Inflationsförväntningarna stiger med högre råvarupriser och stigande ränta. Silver är ansett som en av de bästa investeringarna för att skydda sig mot inflation men som med mycket annat i dessa tider så har det nog upphört att gälla. Eller.
Hopp om att Trump kommer få igång ekonomin visar sig nu i ekonomiska siffror problemet är att räntan fortsätter att stiga vilket kan göra livet surt för aktiebörserna
(Bloomberg) Treasuries are having their worst month since 2009 on a total return basis. Ten-year note yields surged about 23 basis points in October, and are up 53 basis points this month, to about 2.4 percent. The two-month move is the steepest climb since 2013, when fears of the Fed abruptly reducing stimulus led investors to sell Treasuries (aka, the Great Taper Tantrum of 2013).
USAs konsumenter är på samma goda humör som innan förra finans krisen. Kan Trump leverera dessa högt ställda förväntningar
As Bloomberg reports, bearish options hedging against a 10 percent price drop in the biggest gold exchange-traded fund cost the most since July 2015 relative to calls betting on a 10 percent jump.
And as is clear from the chart below, the last 3 times that options skew sentiment has become this bearish, the price of gold has soared (Nov 2014 +16%, Jul 2015 +11%, Nov 2015 +21%)...
Oron över utgången när det gäller den kommande helgens val i Italien märks i den 10 åriga ränta och val undersökningarna lutar åt nej.
Lager minskning bidrar inte positivt till BNP. Dagens siffra med en minskning om 0,4% kommer inte att hjälpa tillväxten.
The Russian central bank gold purchase is the biggest monthly gold purchase of this millennium.
Concerns about systemic risk, currency wars and the devaluation of the dollar, euro and other major currencies has led to ongoing diversification into gold bullion purchases by large creditor nation central banks such as Russia and China.
Durable Goods Orders jumped 4.8% MoM in October, the highest since the October 2015 (start of government fiscal year) bounce last year, thanks to a yuuge in transportation orders (up 12.0%) which included a surge in orders for civilian aircraft (up 138.5%) and military aircraft new orders (up 33.1%). However, Core Capital Goods Shipments, i.e. true CapEx, has now declined 15 straight months year-over-year (the longest non-recesionary streak in history).
Lots of excitement that Durable Goods (ex transport) turned green year-over-year for the first time since Dec 2014.
Yield kurvan är tillbaka till oktobers nivåer det är bara börserna som inte uppfattat och då speciellt finansiella aktier
Read more: https://sputniknews.com/europe/201611181047586844-eu-disunity-parlemeter-poll/
Goldmans index finacial conditions och S&P går helt åt olika håll. Frågan är vilken som går åt rätt håll.
Commodity prices will strengthen
The Emerging Market Bond Bloodbath has left a painful trail as investors pulled a record $546 million from the largest EM Bond ETF last week. As the US Dollar surges on the intermingled themes of Trumponomics' inflation and higher rates, EM and Asian FX rates are collapsing to Lehman crisis lows as the rest of the world suffers despite US equity gains.
US Equities are the only winners...
Leaving the largest EM Bond ETF 'stable' at a critical support level...
Commercials stänger nu sina kortningar i guld och det är nog bara en tidfråga innan dom går för ett stigande guldpris
Obvious Trump trade is to own Russian and...
30-Year Treasuries Continue To Plunge As Interest Rates Rise
U.S. Dollar Hits New Multi-Year Highs
Dow Jones Hits New All-Time Highs
Nasdaq Hits New All-Time Highs
A conspicuous feature in the year-over-year table is the volatility in energy, significantly a result of gasoline prices, which is also reflected in Transportation.
Here is the same table with month-over-month numbers (not seasonally adjusted). The nose-dive and subsequent recent increase in energy costs is clearly illustrated, reflected here too in transportation.
Kärninflationen har nu legat över FEDs 2% i ca ett år och Trumps expansiva stimulanser kommer självklart att spä på den siffran.
