Mera produkter på hyllorna vittnar om sämre efterfrågan och sämre utveckling för den amerikanska ekonomin
According to the Monthly Wholesales Report, inventories were up 6.2 percent in January from a year ago and 0.3 percent from December. Coupled with weak sales data (sales fell by 3.1 percent from December 2014 and 1 percent from January 2014), the inventory to sales ratio increased to 1.35 in January from 1.33 in December 2014. It means that it would take 1.35 months for businesses to clear shelves, the highest inventory-to-sales ratio since July 2009.
Why is data on business inventories so important? The answer is that the changes in the inventory to sales ratio indicate any supply or demand imbalances in the economy. Inventories rise when supply is greater than demand. Inventories rising relative to sales mean that sales fail to meet demand projections. Thus, the inventory to sales ratio usually reaches its cyclical peak in the middle of the recession, when the economy is slowing down. Indeed, please note three things.
First, that inventories of durable goods jumped the most – by 7.7 percent from year ago, which is generally in line with weak data on news orders for durable goods. Second, contrary to the historical declining trend (due to improved inventory management), we are witnessing a gradual rise since 2013 and particularly since the summer of 2014. Actually, the inventory to sales ratio has reached the highest level since the Great Recession (see the chart below). Third, inventories are rising despite low prices. Thus, this indicates week global demand.
Nästan 3 triljoner av skulder i Europa handlas nu med negativ ränta. Hur länge till kan ett kapitalistiskt system handlas med negativ ränta och hur skall detta sluta.
Enligt The Telegraph håller nu banksystemet i Andorra på att fallera. Kommer vi se en Bail In samma som dom nu förbereder i Österrike.
Andorra, the tiny Catalan principality nestling in the foothills of the Pyrenees between France and Spain, tends to conjure up images of scenic ski resorts, medieval churches and duty-free shopping.
The country has for many years enjoyed the benefits of European borders without the restrictions of EU membership, allowing light-touch regulation that has brought in tourism and wealthy expats from its bordering countries.
However, in the last three weeks, the state has been gripped by a banking crisis that threatens to take it to the brink. Bankers have been thrown in jail, savers’ deposits have been restricted, and the country’s government is scrambling to convince powerful regulators thousands of miles away that the country is not a haven for tax evasion.
On Tuesday March 10, the US Treasury Department’s financial crime body, FinCEN, accused Banca Privada d’Andorra (BPA), the country’s fourth-largest bank, of money-laundering. The authority said “corrupt high–level managers and weak anti–money-laundering controls have made BPA an easy vehicle for third–party money-launderers”.
Three senior managers at the bank accepted bribes to help criminals in Russia, Venezuela and China, to funnel money through the Andorran system, according to FinCEN.
The next day, the state took charge of BPA, dismissing three directors. On the Friday, the bank’s chief executive, Joan Pau Miquel, was arrested and detained. Mr Miquel remains in a jail cell in La Comella, the country’s only prison, with a capacity of 145.
At BPA, the Andorran authorities have installed new management. After international banks cut off links, withdrawals were capped at €2,500 (£1,830) a week, a limit many people are maxing out.
Banco Madrid, the Spanish subsidiary of BPA acquired as part of an expansion spree in recent years, filed for administration on Wednesday.
The Andorran government insists that BPA is an isolated case, saying it is committed to transparency and that the rest of the sector is clean. For its sake, it had better be right, but many experts fear this is not the case.
The state’s banks have assets under management 17 times bigger than the economy, and the sector accounts for a fifth of GDP – almost all of the rest is from tourism.
Det som amerikanarna sparar på lägre bensinpriser går till ökade sjukvårdskostnader för Obamacare och inte till mera shopping som många tror.
After rising at an annualized pace of 4.6% and 5.0% in Q2 and Q3, the final Q4 GDP estimate (a number which will still be revised at least 3-4 times in the coming years), slid more than half to 2.2%, the same as the second estimate from a month ago, and below the consensus Wall Street estimate of 2.4%.
Following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes last week, gold and silver have come alive, the gold price rising from a low of $1147 on 18th March to $1200 this morning and silver from $15.46 to $17.00, 4% and 10% increases respectively.
