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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Lyssna på SGTReport

Publicerad 2016-10-29 10:20:17 i Ekonomi,

 
FBI Director James Comey has caved to the pressure of public opinion, new email evidence from Wikileaks, and from his own outraged employees at the FBI, and he has re-opened the CRIMINAL investigation of Hilary Clinton. With less than two weeks until the election it would seem that Hilary is more likely to enter a prison cell than the Oval office.

BNP för Q3 i USA något över förväntan 2,9% mot förväntat 2,6%.

Publicerad 2016-10-28 14:56:12 i Ekonomi,

For once it appears that the Atlanta Fed, with its 2.1% Q3 GDP nowcast was overly pessimistic - although perhaps the November 8 election may have had something to do with it - and moments ago the BEA reported that in the third quarter, US GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.9%  according to the first "advance" estimate released up more than double from the Q2 real GDP of 1.4%, and beating Wall Street consensus of a 2.6% rise in the quarter. The move higher was driven by a jump in inventory accumulation and exports, while consumption disappointed, as Real Consumer Spending rose 2.1% Q/Q, far below the 4.3% spike in Q2 and missing estimates of a 2.6% print.

The rebound was driven by a jump in inventories which contributed 0.6% to the bottom line, while net trade added another 0.8%, up from just 0.1% in Q2.

Personal consumption which was a major outlier in Q2, contracted notably, and rose by just 1.47% in Q3, down nearly by half from 2.88% in Q2.

Räntehöjning????????????

Publicerad 2016-10-26 10:56:29 i Ekonomi,

For the first time since 2012, the Richmond Fed business surveyr has been in contraction (below 0) for 3 straight months (and 4 of the last 5). Worse still, the six-month average of the business survey has not deteriorated this fast since Q2 2008. While the underlying components were mixed, inventory levels dropped (bad for GDP), average workweek tumbled (bad for incomes), and new orders re-plunged.

This is the worst drop in the six-month average of the Richmond Fed survey since Q2 2008...

 

James Turks långa silver chart

Publicerad 2016-10-25 15:42:30 i Ekonomi,

I’d like to take another look at my long-term silver chart. You will recall the last time we discussed it was in July. Back then silver had just broken above its long-term downtrend line, which was the best news for silver in five years.
kwn-turk-i-10242016

Hur länge till kan detta Pyramidspel fortsätta när räntan är noll eller negativ samtidigt som tillväxten knappt är synbar. Det behövs nya pengar och takten måste öka för att hålla pyramiden levande.

Publicerad 2016-10-25 14:30:00 i Ekonomi,

In practice, over the last 40 years the deception of funny money and rapid credit creation is what kept the illusion of growth and prosperity alive.  But over the last 8 years that illusion has been shattered by the following realities:

Oceans of red ink.  An over indebted economy.  A debauched currency.  A debased culture.  A despoiled political process.  Criminal leaders.  Budding civil unrest.  And much, much more.

2-debt-and-gdp

 

 

Ser vi en toppformation för dollarn liknande 2000-2002

Publicerad 2016-10-25 14:16:42 i Ekonomi,

Please notice the triple top in the USD that formed back in the 2000 – 2002. This is when Gold was bottoming and began moving higher. Do we see that now?

gold-usd

 Lets Zoom in on the USD  so we can see the triple top forming in 2000 – 2002.  It looks somewhat  similar to what we see the USD doing now, I see divergence.  I want to zoom in closer to show you 1 more important fact.

2-usd-and-gold-rise-2

Är Italien nästa land att lämna EU

Publicerad 2016-10-24 15:27:30 i Ekonomi,

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi threatened to step down if a December government-reform measure he seeks does not pass.

The reform will dramatically reduce the power of the Senate. It will also give a parliamentary majority to the party that gets the most votes. Renzi wants that authority.

Ironically, if the referendum does pass, Italy is more likely to leave the Euro than if it doesn’t. A graph of Italian Voter Polls shows why.

Opinion Polling for the Next Italian General Election

italian-polls-2

Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement party (M5S) is now neck and neck with Renzi’s PD party. M5S is decidedly eurosceptic.

Should the referendum pass, but Renzi lose the next election, a eurosceptic party will have control over Italy.

