As Bloomberg reports, investors are now paying a record premium to hedge against the pound’s fluctuations over the next month as risks surrounding the U.K. referendum on European Union membership persist.Sterling’s one-month implied volatility versus the dollar has surged to 7.83 percentage points relative to historical swings, from 2.56 yesterday.
And today's Brexit-favoring polls...
- Phone poll on U.K. referendum on EU shows 45% leave, 42% remain and 13% undecided, according to ICM poll released by Guardian on its website.
- Online survey shows 47% leave, 44% remain, 9% undecided
Confirm what bookies had signalled - Ladbrokes noted a huge increase in the proportion of money being bet on Brexit...
Consumer Confidence plunged to 92.6 (missing expectations of 96.1 by the most since November). May's dismal print (a 3 sigma miss) is below the lowest of 68 economist estimates as expectations slipped modestly but Present Situation tumbled with optimism on jobs sliding to 6-month lows.
Finally, government confidence data declines to other survey's realities...
Having wavered around the magical '50' level for much of the last year, bouncing off December plunge lows, Chicago PMI printed below expectations of 50.5 at a contractionary 49.3 - the 6th month of contraction in the last 12 months. With weakness in new orders (lowest since Dec 2015) and production (both back into contraction), MNI notes that on the heels of April's decline, the latest results show activity stumbling in the second quarter, following only moderate growth in Q1.
The 8th month of contraction in th elast 14..
This is the 17th month in a row of contraction for Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey as the headline print plunged to -20.8 from -13.9 (missing expectations of a hopeful bounce to -8.0 by 6 standard deviations). Despite the unequivocally good rebound in oil prices, sentiment in Dallas remains dismal with new orders crashing as even 'hope' has now given way to realism as the 6-month outlook tumbles back into negative territory.
We discuss the declaration of fracking war in North Yorkshire and yet without a prime minister vowing the defend the island, no matter the cost. In the second half Max interviews financial analyst, Rick Ackerman, about bonds, gold and pensions.
SP-500 handlas på höga värderingar med rekord värdering för price/sales och 50 dagars korsar 100 dagars vilket kan innebära att vi är mycket nära en större sättning
According to Financial Times:
"...Equity funds suffered their seventh consecutive week of outflows, shedding another $9.2bn for the week ending May 25, taking their total outflows for the year above $100bn, according to data from EPFR."
It isn't just the "smart money" selling, retail investors are too.
Via Bank of America:
"Equities continued to experience outflows and lost $3.32bn (-0.1%) last week, their 4th consecutive decline. Year-to-date, equity funds have lost $58.6bn (-0.6%), the largest ever dollar outflow in any 22 week period for the asset class."
"After snapping up trillions of dollars of their own stock in a five-year shopping binge that dwarfed every other buyer, U.S. companies from Apple Inc. to IBM Corp. just put on the brakes.
Announced repurchases dropped 38 percent to $244 billion in the last four months, the biggest decline since 2009, data compiled by Birinyi Associates and Bloomberg show."
Bilförsäljningen har varit framgångsrik i USA sedan 2009 men med lånade pengar och sämre säkerheter. Börsvärderingen är samtidigt på extremt höga nivåer
Ever since the supposed economic turnaround, the amount of outstanding auto loans has increased dramatically from less that $700 billion in 2010 to over $1 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2015. According to Wolf Richter, quoted in the article:
“Deep-subprime borrowers are high-risk. Typically they have credit scores below 550. To make it worth everyone’s while, they get stuffed into loans often with interest rates above 20%. To make payments even remotely possible at these rates, terms are often stretched to 84 months. Borrowers are typically upside down in their vehicle: the negative equity of their trade-in, along with title, taxes, and license fees, and a hefty dealer profit are rolled into the loan. When the lender repossesses the vehicle, losses add up in a hurry.
When I was younger, the longest automobile loan an individual could get was 48 months. However, you were considered to be a REAL LOSER if you had to finance an automobile that long. Now, 84 months is becoming the norm....LOL.
This is just one factor that shows just how weak the economy has become if Americans have to finance a car for seven years.
Here is another chart from the article linked above. It shows just how inflated the S&P 500 index has become:
The heavy liquidation we have witnessed in the last couple of weeks likely means that gold will require some time to repair itself and put a sustainable bottom in place. Below $1206 the next significant areas of support are ~$1190 followed by $1175-$1180.
In addition, June/July are seasonally weak months for gold historically. Precious metals investors/traders should prepare for a messy summer trading range before a bottom is put in place by mid-August; while I see a low probability of downside below $1175, I view $1306 as a level that won’t be surpassed for several months.
