Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2014-05-30 17:41:16 i Ekonomi,

This week gold and silver fell sharply. The principal reason was the expiry of the June gold future contract on Comex, whose open interest has unwound 120,000 contracts in the last six trading sessions. Some of this has been rolled forward, but Open Interest still took a bad knock as shown in the chart below.

open interest vs gold price

As of this morning there are only 5,454 June contracts left to sell or roll, so this selling pressure is effectively over. In silver, which has not been pressured by an active contract expiry, open interest has been increasing steadily, as shown in the next chart.

open interest vs silver price

Silver's OI appears to be driven by an increase in short positions in the Managed Money category, so hedge funds are presumably anticipating the July contract running off the board. Anyway their shorts are now at a new record high, which is technically bullish.

MM silver shorts

It's worth remembering that Managed Money, which is another way of saying "hedge funds", rarely takes a straight bet. Instead this category buys or sells precious metals as a counterpart to positions in other markets. So selling down gold and silver futures while physical demand still outstrips supply is to some extent a counterpart of bond and equity positions. And here it's worth noting that bond yields have collapsed this year, as shown in the chart of UST 10-year bonds.

US 10-yr Treasury yield

It's not confined to US Treasuries: high-risk assets such as Spanish and Italian 10-yr bonds now yield an incredibly low 2.81% and 2.92% respectively. It is an open question as to how the gold price will react when these obvious anomalies are corrected.

Away from the hurly-burly of markets there have been some important developments for gold. Russia announced last week she had bought 28 tonnes of gold in April, despite her currency reserves being under pressure from capital outflows. Vladimir Putin stated at the St Petersburg International Forum that "for us (Russia and China) it is important to deposit gold and currency reserves in a rational and secure way". Given that currency reserves are always held in accounts at the originating foreign central banks, he must have been referring to gold rather than currencies.

Meanwhile China is expanding her control over global gold trading having invited a select group of western banks to participate in an additional trading platform based in the Shanghai free trade zone.

Thus, Russia and China are the geopolitical equivalent of a pair of purse seine net trawlers quietly encircling unsuspecting gold dealers in western paper markets. Watch what happens to the gold price when the bottom of the net is drawn together, cutting off any escape through lower prices before they realise they are fatally trapped.

USAs ekonomi enligt Shadowstats

Publicerad 2014-05-30 11:54:15 i Ekonomi,

Mr. Williams shares the following with us.

- It’s the Consumer, Not the Weather!

- Weakening Economy Should Hit U.S. Dollar Hard, Boost Gold - First-Quarter Gross Domestic Product Fell by 1.0%;Gross National Product Tumbled by 2.1%; Gross Domestic Income Dropped by 2.3%

- Before Inflation Adjustment, Nominal First-Quarter GDP Gained Just 0.3%

- Pending Trade Data and Revisions Should Help to Set Negative Tone for Second-Quarter GDP and the GDP Benchmark Revision

"No. 631: Revised First-Quarter GDP " Web-page:

När man ser detta förstår man att det blåser höger och vänster vindar inom EU

Publicerad 2014-05-30 09:53:30 i Ekonomi,

The ratio of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion in the EU increased by 0.5 percentage points in 2012 to 24.8% or 124.2 million people, according to figures updated this week. The risk increased most in bailed-out nations Greece and Cyprus, where the rate rose by 3.6 and 2.5 percentage points, respectively. The Netherlands had the lowest risk at 15%.



George Soros säljer banker och köper guld gruvor

Publicerad 2014-05-23 09:46:07 i Ekonomi,

The Wall Street Journal reported that “George Soros  dumped his stakes in banks and went for tech and gold miners in the first  quarter, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission Thursday. Soros sold his  holdings in Citigroup (NYSE:C) , J.P. Morgan (NYSE:JPM) and Bank of America  (NYSE:BAC)”

George Soros sells all shares of Citigroup, Bank of America and JP Morgan

Från Mike Maloneys blogg

Publicerad 2014-05-19 13:30:33 i Ekonomi,

This Economic Crisis Will be a Global Phenomenon
"The past several years, I have spoken in many countries about the crisis that is coming and a lot people think that they're going to be OK in their country, that it's only going to happen to the United States, or maybe the USA and Europe.
What they don't realize is that this is a GLOBAL PHENOMENON.
Every government on the planet is doing this insane deficit spending and expanding their currency supplies, doing bail-outs.
History shows, there is no example of this turning out well.

