Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Hur länge till kan detta Ponzi scheme hålla på

Publicerad 2014-10-31 10:47:51 i Ekonomi,

These are all indicators that QE has failed – miserably.  The price of gold is the biggest lie of them all.   The Government has no choice but to try and exert downward pressure on the price of gold because if the price of gold were allowed to trade freely, it would expose every other big lie.
This whole system is one big fraudulent lie. A Ponzi scheme of the magnitude that makes Madoff and Enron combined look miniscule.   When they can no longer cover up this big lie, the stock market is going to drop – and gold and silver will rise – more quickly and violently than anyone can imagine.   It will be the end of our political and economic system as we know it.

Alan Greenspan gillar guld och tror att det kommer att bli problematiskt utan QE

Publicerad 2014-10-30 10:23:39 i Ekonomi,

Mr. Greenspan’s comments to the Council on Foreign Relations came as Fed officials were meeting in Washington, D.C., and expected to announce within hours an end to the bond purchases.

He said the bond-buying program was ultimately a mixed bag. He said that the purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities did help lift asset prices and lower borrowing costs. But it didn’t do much for the real economy. 

“Effective demand is dead in the water” and the effort to boost it via bond buying “has not worked,” said Mr. Greenspan. Boosting asset prices, however, has been “a terrific success.”

He observed that history shows central banks can only prick bubbles at great economic cost. “It’s only by bringing the economy down can you burst the bubble,” and that was a step he wasn't willing to take while helming the Fed, he said.

He also said, “I don’t think it’s possible” for the Fed to end its easy-money policies in a trouble-free manner....

And finally - while CNBC's audience is told what a terrible thing gold is, "The Maestro", having personally created the financial cataclysm the world finds itself in following a lifetime of belief in fiat, Keynesian ideology and "fixing" one bubble with an even greater and more destructive asset bubble, has suddenly had an epiphany and now has a very different message from the one he preached during his decades as the head of the Fed.


Mr. Greenspan said gold is a good place to put money these days given its value as a currency outside of the policies conducted by governments.

What Greenspan failed to add is that it is thanks to his disastrous policies (subsequently adopted by Bernanke and Yellen) that gold is the "place to put money."

Bildresultat för alan greenspan

Kina och Indien köper mer än allt guld som produceras

Publicerad 2014-10-29 16:04:02 i Ekonomi,

MineWeb's Lawrence Williams writes, China and India alone appear to be taking each month more gold than is being produced. "All indicators suggest that there could indeed be a very large supply deficit building," Williams writes. He adds: "One day gold will surely take off but whether it's this week, next week, next month, next year, or 10 years' time remains open to question. It just depends on how long the big money, and perhaps governments, can keep playing the futures markets to keep commodity prices working to their advantage."

Williams' commentary is headlined "Hong Kong Gold Exports to China Pick Up Strongly But. ..." and it's posted at MineWeb here:

Det blir ingen fart i världshandeln

Publicerad 2014-10-29 12:08:51 i Ekonomi,

This Great Graphic is from the Dutch Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), and was posted by Steve Goldstein at MarketWatch.  It shows the three-month average year-over-year growth rate of global trade.

The growth of trade slowed dramatically in from the second half of 2010 to the end of 2011.  The pace of growth has steadied around 2% over the last thee years.  

In the 90s and noughts, world trade grew faster than world growth.  Over the two decades world trade grew by more than 5% a year.  In part, subdued growth in trade in recent years reflects slower world growth.  Last month, the World Bank cut its forecast for this year's growth to 3.1% from 4.7%.  World growth is expected to firm to 4% next year, not the 5.3% pace projected earlier this year. 

