Med ett år av Super Marios nytryckta Euros har vi fortfarande deflation inom EU och det kommer inte att vända förrän dom tryckt så mycket pengar så värdet sjunker snabbt med förlorat förtroende.
The last time Europe had at least two consecutive months of deflation was in late 2014/early 2015 when the ECB launched its sovereign QE, and when prices staged a modest rebound into the rest of the year. One year later, it's more of the same, and as Eurostat revealed earlier today, after a headline price drop of -0.2% in February, March prices declined once more, this time by -0.1% in line with expectations, driven by a -8.7% plunge in energy prices.
FED måste ändra riktningen på kurvan för velocity av pengar. Då dom endast tror att negativa räntor och pengatryckning kan få detta att hända så dagens värde på fiat pengar kommer att urholkas i snabb takt. Köp Guld.
Mycket stor efterfrågan på silver samtidigt som Bullion Bankerna pressar priset med rekordmycket försäljning av pappers silver. Vi har sett det förut och i slutet av 2005 hade vi samma situation vilket medförde att priset dubblades på mycket kort tid.
Har vi sett botten för inflation i USA och att FED inte hänger med i svängarna och måste dra i handbromsen
Enligt Forbes så har vi här 7 länder som sitter i skuld fällan ordentligt. Notera Sveriges snabba skuldöknings takt vilket kommer sluta med att skuldbomben exploderar.
Är det här tillfället då arbetsmarknaden på fredag visar siffror som stämmer överens med verkligheten eller kommer man fortsätta rigga siffrorna då det är valår
Company earnings, a key driver of business spending and employment, tumbled in the fourth quarter and history shows that when they retreat, the economy often follows.
För den som bedömer att GAAP är rätt sätt att beräkna vinsterna bör nog sälja S&P 500 på runt 23 i P/E tal
Många års pengatryckning och nu negativ ränta i Japan bidrar inte till någon bättre ekonomi. Undrar när CB i våran del av världen skall börja fatta vad som händer.
Just one more cut in rates more negative and just a little more ETF buying and bond purchases and we are sure the Japanese will start spending as wages rise... 4th monthly decline in a row and absent the tsunami and tax-hike reaction, this is the worst drop since Dec 2010...
Saudiarabien känner nu av det låga oljepriset med högre ränta och lägre tillväxt för penningmängden. Känns inget vidare då Saudi är mitt inne i ett oroligt område.
For example, 2015 turned out to be a record year for total U.S. and Indian silver imports. Combined U.S. & Indian silver imports didn’t just surpass the previous record set in 2014… IT SMASHED IT by 20%:
Another record silver factor that occurred in 2015 were Official Silver coin sales. Not only didOfficial Silver coin sales hit 130 Moz in 2015, it surpassed the previous record set in 2011 (116.4 Moz) by a hefty 12%:
One more thing. I don’t know if you all noticed in the first chart, but according to the data put out by the World Metals Statistics, they show a slight decline in global silver production in 2015:
Kostnaden för att hedga sina pund positioner har ökat kraftigt då det blir mer o mer troligt med en Brexit
Examine the silver (times 700) to DJIA ratio over the past 30 years. This excludes the 1980 bubble in which the ratio peaked many times higher than the 2011 ratio.
- The 30 year ratio shows long term trends of investor preference for paper assets, such as the DJIA, versus hard assets such as silver.
- Silver prices and the ratio hit a multi-decade low in November 2001, as indicated by a green oval.
- The ratio is only slightly higher in 2016, as indicated by the other green oval.
- There is considerable room for the ratio to increase, which would probably involve a somewhat lower DJIA and a much higher price of silver.
Återköpen av aktier i USA går nu in i en period där det inte är tillåtet. Frågan många ställer sig vem skall hålla börsen under armarna.
Buybacks, which reached a monthly record in February and have surged so much they make up about 2 percent of daily volume, are customarily suspended during the five weeks before companies report quarterly results, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. With the busiest part of first-quarter earnings seasons beginning in April, the blackout is getting started now.
