Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Alla är redan köpt aktier vem skall ta över stafettpinnen

Publicerad 2015-04-30 10:55:00 i Ekonomi,

KWN II 4:29:2015
The new market highs inspired a large jump for the bulls to 57.4%. That was up from 52.5% and 50.5% over the prior two weeks, just below the readings that ended Feb when indexes also set records. Bulls above 50% show elevated risk and that has persisted since Nov-14 with only a few weeks of exceptions. Bullishness at the +60% level points to near fully invested outlooks and major tops. Sentiment is a leading indicator and in Jun-14 the bulls hit 62.6%. The market first edged higher after that but then fell sharply early fall, ending with a bottom in Oct 2014. By then the bulls had tumbled to 35.3%. That signaled lower risk buying conditions. 

There was a small contraction for the bears at 13.9%. That is from 15.2% a week ago and equals the 2015 low for the bears just before that. Again the bears show the same depressed reading that ended Nov-14. This is a lonely outlook held mostly by cycle followers. The upcoming seasonality shift (sell in May and go away) hasn't yet convinced many advisors to shift their outlook.

The spread between the bulls and bears increased to 43.5%, up from 37.3%. That ends three weeks below 40% and again a dangerous difference in danger territory last seen late Feb. The spread was then 45.4% before stocks sold off. Differences over 30% are a worry and above 40% signal major caution. Bears haven't outnumbered bulls (a negative spread) since Oct-2011. 

Det går fort utför i USA. Hade man inte haft en av de högsta uppbyggnaderna av lager så hade BNP sjunkit med ca 2,6%. Håller FED på och förbereder en Q4.

Publicerad 2015-04-29 16:27:43 i Ekonomi,

Here is how the total GDP growth compares to just the increase in inventories, which as we wrote earlier this week, is the primary reason why the world is now gripped in a global deflationary wave.
In other words, if US inventories, already at record high levels, and with the inventory to sales rising to great financial crisis levels, had not grown by $121.9 billion and merely remained flat, US Q1 GDP would not be 0.2%, but would be -2.6%.

UK har lägre tillväxt än väntat och senare i veckan kommer USA med en kall dusch för sitt första kvartal

Publicerad 2015-04-28 13:20:23 i Ekonomi,

With US Q1 GDP set to be a huge disappointment to initial estimates of 3% growth set at the beginning of the year, and since plunging to 1% or lower when it is reported later this week because, well, it inexplicably snowed in the winter for the second year in a row, earlier today we learned that US harsh weather cross the Atlantic and landed in the UK where ONS reported that the economy grew at a tepid pace of just 0.3% in the first quarter, well below consensus estimates of 0.5%, and at the lowest pace since Q4 2012 when GDP posted a 0.3% drop.


Har silvret format sin botten. Silvret handlas just nu i backwardation och JP Morgan köper fysiskt vilket kan tyda på att vi ser botten just nu.

Publicerad 2015-04-28 13:13:48 i Ekonomi,

James Turk om silvret just nu.

Spot silver for immediate delivery is trading 5-cents above delivery for 1-week forward. If you annualize it, that’s roughly a 16% per annum return that arbitrageurs are not taking. It is about a deep a backwardation as I have seen. 

It means that there is a real scramble for physical metal at the moment, with the big price jump today being the visible result. Importantly, there is a good reason for this flight to safety with investors buying tangible assets with no counterparty risk.

KWN - India - Silver - Bars

Guldaktierna har aldrig varit billigare

Publicerad 2015-04-27 11:44:56 i Ekonomi,

Below we plot the Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI) against Gold. The BGMI dates back to 1938. The ratio recently touched its lowest level in at least 77 years! There might not be anyone alive today who has seen gold stocks this cheap relative to Gold.

