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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

USA håller MSCI världs indexet under armarna

Publicerad 2018-09-24 10:15:18 i Ekonomi,

US dominating the MSCI World right now. The chart shows the contribution to the index by country. As of yesterday afternoon, the MSCI World was up 4.8%, and the US was responsible for 570bps. If it weren’t for the US, the MSCI World would be down 0.9%!

Fler CB köper guld i stället för att hålla papperspengar

Publicerad 2018-09-21 11:20:21 i Ekonomi,

Central banks’ demand for gold reached a three year high, rising 8% during the first half of 2018 compared to the same period last year, according to a World Gold Council market update on central bank buying activity released today.

Data reveals that 2018 H1 marks the strongest year for central bank gold buying since 2015 ­– a total of 193.3 tonnes of gold have been added to central bank reserves so far, compared to 178.6 tonnes during the same period in 2017.

An IMF Financial Statistics Report reveals that Egypt recently bought gold for the first time since 1978, and that India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines have re-entered the gold market after years-long absences. Egypt recently bought gold for the first time since 1978, and that India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines have re-entered the gold market after years-long absences And Bloomberg reported that the Bank of Mongolia has purchased 12.2 tonnes of gold so far this year.

The World Gold Council believes that many emerging market central banks are turning their attention to gold as after years of exposure to the U.S. dollar, and as a natural currency hedge against other reserve currencies.

"Other reserve currencies continue to deal with significant issues: the euro faces both political and economic challenges across several member states, the renminbi remains relatively restricted and sterling continues to grapple with Brexit uncertainty," the World Gold Council writes.

 

 

Silver

Publicerad 2018-09-20 10:51:00 i Ekonomi,

Noncommercial silver traders are those that, for the most part, speculate on the short-term price of silver. Check out how extreme their current short position is:

The GSR just hit 85…its highest level in 27 years. Silver is “once-in-a-generation” undervalued according to this reliable metric:

 

Globala tillväxten förväntas avta

Publicerad 2018-09-20 09:55:29 i Ekonomi,

The net percentage of fund managers expecting improvement in global real growth in the next 12 months is the weakest since late 2011/early 2012 when it briefly fell because of the sovereign debt crisis centered in Europe.

Fåtal aktier drar S&P 500

Publicerad 2018-09-20 09:50:00 i Ekonomi,

This chart shows what the U.S. rally looks like since the February low looks like. The only times US stocks made new ATH with such poor breadth were in 1999, 2000, and 2007.

S&P 500

Publicerad 2018-09-19 13:05:12 i Ekonomi,

The S&P 500 Index is on the verge of setting a new high for overvaluation. Its trailing 12-month price-to-sales ratio surged to 2.25 on Monday, the highest since the dot-com era. If you think it’s just the tech giants skewing the number, think again: The median PSR for index members is more than twice the level of the late 1990s.

spxsaleas

Silver

Publicerad 2018-09-19 09:55:35 i Ekonomi,

With the U.S. dollar head-faking to the upside and ready to run out of gas and thedevastating impact of hyperinflation a sure bet, Future Money Trends sees silver as over-correcting and poised to explode to the upside. And make no mistake - silver is, indeed, over-correcting:

Silver has been around for thousands of years as an investible commodity, and it's not going anywhere. Pull back the chart and you'll see that we've seen silver at this price point before:

 
Notice what happened the last time we were at this level in late 2015: the price shot up like a rocket, easily eclipsing $20 per ounce. If that doesn't sound impressive at its face, consider the fact that a move from $14 to $20 represents an increase of 43%.
 
We're at that $14 level again, and there's no reason why silver shouldn't reclaim $20 at the very least. We've seen it higher than that - a lot higher, actually:

Nästa recession????????????????????

Publicerad 2018-09-14 10:38:00 i Ekonomi,

The financial markets have completely disconnected from reality, and the process of reconnection will unravel all the imbalances and extremes and deflate every interconnected bubble.

Over the course of the past decade, the global economy has recovered from the 2008 financial crisis by riding a wave of debt and liquidity injections from the major central banks. Yet in the absence of steady wage growth and productive investments in the real economy, the only direction left to go is down.

