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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Klarar Italiens banker Brexit. Ansöker om Euro 40 miljarder för att hålla sig flytande. Möjligen behöver man 10 gånger mer pengar för att hålla pyramiden vid liv.

Publicerad 2016-06-29 13:56:12 i Ekonomi,

Italy is preparing a €40bn rescue of its financial system as bank shares collapse on the Milan bourse and the powerful after-shocks of Brexit shake European markets.

An Italian government task force is watching events hour by hour, pledging all steps necessary to ensure the stability of the banks. “Italy will do everything necessary to reassure people,” said premier Matteo Renzi.

“This is the moment of truth we have all been waiting for a long time. We just didn’t know it would be Brexit that set the elephant loose,” said a top Italian banker.

Italy

Vilka banker inom EU kommer överleva den kommande bankkrisen och hur många kommer att förlora pengar när Bail In reglerna sätts in

Publicerad 2016-06-28 10:45:45 i Ekonomi,

In the eurozone countries, the average Weiss Safety Rating of the institutions we cover is D+ (weak) — a red-light warning, especially in the wake of last week’s Brexit vote.

The chart below shows exactly how the grades are distributed among banks outside of the Americas:

 chart1

The eurozone has the most astounding concentration of large weak banks I’ve ever seen in all the 45 years since I founded my research and ratings company: 

Among the banks we cover in the region, 55.3% get a Weiss Safety Rating in the D range (D+, D or D-), while the balance (44.7%) get no better than Cs

This contrasts with Asia and the Asia-Pacific, where 46% of the institutions are in the B range and only 19% are Ds. And it contrasts even more sharply with the Middle East and Africa where 58.5% are Bs and there are no Ds. 

What’s most illuminating of all, however, is the contrasts inside Europe itself:

S&P 500 inför en större rörelse

Publicerad 2016-06-22 08:11:45 i Ekonomi,

We are now in a very small pause pattern that is going to end up leading to a big move and I think a move to the downside.

Look at this chart.

 

We have seen two big tops that led to big drops for the S&P 500 in the past few months. Right now the 20-day Bollinger Bands are coming very tight together.  This means daily price pattern volatility is shrinking.

That is important, because that often leads to a move that lasts for several weeks. When the Bollinger Bands get super tight they then end up expanding as volatility increases.

In August they got as close together as they had been in years and the August flash crash then hit.

In the next few days they are going to get so tight it is going to be a big tip that something big is about to happen.

 

FEDs förtroende eroderas för varje dag och det är nu rekordstort intresse från Hede fonder när det gäller guld.

Publicerad 2016-06-22 07:53:12 i Ekonomi,

As Fed credibility collapses (red line - inverted expectations of rate-hike-pace) so Gold (gold line) and global developed market bonds (green line) have soared tick for tick...

 

Having fallen to a net short position as The Fed tried (unsuccessfully) to convince the world it was on a path to normalization, money managers have piled into gold (futures and options) at near record pace...

 

Stor efterfrågan för silver i USA

Publicerad 2016-06-21 08:05:34 i Ekonomi,

Global-Physical-Silver-Investment-Demand-2015NEW
 

The United States experienced a huge increase in silver bar demand in 2015 due to the inclusion of “Private rounds and bars” now in the data.  So, all private silver bar and rounds sold are lumped into the Silver Bar category.

Even though India ranked first place when it comes to silver bar demand, if we include Official Coin sales, the U.S. is now the global leader of physical silver investment:

Skulderna ökar i rekordtakt samtidigt som företagen blir sämre på att betala på lånen och vinsterna fortsätter o falla. När öppnas fall luckan?????????

Publicerad 2016-06-19 14:19:29 i Ekonomi,

This chart shows how much debt non-financial corporations owe relative to GDP. The higher the ratio, the more outstanding corporate debt there is relative to the size of the economy.

You can see this key ratio is approaching a record high. The last three times corporate debt raced ahead of the economy like this, recessions followed.

You can see in the chart below that the number of delinquent commercial loans (30 days or more) has soared to new highs. Delinquencies are rising faster today than they did during the last financial crisis.

Today’s chart shows the S&P 500 and the trailing 12-month earnings for companies that make up the index. You can see earnings stopped growing in 2014.