Bulls är tillbaka på rekordnivåer

Publicerad 2014-10-29 11:54:44 i Ekonomi,

The American Association of Individual Investors survey (AAII) has a good record in signaling important lows. Despite the previous week's large sell-off the survey showed optimism at a six-week high (the survey was completed prior to the Friday rally). That aberration should have been corrected last week. Instead, last week's numbers show optimism surging and pessimism plunging again - implying that the 10/15/14 low was not an "important" low (the "buy the dips" mentality was stronger than any fear created by the market drop). With optimism already more than one standard deviation above average I am beginning to question my forecast for a bullish November. Equities may top out sooner than previously expected . It's looking very possible that the next high may see equities drop to new lows.


Vi är nu nära en recession i USA

Publicerad 2014-10-29 11:25:00 i Ekonomi,

The ratio of coincident-to-lagging conference board indices has an admirable record as a recession forecaster... and is at its lowest level since Sept 2009.

ECRI’s weekly Leading Index is flashing warnings again…


Svårt för EU att se någon förbättring för företagens vinster

Publicerad 2014-10-27 11:53:37 i Ekonomi,


European equities had their 42nd straight month of earnings downgrades in September, with an average of 100 downgrades per working day since March 2011, says a recent report from UBS. That’s not quite as bad as Japan’s 51-month downgrade streak in the early nineties, and fortunately there are signs that estimates could finally turn around.


“Bottom-up consensus earnings estimates have tended to be perennially too optimistic across many Global Equity markets. But even by these standards, the sheer persistence of downgrades in Europe over recent years has been dramatic,” write UBS strategists Nick Nelson and Karen Olney.

Den här veckan kommer med största säkerhet FED avsluta sin QE3. Vi vet vad som hände med börsen när tidigare stimulanser avslutades. Frågan är vad som händer denna gång.

Publicerad 2014-10-27 11:26:55 i Ekonomi,


When the first round of QE purchases was completed in March 2010, the S&P fell by more than 13% during the next few months. During roughly the same time period, the 10-year note yield fell from 3.85% to 2.38%, commodity prices tumbled around 10 percent, and the M3 money supply dropped from a positive 2%, to a negative 6% annual rate of change.


Similarly, once QE2 ended in June 2011, the S&P fell by 17% within three months. The 10-year note yield dove from 3.2% to 1.8%, and again coincided with a plummet in commodity prices and M3 money supply.

Guldet klart undervärderat i förhållande till den monetära basen

Publicerad 2014-10-24 10:47:03 i Ekonomi,

The chart shows a potential triple-bottom pattern formed over fifteen months, at just over $1180/oz. We know that the three bottoms were all at quarter-ends, strongly suggestive of price manipulation to enhance bullion bank profits and their traders’ bonuses. In each case, computer-driven traders had near-record short positions evident in this second chart, of Managed Money shorts on Comex:

The chart below shows how FMQ has grown since 1959. It shows a steady rate of exponential growth prior to the Lehman crisis, after which it has increased alarmingly:

Första mätningen för hur det skall gå i folkomröstningen i Schweiz för uppbackning av guld visar sig vara klart för ett Ja.

Publicerad 2014-10-22 13:02:34 i Ekonomi,

The first opinion poll has just come out.  The Swiss paper just published the opinion poll.  The ‘Yes’ camp has 45 percent and the ‘No’ camp has 39 percent, with 16 percent undecided.  This is a shocking development because the Yes campaign hasn’t started yet (see stunning polling results below).


USA lånar som aldrig förr, exponentiell kurva och var skall det sluta

Publicerad 2014-10-22 11:51:23 i Ekonomi,

On September 30th, 2013 the U.S. national debt was sitting at $16,738,183,526,697.32.  As I write this, the U.S. national debt is sitting at $17,742,108,970,073.37.  That means that the U.S. national debt has actually grown by more than a trillion dollars in less than 12 months.  We continue to wildly run up debt as if there is no tomorrow, and by doing so we are destroying the future of this nation.

The chart that I have posted below shows the exponential growth of the U.S. national debt over the past several decades.  Anyone that would characterize this as "under control" is lying to you...