A simple bear squeeze should be accompanied by a decline in Open Interest, because a bear squeeze forces wrong-footed traders to close their loss-making positions. However, Open Interest has been increasing, which it turns out is entirely due to an increase in spreads1. Since Wednesday, Open Interest has declined sharply, which suggests that spread positions have been closed as the April contract runs off the board. This is shown in the next chart.
The presence of spreads, which are neither bullish nor bearish, negates the hope that the recent increase in Open Interest is due to genuine demand. Instead, we must conclude that dollar weakness after a period of significant strength has much to do with the rise. Oil prices have rallied strongly as well, having been oversold, confirming that markets so far appear to be only correcting the moves of the last eight weeks.
However, there are fundamental reasons for a more bullish stance for gold, not least the dawning realisation that the FOMC minutes from last week effectively put off interest rate increases indefinitely. Whatever else is a threat to the world's financial credibility, and you could make a very long list of those, the Fed's admission that for the foreseeable future there is no exit from continuing monetary inflation fully justifies a more positive trend for precious metal prices.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange delivered 53.47 tonnes into public hands last week, making a total of 561 tonnes so far this year, a slight increase on last year.
1 Spreads are matching long and short positions designed to profit from price differentials after financing between different maturities
Den Asiatiska Banken AIIB växer så det knakar nu är det 27 länder som medlemmar. Man undrar hur dollarn ställer sig detta.
Atlanta FED bedömer nu att BNP Q! för USA inte kommer upp till mer än strax över nollan. Man började året med en bit över 2%. Det går fort när det börjar gå utför.
Deutsche Bank Securities Chief International Economist Torsten Sløk sent out a chart today that crisply shows how the Fed is becoming more and more pessimistic as time goes on. You can see the recent projections in the dark blue line.
Chinese rail freight collapses 9.1% YoY; China Manufacturing PMI tumbled back to a contractionary 49.2 - lowest in 11 months; and the Employment sub-index plunged to its lowest since Lehman ... yeah but apart from that, everything is awesome. And for those excited about just how disastrous Chinese data is (and thus how huge the next stimulus unleashing will be), think again - China now sees exactly where the last trillion dollar QE went... a de minimus and unsustained blip in the economy and liquidity-fueled rampage in stocks (which is not what a corruption-crackdown politburo wants to encourage).
Single Whammy: CHINA JAN.-FEB. RAILWAY CARGO VOLUME FALLS 9.1% Y/Y
Double Whammy: China Manufacturing PMI prints 49.2 - lowest in 11 months
Everything is un-awesome...
Triple Whammy: Employment collapses...
Under vecka 10 tog man ut 51 ton guld från SGE vilket tyder på fortsatt stort intresse för fysiskt guld.
Är guldet nästa valuta som investerarna kommer att fly till om dollarn nu toppar ur runt 100 på Dollarindex
Share of income
The middle class is being dismantled by economic forces. More Americans find that they are working in the low wage economy that is booming. For most households income does matter because this is how you finance your life. The Fed has created a system where savers are punished. Negative interest rates punish traditional savings. It makes stocks, junk bonds, and other speculative items seem more lucrative. Those that take on big levels of debt are encouraged. So it is no surprise then that all items financed by debt are suddenly going up in price: housing (mortgages), college (student debt), and cars (auto debt). Yet the larger gains are not trickling down to workers.
Take a look at this chart showing the share of income earned by the top 1 percent:
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement released on Wednesday was notable for deferring interest rate rises to some unspecified time in the future.
It appears the Fed is boxed in, and raising the Fed funds rate would probably only serve to increase excess reserves. If so, the Fed would have to shell out interest payments to the banks at a rate it really cannot afford, given its own balance sheet is geared over 70 times. Markets seem to be slow to understand this problem: if the Fed is unable to raise interest rates (i.e. the Fed funds rate) the dollar itself is at risk.
The immediate effect on precious metal prices was to turn them sharply higher, and Open Interest on Comex has continued to climb. Gold was up a net $16 on the week and silver $0.55. Oversold currencies bounced strongly, but gave back most of their gains yesterday. The set-up is now for a bear squeeze in gold and silver, with the Managed Money category on Comex somewhat short. The chart for gold and its Open Interest is shown below.
