Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Får vi se samma resa för guldet som under senare delen av 70-talet

Publicerad 2015-10-30 10:41:09 i Ekonomi,

Examine the graph of average monthly gold prices Jan. 1970 – Sept. 1976.  Compare it to the graph of gold prices from April 2002 – October 2015.  Note that the second graph was prepared with the same number of data points, but the time scale was doubled – each point is a two month average price.  Note the similarity in form.  The first is scaled $0 to $200 and the second $0 to $2,000.

BNP för Q3 i USA något under förväntan 1,5% då lagren måste säljas ut och det kommer behövas mer utförsäljning för att inte hyllorna skall svämma över

Publicerad 2015-10-29 15:22:00 i Ekonomi,

The biggest factor for the drop in GDP was what we had been warning for a while, namely inventories, which tumbled from a boost of 0.02% in Q2 to a negative 1.44% in Q3 - the biggest drop since Q4 2012, as the nominal contribution from inventories slid from $127.5 billion to just $62.2 billion. While this may seem like an inventory normalization, it was still an addition to GDP - recall that during the financial crisis, Inventories subtracted a whopping $718 billion from GDP over 8 consecutive quarters. At some point, that same liquidation cycle which can only be delayed so long, will take place once again.

Svarta pisten för frakter från Kina

Publicerad 2015-10-28 10:36:45 i Ekonomi,

The latest weekly reading dropped another 1.7% from the prior week to 752.21, the worst level ever. The CCFI is now 30% below where it had been in February this year and 25% below where it had been 17 years ago at its inception.

Lyssna på John Rubino

Publicerad 2015-10-25 19:01:08 i Ekonomi,

John Rubino of has a lot to say on how the dollar is making it tough for U.S. companies to compete in the global marketplace, what he sees ahead for silver, and some of the key drivers that may propel the white metal to new highs in the years ahead.

Guld och silver håller sig just nu runt många intressanta tekniska nivåer

Publicerad 2015-10-19 11:47:00 i Ekonomi,

The gold market is only one collapsed US stock market rally away from a new bull market if you follow the ninety-week moving average for the gold price as shown in the chart below. According to the critical point to watch for on this chart is $1,227 an ounce for gold.

Impressively the precious metal was just $38 shy of this mark on Thursday night. The ninety-week moving average has been a very reliable indicator in the past…


What would boost gold higher in terms of market fundamentals? We think it might well be a faltering of the recent mini-rally in US stocks which is based on bad news keeping interest rates down. This is not really good news for profits, and very vulnerable to yet more bad news from the US economy and, or the rest of the world.

Gold would then move in the opposite direction as a safe haven, and get a further boost from the greatly diminished possibility of higher interest rates any time this side of the US Presidential Election next autumn.

And once the ninety-day moving average is breached then it could be chocks away for a big take-off in the gold price. This now looks tantalizingly close.


Lager uppbyggnad håller BNP uppe i Kina precis som i USA. Någon gång måste dessa lager reas ut med lägre BNP siffror än vad marknaden förväntar sig.

Publicerad 2015-10-19 11:34:00 i Ekonomi,

Forget the false GDP numbers out today showing just a 0.1 per cent slowdown in Chinese GDP growth, and look instead at the burgeoning inventories across the nation that tell the true story of a boom gone bust. Don’t forget the stock market crash this summer and sudden devaluation of the yuan. This is an economic nightmare that will now take years to shake off, and is far from over.

Both China’s manufacturing and real estate sectors are suffering from excessively high inventory. CNBC’s Eunice Yoon has more…


USA på väg in i recession och vad kan FED göra för att vända trenden. Negativ ränta och trycka pengar.

Publicerad 2015-10-15 13:26:03 i Ekonomi,

This is the longest period in the history of the Fed’s existence, lasting longer than even the 1938-1942 period of ZIRP.

 And the US economy is moving back into recession. Consider that…

 1)   Industrial production fell five months straight in the first half of 2015. This has never happened outside of a recession.

 2)   Merchant Wholesalers’ Sales are in recession territory.

 3)   The Empire Manufacturing Survey is in recession territory.

 4)   All four of the Fed’s September Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) readings (Philadelphia, New York, Richmond, and Kansas City) came in at readings of sub-zero.This usually happens when you are already 4-5 months into a recession. (H/T Bill Hester)



USD Index vid support nivå samtidigt som vi ser "death cross"

Publicerad 2015-10-15 13:01:24 i Ekonomi,

For the first time since September 2013, The USD Index just signalled a "death cross." Three of the last four times that the 50-day moving-average crossed below the 200-day moving-average, The USD Index tumbled significantly.

USD chart

The U.S. dollar index had a nice run during the back half of 2014 and early 2015, but the rally has lost stream. In fact, the USD has put in a series of lower highs since peaking at 100 during March. There is technical support around the current level, but plenty of downside ahead should this support level fail. The RSI is pointed lower with room to drop a bit more before becoming oversold.

