Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gått för guld och silver

Publicerad 2015-05-29 16:37:00 i Ekonomi,

Gold and silver price to May

Markets this week have been all about renewed dollar strength, with precious metals side-lined. The only notable move was when gold lost $20 and silver 40c on Tuesday, following holidays in the US and UK on Monday.

The reason for the sudden fall was the dollar strengthened against the euro, which faces a possible Greek exit, and also the yen for unspecified reasons other than its recent consolidation looks to be over. In the case of the yen, the chart level of ¥123 was comprehensively taken out, clearing the way to a run north of €130 (note that a higher number is a weaker yen).

By early this morning gold had lost a net $15 on the week to $1190, and silver a net 35 cents to $16.75.

Last Tuesday's dollar strength pushed gold and silver lower through support levels at $1200 and $17 respectively; as if they didn't even exist. This may lead to further weakness because of the speculative build-up of positions expecting the support levels to hold. The next chart illustrates the position in silver futures contracts on Comex (the dotted line is the average net longs since 2006).

Managed shorts

This market is now clearly overbought and vulnerable to a correction. However, it is not the whole story, because it appears that US imports of silver have accelerated in recent months, suggesting someone is building a physical position for unknown purposes. Nevertheless, if the dollar continues to strengthen against other currencies there would appear to be astrong possibility silver will weaken further. The position in gold is not as exposed as that of silver, and with Greece running up towards crunch-time in Euroland there is every reason for the longs to stay with it for the moment.

Our last chart is of gold priced in other currencies since the year-end.

Gold price

With gold up only 0.5% in US dollars on the year so far, it has risen 11% in euros, 4% in yen and 2.5% in sterling.
It emerged this week that China's gold mining industry is planning to set up a $16bn gold investment fund, which may invest some of its liquidity in physical gold or gold ETFs. This appears to be an initiative to increase China's domination of the industry on the Eurasian continent, feeding her state-owned refiners. This announcement, coupled with a statement by a senior Russian central banker that Russia is acquiring gold as a reserve asset "free of legal and political risk", points the way to the eventual reintroduction of gold as a stabilising factor for Pan-Asian trading currencies.

Ekonomin går upp och ned

Publicerad 2015-05-27 11:46:03 i Ekonomi,

Corporate profits as a percentage of GDP have averaged 6.3% over the last six decades. They deviate wildly above and below this mean, with peaks attained near stock market highs and valleys at stock market lows. The current level of 8.7% is two standard deviations above the 6.3% long-term average, meaning it is above 95% of all instances in history. Based on history, what are the odds of corporate profits rising to three standard deviations above the mean (99.7% above all instances)? Not good. They have already fallen from the 10.1% high in 2012.
The forward 12 month P/E Ratio, which is always lower because stock analyst “experts” always overestimate earnings, is well above the previous bubble high in 2007.  This P/E Ratio will also revert to its mean over the long-term. In the short-term, P/E ratios will also plunge well below the ten year average of 14.1, just as it did in 2008 and 2011 before the Fed re-inflated them with liberal doses on QE. With the QE spigot turned off, interest rates not going lower, and earnings already falling, all that is left is for prices to adjust to reality. Everything done by our leaders in government, banking and the corporate world since 2008 has been wrong. They’ve done the exact opposite of what needed to be done to purge the system of corruption, mismanagement, reckless use of debt, and the men responsible for destroying our financial and economic system. The public has come to believe these people have saved us, when they have really condemned us to a future of chaos, turmoil, pain, default, debasement, and war. Time will prove those who used reason to be right.

Några röster om marknaden

Publicerad 2015-05-27 11:38:39 i Ekonomi,

• Michael Hartnett of Bank of America Merrill Lynch brings Rod Serling into the mix:

"[investors are] trapped in a Twilight Zone between the end of QE and the Fed's first rate hike. Markets it says will "be cursed by mediocre returns, volatile trading rotation, correlation breakdowns and flash crashes. For this reason we continue to advocate higher than normal levels of cash, adding gold and owning volatility in mid 2015. . . [A]cleansing drop in asset prices cannot be dismissed."

• Saxo Bank's Stephen Jacobsen talks of fundamental changes in asset allocation in coming years:

[Saxo Bank] "rarely makes significant changes to its long-term outlook, but this quarter is different. Not only do we expect a steep increase in yields but higher gold and energy prices too. The dynamics at work are plenty: The model's predictions are always based on the lead-lag of different economic factors. . . .The biggest "news" is that we are very close to the secular low in interest rates globally. This will have material impact on stocks, fixed income and asset allocation over the coming one to five years, and probably an 'upside-down' return profile relative to performance since the financial crisis started. Commodities will outperform and yields will move up by another 100 bps before Europe once again slides to downturn and the US flirts with recession in early 2016.

