Enligt en nyligen genomförd undersökning så placerar 16% sina pengar i guld när det gäller den riktigt långa portföljen. Det är mycket intressant då det är knappt 1% av världens finansiella tillgångar som är placerade i Guld.
The more earnings fall while stocks move higher, the BIGGER the bubble gets.
Stock bubbles are formed when stocks detach from fundamentals. By the look of things, this hit in 2015. And is has gotten significantly worse since then.
At current levels, the S&P 500 needs to fall almost 40% to catch up with earnings.
Under veckan är det options lösen och stängning av future marknaden för guld och silver vilket brukar innebära en nedgång för metallerna. Är det intervallet $1275 till $1300 som är vändpunkten denna gång.
Centralbankerna likviderar marknaderna med nya pengar så pyramidspelet kan fortsätta. Frågan är hur länge till Pyramiden håller.
ECB trycker obegränsat med nya Euron samtidigt som förväntningarna för ekonomin blir allt sämre. När kommer CB inse att trycka pengar är inte lösningen till bättre tider snarare tvärtom.
Efter Brexit är nu allt bra med rekordpriser på börsen i USA. Vad säger eliten nu eftersom dom var ute med skrämselpropaganda om att ekonomin skulle kollapsa om det blev Brexit. Allt är riggat och korthuset hålls ihop med nytryckta pengar som till slut blir värdelösa.
Here Is The Most Important But Least Watched Gold Chart Of 2016!
Dow Theory Letters: “The relative strength of bonds vs gold is shifting in favor of gold (see powerful reverse head and shoulders chart below).
Gold Near Critical Breakout vs 30-Year U.S. Treasuries
King World News note: This will be an extremely important breakout for the gold market when it overcomes the sloping downtrend line and powers above the reverse head and shoulders formation vs 30-Year U.S. Treasuries. Some professionals will put on large spread trades when this breakout occurs. Meaning, they will short U.S. 30-Year Treasuries and go long the gold market. KWN will keep you up to date when this breakout takes place.
According to S&P, with half of 2016 in the history books, corporate bond defaults just hit the milestone "century" mark, or 100, last week, rising by 50% from the number of bankruptcies at this time last year and the highest level since the US emerged from recession in 2009. The number rose by four to 100 in the first full week of July, as defaults in the US oil and gas sector ratcheted higher, according to Diane Vazza of S&P Global Ratings, the FT reports.
As a result, the total amount of defaulted debt has risen to $154 billion.
But what is most troubling is that at the current run-rate, with half of 2016 still to come, the global debt default total is on pace to surpass 2009 for the all time corporate bankruptcy record.
Helikopter pengar först i Japan sen vidare runt världen. Man undrar hur Centralbankerna tänker då deras uppgift är att skydda värdet på pappers pengarna men gör precis tvärt om. Finns bra guld och silver som håller värdet.
Everyone is Bullish, perfect time to short with stops in place of course. Below is a simple chart of one way to look at market internals. Lets see what is going on under the hood.
The chart shows OEX or SPY with NYSE 3 month new highs using a line chart. The purple line going up is OEX or SPY. Basically what this is saying is the market is going higher on less participation not more.
The ovals are current recent market highs, 3 including today, showing clear divergence.
Notice the trend of NYSE 3 month new highs near the left side, leading up to 4/20/16, it showed bullish momentum. That seems to be breaking down thus far as prices have been in rally mode since "Brexit".
This does not give me a reason to buy this current rally high, I already closed my long position and made my profits.
Sentiment is off the scale as we are getting divergences on oscillators and market internals. This is the bread and butter right here, no fluff.
Saxo's Ole Hansen
JULY 13, 2016
Based on the current price action of the S&P 500 index and the volatility index it appears that a sharp decline in shares is likely to unfold in the coming weeks.
The important silver threshold line is the 50 (MA), or what is known as in technical terms, the 50 month moving average line. Because I used a 20 year monthly chart, the 50 (MA) line refers to the moving average in monthly terms. If the chart is shown in weeks, then its a weekly moving average… and if it is a daily chart, then it is a daily moving average.
