For once it appears that the Atlanta Fed, with its 2.1% Q3 GDP nowcast was overly pessimistic - although perhaps the November 8 election may have had something to do with it - and moments ago the BEA reported that in the third quarter, US GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.9% according to the first "advance" estimate released up more than double from the Q2 real GDP of 1.4%, and beating Wall Street consensus of a 2.6% rise in the quarter. The move higher was driven by a jump in inventory accumulation and exports, while consumption disappointed, as Real Consumer Spending rose 2.1% Q/Q, far below the 4.3% spike in Q2 and missing estimates of a 2.6% print.
The rebound was driven by a jump in inventories which contributed 0.6% to the bottom line, while net trade added another 0.8%, up from just 0.1% in Q2.
Personal consumption which was a major outlier in Q2, contracted notably, and rose by just 1.47% in Q3, down nearly by half from 2.88% in Q2.
Well, right now, bonds are selling off… HARD.
Stocks are on borrowed time. Smart investors are already preparing for this. Bonds are signaling a real problem is underway.
For the first time since 2012, the Richmond Fed business surveyr has been in contraction (below 0) for 3 straight months (and 4 of the last 5). Worse still, the six-month average of the business survey has not deteriorated this fast since Q2 2008. While the underlying components were mixed, inventory levels dropped (bad for GDP), average workweek tumbled (bad for incomes), and new orders re-plunged.
This is the worst drop in the six-month average of the Richmond Fed survey since Q2 2008...
Hur länge till kan detta Pyramidspel fortsätta när räntan är noll eller negativ samtidigt som tillväxten knappt är synbar. Det behövs nya pengar och takten måste öka för att hålla pyramiden levande.
In practice, over the last 40 years the deception of funny money and rapid credit creation is what kept the illusion of growth and prosperity alive. But over the last 8 years that illusion has been shattered by the following realities:
Oceans of red ink. An over indebted economy. A debauched currency. A debased culture. A despoiled political process. Criminal leaders. Budding civil unrest. And much, much more.
Please notice the triple top in the USD that formed back in the 2000 – 2002. This is when Gold was bottoming and began moving higher. Do we see that now?
Lets Zoom in on the USD so we can see the triple top forming in 2000 – 2002. It looks somewhat similar to what we see the USD doing now, I see divergence. I want to zoom in closer to show you 1 more important fact.
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi threatened to step down if a December government-reform measure he seeks does not pass.
The reform will dramatically reduce the power of the Senate. It will also give a parliamentary majority to the party that gets the most votes. Renzi wants that authority.
Ironically, if the referendum does pass, Italy is more likely to leave the Euro than if it doesn’t. A graph of Italian Voter Polls shows why.
Opinion Polling for the Next Italian General Election
Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement party (M5S) is now neck and neck with Renzi’s PD party. M5S is decidedly eurosceptic.
Should the referendum pass, but Renzi lose the next election, a eurosceptic party will have control over Italy.
Renzi’s gamble is that he will win the referendum, consolidate power ahead of the next election, and stave off election of M5S. That’s quite the gamble given how support for Renzi has collapsed.
Goldman reviderar ned sina prognoser för vinstutsikterna när det gäller perioden 2016-2019 för SP 500
- We cut our S&P 500 earnings estimates for each of the next several years. Our revised operating EPS forecasts now equal $105 (2016), $116 (2017), and $122 (2018) reflecting annual growth of 5%, 10%, and 5%, respectively. Low interest rates and peaking margins constrain profit growth in Information Technology, Financials, and Telecom and drive the reduction in our index-level EPS forecast.
- Our earnings model projects 5% sales growth and 8.5% margins for the S&P 500 in 2017 with margins peaking next year and starting to decline in 2018.
- We maintain our S&P 500 price targets of 2100 for year-end 2016, 2200 at the end of 2017, and 2300 at the end of 2018, implying price changes from the current market level of -3%, +2%, and +6%, respectively.
- From a valuation perspective our unchanged year-end 2016 target of 2100 represents a forward P/E multiple of 18x our 2017 top-down operating EPS estimate of $116 and 17x our 2017 top-down adjusted EPS estimate of $123, ranking at the 85th percentile relative to the past 40 years.
- Key issues for investors in 2017: (1) secular stagnation and (2) peaking margins.
Summary of Goldman Sachs US Portfolio Strategy forecasts, 2015-2019E
King World News note: Below you can see the commercial hedgers position in the gold market. Note that commercial hedgers have continued to dramatically reduce their short positions on the recent takedown in the price of gold (see 10-year chart below).