Silver has continued to resist moves to the downside, and here the Open Interest has continued its climb as well. Silver has outperformed gold, illustrated in the chart at the head of this report.
Normally falling prices are accompanied by lower Open Interest. The current divergence is therefore indicative of increased buying support, which may be enough to reverse the bear trend of the last three years.
It has been a momentous week, and rarely do so many important events occur. As well as the Fed showing they dare not or cannot raise interest rates, Greece's negotiations with the other Eurozone members are stranded on the rocks of reality. This was the week when markets suddenly realised the UK faces a general election with considerable political risk so sterling was sold heavily. The UK, Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg and Switzerland are queuing up with probably Australia and New Zealand to become members of the Chinese and Russian led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, compromising NATO and Pacific alliances. Unfortunately for American hegemony, the political line-up is following an economic interest, and this is a party to which America does not have an invitation.
If all that is not enough, the London gold fix changes this morning after ninety-six years from a committee to a platform run by the International Commodity Exchange. Participants (the approximate equivalent of market makers) announced so far are Barclays, HSBC, Scotiabank, Société Generale and UBS. It is interesting that the American and Chinese houses are holding back.
GoldMoney's customers sat on their hands ahead of the FOMC announcement, turning buyers after the event, according to our dealing desk.
Wholesale gold bullion deliveries from the Shanghai Gold Exchange amounted to 51.456 tonnes last week, totalling 507.71 tonnes since 1st January.
Svårt att se var tillväxten i USA skall komma från då lönerna inte ökar och det är färre som jobbar.
-39 percent of American workers make less than $20,000 a year.
-52 percent of American workers make less than $30,000 a year.
-63 percent of American workers make less than $40,000 a year.
-72 percent of American workers make less than $50,000 a year.
HY marknaden nu och vid förra kraschen 2008. Gapet skall stängas antingen genom lägre HY räntor eller att S&P skall ned. Det är bara o välja.
Credit sector officials estimated that the flight of deposits yesterday alone amounted to 350-400 million euros, which was some five times higher than the daily average in previous days. They added that Wednesday’s withdrawals totaled the most since an agreement was reached at the February 20 Eurogroup meeting.
Hur skall det här gapet stängas, guldet upp eller FEDs balansräkning kommer att krympa. Det är bara o välja.
This chart compares the monthly percentage growth of the Federal Reserve balance sheet (U.S. Treasuries and Agency MBS) against the price of gold back to 2004.
This chart shows the ratio of the gold price to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base back to 1918. The monetary base roughly matches the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet, which indicates the...
Euron är nu kraftigt översåld kan vi få en rekyl redan på onsdag då FED avvaktar med besked om eventuell räntehöjning.
"The quasi-religious faith that central banks can push stock markets ever higher regardless of real-world realities may well be tested in 2015-2016. The global economy spiraling into recession (a.k.a. a period of slow growth--heh) raises two questions:
1. Can the U.S. economy decouple from the global economy, i.e. keep expanding production, sales, income and payrolls while the rest of the global economy falters?
2. What happens to the U.S. stock market if/when the U.S. follows the rest of the world into recession?"
46 miljoner människor erhåller food stamps i USA. Är verkligen ekonomin på gång som dom påstår i media.
Retail Sales ex Autos fortsätter ned i USA och vi närmar oss nu en klar recession. Kan börsen gå emot en nedgång i ekonomin och kan FED höja räntan.
Börserna i Europa stiger kraftigt då ECBs QE förväntas öka vinsterna. Varför kommer det att bli så inom EU när det inte har lyckats någon annanstans. .
As shown below, its debt to GDP ratio and the size of the BOJ balance sheet have been exploding for decades. Yet these maneuvers have only made matters worse. As also shown below, Japan’s nominal GDP in dollar terms is no higher today than in was in 1996:
This week has been all about currencies, with a weak euro grabbing the headlines.
At one point yesterday morning, the euro was 3% down from last Friday's close, hitting a 12-year low against the US dollar. The yen was also weak, challenging its multi-year low point established last December. However, there are signs that gold and silver are being accumulated in the futures markets, and at GoldMoney we have seen a pick-up in demand for physical gold this week.