Since then, earnings have kept falling. As we said earlier, Wall Street expects them to decline again next quarter. That would mark the fifth straight quarter of declining earnings, which is the longest such streak since the 2008–2009 financial crisis.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 hasn’t set a new high in over a year. But it hasn’t fallen much, either.

With earnings in decline and stocks going nowhere, investors are paying more for every dollar S&P 500 companies earn. In other words, even though stocks aren’t rising, they’re getting more expensive.

Är det bankernas negativa börsutveckling som leder till stora nedgångar för börserna

Publicerad 2016-06-19 11:28:03 i Ekonomi,

For all the talk of market turbulence and volatility ahead of the Brexit vote, the reality is that after the selloff scare in late January and February, the S&P500 has barely registered any of the global fears that have roiled virtually all other foreign markets, and just two weeks ago the S&P500 trading less than a percent away from all time highs.

And yet, there is one chart that shows that underneath the placid surface of the S&P not all is well. The chart is the following, and demonstrates the substantial recent selloff in US bank stocks, which have been a near-flawless 'canary in the coalmine' ahead of major market inflection points, and which have successfully predicted most major crashes in the past several decades. 

As Deutsche Bank explains, the chart above shows a rolling pct change from 52wk high of US bank index (S5BANKX) against SPX. The key point here is that there were a couple of instances in the past where banks’ underperformance of SPX bottomed out near -15% range, namely in 1994 rate hiking campaign and in 2011/2012 around the peak in EU breakup fears. And then there are three instances where this metric went to -20% and over that level, and all those three were associated with turning credit cycles(highlighted in red in Figure 4).

So is it time for another steep, "red" drop indicative of an imminent market crash?  

Lyssna på SGTReport

Publicerad 2016-06-17 08:41:12 i Ekonomi,

 

Writer and researcher David Jensen returns to SGT report to discuss the latest precious metal developments at the Comex and LBMA. David explains, “The disappearance of visible metal stockpiles are pointing to the fact that Gresham’s Law is taking root and the metal is being swept away leaving only the digital contracts swirling around on these exchanges.”

David and I also discuss the outlook for the US petrodollar and David reminds us that some of the smartest people in the world are warning “We are reaching a crisis point… It’s going to be a massive event.” David says. “I just encourage people to take the steps that they can take to protect themselves. It’s going to be a very difficult time.”

You can read David’s original articles at SafeHaven.com

BREXIT nästa vecka???????????????

Publicerad 2016-06-17 08:33:41 i Ekonomi,

 
Once a nation no longer produces essential goods and services, and depends on financial games or commodities to pay for industrial goods and food produced elsewhere, it becomes vulnerable to a collapse in the financial games and the commodity markets that made it all too easy to succumb to de-industrialization.

Lyssna på Marc Faber

Publicerad 2016-06-16 10:13:03 i Ekonomi,

Marc Faber on investment strategy

 
 
Marc Faber, the editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, discuss potential investments with Brian Sullivan.

Lyssna på SGTREPORT

Publicerad 2016-06-14 10:53:14 i Ekonomi,

 
This is one precious metals mining company that must be music to First Majestic CEO Keith Nuemeyer’s ears!Nuemeyer you may recall, has been urging silver and gold mining companies to withhold at least some of their PHYSICAL metal as a means of revolting against the banker cartel’s endless manipulation of gold and silver prices through the paper markets. And MX Gold Corp CEO Akash Patel and CFO Kenneth Phillippe plan to do exactly that. in fact, the entire board at MX Gold Corp are gold bugs according to CFO Phillippe, “We believe having the physical gold in the vault makes a lot more sense than selling it at these prices.” This is one junior gold and silver miner to keep an eye on.

Lyssna på Max Keiser

Publicerad 2016-06-12 12:43:16 i Ekonomi,

 
In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max and Stacy reject the idea that anyone should earn a basic guaranteed income for merely sitting on their assets. In the second half, Max and Stacy interview two precious metals analysts – Craig Hemke of TFMetalsReport.com and Andrew Maguire of AndrewMaguireGoldTrading.com. The two give their forecasts for the gold market and discuss the latest in several admitted cases of gold price manipulation.

