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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Det är inte mycket som gått rätt för FEDs monetära politik sedan finans krisen

Publicerad 2018-04-19 10:35:57 i Ekonomi,

The Federal Reserve has been determined to create “Wealth Effects” throughout the economy since 2008, which has left the majority of Main Street on the sidelines.

The Fed’s objective was to make American households feel wealthier by pushing up the valuations of stocks and bonds. However, this paper wealth mentality has worked beautifully for Wall Street and the 1% but has destroyed much of the middle class as wealth inequality continues to skyrocket.

In fact, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has gone on record to warn of a massive bond and stock bubble thanks to historic low-interest rates. I guess, the idea of rising paper wealth to drive a wave of renewed borrowing and spending hasn’t quite worked out as planned.

 

Vad händer med högre räntor????????????????

Publicerad 2018-04-13 10:38:33 i Ekonomi,

It shows the percent of companies in the S&P 500 that would fall into Minsky’s “Ponzi unit” category. Specifically, Bianco Research defines these “zombies” as companies whose interest expense is greater than their 3-year average EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes). Currently, we face the greatest percentage of “Ponzi units” in at least 20 years.

Det går fort i hockey vilket Ryssland just nu känner av

Publicerad 2018-04-12 12:13:00 i Ekonomi,

Russia's 5Y CDS exploded by the most since June 2013 (a 34% spike in default risk in 3 days) this week as US sanctions and now direct threats have escalated geopolitical tensions globally.

As Bloomberg notes, President Donald Trump’s warning for Russia to “get ready” for missiles on Syria sent investors rushing for protection.

The cost of insuring sovereign debt against default for five years using credit-default swaps jumped to 162 on Wednesday, the highest since Aug. 1.

Silver

Publicerad 2018-04-12 11:12:09 i Ekonomi,

Based on the futures positioning right now, the setup is for an explosive move higher. The smart money has never been this bullish of Silver. For a community of investors who live their lives short, in order to hedge, they are actually almost net long right now:

Marknaderna oroar sig för missiler från Trump rakt in i Syrien

Publicerad 2018-04-11 15:08:10 i Ekonomi,

                       
h_marketupdate.gif

Trump Tweets Russia "Get Ready" For Missiles In Syria - Gold, Oil Rise and Stocks Fall

- Dow set to drop 300 points at open after Trump tweet today
- Stocks see sell off and gold pops to test resistance at $1,350/oz
- US stock futures suggest over 1% losses at New York open
- Oil surged to a two-week high and has surged nearly 7% this week
- U.S. bombing Syria may provoke escalation of conflict with Russia and wider conflict in volatile Middle East

DiMartino Booth syn på FEDs tankar om inflationen

Publicerad 2018-04-09 16:47:14 i Ekonomi,

It is imperative that Powell get his Committee on board with recognizing that inflation is an immediate threat before it’s too late, which is not yet the case. Focus in on the blue line which is barely above the Fed’s 2% target.

That represents nondiscretionary inflation – the prices of what you have to buy to put food on the table, stay healthy and keep the roof over your head. The green line is inflation for what you want – another pair of red-soled shoes, a bigger curved-screen TV, tickets to the Final Four – you know, discretionary spending.

In recessionary times, the prices for what you need completely disconnect from the prices of what you want – that’s why they are miserable times for the economy.

It’s no secret that home prices are choking off buyers though rising mortgage rates are doing a bang-up job of getting the hesitant to rush to buy. Applications to buy a home are at a seven-year high even as home prices are up 5.9%, triple the rate of inflation. That helps explain why first-time homebuyers made up all of 29% of buyers in February, a level disturbingly close to the cycle’s 26% record low.

Danielle’s concusion: “If the sensible man in Powell has no wish to ever allow interest rates to fall to the zero bound on his watch, he might want to get the fed funds rate above 2% before the economy hits recession.”

Her conclusion that the Fed will be out of bullets at the next recession makes sense to me. The last time the Fed was out of bullets was last cycle, after 5 1/2% of cuts. It did three rounds of QE and one Operation Twist.

What the Fed does to counteract the next recession is anyone’s guess.

Tyska exporten droppar

Publicerad 2018-04-09 12:12:22 i Ekonomi,

BERLIN (Reuters) - German exports plunged unexpectedly in February, posting their biggest monthly drop in 2-1/2 years and narrowing the trade surplus, data showed on Monday, in a further sign that growth in Europe’s biggest economy could have reached its peak.

Bildresultat för german flag

 

Seasonally adjusted exports fell by 3.2 percent on the month, the steepest decline since August 2015, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed. Imports dropped by 1.3 percent.

A Reuters poll had pointed to exports edging up by 0.2 percent on the month and imports rising by 0.3 percent.

“As it looks, we have surpassed the top of the economic upswing,” HSBC Trinkhaus analyst Lothar Hessler said, adding that the stronger euro was probably to blame for the weak export figures.

“The German economy will continue to grow, but with less momentum,” Hessler said.

 

 

Vem skall finansiera USAs allt större budgetunderskott??????????

Publicerad 2018-04-09 12:02:00 i Ekonomi,

Japanese investors dump record amount of U.S. bonds in February

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese investors sold a record amount of U.S. dollar bonds in February as the soaring cost of currency-hedging undercut yields while they extended their purchases of euro-denominated bonds, government data showed on Monday.

Investors sold 3.924 trillion yen ($36.68 billion) of U.S. dollar bonds in February but scooped up 1.059 trillion yen (8.06 billion euros) of euro-denominated bonds - which offer higher yields after currency hedging.

It was their fifth consecutive month of euro-denominated debt purchases.

Since October, investors offloaded 7.675 trillion yen ($71.72 billion) of dollar bonds and bought 4.079 trillion yen (31.06 billion euros) of euro bonds.

 

 

 

Handelsbalansen för USA visar högre underskott än väntat vilket ökar risken för tullar och andra pålagor

Publicerad 2018-04-05 14:55:00 i Ekonomi,

With so much attention focused on trade data in recent weeks, Trump will hardly be happy to learn that not only did the US trade deficit grow by 1.6% in February from $56.7BN to $57.6BN, missing expectations of a $56.8BN print, but was the highest monthly trade deficit going back ten years to 2008.

 

Finally, if you want to get Trump really mad, tell him that when stripping away petroleum products - which recently saw record US exports thanks to shale - the US trade deficit has never been greater.

Lyssna om ekonomin

Publicerad 2018-04-04 13:22:39 i Ekonomi,

Are YOU Ready for the Economic Collapse? Video – Blackstone Intelligence Network

Financial storm clouds are on the horizon. Are YOU ready? In this episode, I teach some basic terminology and how to better understand financial reports that you hear on the news.

När får vi höra ordet recession

Publicerad 2018-04-04 13:13:47 i Ekonomi,

M2 money stock is comprised of business and consumer liquid cash accounts. Savings, checking, money market. They are the accounts, if you’re not spending with debt, you first tap to spend or invest.

This indicator is commonly known as a ‘one-year-out’ recession warning when its growth level falls below 2%. Which it just did, after being over 6% as recently as 2016.

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Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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