Blombergs uppskattning av kostnaden för den givmilda svenska invandrings politiken. Var det någon som trodde på skattesänkningar de närmaste åren.
Kina börjar året med ett stort tapp i ny försäljningen av bilar samtidigt som världens lager av bilar fortsätter att öka i förhållande till försäljningen vilket tillsammans med övriga detaljhandelns höga lagersiffror vittnar solklart om att vi fortsätter in i en recession
Precious metal prices eased ahead of this week's 2-day FOMC meeting, which ended on Wednesday.
Gold had drifted $30 lower before recovering it all in a matter of minutes on Wednesday afternoon EST, after the rate decision was announced. The FOMC decided not to raise rates, despite a pick-up in core inflation and employment figures, indicating the FOMC's targets had been satisfied. It was the prospect of the Fed's dual mandate being met that had
persuaded observers, the majority of which agreed that a rise in interest rates would be deferred, that the odds of a rise next month should shorten. That prospect appears to have receded as well.
In the wake of the FOMC's rate decision, the dollar weakened sharply against all major currencies. Markets have suddenly come alive to inflation risk, with core CPI rising in recent months to 2.3%. Consider this leading price-inflation indicator together with the Fed's reluctance to tighten, and it is obvious why the dollar should suffer.
Gold rose by $30 on the week to trade at $1259 in early London trade this morning, and silver by $1.40 to $16.05. Silver's rise yesterday (Thursday) and in early London trading this morning stands out, and it is making new highs for this year. As can be seen in the introductory chart it has caught up some of the lost ground compared with gold. So at long last, silver is showing better relative strength, with the gold/silver ratio dropping below 80 to 78.5.
The most likely explanation for silver's sudden spurt is a combination of poor market liquidity and a revival in demand for industrial metals. Copper rose strongly as well, and from the mid-January low the price has risen by over 18%. Nickel and iron ore prices have also risen strongly. The rise in industrial metal prices was wholly unexpected in western capital markets, and may be due in part to unexpected Chinese demand, as stockpiled dollars are dumped in favour of stockpiling key metals.
The strength in industrial metal prices, as well as that of crude which is up 50% in five weeks, augers well for precious metals in the coming weeks. The general tone of the market feels positive, even though gold was subdued following its post-FOMC spurt. However, while the bullion banks take every opportunity to close some of their bear positions, they have been unable to spook the bulls. The chart below is of gold's open interest on Comex, and it can be seen how changes in open interest correlate to price movements.
This is normal bull market behaviour. It should also be noted that for the second week in a row, open interest has set new records of over 500,000 contracts, indicating the underlying buying power in the market.
It has transpired that Munich Re, the large German reinsurer, is adding to its holding of physical gold. It should be noted that insurance companies and pension funds are badly impacted by negative interest rates, and in the case of Munich Re it will have significant exposure not only to the Eurozone, but also Japan, Switzerland and Scandinavia. While Munich Re has a history of diversifying its portfolio into investments such as physical gold, it is reasonable to expect other insurers and also pension funds to follow it, as long as bond yields remain supressed at current levels.
Finns bara en köpare på börsen och den gruppen går nu in i en period då det är förbjudet att köpa tillbaka aktier.
Norge sänker räntan med 25 punkter och det är bara en tidsfråga innan vi har en ny medlem i NIRP klubben
Det är inte svårt att se att det är valår i USA och det kommer vara mycket bra siffror för arbetsmarknaden fram till valet i november
the inventory-to-sales ratio for the entire economy is now at 1.40X—–a ratio last recorded in May 2009.
As Zero Hedge so aptly put it:
“Look at this chart!”
German reinsurer Munich Re is boosting its gold and cash reserves in the face of the punishing negative interest rates from the European Central Bank, it said on Wednesday.
