The S&P 500 is on track for its fourth straight season of negative sales, according to FactSet data, the longest such negative streak since the four-quarter stretch from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009.
Per-share earnings are looking at a deeper decline of 6.3%, wider than the 6.2% reading on Tuesday, according to FactSet. That would be a third straight quarter that earnings decline.
The average cumulative depreciation versus the US dollar has been almost 35% from January 2014 to January 2016. For many emerging markets, where depreciations have been considerably greater, weakening exchange rates have aggravated current problems associated with rising foreign-currency debts.
Rob McEwen founded the largest gold company in the world by market cap – Goldcorp. Today, Rob is Chairman and CEO of McEwen Mining, a company in which he owns 25%. He has weathered many cycles in mining and created tremendous shareholder value during bear markets and bull markets. So what does he see in store today?
Dagens Durable Goods siffra skriker recession i USA. Då kör man upp börsen och trycker ned guldet så att allt skall se bra ut ändå för investeraren. Hur länge till kan börsen leva helt åtskild från den faktiska ekonomin.
FED trycker pengar och omsättningshastigheten för dollarn sjunker vilket tyder på att FED är ute o cyklar. För att få fart på ekonomin och en gnutta inflation så måste Velocity ta fart. Men eftersom FED ägs av banker så kommer pengatryckningen vara deras väg för att hålla systemet in takt så länge som möjligt.
Check Keiser Report websitefor more: http://www.maxkeiser.com/
In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss that there is no story that is not true and what is good among one group of people is often an abomination with others. They look at negative oil prices and energy sector job cuts in the days of high leverage and low investment. In @ 12:43 of the second half Max interviews author and former investment banker Nomi Prins of the Strategic Intelligence Newsletter about the global economic depression, as central banks attempt to taper a ponzi.
USAs ekonomiska uppgång sedan 2009. Finns det någon efter alla pengar som har skapats från ingenting.
The reading of minus 19 was the lowest since the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009. This means 19% more of New York’s manufacturing companies are reporting a slowdown than an increase in business.
The Barron's Roundtable veteran says economic conditions -- especially in China and emerging markets -- are worse than most people realize, and he is shorting, or betting against, U.S. stocks.
Marknaden bryr sig inte om att tillverkningsindustrin viker i USA utan lutar sig åt en växande service industri men glömmer att majoriteten av vinsterna för S&P 500 kommer från tillverkning
För ca 30 år sedan skrev The Economist att 2018 får vi en världsvaluta som bygger på ett samhälle utan kontanter. Vi är inte långt från 2018 och många valutor runt om i världen tappar i världen mycket snabbt. Notera guldpengen som hänger runt halsen vilket kan tydas som att guldet får en avgörande roll. Den som lever får se.
Dow / Guld handlas runt 14 och om vi skall till samma nivåer som 1980 skall guldet upp kraftigt eller Dow ned rejält.
Schweiz har en mega Hedge Fond i sin egen Central Bank. Kan det ekonomiska systemet bli mer riskfyllt än när Schweiz lender of last resort sitter tung i börs aktier
RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel.
The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the turbulent months before the Lehman crisis in 2008. “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note.
Andrew Roberts, the bank’s research chief for European economics and rates, said that global trade and loans are contracting, a nasty cocktail for corporate balance sheets and equity earnings. This is particularly ominous given that global debt ratios have reached record highs.
“China has set off a major correction and it is going to snowball. Equities and credit have become very dangerous, and we have hardly even begun to retrace the 'Goldlocks love-in' of the last two years,” he said.
Mr Roberts expects Wall Street and European stocks to fall by 10pc to 20pc, with even an deeper slide for the FTSE 100 given its high weighting of energy and commodities companies. “London is vulnerable to a negative shock. All these people who are ‘long’ oil and mining companies thinking that the dividends are safe are going to discover that they’re not at all safe,” he said.
Kan USA komma närmare en recession än vad man är idag och FED har fått för sig att man skall höja räntan fyra gånger under 2016.
Shanghai Gold Exchange levererar rekord mycket fysyiskt guld under 2015 samtidigt som priset för pappers guld när man kan sälja hur mycket pappersguld som helst. Senaste siffran var att det var ca 350 claims på varje oz som COMEX har för leverans.
Kinas valuta reserv krymper samtidigt som Yuanen försvagas och valutan försvinner snabbt från landet. Vid vilken USD/CNY kurs är de kinesiska myndigheterna nöjd och vad gör dom för att stoppa försvagningen. Höjer dom räntan eller vad hittar dom på.
The year started with a bang.
Gold rose 4.5% and silver 3.8% in the first four days' trading, while equity markets had a torrid time. The dollar was also strong against the other major currencies, and many investment gurus are now worried, ranging from Marc Faber to George Soros. Overnight, on Thursday/Friday, state intervention was reported to have steadied Chinese equity markets, and gold and silver prices fell back slightly on real or imagined profit-taking.
