Total NYSE margin debt is 7% below the all-time high set 18 months ago.
According to some, that means a bear market is way overdue.
That’s because margin debt typically peaks in advance of the stock market itself. In 2007, for example, margin debt peaked in July, three months before the bull market topping out in October. As Wolf Richter of the Wolf Street investment blog bluntly put it: Margin debt “has a bone-chilling habit of peaking right around the time stocks crash.”