Analyst Doug Short has a version of the ‘Warren Buffett Indicator’ which uses the value of the Wilshire 5,000, a very broad index. It shows that stocks are more expensive than they were before the 2008 crash and almost as expensive as they were before the dot-com crash in 2000.
Warren Buffett is not exactly shouting it from the roof tops but his favorite indicator is pointing to an imminent 50 per cent crash in US stocks. The main indexes are all far too high. You don’t need to be a genius like Warren Buffett to see it.
Just consider the 30 per cent advance in the S&P 500 Index last year and the gain of around one tenth of that in US GDP. The overlay of 1928-9 on the current chart of the Dow Jones is compelling:
Again we appear to be on the precipice of a huge drop in the stock market, with a massive downside. Yet that would only wipe out the gains of the past two years. Given that they appear abnormal in the context of lack lustre US economic growth would this really be so remarkable?