det dags för en mycket medioker siffra från BLS. Man skall dock inte glömma bort att det är valår.

Publicerad 2016-04-01 11:23:29 i Ekonomi,

US-ADP-BLS-comparison-2016-03
US-ADP-BLS-difference-2016-03

Now we’re in the last month of that “following quarter.” Just to revert to the historic mean, the BLS’s reports for the three months in Q1 would have to be about 190,000 jobs lower than ADP’s. ADP’s first quarter total is just under 600,000 jobs. So the BLS’s total, including Friday’s numbers, would have to be 410,000 new jobs. But in January and February, the BLS already reported a combined total of 413,000 new jobs.

So, if the difference between the two reverts back to historical averages in March all in one fell swoop, the BLS could release a disastrous report of zero new jobs.

Even if the numbers revert back more slowly to the historic alignment with ADP, it would still be a huge disappointment for “consensus economists,” and all heck would break loose — either a gut-wrenching swoon in stocks, or a blistering rally as Wall Street would start clamoring for more QE….

That statistical correction would simply align the BLS with the fundamentals facing businesses in the US, which are not “conducive to a hiring spree in Q1,” as Rangasamy points out. Business revenues and profits have slumped for more than a year, productivity is declining, and economic growth in Q1 is starting to look very ugly, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model plunging to 0.6% growth annualized, a hair from stagnation, and down from 2.4% earlier in March.

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Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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