Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.
The Trump administration just fired the first shot in the US-European currency, and thus trade, wars when Trump's top trade advisor Peter Navarro accused Germany of using a “grossly undervalued” euro to "exploit the US and its EU partners", the FT reported noting the comments are "likely to trigger alarm in Europe’s largest economy." News of the statement sent the EURUSD surging and the dollar tumbling to fresh 2 month lows.
The IMF argues correctly that Greek debt is unsustainable. Previously the IMF correctly argued Greece could not maintain a primary account surplus of 3.5 percent.
Yet the IMF now demands Greece automatically implement rules forcing it to have a primary account surplus of 3.5 percent of GDP as far as the eye can see.
Last week Eurointelligence reported that Greek officials were elated the much-despised IMF might exit the program. Although Greece hates the IMF, the IMF has at least been partially on Greece’s side, arguing for debt reductions.
Were the IMF to actually pull out to happen, Schaeuble wants Greece out of the Eurozone.
Meanwhile, Eurozone officials pretend the program is working when they know full well its not.
As Bloomberg notes, consumer prices rose 1.9 percent from a year ago, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Monday. That’s up from 1.7 percent the previous month and the highest rate since July 2013, though below the median estimate of 2 percent in a Bloomberg survey. Prices slid 0.8 percent from December.
The surge in German inflation since the end of last year is a potential political flashpoint in the country, which faces elections in September, as savers remain burdened with near-zero deposit rates. Calls are mounting for the ECB to start talks over winding down its bond-buying program, which is scheduled to run until at least the end of this year, though policy makers have generally urged caution until it’s clear price increases are being sustained in the euro area as a whole.
Is Trump a wolf in sheep’s clothing? His use of Executive Orders to implement the change we were hoping to see is the same tactic Obama employed to get his way while in the White House. It’s a tactic that is not constitutional., and it could easily be the slippery slope that leads into absolute Despotism if Trump goes off track. Marty from the MartyLeeds33 You Tube channel joins me to discuss.
Trump just killed the secretive globalist TPP trade agreement today. Louis Cammarosano from Smaulgld.com joins me to expose the horrible truth about Donald Trump.
Brent Johnson is a San Francisco-based hedge fund manager and he’s a longtime friend of TFMR. He consistently puts out high quality, educational presentations and his latest is no exception.
Please carve out some time to watch this video. Over the course of 24 minutes, Brent addresses many of the themes that we discuss here on a daily basis but he comes to some different, short-term conclusions. Because of this, I thought it would be fun to hash out some additional thoughts on these subjects and have invited Brent to join us this Thursday for A2A.
Mark Dice is asking people to choose between a free Snickers bar or a free 1/10 ounce gold coin (worth around $140.00) , the result is surprising and hilarious as this shows that the average person does not really understand precious metals
Based on an average of four valuation indicators the S&P 500’s valuation for today is the same as it was at the 1929 peak and second only to the 2000 peak.
Over the past several years, a raging debate among debt-watchers was whether Obama would leave the presidency with more than $20 trillion in US national debt. We now have the answer, and can report that Obama failed in this particular endeavor... but just barely. According to the US Treasury, as of the most recent update, total Federal debt was some $39 billion short of the key "psychological level", clocking in at precisely 19,961,467,137,973.64.
This means that both "Dow 20,000" and "Debt $20,000,000,000,000" accomplishments will belong to Trump. It is still unclear which comes first.
And while some may be disappointed, Obama's achievement is still quite impressive: in exactly 8 years, total US debt has increased by $9.3 trillion, or 88% since Obama's first day in office.
We discuss the soaring small business optimism which looks all euphoria, no action. In the second half Max interviews Reggie Middleton of BoomBustBlog.com about the T’rash to follow Trumphoria. They also discuss Trump’s tweeting industrial policy.
The first thing that probably sticks out on the chart is the 2008 episode. If you recall, that was when we had a surge in commodity prices (and a fairly broad-based surge at that, but oil was a key one) – this drove the proportion of countries with “hyperinflation” back up towards the levels of the 90’s where “hyperinflation” was more of the norm. It was swiftly reversed in the following year as commodity prices crashed and the global financial crisis shock hit.