Från Eric Sprotts blogg

Publicerad 2014-05-19 13:28:14 i Ekonomi,

Silver Could Go to $400, It Could Go to $1000
‘Well, you can default on some things.’ And we know there has to be some form of default. We say either ‘We can’t afford to pay you’ or ‘We’re going to depreciate the currency and we are going to pay you with devalued currency.’
But if they take that second option where they are just devaluing the currency, the price (of silver) can go anywhere. There is no limit where something that’s in demand and real can go relative to these fictitiously valued currencies. So of course silver could go to $400. It could go to $1,000. If we get into some hyperinflation, who knows what the number could be?
But if you ask just ‘What would you rather have, a $20 bill or an ounce of silver, or $1,300 in notes or $1,300 in physical gold?,’ I think the answer is a very simple answer when you realize what’s going on today. It’s funny that we have to put up with this two years of nonsense that’s gone on in the paper markets, but most of the people you interview, who foresaw these things many, many years ago and participated in it as you and I did, just know that the day is coming when we are going to see some huge moves in the price of gold -- not withstanding the CME's trying to limit them at the time.
That is not going to work. They will probably default. Someday the Chinese will put in an order in (to buy) and there won’t be any gold, and silver could disappear so quickly, (laughter ensues), or platinum or palladium. There is hardly any production per year, and what production there is, probably a third of it is on strike right now. So I think our day is coming.

Från Jim Rickards blogg

Publicerad 2014-05-19 13:25:19 i Ekonomi,

The Real Price of Gold Keeps Going Up
With the ratio of paper money to gold and if the gold is about constant and the paper money keeps going up then the implied price keeps going up. So if you called me a year from now I’d have to do the math, but it might be $10,000 an ounce and that’s assuming 40% backing.
But what if you had 50% backing or 75% backing? So now you’re talking about $15,000 or $20,000. The numbers just keep getting bigger and they’re not made up. They’re not numbers that I pull out of a hat to make a few headlines. These are the actual numbers you get when you do the math.

Goldman Sachs fortsätter att nedgradera tillväxten och anser att den här uppgångsfasen lider mot sitt slut.

Publicerad 2014-05-19 11:01:17 i Ekonomi,

Goldman itself has been dramatically downgrading its GDP expectations over the past few weeks and consensus for the year is also fading...


One topic no-one is really discussing is a US recession in 2014.
We should start to at least consider the risk given the maturity of
this cycle. By the end of May 2014 this expansion will be 59 months old which is
longer than the average of 39 months (median 30) since data started to be
compiled on US business cycles in 1854. The average in the 100 years since the
Fed was formed in 1913 is 50 months (median 42). This cycle is now
the sixth-longest of the 34 cycles since 1854


Håller kinesiska fastighets bubblan på att spricka

Publicerad 2014-05-16 15:44:31 i Ekonomi,

According to the Chinese financial publication Securities Daily, emergency real estate rescue packages have been launched in large cities such as Wuxi, Nanning, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Tongling and Zhengzhou in the last month alone.

Recently, a large Chinese property developer decided, for the first time, to discount condos by 40% when sales stalled. This discounting trend is likely to spread rapidly now as more developers are forced to discount prices just to raise cash and avoid bankruptcy.

The richest man in China, with $31.9 billion, is Li Ka-shing. He and his son, Richard, have sold $3 billion of prime commercial properties in the last nine months. That tells that smart money is leaving before the bubble bursts!

A number of major developers have gone bankrupt. These developers are highly leveraged and pose the greatest threat to the banking system, which has grown more through shadow banking and sub-prime lending in the last few years than anything sustainable. The worst new statistic, as developers pull back, is that housing starts in floor space dropped 37% in the first four months of 2013.

Bad loans are rising fast in China.






Efterfrågan för silver mynt håller i sig

Publicerad 2014-05-13 10:53:40 i Ekonomi,



























Total Sold





Data source: U.S. Mint web site, last accessed May 1, 2014

Silver  Better Opportunity Than Gold Year

James Turk anser att silvret är den mest undervärderade tillgången

Publicerad 2014-05-13 10:26:44 i Ekonomi,

There is one other point I would like to make about my review of commodity prices on the World Bank site.  They actually include one other commodity with prices from January 1980 to the present -- silver.  The eye-opening point is that silver is only 51 percent of its price 34 years ago.

How is it possible that silver can be so cheap given its use in so many new applications and the continuing drawdown of its above-ground stock?  We all of course know the answer to that question because silver is part of the central planners’ scheme to keep the price of the precious metals as low as they can.  Yet gold is 192 percent of its price at the end of January 1980.  So why hasn’t the silver price risen at the same rate?

Some people will answer that question in a variety of ways, but to me there is only one answer.  The price of silver is much easier to control than the price of gold because silver is a much smaller market, so paper derivatives can have a much bigger impact on silver.  After all, one wealthy individual controlled the whole silver market by himself for a while leading to its price spike in 1980.  So imagine what a group of governments and their bullion bank agents can do with their combined resources if they are intent on manipulating silver.

But regardless of the ongoing manipulation of the silver price, one obvious fact stands out from my comparison of commodity prices -- silver is very, very cheap.  Silver is by far the cheapest of the 63 commodities I compared.  That makes silver a tremendously undervalued asset and therefore one of the best buys on the planet today.”


