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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Köp råvaror

Publicerad 2017-09-28 10:46:24 i Ekonomi,

The last 2x commodities were this undervalued, the USD was significantly devalued v gold (early '30s, early 70s).

Finns det några fria marknader??????????

Publicerad 2017-09-27 13:38:58 i Ekonomi,

Let the above chart sink in for a while. The BOJ now owns 75% of Japanese ETFs. The Swiss National Bank is now a hedge fund owning $85 billion of US stocks. The ECB is funding M&A deals at zero yields.

How can anyone be talking about the market economy in any major developed country? It was a casino before, but today even the casino owners would be surprised by the skill of governments and central banks.

Or should we all now start to invest in The Swiss National Bank? Price of their shares is up 11 days in a row, soaring 150% in the last two months. Where is the discussion about the risks involved? Is there any clear exit strategy and timeline for putting these assets out of central bank balance sheets? Will the productive economy end up being owned by governments in full as the time goes by? Is sky the limit?

Litar inte bond marknaden på PMI siffrorna

Publicerad 2017-09-26 15:19:22 i Ekonomi,

Stronger growth and higher inflation are typically the key ingredients for higher bond yields, and certainly make it harder to argue for ongoing QE: we’ve already seen the Fed announce passive QT – coming full circle in its program, while the ECB will be stepping away from QE soon, and the BoJ is grappling with the costs vs benefits of its relentless asset purchase program.  So is the bond market “wrong” about the global economy?  Time will tell.

The US 10-Year government bond yield has diverged to the downside against the DM composite PMI, whose September flash reading jumped to the highest level since January.

developed markets bond yields vs pmi manufacturing charted_year 2017

upturn in pmi manufacturing index coutries usa japan europe chart_year 2017

Är volatiliteten på väg????????

Publicerad 2017-09-20 13:53:22 i Ekonomi,

The CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index, or VXV, is trading close to its highest in five years versus its 30-day counterpart, known as the VIX - the ultra-popular and widely followed instrument frequently referred to as the equity market "fear gauge."

In other words, traders are bracing for equity turbulence sometime in one to three months but no earlier.

And wouldn't you know it: The three-month horizon perfectly captures both third-quarter earnings season and, perhaps most crucially, the government's debt-ceiling deadline. Both events carry considerable event risk that could inject the market with some long-awaited volatility.9 19 17 vix ratio COTD

Vem köper aktier?????????????????????

Publicerad 2017-09-19 13:10:00 i Ekonomi,

Wall Street does best and makes the most money when stocks are roaring higher. So in order for a major Wall Street firm like Goldman to start openly worrying about whether or not the markets are going to crash, there has to be truly MASSIVE trouble brewing.

On that note, Goldman’s Bear Market indicator just hit levels that triggered JUST BEFORE THE LAST TWO MARKET CRASHES.

GPC918171

 

GPC918172

Vem köper aktier?????????????????????

Publicerad 2017-09-19 11:59:02 i Ekonomi,

This chart shows the close relationship between valuations and subsequent 12-year market returns going back to the 1920’s, though with a slightly less reliable measure (for additional charts and detail, including a discussion of the role of interest rates, see Valuations, Sufficient Statistics and Breathtaking Risks and The Conceit of Central Bankers and the Brief Illusion of Wealth). Compare the present extreme with all of market history. Aside from the 2007 and 2000 peaks in valuation (and troughs in prospective market returns), only one other similar point emerges, which corresponds to the 1929 market high.

Deutsche Bank anser att finansiella marknaderna är just nu högst värderad under de senaste ca 200 åren

Publicerad 2017-09-18 14:27:00 i Ekonomi,

Deutsche Bank: "Global Asset Prices Are The Most Elevated In History"

Figure 57 updates our analysis looking at an equal weighted index of 15 DM government bond and 15 DM equity markets back to 1800. For bonds we simply look at where nominal yields are relative to history and arrange the data in percentiles. So a 100% reading would mean a bond market was at its lowest yield ever and 0% the highest it had ever been. For equities valuations are more challenging to calculate, especially back as far as we want to go. In the 2015 study (‘Scaling the Peaks’) we set out our current methodology but in short we create a long-term proxy for P/E ratios by looking at P/Nominal GDP and then look at the results relative to the long-term trend and again order in percentiles. Nominal GDP data extends back much further through history than earnings data. When we have tracked the two series where the data overlaps we have found it to be an excellent proxy. Not all the data in Figure 57 starts at 1800 but we have substantial history for most of the countries (especially for bonds).

 

 

 

 
 

USA hotar Kina om de inte följer FNs sanktioner mot Nord Korea vilket höjer tempraturen betydligt mellan dessa giganter

Publicerad 2017-09-14 11:11:30 i Ekonomi,

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Tuesday that if China doesn’t follow the United Nations sanctions approved on North Korea, he will seek new financial sanctions on Beijing to cut off access to the U.S. financial system.