Fortsatt stort intresse för att fylla på guld i handlade ETF fonder. Hur skall Bullion Bankerna stänga sin enorma kort positioner om det är fortsatt stor efterfrågan på fysiskt guld.

Publicerad 2016-06-12 12:23:46 i Ekonomi,

chart looks at GLD’s daily gold-bullion holdings in tonnes superimposed over the gold price during the past several years or so.  Each calendar quarter’s GLD-holdings build or draw is noted in both percentage and tonnage terms, and compared to gold’s same-quarter price action.  GLD shares have been aggressively bought at a torrid pace by American stock investors prudently seeking portfolio gold exposure.

 

 

 

Gold COT Report - Futures

Large Speculators

Commercial

Total

Long

Short

Spreading

Long

Short

Long

Short

295,688

67,069

41,132

112,940

356,632

449,760

464,833

Change from Prior Reporting Period

21,099

-10,385

2,371

-20,684

8,970

2,786

956

Traders

164

88

76

47

62

252

193

 

 

Small Speculators

 

 

 

 

Long

Short

Open Interest

 

 

 

46,570

31,497

496,330

 

 

 

-777

1,053

2,009

 

 

 

non reportable positions

Change from the previous reporting period

 

COT Gold Report - Positions as of

Tuesday, June 07, 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vi närmar oss nu slutet för det monetära systemet som bygger på ökade skulder som tillväxtmotor. Med noll ränta och nästan obefintlig tillväxt måste systemet ändras vilket vi närmar oss varje dag.

Publicerad 2016-06-09 08:47:00 i Ekonomi,

 
That’s really all you need to know. That’s what broke the shebang. It is easy. And even if a bit more of the ‘surplus’ debt had been allowed to go towards the common man, it wouldn’t have made much difference. We’ve replaced growth with debt, because that is the only way to keep the -illusion of- the politico-economic system going, and thereby the only way for the incumbent powers to cling on to that power.
 
Indebted Economies

Någonting är på gång inom silver världen

Publicerad 2016-06-08 19:46:53 i Ekonomi,

You will notice in June 2015, during the huge spike of retail silver investment, that the total Registered silver inventories were nearly 60 Moz.  Over the next several months Registered silver inventories fell to approximately 42 Moz.  This was at the time that investors had to wait 2-3 months for certain retail silver investment products.

Then in October 2015, the tightness in the retail silver market began to loosen as the “Forecasted” market crash did not occur.  The Registered silver inventories stabilized and leveled off until the end of the year.  However, more large Registered silver withdrawals and transfers continued again in January 2016 as the price of silver surged from less than $14 to nearly $16 in March.  This was also at the same time the Dow Jones fell 2,000 points.

Even though the Registered silver inventories increased in March, they are currently at 15 year lows.  Moreover, the number of Owners Per Ounce of Registered silver has never been higher.  If we look at the 15 year chart above, we can see that the Owners Per Ounce of silver went exponential starting in 2016.

COMEX-Silver-Owners-Per-Oz-1-YEAR-060616

Extrema nivåer av optimism för börserna i USA

Publicerad 2016-06-03 10:21:00 i Ekonomi,

Screen Shot 2016-06-02 at 9.26.29 AM

Investors are driven by two emotions: fear and greed. Too much fear can sink stocks well below where they should be. When investors get greedy, they can bid up stock prices way too far.

So what emotion is driving the market now? CNNMoney's Fear & Greed index above makes it clear.

Here is the position of the index over time:

 Screen Shot 2016-06-02 at 9.37.08 AM
 
Screen Shot 2016-06-02 at 3.28.17 PM

JP Morgans Jamie Dimon varnar för billånen

Publicerad 2016-06-03 10:03:26 i Ekonomi,

As Bloomberg writes, "Americans surged into dealers’ showrooms as cheap gasoline and a growing job base helped boost auto sales to a record year for sales in 2015. Lenders followed: The average amount financed for new-car loans at finance companies rose to $27,986.15 in the fourth quarter of 2015, the highest level since the Federal Reserve began tracking that data in March 2008. Now, banks are worried the party could be over. U.S. auto sales fell in May for the second monthly decline this year and reinforced the idea that demand for cars and trucks has plateaued. The results for last month, whose Memorial Day weekend promotions make it a bellwether for gauging buyer appetite, show consumer demand for cars leveling off faster than executives predicted."
 