The world's largest reinsurer is far from alone in seeking alternative investment strategies to counter the near-zero or negative interest rates that reduce the income insurers require to pay out on policies.
Munich Re has held gold in its coffers for some time and recently added a cash sum in in the two-digit million euros, Chief Executive Nikolaus von Bomhard told a news conference.
"We are just trying it out, but you can see how serious the situation is," von Bomhard said.
The ECB last week cut its main interest rate to zero and dropped the rate on its deposit facility to -0.4 percent from -0.3 percent, increasing the amount banks are charged to deposit funds with the central bank.
ECB policy has caused financial market interest rates to fall, reducing the return that insurance companies can earn from investments in bonds, hurting profit and raising concerns about their ability to meet future promises to policyholders.
Gold and Silver will thrive – as paper assets are increasingly infected by financial viruses.
Återköpen av aktier håller index uppe och nu går vi in i perioden då företagen inte får köpa tillbaka aktier. Vem skall då hålla uppe marknaden?
Following the recessionary surge in Wholesale Inventories-to-Sales ratio, this morning's Total Business inventories-to-sales rose to 1.40x - the highest since May 2009. With a 0.4% slump in sales and 0.1% rise in inventories, the smell of recession lays heavy on US businesses... but then again - who cares if Draghi can keep buying 'assets' and saving the world?
Look at this chart!
Stor ökning av guld i ETF fonderna samtidigt som HF ligger lång. Det är bankerna som ligger korta och det är dom som säljer ned guldet med sina nakna blankningar för att täcka sig en bit ner och tjäna stora pengar. Helt otroligt att detta kan fortgå. Finns inga marknader bara manipulationer från dom stora bankerna som äger FED och är därmed världens största insiders.
Highest Reading = March 2000. The S&P 500 fell 43.40% over the next three years.
Second Highest Reading = January 2015. The S&P 500 has fallen 7% since (13 months).
Third Highest Reading = September 1968. The S&P 500 fell 1.70% over the next three years.
The most recent Chicago PMI reading of 42.9 has never been this low outside of a recession.
At October-end, the sector recorded one of the highest P/S ratios ever. Only the two-year window of the dot-com bubble produced higher readings.
When margins shrink, business activity contracts. Businesses cut budgets and jobs. Recessions typically follow. Stock prices tend to fall more than 10% in recessions.
Centralbankerna fortsätter att trycka ned priset för guld men möjligen är 2016 året då dom inte kan fullfölja sin uppgift utan måste ge upp och låta guldet få återgå till sin uppåtgående trend
Obligations priserna har stigit stadigt i 35 år vilket gjort det möjligt att öka statens skulder i USA.
Despite a sharp run-up over the last two months, gold's consolidation of previous strength has been a three-week sideways affair.
Gold's price started the week at $1260 and as of this morning (Friday 0800 London time) was $1271, after trading as high as $1282 overnight. Silver moved from $15.58 to $15.64 at the same time. For gold, the three-week consolidation of the previous rise now appears to be complete.
The technical position has improved sharply, and chartists will generally be enthusiastic. I describe the current bullish set-up in my Insight article, published yesterday.
The bullion and investment banks have been generally caught unawares by gold's performance, and have thrown the kitchen sink into the futures market to try and stop the rise. Open interest hit a record of 499,110 contracts this week. From the end of January, when the bears had finished closing their positions and the hedge funds began to turn bullish, extra paper gold was conjured out of thin air by the bullion banks totalling the equivalent of 391 tonnes of gold worth $16bn. If physical demand continues to build, bearing in mind that gold ETFs have seen net inflows every day for the last six weeks, there will be some serious losses for the bullion banks to absorb.
Comex's open interest and the gold price for the last ten weeks is shown in the chart below.