National Debt 2014

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2014-10-17 12:44:48 i Ekonomi,

The outlook for gold is now more positive than it has been for some time. After a prolonged period of low volatility as funds invested in ever-greater risk, markets have snapped and volatility has jumped. In short, we are swinging very suddenly from complacency to reality.

Financial markets hit a serious air-pocket this week, with a collapse in US Treasury bond yields in a dash-for-cash, illustrated in the chart below.

US Try 10 17102014

On Wednesday the yield fell from 2.21% to 1.87%, a move of over three whole points on the price, which for a ten-year maturity is truly exceptional, though it did rally subsequently. The relevance to precious metals is there are many hedge funds which have bet on rising bond yields and a falling gold price. And given that these funds gear their trades up through futures markets, the losses will have been considerable. Indeed, hedge funds recently held near-record short positions in gold, shown in the next chart of Managed Money shorts on Comex.

MM Gold Shorts 17102014

The Managed Money category includes hedge-funds, high frequency and also algorithmic traders, most of which are hard-wired into higher interest rates next year and as we can see from their short positions, they have placed large bets that the gold price will fall.

Extreme positions are also reflected in equities, with margin debt hitting new excesses, as can be seen in the next chart, of margin debt on the NYSE.

In August this figure stood at $463bn, which was considerably higher than at the 2007 market peak before the banking crisis, and is approaching double the highs seen during the dot-com bubble. This level of financial leverage is likely to do significant damage as it is unwound.

So far, gold has held firm. Having rallied from $1185 last week, this week it gained modestly to $1240 in early London trade this morning. Open Interest has recovered consistently showing that new buying and not short-covering has been driving prices as shown in the next chart of Comex Open Interest.NYSE Margin Debt 17102014

In August this figure stood at $463bn, which was considerably higher than at the 2007 market peak before the banking crisis, and is approaching double the highs seen during the dot-com bubble. This level of financial leverage is likely to do significant damage as it is unwound.

So far, gold has held firm. Having rallied from $1185 last week, this week it gained modestly to $1240 in early London trade this morning. Open Interest has recovered consistently showing that new buying and not short-covering has been driving prices as shown in the next chart of Comex Open Interest.

Gold Open Interest 17102014

Silver's recovery has been subdued, and as a result the gold/silver ratio has risen to over 70. Silver and the platinum group metals seem to be affected more by deteriorating manufacturing prospects than their monetary characteristics. Palladium in particular has been hit hard, falling up to 9% this week.

When we see bond prices for Greek sovereign debt collapse, yields for Spanish and Italian debt start rising while others are falling; when we see the outright bullishness expressed by excessive margin debt in equity markets; and when we see oil prices nose-dive, we know that markets are on the edge of substantive change. The attraction of holding some physical bullion as insurance against what looks like developing into a serious market fall-out has gained several notches.



Goldman skriver ner vinsterna för Q3

Publicerad 2014-10-10 11:27:01 i Ekonomi,

As Goldman's Amanda Sneider says, expect disappointing revenue results and negative EPS guidance. The reason: weaker macro data and dollar  strengthening increase the likelihood of sales misses. Goldman also anticipates increased negative earnings guidance as companies quantify the FX headwind. The one positive offset, if not for energy companies, is that the net impact of oil changes on index-level EPS tends to be modest as firms benefit from lower input costs.

Från Eric Sprotts Blogg

Publicerad 2014-10-08 12:11:29 i Ekonomi,

Eric Sprotts Current Outlook for Gold

 The most important factor right now is the physical shortage of gold. The declining amounts of gold in Shanghai storage suggest we are getting close. So I expect something to happen in the physical gold markets soon.

There are lots of people who are willing to support the Fed – to play along with it. But of course, they’re all looking at the exits if the game changes. I don’t really think there are that many people who sincerely believe there is some strong recovery, or that there is some plan that’s going to solve the financial crisis.

