High Yield marknaden i USA handlas på ungefär samma risknivå som före kraschen 2000 och 2008. Energisektorn ligger riktigt illa till där det kan bli stora förluster.
This pretty much sums up today’s fixed income world. And if past is prologue, soon to come will be a brutally rude awakening. Most of the following charts are from a long, very well-done cautionary article by Nottingham Advisors’ Lawrence Whistler:
Junk yield premiums over US Treasuries are back down to housing bubble levels:
So are default rates:
The supply of junk bonds is way higher than before the previous two market crashes:
As for what might cause the junk market to crack, one prime candidate is the oil industry. The shale boom has led a lot of energy companies to ramp up production using other people’s money, much of which is coming from junk bonds. Now, with oil down from $100/bbl to around $80, the nice fat coverage ratios on these bonds are looking disturbingly skinny. This chart shows the divergence between overall junk spreads and energy-sector junk spreads.