Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

25 år sedan toppen för japanska aktiemarknaden är det detta vi har och vänta oss här i Europa

Publicerad 2014-12-30 10:55:16 i Ekonomi,

The Japanese stock market reached its all-time-high on December 29th 1998, and as The Wall Street Journal reports, analysts were still looking forward to another strong year for shares in 1990, despite some signs of danger. Reading through the headline on that day suggests, 25 years later, investors and talking-heads have learned absolutely nothing...


Hur länge till kan marknaden negligera ekonomiska fundamenta??????

Publicerad 2014-12-30 10:50:04 i Ekonomi,

World GDP Growth Expectations for 2015 just dropped dramatically to their lowest since expectations began to be tracked. From 3.40% in early 2013, the consensus is expectating world economic growth at a mere 2.72% (a 20% decline in growth expectations). Of course, there is one thing that is not going down...

Maybe bonds and crude oil are on to something after all?



Varför får Holland tillbaka sitt guld från FED medans Tyskland bara erhållit 5 ton av sina begärda ca 300 ton. Som vanligt när det gäller guld så är det inget som stämmer.

Publicerad 2014-12-30 10:43:37 i Ekonomi,

Net of the Netherlands withdrawals, there is some 44 tons of extra gold that has been also quietly redeemed (by another entity). The question is who: is it now the turn of Austria to reveal in a few weeks that it too, secretly, withdrew some 40+ tons of gold from "safe keeping" in the US? Or was it Belgium? Or did the Dutch simply decide to haul back some more. Or did Germany finally get over its "logistical complications" which prevented it from transporting more than just a laughable 5 tons in 2013? And most importantly, did Germany finally grow a pair and decide not to let "diplomatic difficulties" stand between it and its gold?

Stora nedrevideringar av vinsterna och omsättningen för 2015

Publicerad 2014-12-29 10:27:10 i Ekonomi,

Less than three months ago, on September 30, 2014, "consensus" expected that EPS and revenue growth in 2015 would be 11.8% and 4.3%, respectively. As of December 19, those projected growth rates have plunged to 7.9% and 2.8%. In other words, both revenue and EPS growth has been slashed by one third in under one quarter (while revenue growth for Q1 and Q2 2015 has cratered from 4.5% and 3.6% to 1.4% and 1.0%, respectively). Why? Spotting the "odd one out" in the charts below should provide the answer:

Indien rekord köper silver

Publicerad 2014-12-23 10:16:00 i Ekonomi,

Indian Silver Imports 2007-2014 UPDATE
Quarterly Indian Silver Imports 2014

Just to give the reader a sense of how much silver India imported, lets compare it to total global silver mine supply:

2014 Estimated Global Silver Mine Supply = 825 Million oz

2014 Estimated Indian Silver Imports = 234 Million oz

India’s estimated 2014 silver imports at 7,400 mt equals 234 million oz (Moz) or 28% of total world mine supply of 825 Moz in 2014 (GFMS estimate with my adjustment).

Ryssland köper mer guld och viktar ned på obligations marknaden

Publicerad 2014-12-22 10:23:00 i Ekonomi,


So we can now add another 600K to Russia's most recent holdings:


Which of course means that the very "Russia is selling" rumors that were so effectively used to keep the price of gold low into the recent risk-flaring episode, were capitalized on by the very same Russia, which we do however know sold some $8 billion [9]in US Treasurys in October bringings its total holdings of US paper to the second lowest since 2008...


Lite om HY marknaden som nu håller på att spricka och därmed dra med sig bankerna

Publicerad 2014-12-19 13:25:00 i Ekonomi,

High-yield bonds are long-term IOUs issued by companies with shaky credit ratings. Just like credit card users, companies with poor credit must pay higher interest rates on loans than those with gold-plated credit histories.

Back in June, the average junk bond yield was 3.90 percentage points higher than Treasury securities. The average energy junk bond yielded 3.91 percentage points higher than Treasuries, Lonski says.

That spread has widened to 5.08 percentage points for junk bonds vs. 7.86 percentage points for energy bonds — an indication of how worried investors are about default, particularly for small, highly indebted companies in the fracking business.

When Josh Birnbaum was at Goldman Sachs in 2007, he made a huge bet against subprime mortgages.

