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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

AU och AG

Publicerad 2018-01-31 17:12:45 i Ekonomi,

5 Major Distinctions Between Gold and Silver

 


Gold 


Silver 

Volatility 

Less volatile than silver. Will fall less than silver in bear markets and rise less than silver in bull markets.

More volatile than gold. Will fall more than gold in bear markets and rise more in bull markets. Selling after big run-ups will be critical to investment success.

Affordability

One ounce costs 70 times more than one ounce of silver (at current prices). Can buy smaller denominations than one ounce but premiums are higher.

More affordable than gold, with similar benefits. Enables seller to meet small financial needs in the future. Cheaper for gift-giving.

Storage

Takes up less space than silver, is cheaper to store, and doesn’t tarnish.

Requires up to 128 times more storage space than gold, is more expensive to store, and will tarnish over time.

Industry

Only 12% of demand, and has little impact on price. A poor economy typically pushes investors into gold.

Comprises 56% of total supply. Health of economy can impact demand. Most industrial silver cannot be recovered.

Stockpiles 

Central banks buy and hold a lot of gold.

Governments have only a very small stockpile of silver.

Det finns inga bubblor bara nya tider

Publicerad 2018-01-30 12:28:00 i Ekonomi,

When compared with disposable personal income, the stock market has never been in the midst of such a valuation bubble. Ever. In fact, it’s not even close.

 

One more look but from a different perspective. Real disposable income on a per capita basis versus the Wilshire. Again, asset prices have de-coupled from incomes. Of course, most of the income gains are due to a tiny fraction and are not representative of the reality of flat to declining real incomes for the vast majority of households.

 

A stock market boom born of government-driven debt stimulus can’t run in the face of directly contradictory fundamental metrics forever. More and more basic data point to an inflection point coming sooner rather than later.

ORIGINAL SOURCE: Gauging Contemporary Bubbles by Chris Hamilton at Economica on 1/26/18

 

 

Hur mycket högre ränta klarar finansiella marknaderna

Publicerad 2018-01-26 11:38:58 i Ekonomi,

Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates sees peril in this: “There is a lot more interest-rate sensitivity in the economy…Like a 1% rise in bond yields will produce the largest bear market in bonds that we have seen since the 1980 to 1981 period.”

A little perspective on just how inconceivable that sort of market seems today:

Börjar vi se slutet på silvrets rekord långa bear market

Publicerad 2018-01-22 13:10:43 i Ekonomi,

If and when Silver breaks above its 2017 highs, we can declare its bear market over (in terms of time). The chart below plots all of the major bear markets in Silver. They all end at the point when Silver begins to make higher highs and rises in an impulsive fashion. Silver’s bear market was the second worst by price and potentially the worst in terms of time.
 

Ser vi just nu en blow-off top för Dow Jones

Publicerad 2018-01-18 16:31:57 i Ekonomi,

The psychology of blowoff tops in asset bubbles is fascinating: let's start with the first requirement of a move qualifying as a blowoff top, which is the vast majority of participants deny the move is a blowoff top.

Exhibit 1: a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ-30):

GLD och SLV

Publicerad 2018-01-18 16:26:39 i Ekonomi,

Gold bugs might just get their opportunity to finally move the needle here soon, however. At least, they have a potential catalyst close at hand, based on the chart of the GLD. How so? The fund is presently testing the Down trendline stemming from its 2011 all-time high. Should the GLD be successful in breaking out above that trendline (presently near ~127), it may open the way for further, perhaps considerable, gains in the near-term.

image

It is a similar chart story with the SLV as it too is testing its own post-2011 Down trendline near 16.25 after bouncing off of its post-2008 Up trendline in December.

image

Stämmer det verkligen att låga räntor innebär extremt höga börsvärderingar?

Publicerad 2018-01-16 16:45:33 i Ekonomi,

To analyze the relative value argument, let’s look at the interaction of interest rates and stock valuations over the broad sweep of time. As shown below, extremely high stock market valuations occurred in 1929, 2000, and recently. But interest rates were extremely low only once (recently) during those three occurrences. If low interest rates coincide with extremely high stock valuations only one time out of three, then it is obvious that low interest rates cannot cause high stock valuations. Yet “low interest rates cause high stock valuations” is one of the certainties of the current mainstream narrative.

Source:  Robert Shiller, multipl.com.  Data through June 2017.

Isolating the times when interest rates were extremely low, that has occurred twice; in the 1940s and again in recent times. But in the 1940s, stock valuations were low. So, the statement that low interest rates cause high stock valuations is supported by a .500 batting average in the historical record, which is the equivalent of a coin-flip.

A better batting average is achieved by the relative value argument that extremely high interest rates coincide with extremely low stock market valuations, which occurred in 1921 and 1981.  Although a sample size of two observations is not enough from which to draw a statistically-significant conclusion, at least the batting average is 1.000.

Summarizing the historical relationship between extremes in stock market valuations with extremes in interest rates:

  • Extremely high interest rates, which have occurred twice, coincided with low stock market valuations. This fact does not prove that high interest rates “cause” low stock valuations. But at least the historical record is consistent with such a statement.
  • Extremely low interest rates, which have occurred twice, have coincided with high stock market valuations only once; today. The historical record (1/2 probability) does not validate the highly-confident mainstream narrative that low interest rates “cause” or extremely high stock market valuations.
  • Extremely high stock valuations have occurred three times. Only once (1/3 probability) did high stock valuations coincide with low interest rates; today.
  • If extremely low interest rates do not cause extremely high stock market valuations, then a rise in rates should not necessarily cause a decline in stocks. That is, the historical record does not support the near-certain mainstream narrative that a rise in rates will torpedo stock prices.
  • To demonstrate the ability of a consensus narrative to overwhelm analysis of historical facts and even current reality, consider that the Fed has hiked short-term interest rates five times since December 2015. Also, long-term rates bottomed in mid-2016 and have moved more than a full percent higher. Yet the S&P 500 index has risen more than 30% since the lows in short-term and long-term rates. 

Intresset för dollar minskar varje dag samtidigt som utbudet ökar konstant

Publicerad 2018-01-16 10:49:57 i Ekonomi,

Another major blow to dollar hegemony as Germany decides to add Chinese RMB to their reserves

As more news comes out of countries both selling U.S. treasuries, and declining to accept new ones, a major European economy has taken a huge step in aiding China to expand the internationalization of their RMB currency.  And this move will act as another straw on the camel’s back for dollar hegemony.
 
 
ProChart
 

Bitcoin bubbla eller?????????????

Publicerad 2018-01-15 12:52:00 i Ekonomi,

TNABC Miami Event Stops Accepting Bitcoin Due to Fees and Congestion
Next week the popular cryptocurrency event, The North American Bitcoin Conference (TNABC) will be hosted in downtown Miami at the James L Knight Center, January 18-19. However, bitcoin proponents got some unfortunate news this week as the event organizers have announced they have stopped accepting bitcoin payments for conference tickets due to network fees and congestion.

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Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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