Varför köper JP Morgan stora mängder fysiskt silver

Publicerad 2015-04-27 11:23:00 i Ekonomi,

Here’s a breakdown of the Comex’s most recent silver deliveries to JP Morgan:

April 7th: 1,110,000 ounces

April 8th: 1,280,000 ounces

April 9th:  893,037 ounces

April 10th: 1,200,224 ounces

April 14th: 1,073,000 ounces

April 15th: 1,191,275 ounces

April 16th: 1,183,777.295 ounces

This is a huge bout of deliveries in such a short space of time. In fact, within the realm of Comex world, it’s such an exceptionally large amount, that it even creates quite a spike on the long-term chart of JP Morgan’s vault stockpile:

JP Morgan Silver

Silver Bars - Public Domain

John Williams om USAs ekonomi

Publicerad 2015-04-25 11:48:54 i Ekonomi,

- Both Nominal and Real First-Quarter 2015 GDP Face Contraction, But Headline Downturn May Await the First Revision 
- Consensus Forecasts Never Catch Economic Downturns, Yet the Consensus Outlook Is Weighted into the Initial GDP Estimate 
- Real Durable Goods Orders Confirmed Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions; Signaling a Second-Quarter GDP Decline and Formal Recession 
- Household Income Declined Sharply in March 
- Existing-Home Sales Fell at Annualized 7.2% (-7.2%) Pace in First-Quarter 2015 
- Unstable Plunge in New-Home Sales Data Amidst Continued and Protracted Stagnation

Nasdaqs vinstutveckling hänger på ett enda bolag

Publicerad 2015-04-25 11:40:00 i Ekonomi,

With the Nasdaq sitting at new highs having finally eclipsed the previous record of 5,048 set in March of 2000 and with consumers not-so-eagerly awaiting their chance to get in on the supposed wave of the wearables future by purchasing their very own Apple Watch, we learn that the fate of the tech bubble now rests entirely on the shoulders of Tim Cook because as FactSet notes, "blended Q1 Y/Y EPS growth for the Information Technology sector is 0.7% [but] excluding Apple, the blended earnings growth rate for the sector would fall to -5.1%.”

That rather disconcerting statistic makes this the scariest chart in the world for tech investors:


Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2015-04-24 13:42:02 i Ekonomi,

Gold and silver 2015 USD

Precious metals continued their consolidation this week, with gold drifting off $10 to $1195 as of last night, and silver by $0.42 to $15.85. Intra-day trading ranges are relatively tight with buyers of physical metal on the dips and sellers of paper contracts capping rises.

There is little doubt that the global economic outlook, with China's economy slowing and earlier expectations for US growth trimmed back, is affecting sentiment. An analyst's note from Morgan Stanley forecast lower gold prices for the next two years, on the basis that negative bond rates elsewhere will continue to drive flows into US credit, continuing dollar strength.

There is an underlying argument that quantitative easing is not working, and zero interest rates are not preventing deflation. That being the case, there are many fund managers who are not only bullish on the US dollar in currency markets, but they believe its purchasing power in terms of goods and services is likely to increase. If this analysis is correct, then, it follows that gold priced in dollars will continue to fall.

Whether or not this undermines the gold price in the short-term remains to be seen, but empirical evidence tells a very different story. The situation in Germany and Austria in 1919 was similar, in that massive monetary stimulation failed to improve the economic outlook, and the overwhelming public opinion was that prices would fall. In other words, the purchasing power of the mark and crown respectively was expected to rise. As we know, the reverse was true with both currencies collapsing entirely a few years later.

The fact that Germany and Austria were dealing with a post-war slump and the conditions today are inherently financial does not invalidate the comparison. When inflating the money supply fails to stimulate an economy, people will logically believe deflationary forces are greater than inflationary forces, when the likelihood of a currency collapse has actually increased. We appear to be at this point in time.

The result is that on Comex the hedge funds have maintained above-average short positions in gold, allowing the bullion banks to reduce theirs. In silver Open Interest has rocketed up to all-time highs as shown in the chart below.

Silver Interest USD

It appears from Commitment of Traders* data that most of the increase in Open Interest this year has been in spread positions by both swaps and managed money categories. This indicates that poor underlying liquidity is contributing to price differentials across different contract maturities.