Now he’s betting against something else: high-yield bonds.

From The Wall Street Journal:

Joshua Birnbaum, the ex-Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trader who made bets against subprime mortgages during the financial crisis, now has more than $2 billion in wagers against high-yield bonds at his Tilden Park Capital Management LP hedge-fund firm, according to investor documents.

It’s a mania, said Tim Gramatovich of Peritus Asset Management who oversees a bond portfolio of $800 million: “Anything that becomes a mania — ends badly. And this is a mania.”

Bill Gross, who used to run PIMCO’s gigantic bond portfolio and now advises the Janus Capital Group, explained that “there’s very little liquidity” in junk bonds. This is the language a bond fund manager uses to tell people that no one is buying, everyone is selling. Gross added: “Everyone is trying to squeeze through a very small door.”

Bonds issued by individual energy developers have gotten hammered. For instance, Energy XXI, an oil and gas producer, issued more than $2 billion in bonds just in the last four years and, up until a couple of weeks ago, they were selling at 100 cents on the dollar. On Friday buyers were offering just 64 cents. Midstates Petroleum’s $700 million in bonds — rated “junk” by both Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s — are selling at 54 cents on the dollar, if buyers can be found.

Dominoes - Public Domain


IMF har sin kongress i oktober 2015 då man skall avgöra olika länders valutavikt inom SDR. Kina kommer om inte USA använder sitt veto att ingå och frågan är om Kina kommer att tala om för världen hur mycket guld man har innan mötet.

Publicerad 2014-12-19 12:33:03 i Ekonomi,

The timing of the SDR conference has now been announced, and the meeting looks to be set for October of 2015. Interestingly, this linked article from Bloomberg notes that China has a “real shot” at SDR inclusion and official “reserve status” next year, but warns that the U.S. “may use its veto power” to stop China’s membership. I have to laugh at the absurdity of it all, because there are many people in the world of economic study who still believe the developments of globalization and fiscal distress are all “random.” I suppose that if it is all random, then it is a rather convenient coincidence that the U.S. just happens to be on the verge of losing veto power in the IMF just before they are about to bring the BRICS into the SDR fold and supplant the dollar.

And of course the Chinese have pronounced their fealty to the IMF global currency concept:

The world economic crisis shows the "inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the existing international monetary system," Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said in an essay released Monday by the bank. He recommended creating a currency made up of a basket of global currencies and controlled by the International Monetary Fund and said it would help "to achieve the objective of safeguarding global economic and financial stability."

The BRICS are not the only nations demanding the U.S. lose its supposed "influence" over the IMF.  Germany, the core economic pillar of the EU, called for America to relinquish its veto power back in 2010 just as the reforms measure was announced.



Saxat från Peter Schiffs blogg

Publicerad 2014-12-17 13:01:09 i Ekonomi,

The FED Didn't Solve Any Problems, They Made Things Worse

“Because they did QE 1, 2 and 3 and kept interest rates at zero, the Federal Reserve saved the U.S. economy and they solved all the problems. Because the problems have been solved, we no longer need the Fed and everything is fine.

That is complete fantasy. There is a bigger disconnect now than there was just before the 2008 financial crisis. The truth of the matter is the Federal Reserve didn’t solve any of our problems. They made them all worse.

Indien köper stora mängder guld, 150 ton bara i november. Beakta då att den genomsnittliga årsproduktionen per månad ligger på ca 185 ton och att Kina köper minst lika mycket som Indien.

Publicerad 2014-12-17 12:56:52 i Ekonomi,

Gold Imports ‘Phenomenal’ In India – 571 Percent Surge To 150 Tonnes in November

India’s gold imports were over a staggering 150 tonnes in November and have seen a “phenomenal” rise in India according to India’s Trade Secretary, Rajeev Kher.

A few weeks ago we said that the death of the Indian gold market was greatly exaggerated. The latest gold import data out of India confirms this.


Hindenburg Omen börjar nu likna toppen före förra finans kraschen

Publicerad 2014-12-16 12:25:24 i Ekonomi,

A Hindenburg Omen occurs when the number New Highs and New Lows on the NYSE both exceed a specified percentage of total issues. See this article for more details. There are other requirements, such as that the NYSE Comp be in an uptrend, and the McClellan Oscillator needs to be negative. Those other criteria are important, because there is no sense getting an omen when you are already in a downtrend, or when the market is too strong to be able to go down. This month we have seen the New Lows list expanding, thanks to the poor performance of multiple issues with the words “resources”, “energy”, or “drilling” in the companies’ names.