Here is an updated 20 year silver chart which now shows a 50 (MA) of $20.35:
The Recovery Is Fake And The Massive Debt Cannot Be Sustained
David Morgan - After the ship has sunk, everyone knows how it might have been saved
THE BEGINNING OF THE END
If the deaths of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were quick and painless, the coming demise of Deutsche Bank has been long, drawn out, and painful.
In recent times, Deutsche Bank’s investment banking division has been among the largest in the world, comparable in size to Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup. However, unlike those other names, Deutsche Bank has been walking wounded since the Financial Crisis, and the German bank has never been able to fully recover.
It’s ironic, because in 2009, the company’s CEO Josef Ackermann boldly proclaimed that Deutsche Bank had plenty of capital, and that it was weathering the crisis better than its competitors.
It turned out, however, that the bank was actually hiding $12 billion in losses to avoid a government bailout. Meanwhile, much of the money the bank did make during this turbulent time in the markets stemmed from the manipulation of Libor rates. Those “wins” were short-lived, since the eventual fine to end the Libor probe would be a record-setting $2.5 billion.
The bank finally had to admit that it actually needed more capital.
In 2013, it raised €3 billion with a rights issue, claiming that no additional funds would be needed. Then in 2014 the bank head-scratchingly proceeded to raise €1.5 billion, and after that, another €8 billion.
A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS
In recent years, Deutsche Bank has desperately been trying to reinvent itself.
Having gone through multiple CEOs since the Financial Crisis, the latest attempt at reinvention involves a massive overhaul of operations and staff announced by co-CEO John Cryan in October 2015. The bank is now in the process of cutting 9,000 employees and ceasing operations in 10 countries. This is where our timeline of Deutsche Bank’s most recent woes begins – and the last six months, in particular, have been fast and furious.
Deutsche Bank started the year by announcing a record-setting loss in 2015 of €6.8 billion.
Cryan went on an immediate PR binge, proclaiming that the bank was “rock solid”. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble even went out of his way to say he had “no concerns” about Deutsche Bank.
Translation: things are in full-on crisis mode.
In the following weeks, here’s what happened:
- May 16, 2016: Berenberg Bank warns that DB’s woes may be “insurmountable”, noting that DB is more than 40x levered.
- June 2, 2016: Two ex-DB employees are charged in ongoing U.S. Libor probe for rigging interest rates. Meanwhile, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority says there are at least 29 DB employees involved in the scandal.
- June 23, 2016: Brexit decision hits DB hard. The bank is the largest European bank in London and receives 19% of its revenues from the UK.
- June 29, 2016: IMF issues statement that “DB appears to be the most important net contributor to systematic risks”.
- June 30, 2016: Federal Reserve announces that DB fails Fed stress test in US, due to “poor risk management and financial planning”.
Doesn’t sound “rock solid”, does it?
Now the real question: what happens to Deutsche Bank’s derivative book, which has a notional value of €52 trillion, if the bank is insolvent?
To be sure, Renzi has his own problems, chief among which is how to pass a banking bailout of his insolvent banks without implementing the dreaded bail in mechanism unveiled in 2016 as the only permitted European bank resolution mechanism. Alas, in his push to bail out rather than bail in Italian banks, Renzi has faced stiff resistance from the Germans, namely Angela Merkel and Wolfgang Schauble who have both strongly opined against this kind of backtracking. Just today, Wolfgang Schaeuble, speaking at a news conference in Berlin (just hours after Italy hinted once again at an imminent bailout of Monte Paschi), said his Italian counterpart Pier Carlo Padoan told him that Italy intends to stick to the banking-union rules. Perhaps not.
So it is not surprising that when faced with stiff resistance from the Germans, Renzi decided to call a spade a spade when, as Reuters reports, he said that the difficulties facing Italian banks over their bad loans are miniscule by comparison with the problems some European banks face over their derivatives.
One look at the chart above and it becomes clear just who he was referring to.
As Reuters adds, speaking at a joint news conference with Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, Renzi said other European banks had much bigger problems than their Italian counterparts.
"If this non-performing loan problem is worth one, the question of derivatives at other banks, at big banks, is worth one hundred. This is the ratio: one to one hundred,"Renzi said
Gold Is Back!