Last week, the Shanghai Gold Exchange delivered 49.95 tonnes of gold into public hands, an increase of 44.7% on the previous week.

Richard Russell om silvret.

Publicerad 2015-04-21 11:24:53 i Ekonomi,

My advice is buy silver. Load up on silver. To buy actual physical silver I suggest buying the “monster” silver boxes. If you don’t want to buy physical silver, I suggest buying SLW, SLV, CEF, in equal portions. Unlike gold, silver has never been wrested from the public by government edict. 
King World News - - INCREDIBLE NEW BREAKTHROUGH IN SILVER- This Will Change The World

JP Morgan köper stora mängder fysiskt silver

Publicerad 2015-04-21 11:12:28 i Ekonomi,

JP Morgan Chase, not only see value in silver here, but they’re currently standing for delivery in their own house account in such strong numbers, that it commands our attention. Here’s a breakdown of the Comex’s most recent silver deliveries to JP Morgan:

April 7th: 1,110,000 ounces

April 8th: 1,280,000 ounces

April 9th:  893,037 ounces

April 10th: 1,200,224 ounces

April 14th: 1,073,000 ounces

April 15th: 1,191,275 ounces

April 16th: 1,183,777.295 ounces

This is a huge bout of deliveries in such a short space of time. In fact, within the realm of Comex world, it’s such an exceptionally large amount, that it even creates quite a spike on the long-term chart of JP Morgan’s vault stockpile:

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2015-04-17 17:04:42 i Ekonomi,

Precious metal prices were broadly unchanged this week, confined to a tight trading range of $1210 to $1185 for gold and $16.60 to $16.00 for silver. There were several attempts by sellers to force prices to break down, but from the price action there appeared to be buyers waiting for the opportunity.

Goldmoney gold and silver

The result was that yesterday gold rallied to as high as $1209 and silver to $16.50, though they closed well under these best levels when a senior Federal Open Market Committee member warned that interest rates would not remain at zero for ever. Comex volumes in gold were light though they were better in silver.

Gold's performance in other currencies has been more impressive, especially in euros and sterling shown in the next chart.

Goldmoney gold price 311214

Open interest on Comex in both metals rose over the week, with silver's close to a record high on Wednesday. This is consistent with accumulation on dips and should be viewed as generally positive. Silver's Open Interest is shown in the next chart.

Goldmoney silver 2015

Physical demand for gold continues to be strong, with the news that India imported 125 tonnes in March, while Shanghai Gold Exchange deliveries totalled a further 195 tonnes. Global mine production on a monthly basis is about 250 tonnes, so the markets must have delivered a net 70 tonnes more than this production to satisfy just two Asian sources of demand.

One wonders how much demand from other Asian buyers is also being covered by deliveries from Western vaults. This tight delivery position is at odds with technical trading in paper markets, with gold confined to its current range. Presumably (and this makes sense) western mines are hedging the price by selling for forward delivery, putting a short-term cap on the market.

One of the more intriguing news developments is a joint World Gold Council/Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) meeting this morning in New York to discuss the inclusion of gold in the SDR basket when it is revised later this year. It was agreed in 2010 that the renminbi should be included, but this has never been ratified by the Americans. It is believed by close observers that China's exclusion from the SDR is one of the reasons China set up the Asia Infrastructure Bank rather than pursue the IMF relationship. However, if the proposal to include a weighting for gold in the SDR1 gets any traction at this morning's meeting, it will be interesting to see the reaction from the Americans, given that the Chinese appear to want to incorporate gold into international settlements. It could also provide the Chinese cover for declaring an increase in the gold content of their official reserves.

For what it's worth, the chairman of OMFIF (Lord Desai) is quoted as saying gold's inclusion in the SDR is quite likely to happen. However, there are legal obstacles to overcome.