Är 2015 starten för nästa uppgångsfas för guld och silver

Publicerad 2014-12-16 11:41:00 i Ekonomi,

A Second Secular Gold Bull Market Is Born In Early 2001

The second (i.e. current) secular gold bull market was birthed with the new millennium.  Indeed, investors worldwide stampeded to buy gold as it bottomed at about $256/oz in 2001.  And from 2001 to late 2011, the gold price soared hyperbolically +650%.  But as all secular bull markets occasionally correct (regardless of asset class), gold too has corrected down 39% during the past three years. Consequently, the shiny yellow today is grossly over-sold…taking into account its extremely bullish fundamentals. 

The gold price chart below covers the period from 1960 to 2020 (i.e. 60 years).  It is imperative to notice the Price “Y-Axis” is in Logarithmic Scale…as this study suggests the US$ price of gold can go viral from here to the year 2020.

gold price chart 1960-2020

Kommer ECB sätta igång pengatryckningen i januari för att motverka deflationen

Publicerad 2014-12-15 11:12:42 i Ekonomi,

“Eurozone deflation is now inevitable. There is no way around it,” said Andrew Roberts, at RBS. “We think yields on German 10-year Bunds will fall to 0.42pc next year.”

“The ECB is presiding over a deflationary disaster. They need to act fast and aggressively or else markets will start to attack Italian debt. Italy’s nominal GDP is falling faster than their borrowing costs and that is pushing them towards a debt spiral,” he added.

The Bank of Italy’s governor, Ignazio Visco, said any further falls in prices at this stage could have “extremely grave consequences for economies with very high public debt levels, such as Italy”.


Ukraina sitter i knät på IMF

Publicerad 2014-12-11 12:15:24 i Ekonomi,


Ukraine's new economy minister, Aivaras Abromavicius, said on Wednesday the government wanted the International Monetary Fund to expand its $17 billion bailout package due to Ukraine's worsened economic outlook.


"We want to expand the programme given the difficult situation. Calculations are being made," Abromavicius said at a briefing, adding that it was too early to say how much extra cash would be needed.


The IMF, which is visiting Kiev this week for talks on the bailout programme with the government, warned in September that if Ukraine's conflict with pro-Russian separatists runs into next year, the country may need as much as $19 billion in extra aid.

Företagen måste höja lönerna om vi skall få fart på den rätta inflationen.

Publicerad 2014-12-11 11:44:18 i Ekonomi,

The central banks don't bother to distinguish between "good" and "bad" inflation: any and all inflation is considered not only wonderful but essential to propping up the Ponzi scheme of debt-dependent consumption, a dynamic I described in Central Banks Create Deflation, Not Inflation.
"Good" inflation is wages rising faster than prices. When wages rise faster than consumer prices, households have more money to spend on consumption, and it's progressively easier for them to pay down debt and support additional borrowing.
"Bad" inflation is prices rising while wages stagnate. In "bad" inflation, prices keep rising as central bank money-printing devalues the currency, but wages don't rise along with prices. As a result, wages decline in real terms, i.e. purchasing power.
In Japan, where the central bank and government have struggled for years to generate price inflation as the means to "re-start growth," wages have fallen by 9% in real terms since 1997. (source:Voodoo Abenomics: Japan's Failed Comeback Plan Foreign Affairs)

Deutsche Bank anser att marknaden inte har tagit hänsyn till de negativa konsekvenserna av lägre energie priser

Publicerad 2014-12-10 12:20:00 i Ekonomi,

One of the most interesting disconnects that we are currently witnessing on the valuation landscape is that broad market indexes – in equities and in credit – have largely ignored a bear market that has hit energy assets. S&P500 energy stocks are down 19% since their late June highs, while overall index is 5.8% higher and at its all time highs. In credit, energy bonds have widened by 50bp in IG and 310bp in HY, whereas non-energy bonds are wider by 20bp and 60bp respectively. Taking into account the fact that energy is the single-largest sector in all of HY, second-largest in IG, and third-largest in S&P500 (on a level 2 industry basis), this strikes us as an unusual outcome.