Gold is back! With the strongest quarterly performance in 30 years, the precious metal in Q1 2016 emerged from the bear market that had been in force since 2013. A decisive factor in this comeback is growing uncertainty over the recovery of the post-Lehman economy. After years of administering high doses of monetary painkillers, will the Fed succeed in discontinuing the practice? Or is the entire therapy about to be fundamentally challenged?
The following chart illustrates that there has been a divergence between money supply growth and the gold price trend since 2011. It shows the combined balance sheet totals of the Fed, ECB, SNB, PBoC and the Bank of Japan. When the supply of fiat currencies grows faster than the stock of bullion, the gold price should rise and vice versa. The chart indicates that either the gold price has corrected too much, or central bank balance sheets are set to stagnate or decline in the future. Anyone who studies economic history knows that barely any precedents for a sustained reduction of central bank balance sheets exist so far.
Combined balance sheet totals Fed+ECB+SNB+PBoC+BoJ in USD billion
The Tide Is Turning!
If one compares the performance of the gold price to that of the stock market, one can see that the relative weakness in gold which has persisted since the autumn of 2011 appears to be ending. We already pointed out last year that the momentum of this trend was weakening noticeably. Now it appears as though the downtrend has ended and a turnaround has begun.
Global Financial Stress Approaching Panic Levels
The degree of uncertainty among financial market participants also represents an important factor affecting the gold price. The Cleveland Financial Stress Index (CFSI) also points to rising financial market risks. The risk index which is calculated by the Federal Reserve in Cleveland measures the “state of health” of the US financial system and is supposed to predict systemic risks. Altogether 11 sub-indicators from the areas of credit, equities, currencies and interbank markets are combined into a single indicator, which in turn is divided into four levels. The levels indicate low, normal, moderate and significant periods of stress. Since early 2014 the index has re-entered an upward trend and has recently reached the highest level since 2011 (see chart below).
Federal Reserve Financial Stress Index Nearing “Significant Stress”
According to our statistical analysis, a sustainable rally in the gold price is improbable if the gold/silver ratio rises concurrently. A declining gold/silver ratio significantly increases the probability that gold has entered a bull market. We are paying particular attention to the ratio’s current position, as a change in trend has possibly occurred in recent weeks. A renewed downtrend in the ratio would signal a positive outlook for gold, and an increase in the momentum of price inflation as well (see chart below).
A comparison with past bull markets is interesting as well. In our previous studies we have compared the recent correction with the mid-cycle correction between 1974 and 1976. The similarities between the two periods are in particular pronounced disinflation, rising real interest rates and extremely high pessimism with respect to the future trend of the gold price. If one compares the price trends of the two time periods, it can be seen that the bear market since 2011 had roughly the same structure and depth as the 1974-1976 mid-cycle correction (they differ in terms of duration though).
Comparison of gold bull markets of the 1970s (black line) and 2000s (golden line)
Numerous technical and sentiment indicators are suggesting that the gold price has gone through a traditional cycle which culminated in a selling panic and a peak in pessimism last year. It appears as though a new bull market cycle has now begun. King World News will feature more pieces from Stoferle in the coming weeks, but for now it is extremely important that KWN readers around the world understand that we are in the very early stages of the bull markets in gold and silver and you must not lose your positions.
The real kicker for today however was the massive surge in reported GLD holdings. A whopping 28.8 tons of gold were reportedly added to GLD. I have not gone back to check my database but I suspect this might be very close to a record one day total or if not, a new record in itself. Gold holdings are now at 982.7 tons, the highest level since June 2013.
This is absolutely phenomenal demand.
In my view, this is all traceable to the collapse in interest rates. The yield curve is growing flatter and has broken into yet another new low.
THE “CHIMERICA” GLOBAL ENGINE IS STALLED – IT IS OUT OF ITS FUEL:"AN INCREASING & SUSTAINABLE CREDIT EXPANSION RATE"
Seven stealth Chinese Yuan devaluations in 60 days!
As Bloomberg reports, M&G suspends trading in property portfolio, feeder funds, according to statement on website.