Vem köper aktier i en sån här ekonomisk utveckling

Publicerad 2015-10-14 12:35:00 i Ekonomi,

Global trade is also declining at an alarming pace. According to the latest data available in June the year on year change is -8.4%. To find periods of equivalent declines we only really find recessionary periods. This is an interesting point. On one metric we are already in a recession. As can be seen in Chart 3 on the following page, global GDP expressed in US dollars is already negative to the tune of USD 1,37trn or -3.4%. That is, we are already in a dollar recession. 

Here is the chart that Zero Hedge posted along with the quote above.  As you can see, the only time global GDP expressed in U.S. dollars has fallen faster in recent years was during the horrible recession of seven years ago…

HSBC Chart



Guldet kommer möjligen bryta igenom dess nivåer nu när dollarn trendar nedåt

Publicerad 2015-10-14 12:11:15 i Ekonomi,


Scenario A: If gold bulls succeed in an upside breakout above the Aug. 24 high and the 200-day moving average –it would open the door for a strong rally wave. The next key upside chart objective lies at the $1,206-$1,207 per ounce region, the early and mid-June highs for gold.

Scenario B: If the $1,170 resistance ceiling holds firm, gold will be vulnerable to a short-term period of "backing and filling" in the wake of the recent strength. Initial support lies at $1,135.90 with strong swing low support at $1,103.80.

Bottom line: Gold has rallied to a significant technical juncture. Action around the $1,170 zone will be an important clue about near term direction for the yellow metal and if the recent rally has enough legs to continue.

US Junk Bonds räntor fortsätter att ticka uppåt vilket inte brukar vara någon bra signal för ekonomin

Publicerad 2015-10-13 11:09:57 i Ekonomi,

  • The simple view is that the trend of rising yields has accomplished the second breakout from a cyclical low.
  • This could be equivalent to the second breakout accomplished at 9.22% on November 16, 2007. Some three weeks after the high for the S&P.
  • This breakout was set at 7.71% on Friday. It is now at 7.98%.
  • The high on the last crisis was 23.26% set on December 15, 2008. 

Kinas import fortsätter att försvagas samtidigt som Baltic Dry index är på mycket låga nivåer vilket indikerar att Kina är i en nedåtgående ekonomi vilket kommer att påverka världsekonomin

Publicerad 2015-10-13 10:57:05 i Ekonomi,

After an initial knee-jerk reaction (perhaps on better-than-expected exports - signalling perhaps the devaluation 'worked), AsiaPac stocks are tumbling rapidly as the 11th monthly decline in imports (down a stunning 17.7% YoY in Yuan terms) signaling significant domestic weakness (and thus a larger drag on global growth).

As Bloomberg reports,

Even as stocks have soared in the last 10 days, The Baltic Dry shows no signs of a pick up in freight traffic demand, instead quite the opposite.


Ser vi botten för räntorna i USA

Publicerad 2015-10-12 11:54:46 i Ekonomi,

The chart below shows annual yields for Treasuries, investment-grade (AAA) municipal bonds, and investment-grade (AAA) corporate bonds. “Investment-grade” means the company that issued the bond is in good financial shape.

The green bars show the average yield for each bond in 2008. The blue bars show their current yields.

All three assets are widely thought of as safe. They’re very popular with retirees and other income investors. Right now, each bond is yielding half of what it paid seven years ago.

Since 2008, the yield on 10-year Treasuries has declined 44%. The yield on 10-year corporate bonds has declined 50%. And the yield on municipal bonds has declined 45%.

Ser inte speciellt lovande ut

Publicerad 2015-10-07 14:44:00 i Ekonomi,

That dynamic is:

1)   The global economy is contracting with former engines for growth (Emerging Market economies, particularly China) growing little if at all.

2)   Financial markets continuing to rally/ hold up in hope of additional monetary measures by Central Banks.

Regarding #1, the recent spate of economic data is absolutely awful:

1)   In China, the official growth numbers suggest GDP is growing by 7.3%, however…

China’s electricity consumption suggests GDP growth is 3% at best.

China’s rail freight volume for the first eight months of 2015 fell 10.1% from the comparable period in 2014.

China’s monthly Caixin PMI reading has fallen to levels not seen since March 2009: when everyone thought the world was ending.

August exports fell 5.5% year over year following an 8.9% collapse in July (exports account for 30% of China’s GDP).

Let’s now turn to Japan, where the largest QE program in history was launched in April 2013, only to be increased in October 2014. This was a Keynesian dream come: an amount of spending equal to 25% of GDP.

2)   Since that time, Japan experienced an uptick in economic growth for two quarters before turning back down again. Which brings us to today.