 James Turk on How to Protect Your Portfolio from the Mother of All Bubbles - Casey Research

Bitcoins plattform får in $30 miljoner. Richard Branson en av investerarna.

Publicerad 2014-05-09 11:16:19 i Ekonomi,

Very, very big news just broke in the Bitcoin space. According to TechCrunch, Bitcoin payment processor Bitpay has just raised $30 million in what would be the largest single round of fundraising ever in the Bitcoin space. It slightly surpasses the prior largest round, announced late last year by the other major Bitcoin payment processor Coinbase for $25 million.

From TechCrunch:

We’re hearing that BitPay, a platform that processes payments in bitcoin for merchants, is raising the field’s biggest round yet. The company is raising $30 million on a roughly $160 million valuation in a round led by Index Ventures, with Richard Branson and Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang participating. BitPay declined to comment.

 BitPay is Now Adding 1,000 New Merchants Per Week.

As Wall Street Looks to Copy Bitcoin, The Department of Defense Studies it as a “Terrorist Threat”



Börjar det dra ihop sig. Russell 2000 på väg ner och tendenser i marknaden som vi sett förut.

Publicerad 2014-05-09 10:06:15 i Ekonomi,

The ever-vigilant Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader came across yet another market divergence.  Here's a bit of what he wrote.

In 35 years of history, this is only the third time that the NYSE Composite Index was sitting at a 52-week high one day, and the next day the Russell 2000 had fallen below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The two precedents occurred on 3/12/99 and 11/1/07, which is disturbing as it preceded the last two bear markets. It's tenuous (!) to place a lot of weight on a sample size of two, though this is another warning that the divergences we've been seeing lately have not had positive outcomes the majority of the time.


ETF fonden för guld, GLD handlas nu i fas 1 och måste bryta 135 på uppsidan för att gå in i fas 2

Publicerad 2014-05-08 12:29:36 i Ekonomi,

The opportunity in the gold stocks is that they are trading at low P/E ratios, low P/B ratios, and there is investor dis-interest and apathy after suffering such big losses in a bear market.  The problem with gold though is it's fighting against overhead resistance, as sellers that are locking in losses are about at equilibrium with buyers looking to "buy the dip".  This is what creates the conditions for the Stage 1 base that we are in now as shown in the chart below.

Det blir färre aktier som är med på uppgången vilket inte håller i längden. Samtidigt har vi en head and shoulder formation för Nasdaq.

Publicerad 2014-05-08 12:18:06 i Ekonomi,

The market's rise is coming on a narrowing base of support. That's a sign of weakness.                                        

Consider that as the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed to a new all-time high, just 67% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are in uptrends vs. nearly 84% when the Dow last closed at a new all-time high at the end of 2013. Or that the last time the Dow hit an intraday all-time high earlier this month the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-day moving average was around 77% vs. just 59% now.                                        

Sector after sector is rolling over. To my eyes, it looks like a growing swath of the markets — despite the Dow's push higher — is coming under increasingly aggressive selling pressure. It started with big tech and biotech in March, but is now spreading to other areas, including financial stocks now.


Marc Faber har inga höga tankar om centralbankerna, med all rätt.

Publicerad 2014-05-08 10:36:36 i Ekonomi,

Once the collapse happens, the power of central banks will be curtailed
because people will realize who brought along first the Nasdaq
bubble in 1999: The Federal Reserve. Who brought about the housing bubble
between 2001 and 2007? The Federal Reserve. And who is bringing now along
another great credit bubble and asset bubble? The Federal Reserve.”
 As Marc Faber warned, "I don’t trust anyone." Simply put,
Faber blasts, "the monetary policies as they are implemented by central
banks around the world, are actually preventing the markets from clearing and
[not allowing] the economy to truly improve."
His recommendation, he'd
"prefer investors hold physical gold in a safe deposit box, ideally outside the
US," because "Fed policy will destroy the world."

Tillväxten för företagen i Kina minskade med 7% under Q1 jämfört med Q1 2013.

Publicerad 2014-05-06 09:36:26 i Ekonomi,

Despite the promise of 6-7% GDP growth forever - fake invoices, intangible
accounting, and contracting PMIs aside - based on the Hang Seng China Enterprise
Index, revenues for Chinese firms dropped over 7% in Q1 compared to the
same period in 2013
. This is the largest year-over-year drop since Q1
2009. As China Daily reports, earnings growth remains positive but is at the slowest since
Q3 2012...  

Institutioner säljer aktier och privatpersoner köper. Typiskt sista fasen i en bull markand.

Publicerad 2014-05-02 11:07:31 i Ekonomi,

Last week, during which the S&P 500 was down 0.1%, BofAML clients were net sellers of $1.5bn of US stocks following a week of net buying.

Net sales were chiefly due to institutional clients, who have now sold stocks for the last five consecutive weeks and are the biggest net sellers year-to-date. Net sales by this group last week were their largest since January and the fourth-largest in our data history (since 2008).


Min profilbild

Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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