The small downturn from record open interest is worth discussing. It also happened on or about the 18th February and the 25th February. In the past three years, a falling price was often accompanied by an initial rise in open interest, reflecting bullion banks increasing their shorts in an attempt to drive the price down. This tactic has capped every rally in the market during the course of this bear market.
desks are quietly taking the opportunity to cap their shorts as and when they can. If this is so, it indicates that the bullion banks recognise they have a problem on their hands.
The most important news during the week was the ECB's actions to rescue the Eurozone from a prospective deflationary spiral. The announcement yesterday initially caused European equities to rally sharply, and for gold to fall $15, presumably reflecting the knee-jerk jump in the euro exchange rate. It turned out that this was very much the wrong reaction, with the German DAX index quickly losing over 5% from its best level, and gold rallying strongly to close up $18.
Let us recap the main points of yesterday's announcement. The ECB is deepening negative rates with the deposit rate to be set at -0.4% from Wednesday. Quantitative easing will be expanded an extra EUR20bn to EUR80bn per month, and will include investment grade bonds issued by non-financial corporations for the first time. A new series of targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) will commence in June. The TLTROs are a mechanism that allows the ECB to pay money to the banks at the deposit rate, fixed for four years, to encourage them to lend.
These measures are designed to stimulate confidence in the markets, maintain over-valued asset prices, and thereby encourage economic growth. The risk is they will be regarded as a sign of desperation, only matched by the impotent actions of the Bank of Japan. Indeed, it is hard to see how they will work, when the banks themselves are already over-geared on their balance sheets and have difficulty raising new primary capital, restricting their ability to expand their lending.
The Eurozone has only one card left to play, and that is fiscal stimulus. The removal of austerity becomes increasingly likely, which is probably what the gold price is trying to tell us.
Var skall detta sluta när investerarna betalar banken för att låna ut pengar till dess verksamhet. I går meddelade ECB att dom betalar bankerna pengar bara dom lånar från ECB. Dagens monetära system är inte konstruerat för negativa räntor och galenskaper om att bankens kunder skall betala till banken för nöjet att låna ut pengar. Hur länge till kan dessa galenskaper fortgå.
Vi frågade häromdagen hur mycket Draghi tänker på Italien. Dagens Bazooka är Italiensk för o rädda deras banker. Finns det någon som har förtroende för dessa Centralbanks nissar inte undra på att guldet fortsätter sina resa norrut
Monetary policy decisions
At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB took the following monetary policy decisions:
(1) The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.00%, starting from the operation to be settled on 16 March 2016.
(2) The interest rate on the marginal lending facility will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.25%, with effect from 16 March 2016.
(3) The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to -0.40%, with effect from 16 March 2016.
(4) The monthly purchases under the asset purchase programme will be expanded to €80 billion starting in April.
(5) Investment grade euro-denominated bonds issued by non-bank corporations established in the euro area will be included in the list of assets that are eligible for regular purchases.
(6) A new series of four targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO II), each with a maturity of four years, will be launched, starting in June 2016. Borrowing conditions in these operations can be as low as the interest rate on the deposit facility.
Stora svängningar på valuta marknaden. Draghi hintade om att vi sett den sista räntesänkningen och vips så var hela euro försvagningen borta
Super Mario sköt iväg en mega Bazooka men markanden börjar så smått förstå att dessa Bazookas inte har någon större effekt på den ekonomiska utvecklingen. Frågan är om han kan ladda någon större Bazooka eller om det här var den sista. Möjligen åker han med helikoptern nästa gång och släpper ned pengar över folket.
Skall silvret upp eller guldet och börsen ner eller behövs det justeringar inom alla tillgångsslag för att stänga denna öppning.
Peter Schiff: I was right about everything!
Dagens siffror från Kina leder oavkortat till funderingar över Yuanens framtida värde då man nyligen lämnade en prognos om en tillväxt på mellan 6,5%-7% för 2016.
