Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Upplagt för silver

Publicerad 2018-02-28 14:19:28 i Ekonomi,

As Bloomberg points out, hedge funds and other large speculators cut their long position in silver futures and options for a sixth straight week in the longest string of declines since August 2014.

Notably, the net speculative positioning across silver futures and options is near its lowest level in 20 years...

All of which might be useful timing as Silver is back at a historically important level of cheapness relative to Gold...

Vi närmar oss

Publicerad 2018-02-28 12:31:00 i Ekonomi,

“In the past six decades, the average length of time from the first tightening to the end of the business cycle is 44 months; the median is 35 months; and the lag from the initial rate hike to the end of the bull equity market is 38 months for the average, 40 months for the media.” – David Rosenberg

Systemet behöver högre tillväxt av nya pengar för att överleva

Publicerad 2018-02-28 11:53:45 i Ekonomi,

What is of great interest is that the recent deceleration of monetary growth (the second red arrow) almost exactly matches in extent and rapidity the monetary deceleration (the first red arrow) that immediately preceded the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

With equity prices heading back toward historic highs after the January “correction” and housing prices bubbling to an all-time high in major markets, the suppression of the TMS growth rate, if it is sustained for the rest of the year, portends another credit crisis and housing bust, followed by an economic recession for the U.S. economy.


Peshut’s graph indicates the qualitative relationship between TMS growth, credit crisis, and recession has been remarkably clear since 1978. Of course, this empirical relationship should not surprise us, because it is nothing but an illustration of the Austrian theory of the business cycle.


Full fart för den amerikanska ekonomin, eller

Publicerad 2018-02-27 15:27:19 i Ekonomi,

The 0.7% MoM rise in inventories is almost double expectations.

Both imports and exports dropped in January:

  • Exports fell 2.2% in Jan. to $133.922b from $137.004b in the prior month

  • Imports fell 0.5% to $208.317b in Jan. from $209.263b in Dec.

But the overall picture is not pretty...


Publicerad 2018-02-26 10:17:17 i Ekonomi,


The chart above looks at Silver over the past 40-years. It is possible that it is forming a bullish multi-decade “Cup & Handle” pattern.

Silver currently remains inside of a 7-year falling channel, which could be the handle of the long-term bullish pattern. If Silver would breakout at (1), it would send a bullish price message and should attract buyers. The top of the handle pattern comes into play as resistance right now so this is a very important test for Silver! Big test friends to see if its “Hi-Yo Silver” time!

Are commodities in general about to blast off higher? Below looks at the TR commodity index over the past 40-years-


Möjligt med nya nedgångar på börsen

Publicerad 2018-02-22 10:10:31 i Ekonomi,

About 57 percent of investors surveyed by Strategas Research Partners expect the S&P 500 Index to break the intraday low of 2,533 reached on Feb. 9, while the rest say the market has bottomed for the year after a two-week selloff sent the index to its first 10 percent correction since 2016. The poll, conducted Feb. 16, covered roughly 500 institutional investors.

Saxat från King World News

Publicerad 2018-02-21 12:48:30 i Ekonomi,

Daily Chart “Cup & Handle” Will Propel Massive Gold Breakout!
Very Powerful Inverse Head & Should Pattern On Gold!

Gold’s Mega-Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern!

China Attacking Petrodollar…Bad News For US Dollar!


I slutet på mars kommer Kina ställa priser för olja i Yuan vilket är ytterligare en major spik i Petro $ och ett steg närmare Kinas roll som världens härskare

Publicerad 2018-02-19 11:13:39 i Ekonomi,

Following December's final successful test, in a challenge to the world’s dollar-denominated oil benchmarks Brent and West Texas Intermediate, China will list local-currency crude futures in Shanghai on March 26, according to the nation’s securities regulator.

While some details of the contract such as the size (1,000 barrels per lot) and grades have been released, other information like the delivery depots for the crude are yet to be announced.