This week subscribers in the Trading Lab over at CEO.CA were able to catch a large chunk of the Wednesday/Thursday bounce in GDX and completely avoid today’s downside. I expect the summer trading range to continue to offer ample opportunities for nimble traders. To subscribe to the CEO Technician Premium Service click on the button below:
Återköpen av aktier i USA minskar nu i rask takt vilket innebär att börsen är nu mycket sårbar för en större sättning
Gold is Your Protector
Hur länge till kan silver marknaden gå med underskott utan att priset måste upp. Hedge fonderna verkar tro att prisuppgången är nära
The first quarter earnings season is almost over (91% of companies have reported) and the results, while not quite as dire as forecast just over a month ago, still led to the worst quarterly report since the financial crisis, mostly due to a widely expected collapse in energy revenues and earnings, however the big surprise was the disappointing misses in numerous consumer and retail stocks, the result of which was a plunge in the retail index...
... even though on Friday the US government reported that April retail sales that were supposedly the strongest in 13 months. The government data was so "good" in fact that even establishment economists such as Stephanie Pomboy of Macromavens did what we have repeatedly done in the past few months when she accused the government of fabricating the reported number by using a major seasonal adjustment gimmick.
Guldbolagen är extremt billiga i förhållande till produkten de producerar med stabilt eller stigande guldpriser är potentialen i dessa bolag enorm
King World News: There has been a great deal of worry about the recent and rapid advance in the gold and silver mining shares. This is why it’s so important to take a step back and look at the big picture. Below KWN readers around the world can see a 32-year chart of the XAU (mining share index) vs Gold ratio.
Clif High’s web bot project has been long been predicting that silver and gold will skyrocket higher as the US Dollar loses its dominion as the world’s reserve currency. And as the once formidable Dollar ultimately begins to hyperinflate as nations lose all confidence in the Federal Reserve Note, the web bots predict triple digit silver prices and eventually even a 1 to 1 silver to gold ratio in coming years. Will it really happen? No one can say with certainty, but there are very concrete signs that the cracks in the western banking system and fiat Dollar are about to turn into gaping fissures. Meanwhile, China is hoarding PHYSICAL silver at the Shanghai Gold Exchange and openly encouraging Chinese citizens to acquire physical silver and gold as a way to protect their wealth. It’s a paradigm shift of epic proportion, away from paper Dollars and into PHYSICAL metal. David Morgan from The Morgan Report is here to discuss it all. Thanks for tuning in.
I USA läggs mer och mer varor på den osålda hyllan samtidigt som försäljningen sjunker och FEDs LMCI visar negativa jobb siffror. Finns det någon tvivel om att ekonomin är på väg åt fel håll och nästa steg är Q4, NIRP eller helikopter pengar. Möjligen en kombination.
There’s no way the global economy will ever close this gap. But that won’t stop governments from trying to pay their debts by printing more money. This will only destroy the value of paper currencies. Meanwhile, the price of gold, which is real money that cannot be created from thin air, will soar.
Danmark har haft negativ ränta i ca 4 år och inflationen har fortsatt nedåt. Varför tror då andra länder att det skall fungera.
Har affärsbankernas lönsamma affärsidé med att korta guldet och sedan trycka ned priset kommit till ett slut. Trots rekord stora kortningar lyckas man inte utan kortningarna ökar för varje vecka. Spännande den dagen då dom måste täcka in sig och det är ont om säljare
For the gold miners, we are now in month four of the advance of the Jan. 19 low and for those out there trying to time the correction, nothing has yet worked that had been working before. The COT worked beautifully in October with the Commercials short 166,000 followed by a $150 drop; we got to 171,431 back in on March 1 with gold at $1,230 followed by a $76 ADVANCE and a 123,470 INCREASE in commercial shorts—so the COT hasn't worked. RSI has been as high as 86.75 on Feb. 11 with gold at $1,245; it dropped under 50 briefly on a move to $1,210 and has since not made it back to 70 despite a move in price to $1,306, so RSI hasn't worked. MACD has had one negative crossover and two near misses since February while the Histograms have gone from plus to minus to plus with the worst print in since February at $1,210. Bullish percentage has an 83 print and is the highest BPI for gold miners since the top in August 2011. Nothing in the annals of technical analysis has worked for one simple reason: We are in a BULL MARKET.
Fortsatt stort intresse för att fylla på guld i handlade ETF fonder. Hur skall Bullion Bankerna stänga sin enorma kort positioner om det är fortsatt stor efterfrågan på fysiskt guld och Hedge Fonderna inte börjar sälja
Är det någon som förstår hur Sverige skall komma ur sin negativa ränta utan att bostadsbubblan spricker.
The London property bubble shows renewed signs that it is beginning to burst. Property sellers in the UK have reduced their asking prices and London property prices have fallen by 7.8 per cent on average and as much as 30% in some areas according to City AM today.
Marco Saba, the President of the Italian Institute of Superior Studies on Economic & Monetary Sovereignty, joins me to discuss the LIE that the international criminal banks are insolvent — it’s all part of the Rothschild money creation trick to ensnare and enslave the world. Marco asks, “How can a bank that is allowed to create money out of thin air ever be insolvent?” The secret of how money is created needs to be revealed to all of the people on earth. The power of money creation has made the Banksters more powerful than any nation, in fact the international Banksters which comprise the IMF, BIS and central banks like the Federal Reserve are the shadow government which control nation sates all over the globe.