The central banks continue to pile on debt without delivering results. I think that most people understand that. We’re seeing stocks going higher while volumes are going down. Well, when you hit new records in the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ, you’re supposed to be seeing higher volume, not lower volume. That doesn’t seem to make sense.

When people finally decide they want to buy gold, there probably won’t be any gold. I’m happy to own it and I’m happy to keep buying it.

Tillväxt skapas genom att fler arbetar och att lönerna går upp vilket inte är fallet i USA. Börsen går upp på vad som verkar vara starka jobbsiffror vilket inte var fallet.

Publicerad 2014-10-06 10:20:00 i Ekonomi,

While by now everyone should know the answer, for those curious why the US unemployment rate just slid once more to a meager 5.9%, the lowest print since the summer of 2008, the answer is the same one we have shown every month since 2010: the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which in September slid from an already three decade low 62.8% to 62.7% - the lowest in over 36 years, matching the February 1978 lows. And while according to the Household Survey, 232,000 people found jobs, what is more disturbing is that the people not in the labor force, rose to a new record high, increasing by 315,000 to 92.6 million!

And that's how you get a fresh cycle low in the unemployment rate.

Papperspengarnas slutfas

Publicerad 2014-10-03 10:59:00 i Ekonomi,

Vid en studie av 775 fiat valutor konstaterades att den genomsnittliga livslängden för en valuta var bara 27 år. Här är fördelningen vad som hände med papperspengarna.  

20% valutor misslyckades genom hyperinflation
21% förstördes genom krig
12% förstördes genom självständighet
24% var "monetärt reformerade"
23% är fortfarande i omlopp 

Dagens globala monetära system består av dessa fiat valutor och dom har varit i bruk sedan 1971. Vi har således hållit systemet igång betydligt längre än snittet på ca 27år. Med tanke på att vi har noll ränta och systemet hålls ihop med nytryckta pengar så börjar vi närma oss slutet. Om vi skall tro historien så är det mest troligt att systemet görs om genom krig, inflation eller ett reformerat monetärt system.

Vilket det än blir så är det mycket positivt för guld och silver som självklart skall ingå i alla investerings portföljer med minst 10%.





Tio skäl till varför börsen skall ned

Publicerad 2014-10-02 15:41:00 i Ekonomi,

1)       FEDs upphörande av stimulanser

FED kommer nu i oktober att avsluta sina köp av obligationer vilket kommer att innebära en betydligt lägre likviditet i marknaden. Samtliga gånger förut då dessa stödköp har upphört har börsen gått ned. Drar man ned likviditeten till ett pyramidspel kommer pyramiden att rasa.


2)      S&P 500 högt värderat i förhållande till försäljning

Värderingen för S&P 500 är på rekordnivåer när det gäller i förhållande till företagens försäljning. Vi har idag högre värdering än 2000 och man skall ta hänsyn till att idag har vi svårt att skapa tillväxt och därför bör denna värdering vara klart lägre än vad vi har idag.

3)       Färre aktier håller indexen uppe

Diskrepansen mellan aktier som sätter nya årshögsta och dom som sätter nya årslägsta blir fler och fler vilket i längden blir ohållbart. Skillnaden är idag den högsta sedan Augusti 2013 vilket var den perioden då QE startade. Idag är det den perioden då QE avslutas och marknaden får klara sig själv.  

4)          Börsvärde i förhållande till BNP

Idag har USAs börser ett börsvärde motsvarande ca 203% av BNP vilket är ungefär samma nivå som när börsbubblan sprack år 2000. Skall jämföras med 1929 då motsvarande värde utgjorde ca 87% innan den bubblan sprack.


5)          Värdering enligt P/E Shiller

Vi har bara sett dessa värderingar enligt P/E Shiller tre gånger under de senaste hundra åren och det har varit mycket snabba nedgångar efter samtliga toppar.