Japan’s GDP shrank at an annualized pace of 1.2% in 2Q15.

Industrial production fell 0.5% in August, after falling 0.6% in July, indicating that Japan is in a technical recession (the country’s second in as many years).

Consumer prices fell 0.1% in August, marking the first drop in two years…suggesting a return to deflation.

So that’s the second and third largest economies in the world teetering on the verge of recession… but what about the largest economy, the US?

3)   In the US…

Industrial production declined in the first five months of 2015. This has ALWAYS coincided with a recession. Currently it is showing zero growth year over year.

As Barclay’s research recently revealed, US corporate profit margins have declined 60 basis points, a reading that has coincided with a recession five of the last six times it triggered.

All four September PMIs recorded sub-zero readings, which only occurs when the US economy is already five to six months into a recession.

Both Regional Manufacturing Surveys and Merchant Wholesaler Sales, imply a recession.

So, the world’s three largest economies, the US, China and Japan are all approaching if not already in recession. These countries represent nearly a third (29%) of global GDP approaching,

Anyone who thinks that somehow this will not impact the rest of the globe is out of his or her mind.

What’s particularly strange is the fact that the markets continue to hold up on investors’ beliefs that this recent spate of bad news will inspire Central Banks to launch more QE programs.

This viewpoint overlooks the fact that the above recessionary data is occurring after Central Banks have cut interest rates over 600 times and spent over $15 TRILLION.

Indeed, China, Japan, and the US’s Central Banks were the biggest money printers in the world. And yet here we are with all three back in recession. And even more disturbing is the fact that their respective financial markets are collapsing DESPITE more money printing.

China’s stock market bubble has burst… despite China’s Central Bank spending $236 BILLION trying to prop it up (this is the equivalent to over 10% of China’s stock market float).

The same is true for Japan, where the Nikkei has collapsed DESPITE the Bank of Japan spending 60-70 trillion Yen per year.

In short... the next round of the Crisis is here: the round in which Central Banks lose control of the system and the markets collapse. 

Marknaderna går upp då man väntar sig samma medicin som givits tidigare av FED. Frågan är om inte börsen måste ned ordentligt innan man vågar trycka på knappen för nya dollar. Beakta att det är valår nästa år i USA och dagens monetära politik har inte utjämnat inkomstklyftorna utan ökat dessa ordentligt.

Publicerad 2015-10-06 10:39:33 i Ekonomi,

Historically this has been THE line for bull markets. We sliced through it like a hot knife through butter last month. The market has done this twice in the last six years. Both times it was saved by a new Fed policy: QE 2 and Operation Twist, respectively.



However, this time around, the Fed's hands are tied by the fact that it is in the political cross hairs: ample research has shown that QE increases wealth inequality... and we're approaching a Presidential election in the US.

Konjunkturen i världen är snabbt på väg åt fel håll vilket har medfört nedrevideringar av företagens vinstutsikter. En global recession med noll ränta och Centralbanker som har tryckt triljoner med nya pengar bådar inte gott.

Publicerad 2015-10-06 10:32:00 i Ekonomi,

So this is a global thing.

It has not primarily been triggered by the strong dollar, but by a global slowdown in revenues caused by a global slowdown in demand.

The last two times that earnings of the S&P 500 companies reached this point – in Q1 of 2001 and in Q4 2007 – the US was already in a recession.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which decides when a run-of-the-mill downturn becomes an official recession, hadn’t acknowledged the recessions at the time, but it did so later on. The same will be true during the next official recession. We’ll be told only after it’s too late.

This chart by Economics and Strategy at Bank National Financial shows how earnings growth for the S&P 500 companies, as measured by 12-month trailing earnings, has sharply deteriorated, and by Q2 was barely above zero. This is slightly higher than the FactSet numbers for Q2 (-0.7%). For the companies in the MSCI AC index, earnings shrank by 7%. I added the green and blue parallel lines, the arrows, and the red circles to highlight what was going on when the prior two earnings debacles hit: the beginnings of the 2001 recession and the glorious Financial Crisis:



Bill Hester recently noted, all four of the Fed’s September Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) readings (Philadelphia, New York, Richmond, and Kansas City) came in at readings of sub-zero. This ONLY happens when you are already 4-5 months into a recession.




IMF varnar för EMs höga skulder

Publicerad 2015-10-01 11:11:12 i Ekonomi,

The International Monetary Fund has warned that corporate debts in emerging markets reached the unbelievable sum of $18 trillion last year, up from just $4 trillion a decade earlier as the low interest rates that followed the global financial crisis produced a bonanza of cheap money, inflating one of the largest bubbles in economic history.

In its latest Financial Stability Report the IMF counsels strongly against a rise in US interest rates that it warns would trigger a wave of emerging market business failures and a severe liquidity squeeze that would devastate global financial markets.



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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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