GLD’s mission is to track the gold price, but its shares have their own unique supply and demand that is totally independent from gold’s. So when American stock investors buy GLD shares at faster paces than gold itself is being bought, they will soon decouple to the upside. The only way GLD can keep on mirroring gold is if that excess differential buying pressure is equalized directly into the underlying gold market.
So when GLD-share demand exceeds gold’s, this ETF’s managers are forced to issue new GLD shares to offset this excess demand. Then the resulting proceeds are immediately used to buy physical gold bullion that is held in trust for GLD’s shareholders. Thus GLD’s holdings, which are published daily, reveal whether stock-market capital is flowing into or out of gold. They too are green lighting gold’s next upleg.
Celente continued: “And if that’s not enough proof, Eric, just look at the collapsing Heavy Duty Truck Sales in the scary chart below:
Restaurant Performance Index Now In Free-Fall Decline
Fortsatt inflöden av guld till ETF fonderna samtidigt som Bullion Banks pressar guldpriset för att täcka sina korta positioner
Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader pointed out that while small speculators have been puking up long gold positions in the paper market, the “smart money” has been buying GLD (see chart below).
Spec positions in gold futures dropped 20% while GLD holdings rose
Börsen och skatteintäkterna brukar hänga ihop men inte i den nya ekonomin där företagens intjäning inte spelar någon roll utan det viktiga är att få nya pengar till pyramidspelet
Långa räntan stiger inte för att ekonomin blir bättre utan för att inflations förväntningarna stiger vilket är det sämsta tänkbara för börsen. När får vi höra ordet ekonomisk stagflation????
AUGUST CHANGE IN COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LENDING DECLINED BELOW ZERO FOR FIRST TIME SINCE THE GREAT RECESSION
More evidence of an economic slowdown. In August, change in Commercial & Industrial lending for below zero
What you are looking at it a Gallup poll of investors just did this week of stock market investors and they are now more bullish on the stock market than they have been since it peaked out in 2007.
From a contrarian standpoint this is very bearish, because the masses tend to be be wrong at key market turning points.
Notice in 2009 they were all negative.
Core inflationen i USA är snarare på väg upp än ner vilket nu räntemarknaden börjar agera på. Guldet har gått upp och CRB index har stigit med ca 21% under året. Stagflationen börjar nu uppenbara sig allt mer vilket inte gynnar aktiekurserna
Total NYSE margin debt is 7% below the all-time high set 18 months ago.
According to some, that means a bear market is way overdue.
That’s because margin debt typically peaks in advance of the stock market itself. In 2007, for example, margin debt peaked in July, three months before the bull market topping out in October. As Wolf Richter of the Wolf Street investment blog bluntly put it: Margin debt “has a bone-chilling habit of peaking right around the time stocks crash.”
Kommer Pundets ras leda till inflation och högre räntor i UK och vad händer då med fastighetsbubblan i London
This week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an eye-opening report on the ticking time bomb that is global debt, warning the nations of the world that if they don’t deleverage—and soon— there could be grave consequences. At the very least, we could continue to see sluggish growth. In 2015, global debt of the nonfinancial sector, including governments, households and nonfinancial firms, stood at a mind-boggling $152 trillion, or 225 percent of world GDP, an all-time high.
In itself, the latest COT is not supportive of a renewed rally in gold. While positions did ease significantly last week, there is still a heavy Large Spec long position overhang that would need to be cleared out before we can forward to another major rally in gold.
Över 30 år med sjunkande räntor högre börs och fastighetspriser. Är det slut nu och vi ser 30 år med högre räntor????????????
UK har varit den klart dominerande köparen i Spanien och många frågar sig nu vad som kommer att hända med ett Pund som bara sjunker och sjunker i värde
Spanish property market – British buyers are the largest group of foreign buyers by far.
Börjar CB förstå att deras vansinne inte leder till bättre ekonomi eller är det att hoppas för mycket
På mindre än en vecka har man tryckt ned silver priset med ca 10%. Anledningen bedöms vara för att täcka bullion banks rekord kortningar i silver och guld.
With the worst week (and it's not over yet) since April 2013, Silver is getting slayed since it spiked towards $20 on Friday...
Guld och silver är utsatta för pappers försäljning, ca 1000 ton pappersguld under en dag vilket motsvarar nästan 50% av en årsproduktion. Detta händer om och om igen bara för att bullion bank skall kunna täcka sina korta positioner i future marknaden. Är dom nöjda med $1250 för guldet och $17 för silvret.