But it wasn’t until the last couple of years that the deflation issue really came to the fore. The second char shows the gradual and then sudden surge in deflation across countries and across measures of inflation (CPI, core CPI, and PPI). Readers will be quick to note that PPI is more directly influenced by commodity prices, hence the lift we saw in recent years as the commodity supercycle turned from bull to bear market.
Let’s take a look at the Global Silver Market annual net balances from 1975 to 2016:
Let me explain this chart as it contains some interesting trend changes. First, the majority of annual net surpluses occurred from 1975-1987. This was after the U.S. and British Govt’s colluded to start the Gold & Silver Futures trading markets, which funneled investors funds into paper precious metals rather than physical.
So, how can the Global Silver Market suffer 17 years worth of consecutive silver deficits? Well, because there was over 2 billion oz of silver surpluses (1975-1999) put away for a rainy day:
Of course these figures are best estimates and do come from an official source that may have the motivation to under-report the real situation, but we can clearly see that a lot of silver has moved out of the market and is now likely be held by extremely tight hands.
While the market is nothing more than one huge “Intervention”, these official figures reporting 17 years of consecutive net silver deficits means the silver market is poised for something extremely big. And, I am not saying that just because I am a silver investor. The PROOF is right in front of us. No need to hype something that is totally making the CASE for us.
Each day since Trump's victory investors in top physical gold-backed exchange traded fund – SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA: GLD) – have pulled money out of the fund.
The losing streak was the longest on record – 43 trading days without net inflows. After dumping 138.8 tonnes since November 9, on Friday gold bulls were finally convinced to jump back in, picking up just under 3 tonnes.
If you want to see what’s happening in the REAL economy, you need to look at tax receipts. When the economy is growing tax receipts rise. When it is shrinking, tax receipts fall.
As you can see below, tax receipts have gone NEGATIVE.
Graham Summers tells us that While CNBC and the financial media are pushing investors to buy into the “Stocks going to the moon” narrative, another asset class as just staged a once in a decade breakout.
That asset is Gold. The breakout is a bullish cross over in which the 50-WMA breaking about the 200-WMA.
This has only happened ONE other time in the last 16 years: in 2002.
That was the start of the last MAJOR bull market in Gold.
November saw inventories rise more than expected (+1.0% MoM vs +0.9% exp) and sales disappoint (+0.4% vs +0.5% exp) and were notably revised lower. This sent the inventories-to-sales ratio back up again - stubbornly stuck in recessionary territory.
Now, however this super strong, frequently tested downward trend line is at risk of being broken. 2.55% to 2.60% is the current "top" of this trend line, and over the past few weeks it has held and reversed lower by 15 basis points or so. BUT----------. And this is my only forecast for the 10-year in 2017. If 2.60% is broken on the upside – if yields move higher than 2.60% – a secular bear bond market has begun. Watch the 2.6% level. Much more important than Dow 20,000. Much more important than $60-a-barrel oil. Much more important that the Dollar/Euro parity at 1.00. It is the key to interest rate levels and perhaps stock price levels in 2017.
When the fundamentals are confusing, however, technical indicators may come to the rescue and it's there where a super three decade downward sloping trend line for 10-year yields could be critical.
Keith Neumeyer, the CEO of First Majestic Silver Corp returns to dissect the documented manipulation of the silver market in 2016, and the road ahead. As we post this interview, the stated US debt is on the cusp of $20 Trillion, Bitcoin just surpassed $1,025 yet silver sits around $16. But the hard numbers outlined at US Debt Clock.org show that the REAL silver price in today’s dollars should be $1,005/ounce. Only the clear and present manipulation of the precious metals is keeping them from reaching Bitcoin’s heights. We also get an update from Keith on Silver One Resources, First Mining Finance and First Majestic Silver.
The fly in the ointment here is corporate profits have been stagnating since 2014. Here is the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) chart of pre-tax corporate profits:
Is it just coincidence that a strong dollar is correlated to recessions?
Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.