• UK Nobel Prize winner Andrew Smithers offers a brief but keen insight:

"QE is a very dangerous policy, in my view, because it has pushed asset prices up and high asset prices, we know from history, are very dangerous. It is very strongly indicated by reliable measures that we're looking at a stock market which is something like 80 percent over-priced."

• Universa Investments' Mark Spitznagel pulls no punches in a recent Bloomberg interview:

"The beautiful thing about the business is when the markets get really rich, really overvalued, really distorted like today, the cost of insurance goes way down. There's incredible complacency. People are selling (tail insurance). This is another one of those carry trades that are so popular today. We're back to this Great Moderation. There's a religious belief that the Fed is our savior. And it's priced into the market. We're at an extreme point today. We're as extreme as we've been n the last hundred years except for 2000. . . You can read into that what you want. (The year) 2000 was one of the great bubbles in human history. So here we are today just shy of that. . . Giant liquidity holes are a part of market dynamics. If you think you're going to lean on these buy orders (in order to get out) is the height of naivete." (Excerpts as posted at Zero Hedge)

• Legendary money manager Jeremy Grantham predicts a bust like no other:

"Over the next seven years we think the market will have negative returns. The next bust will be unlike any otherbecause the Fed and other central banks around the world have taken on all this leverage that was out there and put it on their balance sheets. We have never had this before. . .Assets are overpriced generally. They will become cheap again. That's how we will pay for this. It's going to be very painful for investors. . .There is no evidence at all that quantitative easing has boosted capital spending. We have always come roaring back from recessions, even after the mismanaged Great Depression. This time we are not. It's anecdotal evidence, but we have never had such a limited recovery."


Har silvret formaterat sin botten

Publicerad 2015-05-27 11:25:19 i Ekonomi,

It’s important for silver to continue holding above its seven month support at $15.40.  If it then rises and stays above both its old 2013 support and 65 week moving average at $18.50 and $18.20, it’ll start on a bullish path.

Silver could then jump up to the $22 -$24 levels, its next step.  By then, it could clearly test the $30, which would be the following step.

The bottom line is, silver has great potential and it appears to be leading the other metals.

Botnia Exploration har nu fått sitt provbrytnings tillstånd vilket kommer att bevisa höga halter av guld. Har uttalats att det inte kommer att bli någon mera nyemission vilket är mycket positivt.

Publicerad 2015-05-26 14:20:00 i Ekonomi,

Det går att köpa guld på olika sätt. Fysiskt guld i handen är det bästa och säkraste sättet.

Pappersguld är det med störst risk då man inte vet om det finns guld bakom alla underliggande derivat. Det uppskattas att det finns pappersguld till en omfattning om 100 på 1 när det gäller fysiskt guld.

Det smartaste sättet är att köpa guld som man vet ligger i marken och som har höga halter och kan utvinnas på ett enkelt sätt. Nu finns det ett bolag i Sverige som klarar dom förutsättningarna, nämligen Botnia Exploration AB.

Den senaste tiden har det klarnat runt företagets framtida planer och man har fått bekräftat att det finns guld med höga halter och att det även går att utvinnas på det mest enkla och miljövänliga sättet. Företaget har som målsättning att identifiera en mineraltillgång på ca 1 000 000 tr oz och har idag ca 250 000 tr oz klara. Med dagens börsvärde på ca 7 MUSD betalar du som aktieägare ca USD 35 per oz och kommer företaget upp i ca 500 000 tr oz kommer du in under 20 USD per oz.

Att köpa något för ca $35 som har ett marknadspris på ca $1200 och som man idag vet går att framställa på det enklaste, billigaste och mest miljövänliga sättet måste vara det smartaste sättet att köpa guld.

Du är dessutom med på hela uppsidan av guldpriset och behöver inte oroa dig över att det blir stulet då det ligger säkert i marken medan du väntar på att guldet skall stiga till sitt rätta värde.  

Botnia Exploration handlas på Aktietorget och kursen pendlar runt ca 0,7 kronor. Då vi tycker att samtliga portföljer skall ha en andel guld så är det här det enklaste, billigaste och säkraste sättet att försäkra sin portfölj med guld tillgångar.

Man har nu fått tillstånd för provbrytning vilket under sommaren kommer att bevisa fyndighetens höga halter. Dessutom går VD Bengt Ljung ut och lovar att det inte kommer bli någon nyemission utan blir det behov av pengar så kommer det ske på annat sätt. Högst troligt gör man en lösning med något streaming bolag.

Botnia Exploration





Österrike gör nu som Tyskland och Holland och tar hem en del av sitt guld från London.

Publicerad 2015-05-26 13:59:40 i Ekonomi,




Austrian central bank plans to keep 50% of its gold reserves in Austria vs 17% now, Kronen-Zeitung reports, citing governor Ewald Nowotny’s unpublished new “gold strategy.” 