"Investor redemptions in the fund have risen markedly because of the high levels of uncertainty in the U.K. commercial property market since the outcome of the European Union referendum.
Redemptions have now reached a point where M&G believes it can best protect the interests of the funds’ shareholders by seeking a temporary suspension in trading."
Räntemarknaden handlar p.g.a. oro ned långa obligationsräntor medan börsen gör tvärtom och handlar upp kurserna då Centralbanken än en gång skall rädda aktiemarknaden. Frågan är om det fungerar den här gången?????
Italien vill inte kännas vid dom nya Bail_In reglerna utan är rädda för en bank run om insättarna får reda på vad som gäller. Det kommer garanterat mer i detta ärende
Factory orders i USA fortsätter att visa sjunkande siffror vilket helt klart indikerar att den delen av ekonomin är i recession. Nu gäller det bara att marknaden skall inse att resten är i samma läge.
Schweizs 50 åriga obligation avkastar nu negativt samtidigt som ca $12 triljoner globalt avkastar negativ ränta. Vi sitter nu på den största räntebubblan av alla bubblor och det kommer bli en redig smäll när denna spricker
Cited by Bloomberg, Aviva said in an email that "market circumstances, which are impacting the wider industry, have resulted in a lack of immediate liquidity" adding that "we have acted to safeguard the interests of all our investors by suspending dealing in the fund with immediate effect.... Suspension of dealing will give Aviva Investors greater control in managing cash flows and conducting orderly asset sales in order to meet our obligations to investors.”
As Laith Khalaf, a senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown cited above, put it, “the dominoes are starting to fall in the U.K. commercial property market, as yet another fund locks its doors on the back of outflows precipitated by the Brexit vote. It’s probably only a matter of time before we see other funds follow suit."
We could not have said it better ourselves.
“Standard Life’s decision to close its fund to redemptions concerns us. There is clearly fear that prices tomorrow will be substantially lower than prices today,” said Robert Duncan, analyst at Numis Securities. “Clearly the pace of redemptions has taken the fund by surprise.”
The announcements by both Standard Life and Aviva quickly impacted other commercial property funds: Legal & General dropped 5.6 % by midday, Aberdeen Asset Management shares were down 6.1% and Standard Life lost 3.5%. Land Securities, the UK’s largest property company, dropped 4.3%.
Surging U.S. & Canadian Silver Bar & Coin Demand Cause A The Investment Deficit To Balloon Higher
If we add the revised Silver Bar demand published in the 2016 World Silver Survey, now including “Private silver bars & rounds”, this would be the result:
I only revised the data for 2014 and 2015 which includes Silver Bar demand. I could not revise the data for 2001-2013 as there isn’t enough detailed information in the World Silver Surveys to provide accurate figures. However, we can now see just how much more physical silver investment demand there is in the U.S. and Canada when we include Silver Bar demand.
UK's Largest Property Fund Halts Redemptions, Fears "Vicious Circle"
Standard Life Investments has suspended trading on its £2.7 billion U.K. Real Estate fund, effective immediately, following Brexit, Investment Week reported, citing a statement.
The firm has suspended trading on the SLI UK Real Estate PAIF and the SLI UK Real Estate income and accumulation feeder funds.
The company cites "exceptional market circumstances" following an increase in redemption requests from the referendum.
The drop in NAV is the largest since Lehman...
Italienska bankerna sitter i hissen och nu vill Matteo Renzi använda statliga pengar för att rädda bankerna vilket är helt emot om nya reglerna om Bail-In. Merkel har sagt ifrån men det biter inte på den italienska premiärministern. Cirkusen är igång.
In terms of the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio in fact it had only reached a valuation level like this three times in its prior history.
Those times were in 1929, 1999, and in 2007.
The simple fact of the matter is that the more highly valued a stock or market gets the more risky it becomes.
Shanghai settles 96% of gold trades in physical metal
Absorbs 90% of global gold mine production
Update: Silver just exploded above $21 - up almost 8% - its biggest single day surge since September 2013. Silver is limit up on SHFE as Gold is also surging back towards Brexit highs near $1360... China's CFETS Renminbi basket just hit a record low..