Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.


Publicerad 2018-12-20 17:10:00 i Ekonomi,

The current cumulative SPX return from Sep 20th ‘til now looks shockingly like the SPX 1Y return profile from Oct 9th 2007 through Oct 3rd 2008—yikes.

Incidentally, if this dire analog is accurate, the S&P should halt its decline somewhere around 1,500.


Nedbank om likviditeten

Publicerad 2018-12-17 17:31:00 i Ekonomi,

Nedbank strategists Mehul and Neels write some exciting stuff and like me, they don't confuse fundamentals with liquidity. They wrote in a strategy note: 

There is a strong relationship between the change in global dollarNSE -0.40 % liquidity (M1) and the performance of the global stock market -- a correlation of 76 per cent. 

• Global dollar liquidity leads global stock markets by an average of eight months. 
• If there is no boost to global dollar liquidity, we expect this relationship to hold. As a result, the risk of further downside potential for stock markets across the world would remain intact. 



Publicerad 2018-12-14 16:51:36 i Ekonomi,

Are we close to a major financial crisis with the monetary system at the center. The following chart that shows the ratio of gold to the monetary base:

(Click on images to enlarge)

Det är bara kineserna själva som vet hur mycket guld dom har men det är helt klart betydligt mer än vad som redovisas här

Publicerad 2018-12-11 16:21:00 i Ekonomi,

The following table shows the six largest holders of gold in terms of GDP (Eurozone countries are combined into one and include the ECB). Notice how much gold China would have to purchase to increase their gold-to-GDP ratio to just 2%.

Skillnaden i syn på guldets värde

Start with how both the Chinese government and its citizens think about gold. They see it very differently than Westerners (US, Canada, Western Europe):


The West


Basic view

An investment

Money, a store of value

Buying and selling

Trading for profit

Preparing for crisis

Current weak price

Gold is dead!

Opportunity to build larger and larger position

The future of gold

“You mean beyond 3 months?”

A financial backstop; protection against the inevitable shift away from the US Dollar


The Chinese view gold in the context of its role throughout history. Not as a vehicle for trading in and out of or even as an investment, but as the most secure asset they can hold to safeguard their country’s future monetary and financial standing.

Saxo Bank 10 'Outrageous Predictions' for 2019

Publicerad 2018-12-10 11:40:19 i Ekonomi,

As Valuewalk's Jacob Wolinsky notes, Saxo Bank, the leading Fintech specialist focused on multi-asset trading and investment, has today released its 10 'Outrageous Predictions' for 2019. The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets.

While these predictions do not constitute Saxo’s official market forecasts for 2019, they represent a warning of a potential misallocation of risk among investors who typically see just a one percent likelihood to these events materialising.

The Outrageous Predictions for 2019 are:

  1. EU announces a debt jubilee

  2. Apple “secures funding” for Tesla at $520/share

  3. Trump tells Powell “you’re fired”

  4. Prime Minister Corbyn sends GBPUSD to parity

  5. Corporate credit crunch pushes Netflix into GE’s vortex

  6. Australian central bank launches QE on housing bust Down Under

  7. Germany enters recession

  8. X-Class solar flare creates chaos and inflicts $2 trillion of damage

  9. Global Transportation Tax (GTT) enacted as climate panic spreads

  10. IMF and World Bank announce intent to stop measuring GDP, focus instead on productivity

Commenting on the Outrageous Predictions, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, Steen Jakobsen said:

“We have been publishing Outrageous Predictions for more than a decade and think this year’s list is both fascinating and shocking while encouraging investors to think outside the consensus box. It is important to underline that the Outrageous Predictions should not be considered Saxo’s official market outlook, it is instead the events and market moves deemed outliers with huge potential for upsetting consensus views.

Yield Kurvan

Publicerad 2018-12-04 12:33:00 i Ekonomi,

The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields is shrinking and is very close to its post-crisis low. Interesting that this key yield curve is flattening, despite the risk-on feel.


Debt Bomb

Publicerad 2018-12-03 13:20:51 i Ekonomi,

Here are five charts from HSBC showing why some are worried about a corporate debt bubble:

Postcrisis debt levels set fresh peaks
The ballooning universe of BBB bonds
High times for leveraged loans

The looming maturity wall



Min profilbild

Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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