Renzi’s gamble is that he will win the referendum, consolidate power ahead of the next election, and stave off election of M5S. That’s quite the gamble given how support for Renzi has collapsed.

Goldman reviderar ned sina prognoser för vinstutsikterna när det gäller perioden 2016-2019 för SP 500

Publicerad 2016-10-24 15:22:38 i Ekonomi,

To wit:

  • We cut our S&P 500 earnings estimates for each of the next several years. Our revised operating EPS forecasts now equal $105 (2016), $116 (2017), and $122 (2018) reflecting annual growth of 5%, 10%, and 5%, respectively. Low interest rates and peaking margins constrain profit growth in Information Technology, Financials, and Telecom and drive the reduction in our index-level EPS forecast.
  • Our earnings model projects 5% sales growth and 8.5% margins for the S&P 500 in 2017 with margins peaking next year and starting to decline in 2018.
  • We maintain our S&P 500 price targets of 2100 for year-end 2016, 2200 at the end of 2017, and 2300 at the end of 2018, implying price changes from the current market level of -3%, +2%, and +6%, respectively.
  • From a valuation perspective our unchanged year-end 2016 target of 2100 represents a forward P/E multiple of 18x our 2017 top-down operating EPS estimate of $116 and 17x our 2017 top-down adjusted EPS estimate of $123, ranking at the 85th percentile relative to the past 40 years.
  • Key issues for investors in 2017: (1) secular stagnation and (2) peaking margins.

Summary of Goldman Sachs US Portfolio Strategy forecasts, 2015-2019E

 

Intresset för guld ETFer fortsätter vilket bäddar för en ny uppgångsfas i guldet

Publicerad 2016-10-22 11:35:44 i Ekonomi,

GLD’s mission is to track the gold price, but its shares have their own unique supply and demand that is totally independent from gold’s.  So when American stock investors buy GLD shares at faster paces than gold itself is being bought, they will soon decouple to the upside.  The only way GLD can keep on mirroring gold is if that excess differential buying pressure is equalized directly into the underlying gold market.

 

So when GLD-share demand exceeds gold’s, this ETF’s managers are forced to issue new GLD shares to offset this excess demand.  Then the resulting proceeds are immediately used to buy physical gold bullion that is held in trust for GLD’s shareholders.  Thus GLD’s holdings, which are published daily, reveal whether stock-market capital is flowing into or out of gold.  They too are green lighting gold’s next upleg.

 

 

 

När får vi höra ordet recession i USA

Publicerad 2016-10-21 17:15:34 i Ekonomi,

Celente spoke with KWN again today and stated:  “Eric, just look at the chart that shows the University of Michigan’s Confidence Composite, which forecasts each economic collapse after the highlighted yellow circles (see below).
kwn-celente-iv-10202016
 

Celente continued:  “And if that’s not enough proof, Eric, just look at the collapsing Heavy Duty Truck Sales in the scary chart below:

 kwn-celente-v-10202016

Lyssna på Max Keiser

Publicerad 2016-10-20 11:26:00 i Ekonomi,

We discuss more warnings of global economic imbalances and the failings of neoliberalism. Mom joins in! Max then talks to Mike Maloney of GoldSilver.com about his latest chapter in his online documentary on monetary history, Hidden Secrets of Money.

Köpläge i guld

Publicerad 2016-10-20 11:24:50 i Ekonomi,

http://goldseek.com/news/2016/10-19pd/image001.jpg
 It shows the gold price in comparison to the US Monetary Base.  This index shows important turnaround points for gold, as seen in the early 1970’s, 2001, 2009 and now in 2016.  The amazing take-away from this chart is that gold is presently the cheapest it has been in at least 100 years!  We may never see it this affordable again in our lifetime.
http://goldseek.com/news/2016/10-19pd/image002.jpg
http://goldseek.com/news/2016/10-19pd/image003.jpg
http://goldseek.com/news/2016/10-19pd/image004.png
http://goldseek.com/news/2016/10-19pd/image006.jpg
 

Köpläge i silvret

Publicerad 2016-10-20 10:26:00 i Ekonomi,

 
KWN Fitzpatrick I 7:28:2016
Silver has tended to retest the breakout levels since setting its trend low last December. It did this in February and June. A continuation of this trend would leave opportune silver levels in the $17.70 – $18.01 support area (see chart below).
KWN Fitzpatrick II 7:28:2016
 
http://goldseek.com/news/2016/10-19pd/image009.jpg
 
http://goldseek.com/news/2016/10-19pd/image010.png
 
 

Indikerar lägre margin debt att vi har sett toppen och är i en Bear Market

Publicerad 2016-10-12 10:37:56 i Ekonomi,

Total NYSE margin debt is 7% below the all-time high set 18 months ago.