Six months ago we warned that Austria was considering it, and now, as Kronen-Zeitung reports, with no rigged Swiss-like referendum required, Austrian Central Bank Governor, and the person many claim is in Mario Draghi’s inner circle of trust (soon to be revised) Edwald Nowotny has committed to repatriating 110 tonnes of gold. This is part of Nowotny’s new "gold strategy" and with his position (on paper) as one of Draghi’s foremost lieutenants, appears to be a big stab in the back for super money printing Mario. 



Rekord kortningar i silvret och eftersom det är options lösen idag så måste guldet under $1200 och silvret under $17

Publicerad 2015-05-26 13:46:44 i Ekonomi,

Eight non-silver producing speculators, euphemistically classified as commercials by the CME and CFTC, hold more than 376 million oz of equivalent silver net short in COMEX futures according to the current COT report, the most in six years. That’s the equivalent of more than 47% of total world mine production according to the CPM Group (790 million oz) and  more than 42% of the 877 million oz reported by GFMS (why there are such disparities in world silver production is beyond me – I don’t trust either organization).

The one key feature which I have long identified as at the core of the silver manipulation - the concentrated short position on the COMEX - has just rocketed to a multi-year record extreme on an anemic silver rally to just over $17 an ounce, a level at which most primary silver miners can’t turn a profit. What kind of madness is this? - Silver analyst Ted Butler: 23 May 2015

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Alasdair Macleod om veckan som gick för guld och silver

Publicerad 2015-05-25 12:44:25 i Ekonomi,

GoldMoney gold and silver v $

Gold and silver rallied strongly last Friday and into Monday's overnight trading (UK time) before spending the rest of the week drifting lower from initial highs to consolidate above notional support at $1200 and $17 respectively. As of first thing this morning, UK time in US dollars gold is now up 2.2% and silver 10.2% on the year.

From observing price action, there appears to be continuing underlying physical demand, and on Wednesday the Russian Central Bank confirmed that it had taken the opportunity of sub-$1200 prices to add 300,000 ounces of gold to their official reserves last month. It is also reasonable to suggest that in times of increasing economic and systemic tensions in the Eurozone, some central banks will swap euros for gold to rebalance their reserves.

The Fed released April's Open Market Committee minutes on Wednesday, which on balance was little more than another holding operation on interest rates, not bringing them forward to June or putting them off to next year. Apart from some minor volatility on their release there has been little effect on precious metal prices.

The next chart is of the gold price in the other three major currencies since 31 December 2014.

GoldMoney gold price

In terms of gold prices, the best performance has been in weakening euros with gold up 11.4% so far this year. The European central Bank announced it would look to accelerate its bond purchases in the short-term, leading currency markets to conclude that economic conditions in the Eurozone are weaker than expected, and with the deteriorating Greek situation euro weakness should come as no surprise.

Finally, it is worth drawing attention to developments on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, where first Hanergy Thin Film fell 47% on Wednesday, wiping $18.6bn off its capitalisation before trading was suspended. This was followed yesterday by a similar collapse in share price for Goldin Financial (Hanergy's broker) and Goldin Properties, together wiping out a further $16.6bn.

These events are typical ahead of a speculative blow-off in markets, and while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index appears to have risen broadly in line with major equity markets, other smaller markets in the region reflect excessive speculation. For example, on the Shenzen Market equities are trading at an average of 67 times earnings, having risen by 12% this week alone, and there are instances of new listings rising more than ten or twenty times in less than a month of trading.

Therefore, there is a growing risk that Hong Kong and Chinese equities could become a financially destabilising risk in the region and possibly further afield, adversely affecting other markets and potentially precious metal demand.


Vem köper silver i USA???????????

Publicerad 2015-05-14 12:02:23 i Ekonomi,

Not only did U.S. silver bullion imports increase this year…. they surged 44% to 838 mt:
If we go over all the data, there doesn’t seem to be a satisfactory explanation for large increase of U.S. silver bullion imports in the first two months of the year, unless someone is stockpiling silver for various reasons.

U.S. Silver Bullion Imports 2014 vs 2015

Greklands dagar är räknade

Publicerad 2015-05-13 18:01:47 i Ekonomi,

The saga (or drama, if you like) in Greece is continuing and even though the country was able to make a 200M EUR interest payment to the IMF earlier this week, markets shouldn’t be too optimistic just yet as that payment is less than 5% of the total cash amount it has to pay in the next 4-5 weeks.

Indeed, Greece has just 3 days left to find 750M EUR to meet the requirement of a principal payment to the IMF which is due next Tuesday, and we consider it to be quite impossible for the country to meet this demand without finding additional sources to generate cash from.