Några charts från den kända Stan Druckenmiller där det framkommer att vi är nära slutet för detta monetära system och att man skall ha guld o silver
Several days ago, hedge fund legend Stan Druckenmiller spoke at the Sohn Conference delivering what may have been his most bearish fire and brimstone sermon yet, and in fact according to some buysiders who were present, its somber mood and lack of faux optimism was downright apocalyptic. And how can it not be when Druckenmiller said that while the Fed and policymakers have no endgame, markets do - hinting that one is rapidly approaching - and suggested that everyone should liquidate their equity holdings and buy a certain 5000 year old shiny asset, which as we reported earlier this week , is Druckenmiller's "largest currency allocation."
And just so everyone can appreciate what is keeping up at night one of the most illustrious investing minds of any generation (with a 30% average return from 1986 through 2010) below we repost his entire presentation delivered at the May 4 Sohn Conference, titled appropriately enough...
Bullion banks är nu rekordkorta i guld och väntar på att Hedge fonderna skall sälja av. Vad händer om detta inte sker och det blir en shortsquezze
Dåliga trading siffror från Kina fick kinesiska börsen på fall med nästan 3%. Europa verkar dock tycka att det var positivt och kör upp kurserna rejält
Exports fell 1.8% from a year earlier, following a strong 11.5% rebound in March (mostly due to last year's base effect), the General Administration of Customs said on Sunday, supporting the government's concerns that the foreign trade environment will be challenging in 2016. April imports tumbled 10.9% from a year earlier after a 7.6% drop last month and falling for the 18th consecutive month,driven by weaker processing trade, confirmg domestic demand remains weak despite a pickup in infrastructure spending and record credit growth in the first quarter.
Fortsatt stora flöden till Guld ETF fonder samtidigt som dollarn är på känsliga nivåer. Dåliga jobbsiffror kan få dollarn på ytterligare fall
ECB har nu bestämt sig för att inte trycka nya Euro 500 vilket skyndar på processen mot det kontant fria samhället. Har man minus ränta och Bail In pengar så måste pengarna stanna i bankerna digitala värld. Guldet blir snart det ända alternativet
Well, it finally happened.
After months of innuendo, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced last night once and for all that they will no longer produce the 500 euro note.
The 500 euro note is the highest denomination of physical currency in the euro zone, and they’ve been talking about phasing it out for quite some time.
(The next highest is the 200 euro note, then 100. These will still be produced… for now.)
Of course, according to their reasoning, only bad people who engage in criminal activity, tax evasion, and terror financing use 500 euro notes.
All of us law-abiding little people have no need for such high denomination cash.
That’s a very convenient view for the ECB to take given that they’ve led the crusade to make interest rates negative.
Silverpriset har inte rört sig mycket över de senaste 40 åren trots att efterfrågan är större än utbudet
Silent Coup Beginning to Overtake America Now-Larry Nichols
Former Clinton insider Larry Nichols has worked with, and now against, the Clintons. Nichols has some of the top political and financial connections on the planet. Nichols hopes the public is finally realizing the enormous power struggle going on. Nichols explains, “There is no two-party system in the United States of America. Let’s get that straight. There is no two-party system, there is one. Part of it is a red team and part of it is a blue team. You think you have a choice, but as you know you only have a choice between the two they give you to vote for, but here comes Trump. Trump doesn’t need their money . . . he will bust up the system, and he will not only bust up the system for the Republican Party, but he will bust up the system (for both parties). So, there are many establishment Republicans that have said they would rather vote for Hillary than Trump. . . . They must maintain status quo of the system for these power elite people to stay where they want to be.”
"Last week, during which the S&P 500 fell 1.3% in its biggest weekly decline since early Feb., BofAML clients were net sellers of US equities for the 14th consecutive week, in the amount of $2.8bn. As we noted last week, this has been the longest uninterrupted selling streak in our data history (since ‘08)—previously the longest streak was 12 weeks (in late ‘10)."
Analyst David P. out of Europe: “Finally, some extremely good news for silver investors. The MACD-indicator on the silver chart has recently turned to a buy signal for the first time since late 2011 (see 28-year chart below):
MACD Turns Bullish On Silver For The First Time Since 2011!
Guld och silver relationen är nära 73 vilket visar att silver priset just nu stiger snabbare än guldet vilket är positivt då det brukar vara silvret som leder guldpriset uppåt
Vi går nu in i perioden maj-oktober vilket har den klart sämsta utvecklingen för aktier under året. Marknaden går in i perioden med en öppen käft som skall stängas med antigen betydligt bättre vinstutsikter eller klart lägre aktiekurser.
Examine the following log-scale graph of COMEX silver. The red lines are 4.75 years apart. The green line shows a long term exponential trend upward.