Gold fell heavily last Friday by over $35 after overnight prices failed to hold, reflecting a developing bout of dollar strength. Since then gold has drifted sideways to slightly lower by the close last night, a pattern followed by silver. This month, so far, gold is down 4.5% and silver 6.2%.
Since silver tends to move twice as much as gold up or down, this represents a good relative performance for the former.
Given the drubbing precious metals have received recently it is a surprise that Open Interest on Comex for both metals is increasing. The next chart is for gold, where this can be clearly seen.
The only Comex category which appears to be adding to its longs is "Other Reportables", which includes dealers that don't fit into the other defined categories. Otherwise, Money Managers are adding to their shorts and Producers and Merchants are reducing theirs, which is normal for gold in falling markets.
The rise in Open Interest in silver has been more dramatic, which is shown in our next chart.
Open Interest is heading back to new highs. Here again, it is the "Other Reported" category that is going long, together with the "Non-reported" category. It looks like undefinable parties are accumulating long positions.
So what is going on?
When Open Interest accompanies a rising price, it indicates healthy buying is present. Conversely, a falling price, which most of the time is through lack of bids, is usually accompanied by falling Open Interest. The relationship between Open Interest and the price is different at turning points, and it looks like that is what's happening.
Rising Open Interest on a falling price, which is the condition we have here, indicates increased buying support on falling prices, telling us that the price trend is likely to be on the turn. The bullish implication of this new demand is confirmed by silver showing resistance to further price falls relative to gold: silver should have fallen by about 9%.
In other news this morning, deliveries from the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose to 44.52 tonnes for the week ending 6th March. This is more than for the comparable week following New Year in 2014.
‘The Fed could make the price stick by buying gold at $2,950 an ounce and selling it at $3,050, in effect becoming a market maker with a 3.3 per cent band around the target price.
‘If the Fed did this, all other prices including silver, oil, and other commodities would quickly adjust to the new price level causing 150 per cent general inflation — problem solved! Don’t think of this just as an ‘increase’ in the price of gold; it’s really a 60 per cent devaluation of the dollar measured in gold.’
Perhaps that sounds impossible and yet as Mr. Rickards notes: ‘Something similar happened twice in the past 80 years; in 1933-1934 and 1971-1980.’ Will it be different this time? Those were the past two major global financial crises. We are still living in the one that started in 2008.
Bank Of Korea Unexpectedly Cuts Interest Rate To Record Low 1.75%, 24th Central Bank To Ease In 2015
Recession Alarm: Wholesale Sales Plunge Alongside Factory Orders, Worst Since Lehman
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/10/2015 10:13 -0400
For the first time since Lehman, Wholesale Trade Sales dropped for a 3rd month in a row in January. Plunging 3.1% MoM (against -0.5% expectations), this is the biggest drop since March 2009. Excluding auto sales, wholesale sales fell 3.5%. Wholesale inventories rose 0.3% (beating expectations) with only a very modest -0.1% drag from oil.
This has sent the inventory-to-sales ratio soaring as the "Field Of Dreams" economy is back – but as one wise trader noted, we are now 10bps higher in inventory/sales than when we entered the recession in Dec 2007.
But the punchline is the following chart showing the annual change of Wholesale Trade Sales. It does not need much explanation:
Valutakriget fortsätter och bidrar till hög volatilitet vilket kommer att leda till turbulens på andra marknader.
It is a trend of countries intentionally deflating their currencies that economists have dubbed a “currency war.”
Only after the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the days following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, have currencies been more volatile, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist David Woo.
That measure of volatility is based on a gross-domestic-product-weighted range-based index of currencies of the 20 largest economies in the world, which shows this current bout of currency swings as the third highest in 20 years as the included chart illustrates.
“Of course, these two previous episodes were both crisis periods. From this point of view, we can say that currency volatility is the highest for non-crisis periods in twenty years,” the Bank of America strategist said in a note to investors.
Woo cautions that the unintended consequence of this type of insidious currency war could lead to greater volatility which in turn could undermine healthy global trade and investment.