The Six Too Big To Fail Banks In The U.S. Have 278 TRILLION Dollars Of Exposure To Derivatives

Publicerad 2015-04-15 10:06:16 i Ekonomi,

JPMorgan Chase

Total Assets: $2,573,126,000,000 (about 2.6 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $63,600,246,000,000 (more than 63 trillion dollars)


Total Assets: $1,842,530,000,000 (more than 1.8 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $59,951,603,000,000 (more than 59 trillion dollars)

Goldman Sachs

Total Assets: $856,301,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $57,312,558,000,000 (more than 57 trillion dollars)

Bank Of America

Total Assets: $2,106,796,000,000 (a little bit more than 2.1 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $54,224,084,000,000 (more than 54 trillion dollars)

Morgan Stanley

Total Assets: $801,382,000,000 (less than a trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $38,546,879,000,000 (more than 38 trillion dollars)

Wells Fargo

Total Assets: $1,687,155,000,000 (about 1.7 trillion dollars)

Total Exposure To Derivatives: $5,302,422,000,000 (more than 5 trillion dollars)

Det börjar dra ihop sig i Grekland

Publicerad 2015-04-14 20:54:51 i Ekonomi,

from Zero Hedge:

Despite all the money-printing, bond-buying, ponzi-scheming; the looming reality of a possible Greek default is spreading rapidly across the rest of peripheral European bonds. Greek 3Y bond yields are up 167bps, breaking over 23% today. The last week has seen Italian, Portuguese, and Spanish bond risk rise 12-16bps – a dramatic move off such low Q€-driven bases. Already there is chatter that Spain’s resurgent Podemos party will look to negotiate restructuring their debt, which merely confirms the fact that for all the bluster, EU leaders are scared stiff of the implications of ‘allowing’ Greece to exit.

Intressant möte på fredag

Publicerad 2015-04-14 20:28:00 i Ekonomi,

It's a breakfast meeting to be held Friday in Washington for "a select group of central banks and other official-sector institutions," sponsored by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum and the World Gold Council, to discuss "gold, the renminbi, and the multicurrency system," convened in conjunction with the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group, a United Nations agency:
Is The Price Of Gold Really Headed Above $18,000?

Shemitah året är 2015 så vi kan vänta oss det värsta

Publicerad 2015-04-13 11:51:00 i Ekonomi,

What is the biblical Shemitah Cycle:

  1. Biblical reference, Hebrew calendar.
  2. 7 year cycle
  3. The 7th year is a year of rest (or drop of activity)
  4. A more serious 7th year of rest is the 7th year at the end of seven 7 years cycle (ie the 49 year).
  5. The year of rest (ie 7th year) maybe a minor, medium or major adjustment. No one knows!
  6. 2015 is the 7th year of a Shemitah cycle, and also the end of 7 previous Shemitah cycles (ie the last year of 49 years or 7 Shemitah cycles inclusive). Some call this a Jubilee year.

The five great economic crashes of the last 40 years – 1973, 1980, 1987, 2001 and 2008 – have all occurred in Shemitah years – those God set apart as Sabbath years.

The Sabbatical Cycle. Five 7-Year Cycles: 1980-2015, monthly


Dåliga siffror från Kina. När släpps Yuanen fri.

Publicerad 2015-04-13 11:27:24 i Ekonomi,

 China just announced total carnage in its trade data for March:

Trade Surplus collapses... (economists knew about year-end and forecast +250bn!!!)
As Exports crash and Imports continues to slide for the 5th month...


Egon von Greyerz gästar Kingworldnews

Publicerad 2015-04-10 17:01:03 i Ekonomi,

Massive Gold Buying From The East 

Eric, the buying from the East is continuing at record levels.  In the first three months of 2015, China and India have bought 640 tons of gold in total.  If you extrapolate that figure over the course of a year, it would total more than 2,500 tons.  The purchases of gold by just these two countries is equivalent to the entire annual production of gold.  I feel very confident that this very strong physical demand will lead to the real price of gold going to significantly higher levels in 2015 and in coming years.