One could argue that markets are only normalising. After all, equities have been buoyed up by zero interest rates and the usual bullish tones from analysts who are always positive for the new year. Gold in particular become oversold to a record degree in the last days of 2015, as shown in the chart below, which shows the net position in the Money Manager category (mainly hedge funds) on Comex.
Hedge fund managers have never been this net short, to the tune of 27,021 contracts. Gross shorts, not offset by long positions, are over 103,000 contracts, giving scope for the granddaddy of all bear squeezes. In that sense, the increase in the gold price of $50 over the week is minor, holding out the prospect of more rises to come.
Silver has been less dramatic in its moves, presumably because the short position has appeared less pronounced. However, in a market that lacks physical stock, the price finally began to rise last night, up 2.6%, indicating a short squeeze may be developing. But compared with volatility elsewhere, these moves are small beer. Oil has been particularly volatile, with WTI falling over 16% from Monday's opening to early yesterday morning (Thursday) when it bottomed at $32.12. High-grade copper suffered a similar fate, falling 15% over the same time-frame.
As mentioned above, some respected and experienced investors have turned bearish over the prospects for global stock markets, and these negative signs are easy to see for anyone following financial markets. Investors are increasingly risk-averse, with bond yield spreads for low-quality corporate debt having widened. Substantial loan losses are commonly expected from energy and commodity related debt, and every indication that international trade is collapsing is evidenced by the Baltic Dry Index hitting record lows.
Meanwhile, China's citizens, in spite of financial turmoil, continue to accumulate gold. With just a few days to report, they have taken delivery of 2,555 tonnes in 2015 (v. 2,102 in 2014), roughly 80% of global mine production. The total addition to China's reserves in 2015, including an increase in June of 604 tonnes, totalled 708.2 tonnes. Russia added about 181 tonnes to official reserves. And according to the World Gold Council, in the first three quarters Indian demand was 752.7 tonnes, or 1,004 tonnes annualised. These sources of demand alone total 4,448 tonnes, nearly 40% more than estimated global mine supply.
These are not the only countries adding to physical gold, so it is hardly surprising that we enter 2016 with greater stock shortages in western vaults. Furthermore, the outlook should continue to be dominated by increased perceptions of investment risk generally, which suggests that precious metals should be a profitable safe haven in the coming weeks.
Världens skulder måste öka exponentiellt för att få någon form av tillväxt. När räntan är noll och säkerheten för mera lån inte fortsätter att stiga då är det bara CB som kan trycka pengar och därmed försöka hålla systemet vid liv.
Starka jobbsiffror för december i USA men lönerna hänger inte med och samtidigt högre räntor från Fed tillsammans med kraftigt fallande råvarupriser. Hur skall FED få 2% inflation är den stora frågan.
In this final special, ‘Winter, Why Not?’ episode of the Keiser Report, we conclude with our thoughts on the 2015 that was and the 2016 that is: from increasing productivity, declining wages and decreasing fuel efficiency, rising alternative energy superpower. In the second half, they talk to Charles Hugh Smith of OfTwoMinds.com about a ‘radically beneficial world’ in a post-jobs economy.
Ingen bra start på kinesiska börsåret. Frågan är om detta är början på något större eller kommer det tryckas pengar för att hejda verkligheten
Chinese stock trading was halted for the rest of the day after the CSI 300 Index plunged more than 7 percent.
Trading of shares and index futures was halted from about 1:34 p.m. local time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Stocks fell as manufacturing contracted for a fifth straight month and investors anticipated the end of a ban on share sales by major stakeholders.
Under the mechanism which only became effective Monday, a move of 5 percent in the CSI 300 triggers a 15-minute halt for stocks, options and index futures, while a move of 7 percent close the market for the rest of the day. The CSI 300 of companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell as much as 7.02 percent before trading was suspended.
Not a happy new year...
Dow futures are now down over 150 points from NYE close, Gold and Treasuries are bid,
In this final special, “Winter, Why Not?” episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert conclude with their thoughts on the 2015 that was and the 2016 that is: from increasing productivity, declining wages and decreasing fuel efficiency, rising alternative energy superpower. In the second half, they talk to Charles Hugh Smith of OfTwoMinds.com about a “radically beneficial world” in a post-jobs economy.
The Guerrilla Economist from Rogue Money.net helps us ring in 2016 as we discuss the timeline for collapse. If we give credence to the Rothschild owned Economist magazine, then 2018 marks the very end of the line for the US Dollar. But as V notes, the dominoes of the Dollar’s demise have already been in the process of falling. V warns, “What should alarm you folks is that we are hanging on by a thread.”