According to some, that means a bear market is way overdue.

That’s because margin debt typically peaks in advance of the stock market itself. In 2007, for example, margin debt peaked in July, three months before the bull market topping out in October. As Wolf Richter of the Wolf Street investment blog bluntly put it: Margin debt “has a bone-chilling habit of peaking right around the time stocks crash.”

Vad händer när räntorna stiger

Publicerad 2016-10-11 09:57:15 i Ekonomi,

This week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an eye-opening report on the ticking time bomb that is global debt, warning the nations of the world that if they don’t deleverage—and soon— there could be grave consequences. At the very least, we could continue to see sluggish growth. In 2015, global debt of the nonfinancial sector, including governments, households and nonfinancial firms, stood at a mind-boggling $152 trillion, or 225 percent of world GDP, an all-time high.

Global Gross Debt All Time High 

 

Lyssna på SGTREPORT

Publicerad 2016-10-05 13:31:25 i Ekonomi,

 
As the brutal correction in the mining stocks continues, we welcome Bryan Slusarchuk the President of K92 Mining back to provide an update and to discuss the concept of ‘peak gold’ which some analysts predict will occur in 2019 as global demand for physical gold continues to outstrip supply. In fact, Slusarchuk notes that 90 million ounces of NEW gold must be discovered each year just to keep pace with demand — however only 10 – 15 millions ounces of physical are being discovered annually. And as global debt continues to compound exponentially, we are in the perfect storm for gold and gold miners.

Har vi sett botten för de långa räntorna

Publicerad 2016-10-05 13:16:44 i Ekonomi,

To understand the financial markets, you need to understand the hierarchy of asset classes.

That hierarchy is as follows:

Globally, the stock market is about $69 trillion in size, trading about $191 billion in shares per day.

The bond markets are well north of $140 trillion, and trade about $700 billion in volume per day,

The bond market is the SMART money and reacts to major policy changes before stocks.

On that note, the bond market has realized QE is ending in Europe and Japan.

On that note, in July the bond markets signaled that something BIG is coming to the markets. The yields on 10-Year Treasuries, 10-Year JGBs and 10-Year Bunds rocketed higher.

Andrew Maguire förklarar nedgången för guld och silver för King World News

Publicerad 2016-10-04 21:36:13 i Ekonomi,

Whistleblower Andrew Maguire – A Staggering 1,000 Tonnes Of Paper Gold Rinsed Out Of Market In Today’s Takedown!

King World News - Andrew Maguire - A Staggering 1,000 Tonnes Of Paper Gold Rinsed Out Of The Market Today!

On the heels of a brutal takedown in the gold and silver markets, London metals trader and whistleblower Andrew Maguire told King World News that we have just seen a staggering 1,000 tonnes of paper gold rinsed out of the market today!

Eric King:  “Andrew, we’re seeing a massive takedown in the gold and silver markets today along with the shares, what’s really happening here?  What is really taking place?”

Andrew Maguire:  “Close to a staggering 1,000 tonnes of paper gold has been rinsed out in the paper gold markets today…

Andrew Maguire continues:  “That’s just below the targeted 100-day moving average that was taken out earlier today.  Before this is finished today, this will exceed over a shocking 1,000 tonnes of paper gold that will have been rinsed.

This takedown is a complete joke, and the wholesale market is all over (on the buy side of) this paper takedown.  This is a desperate effort by Western officials to cover massive offside pre-Brexit over-the-counter short positions put on by their agent bullion banks near the $1,275 level.

he Tidal Wave Of Selling Commenced As London Opened
The selling commenced today as soon as London opened.  The pit open saw massive short sell orders executed right at the outset of trading.  
But, Eric, it is important for KWN readers around the world to understand that this is a physical buying window for gold and silver that will not last long.