In fact, when we went back in history to confirm our suspicions, we found that it is indeed a rare occurrence. In HY, looking at top-three weight sectors trading 200bp above the rest of HY, the only instances that fit these criteria going back to 2000 are Financials in 2009, Media and Autos in 2008, Autos in 2005 (F/GM downgrades), Telecoms in 2001/2002, and Materials in 2001. This makes Autos in 2005 the mildest instance, where a large sector went into distress and the broad market widened by "only" 130bp. Autos were 10% of the market and peaked out at 630bp, whereas Energy today is 15% and trades at 710.


A similar exercise in equities – top three sectors down 20% or more – yields hits in Financials in 2010 and 2007 and Technology in 2000 – all instances where a distress in one sector pulled the rest of the market lower. The smallest impact was left by Technology in early 2013, where the sector dropped 25% and S&P 500 responded with just a 7% pullback.


These observations form the base underneath our view that something has to give here. Either the market is too negative on Energy, or it is not diligent enough in thinking about broader implications. The only argument that stands against this view is that the rest of the economy is supposed to benefit from lower oil, which as we have shown earlier, has its own limitations.

Or visually:

USAs skuld stiger exponentiellt och betydligt snabbare än lönerna

Publicerad 2014-12-10 12:01:52 i Ekonomi,

Hours for population to pay debt
Every employee in the US would have to work about 4 years at the average hourly wage to pay the national debt.  It gets worse.  The unfunded liabilities of the US government are about 10 times larger (depending on who is counting) and that means every worker would have to labor for 40 years to pay the debt and unfunded liabilities.

Räntan kan bara gå åt ett håll och vad händer då med börsen

Publicerad 2014-12-10 11:52:00 i Ekonomi,

Since then rates have continued to be in a steady decline as real economic strength has remained close to 2% annually, deflationary pressures have risen and monetary velocity has fallen. The chart below is a history of long-term interest rates going back to 1857. The dashed black line is the median interest rate during the entire period.



Är nedstället för oljepriset den Black Swan som man väntat på

Publicerad 2014-12-10 11:49:18 i Ekonomi,

The last time the price of oil declined by more than 40 dollars in less than six months, there was a financial meltdown on Wall Street and we experienced the deepest recession that we have seen since the days of the Great Depression.

And now many fear that this collapse in the price of oil could trigger another financial panic.

According to Citigroup, the energy sector now accounts for 17 percent of the high yield bond market.

J.P. Morgan says that it is actually 18 percent.

Oil - Public Domain

In any event, the reality of the matter is that the health of these “junk bonds” is absolutely critical to our financial system.  And according to Deutsche Bank, if these bonds start defaulting it could “trigger a broader high-yield market default cycle”

Based on recent stress tests of subprime borrowers in the energy sector in the US produced by Deutsche Bank, should the price of US crude fall by a further 20pc to $60 per barrel, it could result in up to a 30pc default rate among B and CCC rated high-yield US borrowers in the industry. West Texas Intermediate crude is currently trading at multi-year lows of around $75 per barrel, down from $107 per barrel in June.

A shock of that magnitude could be sufficient to trigger a broader high-yield market default cycle, if materialized,” warn Deutsche strategists Oleg Melentyev and Daniel Sorid in their report.

If the price of oil stays at this level or continues to go down, it is inevitable that we will start to see some of these junk bonds go bad.

In fact, one Motley Fool article recently stated that one industry analyst believes that up to 40 percent of all energy junk bonds could eventually go into default…

Rekord efterfrågan för silver mynt

Publicerad 2014-12-10 11:37:06 i Ekonomi,

After the U.S. Mint updated its bullion figures on Monday, 2014 Silver Eagle sales reached a new annual record surpassing last years total by nearly 200,000.  Not only was 2014 a banner year for world’s most sought after official coin, the Silver-Gold Eagle ratio also hit a new record high.

The U.S. Mint sold nearly a half million Silver Eagles over the weekend, putting the total for December at 1,317,000.  This strong weekend demand pushed total annual Silver Eagle sales to 42,864,000 over last years previous record of 42,765,000.  Furthermore, there are still a few more weeks remaining in the month.