KWN Greyerz II 4:10:2015

Bubbles Everywhere

So, Eric, we have bubbles everywhere.  The Russell 2000 is at a historic P/E of 90, and Chinese tech stocks are at a P/E of 220.  The Nasdaq in the year 2000 was at a P/E of 150.  Subsequently the Nasdaq fell by 80 percent.

But Also Opportunities

But at the same time that we witness the most historic wealth destruction over the next few years, there are also the most incredible opportunities to make the returns of a lifetime.  These will primarily be in the precious metals sector.  Many gold and silver stocks will go up by at least 10-times and some a great deal more than that.  The price of physical silver will also go up by 10-times or more.  But the most important wealth preservation asset will of course be physical gold stored outside of the banking system.


Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2015-04-10 16:37:46 i Ekonomi,

This week started well for gold and silver, but it turned out that the peak for both was on Easter Monday, since then, prices have drifted lower.

gold and silver 2015
The news event that initially drove prices higher was the US unemployment statistics for March announced last Friday, which came in 120,000 less than expected with downward revisions for the two previous months totalling a further 69,000.

This was immediately taken as evidence that the Fed would defer interest rate rises until no earlier than September and possibly into 2016. This adds to growing evidence that the US economy may be stalling, but many analysts are still clinging to the hope that disappointing figures are only weather-related. Gold rallied as much as $25 and silver by $0.56, before giving up all these gains by last night. The culprit is renewed dollar strength against a low-interest market background.

For much of the time gold and silver prices hardly moved, a sure sign of lack of interest in the futures markets. Volumes were predictably low, given the Easter break, and if our experience at GoldMoney is anything to go by small sellers predominate over small buyers.

However, Open Interest in Comex futures has begun to pick up again in both metals, as shown in the two charts below.
Gold Open Interest
Silver Open Interest
It is equally possible that the uptick in Open Interest is due to new bull or bear positions being opened. To determine which, the relationship between price and Open Interest will have to be watched carefully, as will movements in the US dollar. For now it should be noted that gold failed to overcome the $1220 level twice in a fortnight, so will have to do some work to absorb supply apparent at that level. In silver's case the supply is established above $17.25. Prospects for next week are too close to call.

One of the reasons behind dollar strength is euro weakness, stemming from uncertainties over Greece. Yesterday Greece paid back a €459m loan to the IMF, but there are serious questions now being asked about her finances from hereon. Unless Greece is bailed out again it seems inevitable she will default, but it is difficult for Germany, for example, to justify further funding when she believes that Greece has failed to stick to the contractual terms entered into by the last government.

Germany also has her problems, with disappointing factory orders, giving more evidence of a global slow-down potentially affecting capital investment. Further confirmation of a slowdown in the Eurozone's engine could undermine the euro further.

Räntetrycket fortsätter söderut

Publicerad 2015-04-09 11:49:01 i Ekonomi,

Not even a month ago, we wrote about how it looked like the market was pricing in two rate hikes in 2015 and four in 2016. Well, apparently a lot has changed (at least regarding expectations) since then. The December fed funds futures is only pricing in about one hike from the current effective fed funds rate. Fed fund futures are pricing in a 36 basis point fed funds rate for the end of 2015. This is about half the level that the market expected for most of 2014.

Unsurprisingly, 2016 fed funds rate expectations have fallen sharply as well. The market is now only pricing in a fed funds rate of 101 basis points by the end of 2016. This implies the market expects only 2 and half rate hikes in 2016. So we have gotten to the point where the market expects the fed funds rate to only be 20 basis points higher by the end of 2016 compared to where the market expected in September 2014 for the fed funds rate to be by the end of 2015. Rate hike expectations continue to be pushed back.

Factory order Tyskland

Publicerad 2015-04-08 12:35:44 i Ekonomi,

Bad news is even better news in Europe. "Core" Germany saw its powerhouse economy suffer the biggest drop in Factory Orders since June (-1.3% YoY) missing expectations for the 2nd month in a row - the first consecutive drop since may 2013 (despite German business confidence rising for the 5th month in a row) as apparently devaluing the EU's currency is not encouraging business.