 

 

 

Det gör ont när bubblor spricker

Publicerad 2018-09-10 17:00:32 i Ekonomi,

The recent borrowing boom caused total outstanding U.S. corporate debt to rise to over 45% of GDP, which is even worse than the level reached during the past several credit cycles.
Corporate Debt vs. GDP
 

U.S. corporations have been using much of their borrowed capital to buy back their own stock, increase dividends, and fund mergers and acquisitions - activities that are known for boosting stock prices and executive bonuses. Unfortunately, U.S. corporations have been focusing on these activities that reward shareholders in the short-term, while neglecting longer-term business investments - hubristic behavior that is typical during a bubble. The chart below shows how share buybacks and dividends paid increased dramatically since 2009:

Stock Buybacks

During the dot-com bubble and housing bubble stock market cycles, margin debt peaked at roughly 2.75% of GDP. In the current stock market bubble, however, margin debt is nearly at 3% of GDP, which is quite concerning. The heavy use of margin at the end of a long bull market exacerbates the eventual downturn because traders are forced to sell their shares to avoid or satisfy margin calls.

 SP500 vs. Margin Debt As % of GDP
Warren Buffett’s "favorite indicator" - the U.S. stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio (the total value of the U.S. stock market divided by the GDP) - also confirms that the stock market is overvalued relative to the actual economy and is at an even more extreme level than it was during the dot-com bubble. Buffett claimed that this indicator is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment."
Market Cap-to-GDP Ratio

The Fed Funds Rate chart below shows how the last two recessions and bubble bursts occurred after rate hike cycles; a repeat performance is likely once rates are hiked high enough. Because of the record debt burden in the U.S., interest rates do not have to rise nearly as high as in prior cycles to cause a recession or financial crisis this time around. In addition to raising interest rates, the Fed is now conducting its quantitative tightening (QT) policy that shrinks its balance sheet by $40 billion per month, which will eventually contribute to the popping of the stock market bubble.

Fed Funds Rate
 
 
 
 

Det är bra fallhöjd till den riktigt långa reala trend linjen

Publicerad 2018-09-06 14:04:00 i Ekonomi,

Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. We're using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change regardless of the index price range. The regression trendline drawn through the data clarifies the secular pattern of variance from the trend — those multi-year periods when the market trades above and below trend. That regression slope, incidentally, represents an annualized growth rate of 1.83%.

Regression to Trend

 

 

 

Lyssna på Max Keiser

Publicerad 2018-09-05 11:16:48 i Ekonomi,

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max and Stacy discuss the update to the financial repression index and how ‘quantitative easing’ shifted wealth to stockholders from depositors and bondholders. They also discuss the Irish state buying back properties at market prices from vulture funds that they had sold to US private equity firms only a few years ago at pennies on the dollar. In the second half, Max continues his interview with Alasdair Macleod of Goldmoney.comabout the post-USD world: will it happen? Can it happen? What would it look like if it did happen?

Det kommer bli en redig smäll vid nästa recession

Publicerad 2018-09-03 17:05:06 i Ekonomi,

The chart below compares U.S. household wealth (blue line) to the underlying economy or GDP (orange line). In sustainable, organic wealth booms, household wealth tracks GDP very closely. Starting in the late-1990s, however, household wealth decoupled from the GDP as the tech stock bubble helped to inflate American portfolios until it came crashing down in the early-2000s. In the mid-2000s, the U.S. housing bubble boosted household wealth until the 2008 housing crash. Now, here we are in 2018, and the gap between household wealth and the underlying economy has never been larger. This unprecedented gap means that the coming reversion or bust is going to be even worse than the last two, unfortunately.
U.S. Household Net Worth vs. GDP

Lyssna på Max Keiser

Publicerad 2018-09-03 10:08:21 i Ekonomi,

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max and Stacy discuss the legacy of John McCain: from the Keating Five to what CNBC calls the ‘anti-dollar awakening.’ In the second half, Max interviews Alasdair Macleod of Goldmoney.com about the move away from the US dollar as the rails upon which global trade rides to a more impartial, less capricious unit of account such as gold.

Galen marknad

Publicerad 2018-09-03 10:03:00 i Ekonomi,

$AAPL $AMZN $MSFT all of which are historically vastly overextended with nearly $3 trillion in market cap
 

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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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