Jamie Dimon did issue one warning, which happens to be familiar to regular readers: the danger from auto loans. At the same Bernstein presentation, Dimon said the market for U.S. automobile lending is “a little stressed” and that he foresees higher losses ahead for some competitors. “Someone will get hurt in auto lending” he said, but quickly added it won't be JPMorgan.

Svårt att inte hissa varnings flaggan för recession i USA

Publicerad 2016-06-03 09:52:10 i Ekonomi,

Decreasing profits: Mish notes that corporate profits fell 7.6% in the first quarter against the same period a year ago. In order to pay back loans, companies need to continue to make more, and with less cash coming in, there will be less to allocate to debt.Screen Shot 2016 06 02 at 12.24.17 PM
  1. Lending standards are getting tighter: Firms also have the ability to pay down debt that is coming to maturity by issuing new debt, effectively kicking the can down the road. Lending conditions for new debt, however, are getting tighter as banks focus on higher quality borrowers. In turn, this makes it tougher for companies to pay for debt with more debt.
  2. Debt is getting more expensive: Loan spreads, or the difference between what banks have to pay to borrow money and what they charge companies in interest on loans they then give out, are starting to widen. In other words, new debt is getting more expensive.

Berenberg Bank tror på $1900 för guldet inom en två års period

Publicerad 2016-06-03 09:36:29 i Ekonomi,

Berenberg Bank was established back in 1590, and still remains relevant as it holds 40 billion in assets under management.

The smart money, large institutional money, who understands diversification and gold’s function as a store of value continues to diversify into gold. There is an awareness of gold’s benefit as a hedging instrument and safe haven asset but also an awareness that the outlook for prices at these still depressed levels is very positive. 
This is seen in the view of Berenberg, which is in the fifth century of its existence and one of the oldest owner managed banks in the world, who see gold returning to  2012 levels at $1,900/oz per ounce. 
The less informed money continues not to appreciate the risks that are again building in the system. Risk appetite remains high and there is a distinct lack of awareness regarding how risks, such as BREXIT, may impact financial markets and traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, property and indeed deposits. - Zerohedge

Det är inte lätt för pensions bolagen att nå den utlovade avkastningen

Publicerad 2016-06-03 09:22:07 i Ekonomi,

Today’s chart shows the “basket of assets” a typical investor would need to own to earn a 7.5% return. Remember, most pension funds aim for annual returns of between 7% and 8%.

In 1990, you could make this by owning just bonds. These days, you have to own stocks, real estate, and other risky assets to have a shot at a 7.5% return.

This is what the mainstream media calls “reaching for yield.” It’s why so many investors could lose a fortune during the financial crisis. Again, you can thank the Fed for this.

 

Bond gurun Bill Gross är inte speciellt positiv till dom finansiella marknaderna

Publicerad 2016-06-02 16:56:27 i Ekonomi,

Bill Gross doesn't think the future will look like the past.

In his latest investment outlook, published on Thursday morning, Gross wrote that he thinks the stellar returns experienced by both bond and stock investors over the last 40 years are an anomaly that will not be repeated.

Gross looks at two simple charts - the Barclays US Aggregate bond index and the S&P 500 - and says the steady upward march in bond prices and the rockier but still rewarding upward climb in stock prices can't happen again.

Here's Gross (emphasis added, charts his):

Since the inception of the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate or Lehman Bond index in 1976, investment grade bond markets have provided conservative investors with a 7.47% compound return with remarkably little volatility. An observer of the graph would be amazed, as was I, at the steady climb of wealth, even during significant bear markets when 30-year Treasury yields reached 15% in the early 80's and were tagged with the designation of "certificates of confiscation."

The graph proves otherwise, because as bond prices were going down, the higher and higher annual yields smoothed the damage and even led to positive returns during "headline" bear market periods such as 1979- 84, or more recently the "taper tantrum" of 2013. Quite remarkable, isn't it? A Sherlock Holmes sleuth interested in disproving this thesis would find few 12-month periods of time where the investment grade bond market produced negative returns.