Kommer vi få se indragna återköp av aktier när Q1 resultaten kommer

Publicerad 2015-04-08 12:27:00 i Ekonomi,

Here is a quick and dirty CapIQ screen looking at the largest S&P companies which have repurchased $2 billion or more in stock in the last 12 months, and whose net debt/EBITDA is dangerously close to the "fallen angel" category. Not surprisingly, the top 20 results feature both IBM and Viacom. Expect many more companies on this list, especially those with higher net leverage, to announce that their stock buybacks are also put on hiatus until further notice, leading to a sudden and sharp air pocket in their stock price.


Rekordhög värdering för aktierna i USA

Publicerad 2015-04-07 16:00:53 i Ekonomi,

"Never, since 1900, have investors been this persistently bullish," warns Wells Fargo's Jim Paulsen.While the 13 previous cautionary signals since 1900 suggesting investor sentiment was too high have not been perfect, they have proved to be fairly good warning signs; and along with "massive overvaluation", and a dramatic "decoupling of markets from economic productivity" this extreme sentiment reading completes the trifecta of flashing red warning signs for US equity markets.

Strike 1... "Massive overvaluation"

Strike 2... "dramatic decoupling of markets from economic productivity"


and finally, Strike 3... "near-record extreme market sentiment"

Alasdair Macleod om värdet på guld

Publicerad 2015-04-04 12:49:31 i Ekonomi,

There is only one way to value gold, and that is to quantify the expansion of the fiat currency in which it is priced.

That is the sole purpose of the Fiat Money Quantity (FMQ), which since I last wrote about it five months ago has increased by $375bn to $13.7 trillion. This is despite the end of quantitative easing, which had been tapered down before being abandoned altogether. The long-term chart of FMQ is shown below.

FMQ chart

FMQ is the total instant-access cash and deposits in the commercial banks plus their reserves at the Fed and the temporary means by which those reserves are changed. Its purpose is to quantify the difference between sound money and fiat currency by including the steps by which gold has been progressively absorbed into the banking system from private ownership and into government vaults via the commercial banks and the Fed. A fuller description can be found here.

The pace of FMQ creation from 2008 continues well above the pre-Lehman crisis trend, and it is now $8,259bn higher than at that time, an increase of 152% in 78 months. Who would have thought that a temporary provision of money and credit to stabilise the financial system in the wake of the Lehman crisis would have developed such permanency?

As a measure of monetary inflation, FMQ differs from more conventional metrics by including liquid bank assets held on the Fed's balance sheet. By including money parked out of sight in this way a truer position is obtained. Critics of this approach say it is double-counting, because bank reserves recorded at the Fed are also recorded at the commercial banks as customer deposits. This is undoubtedly true, but the whole fractional reserve system involves multiple counting of the same underlying money, so it is hardly disqualified on these grounds.

The next chart shows how FMQ has deflated the price of gold, measured in constant 1934 dollars. This was the year that President Roosevelt devalued the dollar from $20.67 to $35 per ounce of gold.

Gold in 1934

The gold price is shown in nominal US dollars and also in constant 1934 dollars adjusted for the increase in FMQ; the disparity between these two prices has widened over the years to $1,211 and $3.91 respectively. The two previous times the adjusted gold price hit these low levels were in April 1971 at $3.31, four months before President Nixon was forced to suspend the Bretton Woods Agreement, and in October 2001 at the start of the last bull market when it got down to $3.45. This time, the higher rate of increase in FMQ suggests the price today is more undervalued than the two previous times on a forward-looking basis[1].

The last chart is of the gold price since the Lehman crisis and in July 2008 constant dollars, when FMQ accelerated above the long-term trend as shown in the first chart.


Gold FMQ Chart

While the nominal price taken in February 2015 was $1211, the adjusted price was $480, representing a 45% fall from the $918 price in July 2008.

In summary, FMQ shows that gold is substantially under-priced in dollars on a long-term value basis. In the past this level of under-pricing has been followed by major price shocks to the upside on both occasions.


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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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