As we can see from the chart, investors purchased 82 Silver Eagles for every Gold Eagle ounce in 2014.

U.S Gold & Silver Eagle Sales 2007-2014

Förväntningarna på vinsternas utveckling ligger alldeles för högt vilket kommer att straffa sig med ett kraftigt fall på börsen.

Publicerad 2014-12-09 11:40:41 i Ekonomi,

To visualize the current extremes in earnings estimates, we can view the long term cyclicality of earnings. As shown in the next chart, earnings tend to cycle regularly between 6% peak to peak and 5% trough to trough growth in earnings. With 2015 expectations exceeding the current 6% peak to peak growth rate, it is only a question of what will trip up this overly optimistic picture.


Currently, estimates for the end of 2014 have once again began to get knocked down. At the beginning of 2013 it was estimated that 2014 would end at $121.40 versus the June, 2014 estimate of just $114.39. However, just three months later, the 2014 year-end estimate has been reduced to just $110.10. Currently, as of the end of November, that year-end estimate is sitting at $109.67 as economic growth has once again failed to materialize as expected.



Since 2009, the reported earnings per share of corporations has increased by a total of 268%. This is the sharpest post-recession rise in reported EPS in history. The issue is that the sharp increase in earnings did not come from a similar surge in revenue that is reported at the top line of the income statement. Revenue from sales of goods and services has only increased by a marginal 33% during the same period.


Deltidsjobb i USA ger inga husköpare

Publicerad 2014-12-09 11:10:18 i Ekonomi,

Thanksgiving weekend (4 days Thurs – Sun) retail sales – both brick/mortar and online – collapsed 11% vs. 2013.  Experian reported that there was a 27% jump in auto loan delinquencies during the third quarter:  LINK.  There’s still 2.4 million less full-time workers than in November 2007.   There’s 3.1 million more part-time workers.

In fact, it was recently reported that 51% of all workers make less than $20/hour.  But here’s the coup de grace for the demise of the housing market (click to enlarge) – source LINK:


Var det någon som trodde att vi är i en bättre lånevärld i dag jämfört med 2007

Publicerad 2014-12-09 11:00:26 i Ekonomi,


This chart (2014 data through September, annualized) shows how volume of “highly leveraged loans” (those with a spread of 225 basis points above LIBOR), at nearly $600 billion this year, is about 50% higher than it was at the cusp of the Financial Crisis. And the dreaded covenant-lite loans, oh my:


Banks, after originating these leveraged loans and repackaging them, increasingly sell them to nonbank lenders, such as institutional investors, pension funds, insurance companies, finance companies, mutual funds, ETF, etc. This process started long before the Financial Crisis – manifested by the collapse and occasional bailout of nonbanks, such as AIG. This chart (data through June 2014) shows this trend of risk being sloughed off to others:



Belgien vill nu också ha tillbaka sitt guld

Publicerad 2014-12-08 12:08:56 i Ekonomi,

Fresh off the annoucement that the Netherlands had repatriated 122.5 tons of its gold, Dutch gold reseacher Koos Jansen, broke the story that the Belgium Central Bank is considering a similar move to repatriate its gold, serving up this video clip from Belgium TV:
Accoording to the World Gold Council, Belgium has 227.4 tons of gold or approximately 7.3 million ounces (the Netherlands has 612.5 tons or 19.6 million ounces).

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2014-12-05 12:29:43 i Ekonomi,

It turns out the Swiss referendum last weekend which sought to force the Swiss National Bank to maintain 20% gold reserves was a red herring so far as precious metal markets are concerned.

It was fairly obvious before the referendum that no sensible trader would had bought gold in the expectation it would go through, so there would be few short-term sellers afterwards. Equally, it was so obvious to traders the referendum would fail that there may have been some short-sellers, or perhaps deferred buying waiting for the event to pass.

In early Far East trade on Monday the big players took the opportunity to test this by knocking the price to as low as $1142 immediately after the result was declared. This should have taken out all the stops on the way down. Instead it set up precious metals for the sharpest rally seen in years. Gold rose as much as $80 or 7% from that low during Monday’s trading, and silver a remarkable $2.57, or 18%.

