S&P 500 företagen spenderar mer på återköp av aktier än investeringar i rörelsen. Skattelättnad för cash utomlands har finansierat men har vi sett toppen när det gäller dollar som kommer tillbaka till USA
The Conference Board survey today showed the spread between bond bears and bond bulls (70 percentage points) has hit extreme levels. This a great contrary data-point in favor of lower yields.
Global Auto Sales, through September YoY:
Precious metals investors don’t have much to console them these days. Just about the only bright spot is the nice, though ephemeral, pop in the gold/silver price that seems to happen every January. Sometimes it persists for six or so months, sometimes it ends before the snows do. But either way it’s more fun than the rest of the year.
Stan Druckenmiller: We’re in the most economically disruptive period since the 1880s and there’s been no bankruptcies. As quantitative easing turns to quantitative tightening, all these zombies are going to be exposed. https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2018/11/21/real-time-economics-were-in-the-most-economically-disruptive-period-since-the-1880s/ …
Börjar nu FED närma sig slutet på denna räntehöjnings cykel och en recession närmar sig och större delen av världens finansmarknader är eller på väg in i en bear market.
Central banks should consider issuing digital money, IMF's Lagarde says
- IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said central banks should "consider the possibility to issue digital currency" in a speech in Singapore on Wednesday.
- Lagarde said the nature of money is changing as demand for cash decreases around the world.
- Central banks and financial institutions could partner to address the risks of digital currencies, Lagarde said.
The gold market is bigger than all financial markets – exceeded only by bond and money markets.
A point to consider here is that gold is not traded at the commodity desks of large banks. It is traded at the currency desks. And a staggering $250 billion worth of gold changes hands on a daily basis via the London Metals Exchange.
The German economy shrank for the first time since early 2015 after the auto industry took a hit.
Under the watchful eye of Kuroda, and the overseeing (but independent) hand of Abe, The Bank of Japan's balance sheet grew to 553.6 trillion yen as on November 10th - that is larger than Japan’s annualized nominal seasonally-adjusted GDP of 552.8 trillion yen (as of the end of June).
Some context for just how crazy this is, here is The Fed vs US GDP...
And putting it all together...
What happens next?
Goldman agrees, high valuations in isolation do not provide much of a timing signal for investors but, again, when combined with other factors can indicate risks of a correction or possible bear market.
Goldman aggregated these variables in a signal indicator, and took each variable and calculated its percentile relative to its history since 1948. What it found is that, heuristically, the odds of a bear market at this moment, are in the 73% percentile.
The aggregate Bear Market Risk Indicator shows the average of these factors. Historically, when the Indicator rises above 60% it is a good signal to investors to turn cautious, or at the very least recognise that a correction followed by a rally is more likely to be followed by a bear market than when these indicators are low. By the same token, when the Indicator is very low, below 40% (as was the case in 1975, 1982 and 2009), investors should see any market weakness as an opportunity to buy.
As shown below, the risk of a bear market has almost never been greater.
Gold Open Interest / COMEX Deliverable Gold ratio: 2nd highest on record; 358 claims per every ounce available for delivery.
The Reserve Bank of India bought 21.8 tons of Gold in Jan-Sep, with 13.7 tons being bought in the Jul-Sep quarter alone, attributing the trend to enhancement of the long-term stability of reserves amid rising concerns over global economic and political turmoil, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).
Global central banks bought over 148.4 tons of Gold in Jul-Sep, up 22% from the same period last year. The purchases were the highest since 2015, WGC added.
WGC has estimated Jul-Sep Gold demand in India, the second largest consumer of the precious metal in the world, at 183.2 tons, up 10% from a year ago, as fall in prices to multi-month lows in the early part of the quarter encouraged people to buy jewellery as well as invest in the metal.
The demand for jewellery rose 10% to 148.8 tons and investment demand rose 11% to 34.4 tons in Jul-Sep.
In Jan-Sep, however, the overall demand for Gold in India was down by 1% on year to 523.9 tons. Though the current quarter is normally a vibrant period for Gold purchases in India, the seasonal spike in demand could be moderate in this festival season due to factors like lack of liquidity, rising Indian prices and impending elections in some key states impacting trade logistics.