Screen Shot 2016 06 02 at 8.30.07 AM

 

The path of stocks has not been so smooth but the annual returns (with dividends) have been over 3% higher than investment grade bonds as Chart 2 shows. That is how it should be: stocks displaying higher historical volatility but more return.

But my take from these observations is that this 40-year period of time has been quite remarkable - a grey if not black swan event that cannot be repeated. With interest rates near zero and now negative in many developed economies, near double digit annual returns for stocks and 7%+ for bonds approach a 5 or 6 Sigma event, as nerdish market technocrats might describe it.

You have a better chance of observing another era like the previous 40-year one on the planet Mars than you do here on good old Earth.

Screen Shot 2016 06 02 at 8.30.51 AM

As tends to be the case with almost all "black swan" references, it's unclear if this actually meets the criteria of a "black swan."

A "black swan" is a tail risk - or a negative event - that occurs outside the realm of what had once been deemed possible, but is now sort of used to describe "bad things we think might happen."

Of course, what good is pointing out that a phrase might not be used inside its original definition if a somewhat warped usage still effectively communicates a point we know the author is trying to make, right? In this case, Gross just wants to use "black swan" as a way to describe investment returns across more than one asset class that were better than math would've predicted inside something like a standard bell curve distribution. And we all sort of know that, so why be a pedant about it? Etc., etc.

The actual investing part of Gross' outlook implies, basically, that if you want good investment returns you'll have to go to space. Or something like that.

And as has been the theme in Gross' last several investment outlooks, he calls for tougher times ahead for investors that will see higher volatility and lower returns - which is, of course, the exact opposite of how financial risk-taking works. In theory.

Lyssna på Max Keiser

Publicerad 2016-06-02 16:39:45 i Ekonomi,

We discuss the ominous new trends linked to the fact that no ‘Mr Smiths’ have gone to Washington in decades. With corruption paying so well, monopolies and big box store businesses over run the previously job-producing regions of America. In the second half Max interviews Professor Robert McChesney about the media’s role in the US election so far – from $3 billion in free air time for Donald Trump to refusing to cover Bernie Sanders until late in the game. They also discuss ‘the defining moment’ as robots begin to replace more and more jobs and how this relates to the voters choosing Trump.

 

 

Mer dålig statistik inför FED mötet

Publicerad 2016-06-01 16:40:51 i Ekonomi,

Following a hope-strewn bounce in February and March, US Construction Spending plunged 1.8% in April (massively worse than the expected 0.6% rise). This is the biggest monthly drop since January 2011 as while religious construction surged 9.6%, Commercial, Healthcare, and Education construction all plunged with Communications and highway building collapsing 7.7% and 6.5% respectively. We ares ure wether will be blamed but the 1.5% drop in residential construction is rather notable for an April - it is the weakest April since 2009.

Following China's drop, Japan's plunge, and Brazil's crash, US Manufacturing PMI slipped once again to 50.7 - its weakest since September 2009 amid " subdued client demand and heightened economic uncertainty." New orders bounce is over as it fell to its weakest since Dec 2015 and worse still input costs are surging to 9 month highs as employment suggest payrolls will remain under pressure. ISM Manufacturing data improved marginally - leaving 50% of the last 10 months in contraction and 50% in expansion. The improvement seesm based on a rise in prices paid and customer inventories - hardly a positive sustainable trend. As Markit concludes,"for those looking for a rebound in the economy after the lacklustre start to the year, the deteriorating trend in manufacturing is not going to provide any comfort.”

Företagens skulder på rekordnivåer med sämre kreditbetyg

Publicerad 2016-06-01 10:50:02 i Ekonomi,

U.S. corporations have loaded up on debt over the past eight years. According to theFinancial Times, U.S. corporations have $4 trillion more debt on their balance sheets today than they did at the start of 2008.

Longtime Casey readers know we don’t put much stock in these ratings. Many companies that failed during the 2008 financial crisis had strong credit ratings right up until they went broke.

However, the near extinction of triple-A-rated companies shows you how fragile the market is today.

If you choose to own stocks, stick with companies with little to no debt. These companies have a much better chance of surviving the deflationary depression.

In the chart below that Corporate America’s cash-to-debt ratio has been falling since 2010.

According to S&P corporate balance sheets are the weakest they’ve been in at least a decade. 

 

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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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