The New Economy Index (NEI) är helt klart på väg ned vilket innebär att FED gör åtstramningar i en vikande ekonomi.
The New Economy Index (NEI) is on the brink of sending its first confirmed sell signal in four years.
The index is a blend of the leading U.S. retail and business service stocks. NEI is based on the concept that these component stocks are accurate reflections of changes within the real-time U.S. economy (as opposed to the lagging economic statistics favored by the Labor Bureau).
Except for a brief period in the spring of 2010, NEI has confirmed a firming economic picture for U.S. retailers since 2009. As you can see in the following graph, though, the index has made a series of lower highs and lows the first in well over two years. Moreover, the important 12-week moving average (red line) has crossed below the 20-week MA (black line) and both moving averages are in the process of decisively turning down.