There’s little doubt the 200M EUR was mainly funded by Athens’ radical request whereby the public agencies were ordered to wire the majority of their cash resources back to the central government in Athens. This was a very clear indication the Greek treasury was running on fumes as it could not afford to pay the salaries of government employees so there’s little hope the country will be able to repay the 750M EUR to the IMF next week without reaching a new bailout deal with its lenders.


Greklands dagar är testade har en månad på sig och reda upp kontona.

Publicerad 2015-05-12 16:58:01 i Ekonomi,

Greece tapped emergency reserves in its holding account at the IMF in order to make a 750 million euro payment to the Fund on Monday meaning that, as predicted, the IMF is now paying itself. Athens has one month to replenish the account. Meanwhile, the Fund has indicated it wants no part of another Greek bailout. And just to confirm how terminal the situation for Greece is, MarketNews just reported thatGreece now has a paltry €90 million in cash reserves left. The end of the world's most drawn out tragicomedy is finally nigh.

John Williams om USAs ekonomi

Publicerad 2015-05-11 16:17:03 i Ekonomi,

The latest from John Williams’

- Weakening Economy Taking Toll on U.S. Dollar  
- Labor Data Seriously Flawed and Likely Gimmicked  
- April Full-Time Civilian Employment Dropped by 252,000  
- Net of Revisions, April Payroll Gain of 223,000 Was 184,000; March Headline Jobs Gain of 126,000 Revised to 85,000  
- Decline in Headline April Unemployment to 5.4% Was a Rounding Game, Easing from 5.47% to 5.44%, and Otherwise Not Consistent with March  
- April 2015 Unemployment: 5.4% (U.3), 10.8% (U.6), 23.0% (ShadowStats)  
- Annual Growth in April 2015 Money Supply M3 Slowed to 5.4%, from 5.7% in March and from February’s 5-Year High of 5.8%


Saxat från Kingworldnews

Publicerad 2015-05-11 15:55:00 i Ekonomi,

The War In Gold And Silver

The central bank computers, driven by their algorithms, continue to exercise a dampening effect on the prices for gold and silver. Investors should consider what JP Morgan is reportedly doing. If the reports are correct, JP Morgan has been amassing a horde of silver greater than Warren Buffet’s foray into silver ownership and the Hunt episode in the late 1970s, combined. JP Morgan must have a very solid reason for doing so. Long-term investors should tag along and continue to build up positions in both metals as well as the miners. 



“The $4,700 gold projection is a delta long-term #1 target, which is where the biggest moves take place.  This chart below also shows that there have been three major turning points so far in gold’s 16-year bull market.  


KWN Rosen I 5:8:2015

You can see the first buy point that was triggered in the gold market in 1999 at $253.  You can also see where the sell point was triggered right near the high of $1,923.70.  But now we have a buy signal that has been triggered at $1,141.60 — the second major buy signal of the secular bull market in gold.

Schweiziska centralbanken köper aktier i USA så det är inte bara återköpen av aktier som håller kurserna uppe. Undrar om det Schweiziska folket vet vad centralbanken gör med deras pengar. Det var inte länge sedan dom röstade mot guldet som bas i portföljen nu har dom högt värderade aktier i stället. Känns tryggt.

Publicerad 2015-05-07 20:17:00 i Ekonomi,

As we noted last week, that amounts to around $100 billion — 15% of Switzerland’s GDP — in equities. This prompted us to praise the bank for its sheer brazenness in owning up to its equity holdings in a world where all plunge-protection-providing central banks are buying stocks but in which no one dares to admit it. 

Lyssna om Dow Theory

Publicerad 2015-05-06 11:18:00 i Ekonomi,


The K-wave is a 60-year cycle (+/- a year or so) with internal phases that are sometimes characterized as seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter:

  • Spring phase: a new factor of production, good economic times, rising inflation
  • Summer: hubristic 'peak' war followed by societal doubts and double digit inflation
  • Autumn: the financial fix of inflation leads to a credit boom which creates a false plateau of prosperity that ends in a speculative bubble
  • Winter: excess capacity worked off by massive debt repudiation, commodity deflation & economic depression. A 'trough' war breaks psychology of doom.
kondratieff waves us 1789 to 2007

Valutakriget pågår för fullt. Svårt att se en starkare dollar med tanke på USAs handelsbalans.

Publicerad 2015-05-06 11:10:58 i Ekonomi,

Remember that in a beggar thy neighbor world, where currency warfare has once again broken out between the US, Europe and Japan, for every winner there is a loser. In this case, the loser is the one country that has decided that a strong currency is a great thing for its economy (if only for the time being): that would be the US.

Why is this relevant? Because as the chart below shows, US trade excluding Petroleum, just crashed to $43.7 billion, the worst print in the history of the series, suggesting that portrayals of the US as a resurgent export powerhouse are completely erroneous, and that instead the US is as big a net importer of goods and services (and soon to be oil) as ever.



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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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