Shiller PE Ratio Chart


6)      Vinstmarginaler

Företagens vinstmarginaler är på all time high vilket indikerar att det med största sannolikhet kommer att justeras ned till den mer långsiktiga nivån nu när vi fått en högre lång ränta. En av anledningarna till sämre vinstmarginaler i framtiden är högre räntor och att man kommer behöva betala sina anställda mer då dessa har haft en vikande löneutveckling under många år.

7)       FED avslutar stimulanser i en vikande ekonomi

Det presenters nu sämre ekonomiska siffror vilket indikerar att FED drar ned sin stimulering i en vikande ekonomi. Det är inte bara USA utan även Japan och Kina som just nu har stora problem med den ekonomiska utvecklingen. Inom EU har man deflations problem och tillväxten vägrar att ta fart. Att börserna globalt är nära all time high under dessa förutsättningar indikerar bara att vi kan vara nära en mycket kraftig rekyl globalt.


8)          Återköpen av aktier.

Återköpen av aktier har ökat de senaste åren och många företag har lånat till återköpen. Börjar man nu diskontera dyrare lån och mer investeringar inom företagen kommer dessa återköp att minska och därmed reducera kapitalet som har flödat till börsen.

9)          Insiders säljer aktier samtidigt rekordnivåer för belåning av aktier.

Under 2014 är det endast ca 7200 som köpt aktier I bolag där man är klassad som insider. Detta skall jämföras med att det är ca 23 300 som har sålt i sina bolag. Detta är ungefär samma köp/sälj ratio som under år 2000.

Belåningen är samtidigt på rekordnivåer vilket kan få margin calls att aktivers snabbt om börsen börjar gå ned under kort tid.

NYSE Margin Debt


10)        Kapitalkrävande IPOs  .

Under hösten har det gjorts ett antal mycket kapitalkrävande IPOs i USA. Alibabas introduktion kan mycket väl vara satt på den absoluta börstoppen. Man kan lätt få uppfattningen att börsen har hållits på denna höga nivå för att få Alibabas introduktion klar och bankerna kan kassera in feta arvoden.

IPO Chart







Mycket stort intresse för Silver Eagles i september

Publicerad 2014-10-02 10:35:31 i Ekonomi,

Silver Eagle sales were quite strong in the beginning of the year and started to slow down in June.  However, the manipulated lower price of silver motivated investors to ramp up the purchases making September one of the three strongest months of the year.

Lyssna på Steve Keen

Publicerad 2014-10-01 11:41:39 i Ekonomi,

In @ 15:15 - After the break, Erin is joined by Steve Keen, head of the School of Economics, History, and Politics at Kingston University, to hear what he’s teaching in his courses and what he believes are the most important macroeconomic concepts for the average person to know. His view: credit should play a central role but it doesn’t.

Jim Rickards om vad som kommer hända vid nästa finansiella kris.

Publicerad 2014-10-01 11:38:58 i Ekonomi,

I think this financial panic would be different than the last one. The reason is that in all of the financial panics since 1971 the solution was to print money provide liquidity. But prior to 1971 historically the solution was to shut the doors. To close the stock exchange, close the banks, close funds so you can not get your money. That’s what Nixon did in 1971 he closed the gold door so you can’t get your gold. Since then 1987 stock market crash, 1994 Mexico crisis, 1998 Russia LTCM dot com, 2007 mortgage crisis, 2008 panic; in all these crises the solution was to print more money. My expectation is that next time money printing is not gonna work because they can’t print more they have already printed a lot. So they gonna have to go to the old solution. We are already seeing this. For example, the SEC passed a rule last month saying that money market funds can suspend redemptions. This is the law. Now if you talk to the US investors who have money market funds they think it is cash. They think they can call the broker today and money is in the bank tomorrow. They gonna find it is not cash. It has actually closed the door. That’s gonna be a shock. So the financial panic itself will be as always a shock.... But the remedy is not gonna be printing more money. They could print SDRs but that is a little experimental. But, maybe in this case, they have to start closing things down. Which in the distant past that was always what they did.
Jim Rickards - The Great Financial Flood


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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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