Mnuchin told a conference broadcast on CNBC that China agreed to “historic” sanctions on North Korea on Monday in a UN Security Council vote.

“If China doesn’t follow these sanctions, we will put additional sanctions on them and prevent them from accessing the U.S. and international dollar system, and that’s quite meaningful,” Mnuchin said.

Photo published for Treasury's Mnuchin: China may face new sanctions on North Korea

S&P 500 trotsar sämre ekonomisk data

Publicerad 2017-09-12 10:30:00 i Ekonomi,

The Economic Noise Index is designed to gauge background economic noise and expresses as either more positive noise or more negative noise.  It incorporates 2 components: the Citi Economic Surprise Indexes, and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes.

Basically a higher reading for this index indicates more positive noise: i.e. economic data is generally beating expectations and surprising to the upside, and economic policy uncertainty is generally lower than usual.

Lately economic data has been missing against arguably over-optimistic expectations and policy uncertainty has been elevated in the Trump era and as the Fed moves towards monetary policy normalization.  Clearly the worse these factors become and the more persistent they stay bad the greater the likelihood is of a market accident, for example the almost mythical 5% correction.

us economic noise index vs sp 500 index_economy_stocks_year 2017

Dags för ett nytt monetärt system och revalvering för guldpriset

Publicerad 2017-09-12 09:41:25 i Ekonomi,

Below, is a chart (from macrotrends.com) that shows the ratio of the gold price to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base back to 1918. That is the gold price in US dollars divided by the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base in billions of US dollars. So, for example, currently the ratio is at 0.34 [$1 346 (current gold price)/ $3 942 (which represents 3 942 billions of US dollars)].
gold-to-monetary-base-ratio-2017-09-10-macrotrends

Finns inga fria marknader

Publicerad 2017-09-11 11:18:00 i Ekonomi,

So far in 2017 there has been $1.96 trillion of central bank purchases of financial assets in 2017 alone, as central bank balance sheets have grown by $11.26 trillion since Lehman to $15.6 trillion.
 

September handel på börserna i USA

Publicerad 2017-09-08 11:55:47 i Ekonomi,

Over the last 21 years the market’s performance in September has been turbulent. DJIA recorded back-to-back losses in 2001 and 2002 of 11.1% and 12.4% respectively, but DJIA was up 7.7% in 2010. Average losses range from 0.06% by NASDAQ to a 0.69% decline by DJIA. Based upon the above chart September typically begins well and all five indexes generally trade choppily higher until around the 15th trading day of the month. From this point until the month closes, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 give back any early-month gains and drift into the red.

Katalanska parlamentet röstade för en folkomröstning den 1 oktober när det gäller Kataloniens självständighet.

Publicerad 2017-09-07 16:04:14 i Ekonomi,

Catalan regional president, Carles Puigdemont (fourth from left) applauds with MPs after a referendum law was approved by the Catalonian parliament.
 

On Wednesday night, the region’s ruling, pro-sovereignty coalition – which has a majority in the Catalan parliament – managed to get the referendum law passed despite angry objections from opposition MPs, who complained that usual parliamentary procedures had been disregarded.

The legislation passed by 72 votes after 52 opposition MPs walked out of the chamber in Barcelona in protest at the end of an ill-tempered, 11-hour session.

The move was denounced by the Spanish government, which once again said it would do everything in its legal and political power to stop the vote from going ahead on 1 October.

The Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, ordered government lawyers to file a complaint with the country’s constitutional court so that the vote could be annulled. 

 

Stor potential i guldet om CB slutar att hålla priset tillbaka

Publicerad 2017-09-07 10:57:47 i Ekonomi,

King World News note:  The chart below reveals just how far the bull market in gold has to run before it ends in exhaustion.  Gold would have to advance 14.5-times in price vs the monetary base in order to hit the 4.8 level highlighted above.  If the monetary base just stayed stagnant and the 4.8 ratio is hit, that means the gold price will be nearly $20,000.

Gold To Monetary Base Ratio

kwn-macrotrends-i-962017

kwn-macrotrends-ii-962017

Kina skakar om crypto världen

Publicerad 2017-09-04 14:10:27 i Ekonomi,

Ethereum and bitcoin are crashing this morning, after China confirmed its recent threat of an ICO crackdown (reported here last Monday) when the central bank said on Monday that initial coin offerings are illegal and disrupt financial markets, according to statement on China’s central bank websiteThe PBOC also asked all related fundraising activity to be halted immediately, issuing the strongest regulatory challenge so far to the burgeoning market for digital token sales.

S&P 500

Publicerad 2017-09-01 11:42:34 i Ekonomi,

Index is less than 1% from a new closing high but just 42% of SPX components trade above their 50-dmas:

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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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