“The intention is to release more details as the launch date approaches,” Meidan said on Friday. “If the date has been settled, then it is pretty close to a finalized contract, because at this point, both Beijing and the Shanghai Futures Exchange can’t afford for the start-up to go wrong.”


FED verkar göra QE istället för utlovat QT

Publicerad 2018-02-16 17:56:42 i Ekonomi,

The Fed added $11 billion to its SOMA account for the week ending yesterday. It purchased $11 billion in mortgage securities directly from banks. This injects $11 billion into the banking system. Cash is “high powered” money, meaning it can be leveraged 10x (banks need to hold 10% in reserves against “high powered” money. $11 billion is $110 billion of leverage for the banks to use for activities such as propping up the stock market.

Saxat från King World News

Publicerad 2018-02-12 13:58:36 i Ekonomi,

The OFR Stress Index below is a daily market based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables such as yield spreads, valuation and interest rates. The index is now at a similar risk level as before the 2007- 9 financial crisis. 


The Gold / Silver ratio is often a good indicator of the direction of the precious metals. This ratio has now reached the 80 level for the fourth time this century. Every time the ratio has reached this level there has been a sharp reversal. Looking at the chart, a reversal is likely within the next few weeks. That will result in silver taking the lead and moving up fast with gold following at a slower speed. So it is likely that silver will soon start the move to new highs, providing major capital appreciation combined with excellent wealth preservation. But it must be physical silver since there are likely to be major shortages once the move starts. 


Är det dags för Commersial att sälja ned guldet så dom kan täcka sina kortningar

Publicerad 2018-02-08 16:31:22 i Ekonomi,

The First COMEX Gold Spec Wash of 2018 is Underway

Written by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money News


Back on January 18, we wrote a post predicting that another pullback in gold prices was on the horizon. Here's the link:

In that post, we projected this latest price swoon based upon the experience of watching net positions expand and contract on the COMEX. The chart below was drawn up that day, but w've added the most recent peak, which came a week later:

Just as in 2016 and 2017, 2018 began with a 10% rally off of a December FOMC rate hike. And just as in 2016 and 2017, we are now in a period of consolidation:


In 2016, COMEX gold moved sideways to gradually higher from February to June. Last year, the same pattern played out from February to July. Will we see a repeat in 2018? Probably—but not identical. Instead, expect the pullbacks to be shallower and the peaks marginally higher. The dominant chart is still the weekly one with the big smiley face or bowl. Here it is again for your viewing pleasure:


Inflationen på väg tillbaka?????????????

Publicerad 2018-02-08 11:32:00 i Ekonomi,

Stronger wage gains, rising oil prices and expansionary fiscal policy point toward inflation finally making a comeback this year, after its absence in 2017 was described by former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen as puzzling.

By Société Générale’s own proprietary “newsflow” indicator, inflation expectations in the U.S., Europe and Japan were at a 10-year high (see chart below). Its in-house gauge measures the number of articles that highlight price pressures.


Högre inflationsförväntningar leder till högre räntor och möjligen stagflation. Mycket talar för råvaror med AG och AU i spetsen

Publicerad 2018-02-05 11:52:13 i Ekonomi,

– “We have a stock market bubble” warns Greenspan
– “Bond bubble will be the big issue” he tells Bloomberg TV (see video)
– “Fiscally unstable long-term outlook in which inflation will take hold”
– “Ratio of federal debt to GDP which is extraordinarily high” (see chart)
– Higher interest rates, inflation and stagflation coming
– Gold is the “ultimate insurance policy” – Greenspan

Greenspan ser bubblor

Publicerad 2018-02-01 10:33:48 i Ekonomi,

"I think there are two bubbles. We have a stock market bubble and we have a bond market bubble," Greenspan said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. "I think [at] the end of the day the bond market bubble will eventually be the critical issue."

"We are dealing with a fiscally unstable long-term outlook in which inflation will take hold"

He also went on to say that "We are working our way towards stagflation" 

Former Fed Greenspan seemed worried over higher interest rates, huge national debts, and deficits.



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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 30 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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