Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Kommer vi få se samma utveckling för AU och AG i början på 2019

Publicerad 2018-11-26 09:32:51 i Ekonomi,

Precious metals investors don’t have much to console them these days. Just about the only bright spot is the nice, though ephemeral, pop in the gold/silver price that seems to happen every January. Sometimes it persists for six or so months, sometimes it ends before the snows do. But either way it’s more fun than the rest of the year.

Gold price 5 years Gold January rally

Jim Sinclairs kommentar till Lagardes utspel om digital valuta utgiven av Centralbanker

Publicerad 2018-11-16 10:19:58 i Ekonomi,

Central banks should consider issuing digital money, IMF's Lagarde says

  • IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said central banks should "consider the possibility to issue digital currency" in a speech in Singapore on Wednesday.
  • Lagarde said the nature of money is changing as demand for cash decreases around the world.
  • Central banks and financial institutions could partner to address the risks of digital currencies, Lagarde said.
Jim Sinclair
Dear All, Friends & Family,

I have been telling you ever since crypto currency entered into circulation that they were an experiment by the central banks looking towards a replacement for the US dollar as the sole reserve currency. It is also my reason for expecting that the second reset to take hold is in a very serious economic currency upheaval. The double transition will take place between June of 2019 and 2025. This is not positive to the US dollar nor terminal. This is positive to gold and gold shares which have been decimated. As it is not terminal to the dollar it is a cause for a gold rally, from which there will be no downside reaction. This is the coming realization of the basic concepts of "Free Gold."

It cannot be stopped nor is there a long term will to continue to lean against gold, which will allow a bankruptcy in sovereign central banks as entities to be restored. Russia and China have known this, as has my family, which dates back to membership with the wealthiest Jewish families of Europe.

What is coming is not any of the crypto currency present now.

Those close to me and continuous daily readers know I got a call from my family on Bert Seligman's side at $1058 that the bull market's negative reaction in gold was over. This was posted on JSMineset at that time.

The resets are coming with an entire new role for gold.

Have an open mind to change because all you can be sure of is change in the financial and currency world.



Notera volymen guld som handlas varje dag

Publicerad 2018-11-15 13:21:45 i Ekonomi,

The gold market is bigger than all financial markets – exceeded only by bond and money markets.

A point to consider here is that gold is not traded at the commodity desks of large banks. It is traded at the currency desks. And a  staggering $250 billion worth of gold changes hands on a daily basis via the London Metals Exchange.


Tyska ekonomin backar och då skall Super Mario skruva åt pengakranen

Publicerad 2018-11-14 11:30:30 i Ekonomi,

The German economy shrank for the first time since early 2015 after the auto industry took a hit.

The 0.2 percent contraction in the third quarter was worse than expected and the biggest in more than five years. While the hope is that the setback is related largely to new emissions tests that temporarily disrupted car production, the data are likely to feed into fears that the euro area’s expansion is running into trouble.
Bildresultat för super mario ECB

Otroligt att BOJ har lika mycket på sin balansräkning som landets BNP

Publicerad 2018-11-13 15:27:00 i Ekonomi,

Under the watchful eye of Kuroda, and the overseeing (but independent) hand of Abe, The Bank of Japan's balance sheet grew to 553.6 trillion yen as on November 10th - that is larger than Japan’s annualized nominal seasonally-adjusted GDP of 552.8 trillion yen (as of the end of June).

Some context for just how crazy this is, here is The Fed vs US GDP...

And putting it all together...


What happens next?

Goldman Sachs Bull/Bear Market Risk Indicator. Vi är nära nu.

Publicerad 2018-11-12 15:59:33 i Ekonomi,

Goldman  agrees, high valuations in isolation do not provide much of a timing signal for investors but, again, when combined with other factors can indicate risks of a correction or possible bear market.

Goldman aggregated these variables in a signal indicator, and took each variable and calculated its percentile relative to its history since 1948. What it found is that, heuristically, the odds of a bear market at this moment, are in the 73% percentile.

The aggregate Bear Market Risk Indicator shows the average of these factors. Historically, when the Indicator rises above 60% it is a good signal to investors to turn cautious, or at the very least recognise that a correction followed by a rally is more likely to be followed by a bear market than when these indicators are low. By the same token, when the Indicator is very low, below 40% (as was the case in 1975, 1982 and 2009), investors should see any market weakness as an opportunity to buy.

As shown below, the risk of a bear market has almost never been greater.


Publicerad 2018-11-12 10:13:33 i Ekonomi,

The biggest MoM jump in headline PPI since Sept 2012...

And even Core PPI surge most since Jan 2016

CB fortsätter att netto köpa guld

Publicerad 2018-11-08 10:12:07 i Ekonomi,

The Reserve Bank of India bought 21.8 tons of Gold in Jan-Sep, with 13.7 tons being bought in the Jul-Sep quarter alone, attributing the trend to enhancement of the long-term stability of reserves amid rising concerns over global economic and political turmoil, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

Global central banks bought over 148.4 tons of Gold in Jul-Sep, up 22% from the same period last year. The purchases were the highest since 2015, WGC added.


WGC has estimated Jul-Sep Gold demand in India, the second largest consumer of the precious metal in the world, at 183.2 tons, up 10% from a year ago, as fall in prices to multi-month lows in the early part of the quarter encouraged people to buy jewellery as well as invest in the metal.

The demand for jewellery rose 10% to 148.8 tons and investment demand rose 11% to 34.4 tons in Jul-Sep.

In Jan-Sep, however, the overall demand for Gold in India was down by 1% on year to 523.9 tons. Though the current quarter is normally a vibrant period for Gold purchases in India, the seasonal spike in demand could be moderate in this festival season due to factors like lack of liquidity, rising Indian prices and impending elections in some key states impacting trade logistics. 

Har återköpen av aktier peakat

Publicerad 2018-11-07 11:34:44 i Ekonomi,

Big U.S. companies spent more money on buying back shares than they did on capital expenditures in the first half of 2018. The last time that happened for two straight quarters was just before the crisis, according to this chart from Deutsche Bank's Torsten Slok

Börs eller obligationer

Publicerad 2018-11-05 11:28:21 i Ekonomi,

One of the most important charts in markets/macro, IMO. Positive-correlation b/t these two indices is the Achilles Heel of the US economy given the way the US economy has been structured post-1994.


Min profilbild

Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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