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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Nordea om ekonomin och den övervärderade börsen

Publicerad 2018-08-31 10:55:11 i Ekonomi,

Risky assets have recently been helped by the US macro situation continuing to improve and a very strong Q2 reporting season. However, behind the surface there has been some interesting developments that might indicate that investors are becoming slightly more risk averse. The rest of the world has fared worse than the US, with the MSCI World excluding the US actually falling slightly since the first issue of Nordea View in mid-May. Also, during 2018 credit spreads have widened and emerging markets underperformed, and over summer defensives have outperformed cyclicals, low-risk stocks strongly outperformed riskier ones and small caps lost out to large caps.

The most crucial macro development for risky assets during the coming months will, in our view, be if US leading indicators, such as ISM, starts falling or not. We believe they will fall and drag stock markets down in the process.

We stick to our negative stance towards risky assets, due to the global manufacturing slowdown that is already upon us, our expectation that leading US indicators should drop, and the worsening central bank liquidity conditions. In light of this and rising wage pressure, we find profit margin expectations for 2019 too high. 

Chart1. Valuations are stretched

 

Chart 2. ISM should drop the coming six months

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

USD mot vissa valutor, notera vilka som är runt Sverige

Publicerad 2018-08-30 11:59:13 i Ekonomi,

Currency against US Dollar, past year.
Nigeria: -0.1%
UK: -0.3%
Japan: -0.9%
Euro: -1.8%
Canada: -2.5%
China: -3.5%
Australia: -7.6%
Mexico: -8%
South Africa: -10%
India: -10%
Indonesia: -10%
Sweden: -15%
Pakistan: -16%
Russia: -16%
Brazil: -31%
Argentina: -80%
Turkey: -86%

Finns väl ingen som handlar på värdering

Publicerad 2018-08-27 17:44:33 i Ekonomi,

The S&P 500 Median Price To Free Cash Flow Ratio Is Now 34.66

The S&P 500 median Price to Free Cash Flow ratio is now 34.66.

Investors buying US stocks at current prices are valuing the typical large-cap company at almost 35 years worth of free cash flow - from now until the year 2053.

Many savvy and experienced investors consider the Price to Free Cash Flow metric to be a superior equivalent of the Price to Earnings ratio.

By this measure, we may be a lot closer to year 2000 style bubble valuation levels than most people in the market believe.

Essentially, the entire stock market is being valued as if they are all booming growth stocks.

 

 

Det är upplagt för ett högre guldpris under hösten

Publicerad 2018-08-23 13:50:00 i Ekonomi,

In gold we can see that speculators registered an extreme position in gold on July 20th and as of last week they became net short of gold for the first time this cycle, and indeed for the first time since 2001. Previous episodes of extreme gold positioning (which for speculators was actually just a very small long position) resulted in sharp price increase, averaging 10.6% over the next three months and 16.2% over the next year, as the first table below shows. What is interesting is that speculative positioning in gold right now is even more extreme than it was in late 2015, which resulted in a 21.6% jump in the price of gold over the next year. Though to be fair, the move didn’t begin in earnest until six months after the extreme in positioning was first registered.
 
 

Småbankerna börjar ta smällar på kreditkorten

Publicerad 2018-08-23 13:28:54 i Ekonomi,

The delinquency rate on credit-card loan balances at commercial banks other than the largest 100 – so at the nearly 5,000 smaller banks in the US – rose to 6.2% in the second quarter. This exceeds the peak during the Financial Crisis by a full percentage point and was up from 4.0% a year ago.

But for the largest 100 banks – which carry the majority of the credit-card loan balances – the delinquency rate was 2.4% (seasonally adjusted), the Federal Reserve Board of Governors reported Tuesday afternoon. So what is going on here?

Aktier kom och köp, fåtal aktier kvar, billigt kom och köp

Publicerad 2018-08-22 14:54:00 i Ekonomi,

The “Sound Advice Risk Indicator” is a different story. This indicator, the brainchild of Gray Cardiff, editor of the Sound Advice newsletter, is derived from the ratio of the S&P 500 SPX, +0.21% to the median price of a new U.S. house. For the first time since the late 1990s, and for only the sixth time since 1895, this indicator has risen above the 2.0 level that represents a major sell signal for equities. (See accompanying chart.)

Vad vet Insider bankerna om utvecklingen för börsen, guld, räntor och dollar

Publicerad 2018-08-22 14:50:47 i Ekonomi,

This chart from Meridian Macro Research shows the combined short positions of Speculators in Comex gold, 10-year U.S. treasury bonds and the stock market volatility index called the VIX. To be short any of these three would indicate that the Speculators expect:

• falling gold prices

• rising interest rates

• quiet volatility and, by extension, rising equity prices.

 

Check, too, this chart of positioning in the Dollar Index. Note that the Speculators are once again building a massive long position while The Commercials are moving short:

 

 

 

 

Det går fort i hockey

Publicerad 2018-08-14 15:20:15 i Ekonomi,

If you have been paying attention to the financial news lately then you know that Turkey is now in a full-blown economic crisis.  The crisis really has been going on for months, but now it has reached a tipping point as the Lira has collapsed. Take a look at this chart of the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NYSEARCA: TUR):

Guld i Turkiska Lira

Publicerad 2018-08-14 12:35:04 i Ekonomi,

The reality is that asset prices are always, in the final analysis, driven by fundamental factors. Undervalued assets eventually go up in price, and overvalued assets eventually go down in price. The Venezuelan bolivar was overvalued and crashed, just like is now happening to the Turkish lira. Look at this chart of gold priced in liras.

Gold Skyrocketing In Price In Turkish Lira

Monetära basen krymper

Publicerad 2018-08-13 11:23:11 i Ekonomi,

"As the chart above shows, it is contracting now. So, based on the experience of the past 45 years, it seems likely that the world is entering its seventh international dollar liquidity crisis since 1973," h/t Charles Gave

 

COT rapporten för guld börjar nu visa på mycket stora chanser för ett riktigt lyft när det gäller priset

Publicerad 2018-08-13 10:20:35 i Ekonomi,

They’re now about as close to neutral as they’ve ever been. Based on the history of the past decade this is hugely bullish, since speculators tend to be wrong when they’re fully convinced they’re right.

Gold COT silver is better than gold

For the commercials – the banks and fabricators who take the other side of speculators’ positions — it’s a mirror image: They’ve been getting less and less short for several months and in the past week took a giant step towards neutral, something that is also historically very bullish.

 

P/S för S&P 500

Publicerad 2018-08-09 16:13:45 i Ekonomi,

Yet some things never change and Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group, has been on a mini-campaign highlighting the parallels between 2000 and 2018.

Among the numerous similarities is the elevated valuation of the S&P 500 then and now, which Ramsey illustrates in a chart that he has dubbed as the “scariest chart in our database.”

 
He also shared a chart which he claims is “unfit for a family-friendly publication” that shows how in terms of median price to sales ratio, the S&P 500 is twice as expensive as it was in 2000.
“Overvaluation in 2000 was highly concentrated; today it is pervasive, with the median S&P 500 Price/Sales ratio of 2.63 times more than double the 1.23 times prevailing in February 2000.

 

Hur skall detta sluta

Publicerad 2018-08-02 11:11:44 i Ekonomi,

"Where does the Buffett Indicator stand now? It may surprise you to learn that, at nearly 149%, the total market cap to GDP ratio has never been higher. It's even higher than the 145% peak we saw during the dot-com bubble."

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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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