The extreme level of short positions held by money managers (mostly hedge funds) on Comex had already reduced slightly, according to the Commitment of Traders Report for the previous Tuesday (25th November). Furthermore, as well as swaps the spectacular reduction in open interest reflects contracts exchanged for physical[i] (EFP). In this context EFP includes deals for forward settlement and no physical needs to be involved, so EFP represents contracts that have simply moved from the regulated Comex[ii] market into the unregulated hinterland.

The following charts for gold and silver respectively show how dramatic the decline in open interest has been.

Gold Open Interest 05122014

Silver Open interest 05122014

As gold recovers, the backwardation in London, represented by the GOFO[iii] rate, has ameliorated to minus 0.17% yesterday, having been minus 0.5825% on Monday, and this is shown in the next chart from the LBMA[iv].

GOFO 05122014

This does not necessarily mean the shortage of physical bullion has been resolved, only that at over $1200, buyers of physical are not chasing prices so hard. This is confirmed by market action with the $1200 level initially acting as a level of supply until Wednesday morning UK time, after which it has become support with the price holding above it. It is also worth noting that the turmoil in markets was a wider phenomenon with the oil price recovering sharply on Monday as Brent rallied from $68 to$73, before drifting off back to $69 yesterday.

In other news, according to a report from Bloomberg, China is considering allowing entities other than licensed banks to import gold, to eliminate the premium in Shanghai over the London spot price. It is more likely that this move would be intended to gain a greater share of global gold flows to satisfy domestic demand. And last week the SGE[v] delivered a further 53.56 tonnes into public hands, a rate which has been constant for the last ten weeks and is more than global mine production ex-China.

Next week


Japan: Economy Watchers Survey, M2 Money Supply.  Eurozone: Sentix Indicator.  UK: CBI Industrial Trends.


UK: Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production.  US: IBD Consumer Optimism


Japan: Consumer Confidence.  UK: Trade Balance.  US: Budget Deficit.


Japan: Key Machinery Orders.  US: Import Prices, Initial Claims, Retail Sales, Business Inventories


Japan: Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production. 
UK: Construction Output. 
Eurozone: Industrial Production. 
US: PPI, University of Michigan Sentiment.


Varför är det bara guldet som man tar ut från ETF fonderna när priset går ned? Silvret behåller det fysiska lagret då priset går ned.

Publicerad 2014-12-04 13:06:20 i Ekonomi,

Here are a couple of charts that I lifted from Nick Laird's website in the wee hours of this morning.  They show the total inventory levels of both GLD and SLV since their respective inceptions, along with their respective prices over the same period.  The differences in inventory levels over time between GLD and SLV is nothing short of astonishing considering the price activity over the same period.

Daniel Stetler författaren till "Debt In The 21st Century" om hur vi befinner oss i världens största Ponzi spel.

Publicerad 2014-12-04 12:06:20 i Ekonomi,


When do you think a new “Minsky moment” can arrive?

The late economist Hyman Minsky defined three ways of borrowing: hedge borrowing where borrowers were able to pay interest and principal out of income, speculative borrowing were the borrower could pay the interest but not the principal and relied on someone paying the same price for the asset like he did and Ponzi borrowing were the borrower could not pay the principal nor the interest and hoped that he be bailed out by the next buyer. We all are in a Ponzi world right now. Hoping to be bailed out by the next person. The problem is that demographics alone have to tell us, that there are fewer people entering the scheme then leaving. More people get out than in. Which means, by definition, that the scheme is at an end. The Minsky moment is the crash. Like all crashs it is easier to explain it afterwards than to time it before. But I think it is obvious that the endgame is near.



Indierna köper rekordmycket silver

Publicerad 2014-12-03 10:59:44 i Ekonomi,

With strong demand in October, Indian imported 5,535 mt of silver year to date, with two months remaining.  If we look at the chart below, India would only need to import 285 mt of silver to surpass 2013’s record:

Indian Silver Imports 2007-2014

Är Shale Oils skenande kostnader tillsammans med lägre oljepris nästa härdsmälta i USAs ekonomi.

Publicerad 2014-12-03 10:52:12 i Ekonomi,

What happens when too much cheap money chases a limited asset? Just like housing, 'cost' of Shale Oil wells have become about the monthly nut, not the all-in as The Fed-fueled pump focuses everyone on the short-term gains (ignorant of long-term pains). As the following chart shows, this credit-fueled exuberance has inflated basic costs for US oil producers dramatically...