Har vi nu den första gången på nästan 100 år som den nedåtgående Industri produktionen inte leder till en recession i USA
Inflations förväntningarna i USA fortsätter upp och därmed räntorna. Guld och framför allt silver är naturliga investeringar mot inflation men dessa går ned då det är kraftigt manipulerade kurser med försäljningar i pappers marknaden motsvarande mer än en årsproduktion på bara några timmar. Slutligen kommer alltid verkligheten i kapp manipulationen.
Silver prices are currently low based on their 20 year “megaphone” pattern. Expect much higher prices.
Säger den kraftiga uppgången för koppar att vi nu skall förvänta oss högre inflation och högre räntor
Spricker bond bubblan när råvaror går upp i pris och vad händer med börsen när räntorna stiger för att inte tala om derivaten som är kopplade till räntemarknaden
'Italeave' Looms As Italian Crisis Indicator Spikes To Record High After Trump Win
That fear is most evident in Italian sovereign bonds which have collapsed dramatically in the last weeks (accelerating in the last few days) with 10Y BTP yields above 2.00% for the first time since July 2015 and the spread to Bunds at its highest in 2 years (despite collossal buying from the ECB)...
With bonds in free fall at long rates up from 2.1% to 2.95% in four months, it made me think of Santa's Pillars. Many oldtimers will recall this from about 10 years ago. It was always Pillar #5 that we hadn't crossed yet.
EU är minst lika delat som USA. Protester i Italien och i Barcelona. Italiens val den 4:e december kan bli nästa spik i EU kistan
In a very large demonstration against the planned constitutional referendum in Italy to take place on December 4th, 2016, the demonstrations are turning into riots. Hundreds of protesters threw smoke bombs, stones, and fireworks on policemen, who in turn used batons to beat the people. According to Italian media, one person was injured. The demonstrators tried to reach the place of the annual Democratic Party Congress held by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi taking their discontent directly to him. The mayor of Florence, Dario Nardella, condemned the violence as unacceptable.
To date, the demonstrations against Renzi were generally peaceful. The government has linked its political fate with the referendum on December 4 and Renzi has previous said he would resign if it is defeated like David Cameron in Britain. The propose constitutional reform is claimed to bring more stability to the country, ending frequent government changes. The proposal is planned to limit the role of the Senate and the responsibilities of the regional governments. This is federalizing the government and definitely weakening of democracy. Virtually every opinion polls shows the proposal is unpopular and will go down in defeat.
80,000 Catalans Gather Demanding Independence From Spain
According to the data put out by the World Gold Council, global gold investment demand increased to 1,390 metric tons during the first three-quarters of 2016 compared to full year 2014 and 2015:
the U.S. Mint sold a stunning 15,000 oz of Gold Eagles the day (Nov 8th) after the U.S. Presidential election:
In one day, the U.S. Mint sold a third of the Gold Eagle total sales for the month of November. This one day Gold Eagle sales of 15,000 oz is preview of the massive demand to come in the future.
While the gold price has been knocked lower the past few days, this is not at all an indicator of its real value. Nothing makes sense anymore in the markets as Central Banks scramble to deal with the increased volatility in the currency markets due to the election of Donald Trump to the White House.
Någon dumpade 150 ton pappersguld under 30 minuter. Bullion banks som låga ultra korta guldet inför valet byter nu sida och täcker sina kortningar och viktar upp på den långa sidan.
Räntorna i USA går upp på högre inflations förväntningar vilket kan få svåra konsekvenser för en mycket högt värderad börs.
Stökig 10 årig bond auktion efter Trumps vinst med en avkastning på över 2%. Inflations förväntningarna är på plats och med högre ränta torde det bli svårare att få börsen att stiga.