Read more at http://www.maxkeiser.com/#r1HLY7SSo8h0RiTi.99
To understand the financial markets, you need to understand the hierarchy of asset classes.
That hierarchy is as follows:
Globally, the stock market is about $69 trillion in size, trading about $191 billion in shares per day.
The bond markets are well north of $140 trillion, and trade about $700 billion in volume per day,
The bond market is the SMART money and reacts to major policy changes before stocks.
On that note, the bond market has realized QE is ending in Europe and Japan.
On that note, in July the bond markets signaled that something BIG is coming to the markets. The yields on 10-Year Treasuries, 10-Year JGBs and 10-Year Bunds rocketed higher.
Whistleblower Andrew Maguire – A Staggering 1,000 Tonnes Of Paper Gold Rinsed Out Of Market In Today’s Takedown!
On the heels of a brutal takedown in the gold and silver markets, London metals trader and whistleblower Andrew Maguire told King World News that we have just seen a staggering 1,000 tonnes of paper gold rinsed out of the market today!
Eric King: “Andrew, we’re seeing a massive takedown in the gold and silver markets today along with the shares, what’s really happening here? What is really taking place?”
Andrew Maguire: “Close to a staggering 1,000 tonnes of paper gold has been rinsed out in the paper gold markets today…
Andrew Maguire continues: “That’s just below the targeted 100-day moving average that was taken out earlier today. Before this is finished today, this will exceed over a shocking 1,000 tonnes of paper gold that will have been rinsed.
This takedown is a complete joke, and the wholesale market is all over (on the buy side of) this paper takedown. This is a desperate effort by Western officials to cover massive offside pre-Brexit over-the-counter short positions put on by their agent bullion banks near the $1,275 level.
he Tidal Wave Of Selling Commenced As London Opened
The selling commenced today as soon as London opened. The pit open saw massive short sell orders executed right at the outset of trading. But, Eric, it is important for KWN readers around the world to understand that this is a physical buying window for gold and silver that will not last long.
China’s PBOC Buying This Gold Smash
Western officials purposely waited for the Chinese to be on holiday before they began to smash the gold and silver prices. But China will be back buying on Sunday night and they will surely capitalize on this discount. However, even though the Chinese are on holiday, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) is not, and they are actively buying gold into this dip.
Officials and insiders already have the Non-Farm Payrolls data, and looking at the veracity of the paper gold selling, this suggests Non-Farm Payrolls will be a miss. This is a massive overshoot taking place to the downside in the gold market, with hot (small speculator long) money now rinsed. Wait until you see the COT report this week, Eric, it will actually capture the COT short covering and will reveal many of the small specs have been flushed.
“We’re Meeting These Guys Head On”
Now, with the bit firmly between their (the small speculators’) teeth, we could expect a test of the key Fibonacci .618 level at $1,267.20, as the hot money capitulates. Worst case, I see $1,250 as a final bottom, where I will be a massive buyer. For what it’s worth, Eric, we’re meeting these guys head on. Meaning, we’re buying this bullshit takedown.”
For the second month in a row, New York Purchasing Managers saw contraction in the headline, printing 49.6 (below 50). Though a slight improvement from August's 47.5, the outlook tumbled to 59.5 (from 65.5) but it was the carnage in the jobs market that is most notable. ISM NY Employment crashed from 54.9 to 33.9 - its biggest drop ever - back to June 2009 lows...
Den riktigt långa trenden för aktier som visar uppgången från 1982 samtidigt som räntorna började sina långa väg ned till dagens NIRP och ZIRP. När räntorna vänder upp får vi se en nedgång för börsen liknande 1929-32 eller 1966-82
Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. We're using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change regardless of the index price range.
The regression trendline drawn through the data clarifies the secular pattern of variance from the trend — those multi-year periods when the market trades above and below trend. That regression slope, incidentally, represents an annualized growth rate of 1.79%.
Underscoring the importance of buybacks to the recent rally was the latest note from Goldman's David Kostin, who observed that foreign investors and mutual funds sold $46 billion and $19 billion of equities in 2Q 2016. In contrast, corporations and households purchased $174 billion and $87 billion, respectively.
Drilling down, "corporate buybacks will remain the largest source of US equity demand this year. However, we expect share repurchases will be lower in 2H 2016 vs. 1H given reduced repurchase authorizations and weaker buyback activity in 3Q."