...and with their costs of funding exploding higher, the vicious circle of higher costs and lower revenues for these levered firms is spinning faster and faster.

Hur länge till kommer börsen att bli dyrare och dyrare

Publicerad 2014-12-02 12:39:08 i Ekonomi,

What is the bottom line? Well, as of Q3, when adding the consensus number for Q4 EPS, we find that while non-GAAP EPS is set to rise by a healthy 6.6%, real rarnings, as in GAAP EPS, will actually decline by 1.3% in 2014, meaning that for yet another year, the only upside in stocks has been due to - thank you Fed - multiples expansion.

Har NYSE toppat ur för denna gång

Publicerad 2014-12-02 12:31:37 i Ekonomi,

With a market capitalization of around $16 trillion, the NYSE Composite Index is a massively broad equity indicator less affected by the day to day gyrations of AAPL, TSLA, BABA, or NFLX. As NewEdge's Brad Wishak remarks, the world's largest market cap equity index is painting a very different picture than that of the Dow or S&P 500...

Indien tar bort 80:20 regeln vilket kommer att gynna guldpriset

Publicerad 2014-12-02 12:24:37 i Ekonomi,

One draconian measure that the government of India was reluctant to curtail, was the infamous 80:20 rule, which they came up with in their grand wisdom to keep their ballooning account deficit under control. This rule mandated that Jewelers needed to export a set percentage of the gold they imported into the country.

Guldets GOFO rate mest negativ på över 10 år

Publicerad 2014-12-02 10:58:57 i Ekonomi,

Yesterday, when we commented [2]on what was largely a pre-determined outcome of the Swiss gold referendum, we said that there still "is the question of what happens to the tension in the gold swap market: as noted last week, the 1 Month GOFO rate had tumbled to the most negative in over a decade. It was not clear if this collateral gold squeeze was the result of Swiss referendum overhang or due to other reasons. The market's reaction on Monday should answer those questions."

Med alla marknader utom aktiemarknaden i en deflationstrend kan man undra hur länge till aktiemarknaden kan stå emot.

Publicerad 2014-12-01 12:03:00 i Ekonomi,

French unemployment hits record high

Italian unemployment hits record high 

Oil’s price falls by $10.36/bbl, or 13.5%, in a single day, to its lowest price since 2010. 

Copper falls by 6% to $2.86/lb, 25% below its 2013 high. 

European bond yields fall to record lows. Even Italy, with government debt exceeding 130% of GDP, can now borrow for around 2%. Japan, meanwhile, issues bonds with negative interest rates. 

As Prudent Bear’s Doug Noland put it his November 28 Credit Bubble Bulletin, “Collapse of the ‘global reflation trade’ runs unabated. Where might contagion strike next?” 

European inflation approaches zero, with several member states apparently already in deflation. 

Chinese malinvestment, a topic of conversation ever since those ghost city pictures started circulating, is pegged at $6.8 trillion, or about 70% of China’s entire economy. 



Manufacturing PMI i Kina sämre än väntat närmar sig nu 50

Publicerad 2014-12-01 11:36:59 i Ekonomi,

At 50.3 (missing expectations of 50.5 for the 2nd month in a row), this is the lowest print since March. All 5 components dropped led by notable weakness is outout and new orders (new export orders biggest MoM drop in 17 months) with medium- and small-enterprises heading deeper into contraction (at 48.4 and 47.6 respectively) as the Steel industry PMI craters to 43.3. Japan's PMI dropped marginally to 52 and then HSBC's China Manufacturing confirmed the government data and flash reading with a 50 print - the lowest since May as New Export Orders growth slowed for the 2nd month.


USAs nationella skuld passerar den 9:e december $18 trilljoner

Publicerad 2014-12-01 11:07:53 i Ekonomi,

Since the start of the U.S. federal government’s 2015 fiscal year on October 1, 2014, the national debt has grown at an average rate of $2.08 billion per day.

If it helps put these very large numbers into a more human scale, when the U.S. national debt reaches $18 trillion, that will work out to be about $124,275 per U.S. household, which is up from $81,984 per U.S. household at the end of the 2008 fiscal year. And the new figure would be on top of your mortgage, car loans, student loans, credit cards, et cetera that you might also have.



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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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