China’s PBOC Buying This Gold Smash
Western officials purposely waited for the Chinese to be on holiday before they began to smash the gold and silver prices.  But China will be back buying on Sunday night and they will surely capitalize on this discount.  However, even though the Chinese are on holiday, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) is not, and they are actively buying gold into this dip.

Officials and insiders already have the Non-Farm Payrolls data, and looking at the veracity of the paper gold selling, this suggests Non-Farm Payrolls will be a miss.  This is a massive overshoot taking place to the downside in the gold market, with hot (small speculator long) money now rinsed.  Wait until you see the COT report this week, Eric, it will actually capture the COT short covering and will reveal many of the small specs have been flushed.

“We’re Meeting These Guys Head On”
Now, with the bit firmly between their (the small speculators’) teeth, we could expect a test of the key Fibonacci .618 level at $1,267.20, as the hot money capitulates.  Worst case, I see $1,250 as a final bottom, where I will be a massive buyer.  For what it’s worth, Eric, we’re meeting these guys head on.  Meaning, we’re buying this bullshit takedown.”

 

När får vi höra ordet recession i USA

Publicerad 2016-10-04 16:16:07 i Ekonomi,

For the second month in a row, New York Purchasing Managers saw contraction in the headline, printing 49.6 (below 50). Though a slight improvement from August's 47.5, the outlook tumbled to 59.5 (from 65.5) but it was the carnage in the jobs market that is most notable. ISM NY Employment crashed from 54.9 to 33.9 - its biggest drop ever - back to June 2009 lows...

Probably nothing...

Den riktigt långa trenden för aktier som visar uppgången från 1982 samtidigt som räntorna började sina långa väg ned till dagens NIRP och ZIRP. När räntorna vänder upp får vi se en nedgång för börsen liknande 1929-32 eller 1966-82

Publicerad 2016-10-04 10:20:25 i Ekonomi,

Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. We're using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change regardless of the index price range.

The regression trendline drawn through the data clarifies the secular pattern of variance from the trend — those multi-year periods when the market trades above and below trend. That regression slope, incidentally, represents an annualized growth rate of 1.79%.

Regression to Trend

 
 
Stanrdard Deviations
 
 

Är det möjligen de minskade återköpen av aktier i USA som kommer att få börsen att rekylera nedåt

Publicerad 2016-10-04 09:32:00 i Ekonomi,

Underscoring the importance of buybacks to the recent rally was the latest note from Goldman's David Kostin, who observed that foreign investors and mutual funds sold $46 billion and $19 billion of equities in 2Q 2016. In contrast, corporations and households purchased $174 billion and $87 billion, respectively.

 

Drilling down, "corporate buybacks will remain the largest source of US equity demand this year. However, we expect share repurchases will be lower in 2H 2016 vs. 1H given reduced repurchase authorizations and weaker buyback activity in 3Q."

 

Kommer Julian Assange släppa något obehagligt för Clinton i morgon

Publicerad 2016-10-03 15:06:03 i Ekonomi,

Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is now planning to appear via video link Tuesday morning at Wikileak’s tenth anniversary celebration in Berlin.

According to @wikileaks, Julian Assange will appear via video link at Berlin press conference on Tuesday AM

 

As HeatSt.com reports, Wikileaks used its Facebook page to confirm that Assange would speak at the event, which takes place at 3am Eastern time.

Photo published for Under Intense Pressure to Silence Wikileaks, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Proposed Drone...

 

Lyssna på Jim Sinclair och Bill Holter

Publicerad 2016-10-02 11:26:27 i Ekonomi,

 
This weekend the mainstream media is reporting that ‘Germany’s Merkel cannot afford to bail out Deutsche Bank‘, to which we say, yeah no kidding. The $75 Trillion in derivatives on Deutsche bank’s books are sinking the bank like the Titanic, and the situation is terminal. Jim Sinclair and Bill Holter from JS Mnesetjoin me to discuss what Jim says is “the most dangerous period in world history” and as goes Deutsche bank. “so goes the world.”

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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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