SHARES OF ITALY’S LARGEST FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS HAVE PLUMMETED IN THE OPENING MONTHS OF 2016 AS PILES OF BAD DEBT ON THEIR BALANCE SHEETS BECOME TOO HIGH TO IGNORE. AMID ALL OF THE RISKS FACING EU MEMBERS IN 2016, THE RISK OF CONTAGION FROM ITALY’S TROUBLED BANKS POSES THE GREATEST THREAT TO THE WORLD’S ALREADY BURDENED FINANCIAL SYSTEM.
AT THE CORE OF THE ISSUE IS THE CONCERNING LEVEL OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS (NPL’S) ON BANKS’ BOOKS, WITH ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 17% TO 21% OF TOTAL LENDING. THIS AMOUNTS TO APPROXIMATELY €200 BILLION OF NPL’S, OR 12% OF ITALY’S GDP. MOREOVER, IN SOME CASES, BAD LOANS MAKE UP AN ALARMING 30% OF INDIVIDUAL BANKS’ BALANCE SHEETS.
“The Brazilian economic downturn took a real turn for the worse in February,” according to Markit’s Composite PMI, which collapsed to record lows at 39.0. Despite a slightly less bad than expected GDP print this morning (still down a record 5.89% YoY), hope was quickly extinguished as PMIs showed economic activity continuing to contract at a record pace, job losses accelerating, and manufacturing’s collapse accelerating. As Market sums up, “With the global economy also showing signs of slowing, which will impact on external demand, it looks as if the downturn is set to continue to run its course in the coming months.”
GDP was a disaster (but better than expected)
Markets finally adjusting to reality that we're entering recession
Gold has had a good week, breaking out from a consolidation pattern, and heading into new high ground for this year.
Silver, which has been left behind, appears to be merely pulled along in gold's wake. As of early this morning UK time, the gold price is at $1,261, up 19% on the year, while silver is a little better this morning relative to its recent underperformance at $15.30, so is up only 10.5% on the year. Silver's underperformance is a mystery to many, probably explained by the big money shifting into gold having been dangerously underweight, while the silver price is still reflecting moderating industrial demand. The result is the gold/silver ratio is now over 82 times.
Whoever is buying gold is probably less of an important issue than the simple fact that prices rise when there are more buyers and sellers. We started from a base of maximum bearishness, with traders and investors in western financial markets owning almost no gold. On Comex, traders were actually net short last December, a hitherto unprecedented situation. It is from these extremes that gold and gold-related investments, such as the mining companies, have soared. Gold is the best performing asset measured over the first nine weeks of 2016, and portfolio exposure is close to zero.
So the strength of gold is taking everyone by surprise. The common view of analysts in the investment houses appears to be there is no need yet to review their price targets, which are variously between $950 and $1300 for the year end. From being outright deniers of the investment merits of gold, many of them have moved to defend their position by saying it is
based on their economist's economic forecasts. Read this as code for "it's not my fault I'm getting it wrong, I'm just reflecting the house view".
The financial establishment has missed the boat, and is probably only a marginally reluctant buyer on balance. But what trader can look at gold's performance, shown in the next chart, and keep short positions running?
From every technical standpoint, this chart is so bullish as to be very frightening for the bears. A classic golden cross of the moving averages is in place, and the price has completed a text-book pennant consolidation, which should mark the half way point in the up-trend, giving a price objective of $1400+. Of course, technical analysis doesn't always work, but the point is that bears should not be just hibernating on their positions.
Technicals aside, fundamentalists have the task of casting around for reasons behind the move. Could it be that the central bankers, returning from the G20 meeting in Shanghai, are either demanding their leased gold is returned, or alternatively wading into the market to secure some physical bullion?
A fanciful thought perhaps, but there is no doubt that the tone of that G20 meeting was downbeat. This is hardly surprising, given the increasingly obvious failures of monetary policy. Importantly, the Brexit referendum is not going to plan, and if the opinion polls begin to show a majority in favour of leaving the EU, the break-up of its political model may follow. Concerns will then mount about the future for the highly-leveraged Eurozone banking system, and even for the euro itself.