Well, if Trump really wants to blow out yields, he got a head start two months before he was even sworn in when moments ago the market threw up all over today's $23 billion in 10-Year paper, the first benchmark auction to price above 2% since January, and not only that but do so with one of the biggest "tails" on record, pricing at 2.02%, 1.6bps wide of the When Issued 2.004%. The internals were even more, ahem, deplorable, with the Bid to Cover tumbling from 2.53 in October to 2.22, the lowest since March 2009, as Indirects plunged from 62.7% to only 52.5%, the lowest since January 2015, and with Directs taking down just 8.3%, Dealers were stuck with 39.2% of the auction.
Overall, this was about as ugly an auction as we have seen in years, and if this is indicative of how the market will treat the Trump administration, we may find ourselves in an entirely new regime: one where the bond vigilantes take on not the Fed, but the president. Where have we seen that? Oh yes, in Italy in 2011. That particular episode resulted in the ouster of Berlusconi.
Otroligt att man kan rigga världens finansmarknader med tanke på dess storlek. Det kommer dock en dag då marknaderna visar sig vara för stora för CB att kontrollera
Here’s what Nick’s research shows for gold over the past 20 years:
Silver ETFs tend to have more retail investors than gold ETFs. But you can clearly see that silver investments in both funds and depositories have soared to a new record level. Those levels are more than twice what they were during the financial crisis of 2008-09. And when the silver price recently fell, investors loaded up.
The message here is clear:
• Investors are bullish on gold and silver. Many are buying more metal. Despite the current flat price, nobody’s selling on a net basis.
This doesn’t say things couldn’t reverse. What it is saying is that today, institutional investors see a strong reason to not just hold on to their gold and silver but to buy more. The price drop has been their opportunity to pounce. It’s safe to assume that they believe the reasons for holding precious metals have not gone away.
The number of countries in deflation really looks like it has peaked and rolled over (see chart below), inflation surprise indexes have turned up, and market-based measures of inflation expectations such as inflation swaps are also starting to turn up.
Obligationsmarknaden har sedan i somras vänt och börsen i USA har inte riktigt hängt med på nedsidan.
The movement back into non-fiat assets is starting again – anything connected to debt, like housing, is a de facto fiat asset. The best indicator of this is not gold, but silver. Silver was correlating with SPX for most of October, when the investment “thesis” was “a strengthening economy is good for industrial metals.”
The graph below illustrates this. It shows silver’s movement vs. the SPX for the last 3 months:
Confirming the weakness reported by regional Fed surveys, New York Purchasing Managers current business conditions contracted for the 3rd month in a row (at 49.2). This is the 5th contractionary print of the last six months and the weakest streak since 2009.
Following last night's massive inventory build report from API (biggest in 8 months), DOE piled on by confirming a 14.42mm barrel build - the biggest in the 34 year history of EIA data. Cushing saw a small build but Gasoline and Distillates saw drawdowns. Crude and RBOB prices are tumbling on the news, not helped by the 3rd weekly rise in US Crude production.
- Crude +9.3mm (+1.54mm avg. exp)
- Cushing +1mm (-250k exp)
- Gasoline -3.5mm (-1mm exp)
- Distillates -3.1mm
- Crude +14.42mm (+2mm exp)
- Cushing +89k (+235k exp)
- Gasoline -2.2mm (-1mm exp)
- Distillates -1.8mm (-1.9mm exp)
API's biggest build in 8 months was nothing compared to the 14.4mm build from DOE - the biggest build ever. Distillates have now drawn down for 6 straight weeks.
At this moment, we see a very interesting technical pattern forming on this graph. An inverse shoulder-head-shoulder pattern should be cleared on the right. This is a very bullish sign which perfectly corresponds with our previously outlined theory.
To be more concrete, when this formation has been completed, which could take up some more months, the path is ready to continue to 600 points and even higher. Consider that today the HUI-index moves around the 200 points!
And never forget: if this sector is on fire, nothing will keep it from stopping. We saw this already happen in the 2008 to 2011 period when the HUI-index jumped from 175 to 625 points (+257%).
Gold and silver mining shares went through the roof, but the JUNIOR shares in this sector went through the sky. Some of them jumped with multiple thousand percent’s!