Equity markets have enjoyed a relief rally, while there has been a pause in the negative news flow. No doubt bullion traders would have expected the gold price to fall, reflecting profit-taking. As noted above, this has been limited to a relatively small consolidation in the form of a technical pennant.
USAs löner sjunker vilket inte hjälper USA till högre tillväxt utan spär på deflations oron hos FED, När ser vi någon form av Q4?
Black Rock ger inte ut nya ETF aktier med guld som underliggande tillgång då efterfrågan är för stor. Här har man hämtat guld de senaste tre åren för leverans av fysiskt guld vilket nu är slut och frågan är var skall fysiskt guld hämtas från då efterfrågan är större än utbudet.
BlackRock’s Gold ETF (IAU) has seen fund inflows every day in 2016 (no outflows at all) and with the stock trading above its NAV for most of the year, the world’s largest asset manager has made a significant decision:
*BLACKROCK SAYS ISSUANCE OF GOLD TRUST SHARES SUSPENDED DUE TO DEMAND FOR GOLD
It appears the huge demand for physical demand is finally catching up with the manipulation of paper prices.
Börjar den negativa räntan sjunka in hos bankerna i Europa. Förmodligen kommer det mer nästa vecka och för varje dag som går är det fler och fler som börjar förstå att dagens system inte är utformat för negativ ränta och att cash och guld är det som gäller
Louise Yamada är nu för första gången på länge positiv till guldet enligt hennes tekniska beräkningar
The daily (above) and weekly (see Figure 2) momentum models have moved to new one-year highs (lower arrows), offering both short and intermediate-term Buy signals. The next step would be for a pullback to hold at a higher low, above the December low, and perhaps complete a year-long reverse “head-and-shoulders” bottom (see Figure 2, saucers) which would extend the basing process. Thereafter a higher high would establish a new uptrend, the first in years.
The greatest collapse in the bulk tonnage freight index in global history. The Baltic Dry Goods Index falls from its zenith of nearly 11,000 to todays 290. This is the clear harbinger of economic collapse and the effective seizing up of the global economy.
While "greed was good" in the '80s, it appears "gold is good" in the new normal. As much as the barbarous relic is despised by all the mainstream money-peddlers in public (aside from those who have left the familia like Alan Greenspan), it seems to be loved in private. Central banks have been net buyers of gold for eight straight years, according to IMF estimates, the longest streak since the first troops were deployed in The Vietnam War.
Deflationen har greppet om EU och nästa vecka kommer Super Mario och skall fixa detta problem med ytterligare pengatryckning och mer negativ ränta som vi vet inte hjälper.
The United States Mint registered sales of 4,782,000 American Silver Eagle coins this month, the most ever for a February. While sales were down 20% from the 5,9 million sold in January, they were still 58% higher than the 3.0 million sold a year earlier.
More could have sold but the U.S. Mint has rationed their distribution because of silver planchet shortages.
Last year’s 2015-dated American Silver Eagle went on to notch an annual sales record of 47 million, with their sales through February 2015 reaching 8,552,000 coins. This year’s starting two-month total of 10,736,500 coins is running 26% faster, suggesting that 2016 is likely to be another record year for Silver Eagle sales.
It wasn’t just silver coin sales that were significantly. Sales of one ounce American Gold Eagles in February 2016 reached 83,500 ounces, sliding 32.7% from the January total of 124,000 ounces but surging 351.4% from the 18,500 ounces moved in February of last year.
Watch out because a key stock benchmark is close to a “bearish crossover,” warn chart watchers.
The S&P 500 SPX, -0.81% is not far from having its 10-month moving average cross below its 20-month moving average from above for the first time since 2008, says Jonathan Krinsky at MKM Partners in a note dated Sunday.
There have been just two other such crossovers in the last 22 years, and “both coincided with cyclical bear markets,” cautions Krinsky, MKM’s chief market technician. His note offers the chart below.