Gold Is Cheap. Inflation Is Coming. You Do the Math
Med USAs positiva konsumenter och den låga arbetslösheten brukar FEDs reala styrränta ligga runt 3%. FED ligger långt efter när det gäller ränte höjnings tempot.
Central banks’ demand for gold reached a three year high, rising 8% during the first half of 2018 compared to the same period last year, according to a World Gold Council market update on central bank buying activity released today.
Data reveals that 2018 H1 marks the strongest year for central bank gold buying since 2015 – a total of 193.3 tonnes of gold have been added to central bank reserves so far, compared to 178.6 tonnes during the same period in 2017.
An IMF Financial Statistics Report reveals that Egypt recently bought gold for the first time since 1978, and that India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines have re-entered the gold market after years-long absences.
Egypt recently bought gold for the first time since 1978, and that India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines have re-entered the gold market after years-long absences And Bloomberg reported that the Bank of Mongolia has purchased 12.2 tonnes of gold so far this year.
The World Gold Council believes that many emerging market central banks are turning their attention to gold as after years of exposure to the U.S. dollar, and as a natural currency hedge against other reserve currencies.
"Other reserve currencies continue to deal with significant issues: the euro faces both political and economic challenges across several member states, the renminbi remains relatively restricted and sterling continues to grapple with Brexit uncertainty," the World Gold Council writes.
Noncommercial silver traders are those that, for the most part, speculate on the short-term price of silver. Check out how extreme their current short position is:
The GSR just hit 85…its highest level in 27 years. Silver is “once-in-a-generation” undervalued according to this reliable metric:
The S&P 500 Index is on the verge of setting a new high for overvaluation. Its trailing 12-month price-to-sales ratio surged to 2.25 on Monday, the highest since the dot-com era. If you think it’s just the tech giants skewing the number, think again: The median PSR for index members is more than twice the level of the late 1990s.
We're at that $14 level again, and there's no reason why silver shouldn't reclaim $20 at the very least. We've seen it higher than that - a lot higher, actually:
Mark Carney förutser ett fall på ca 35% för Englands fastighetsmarknad om det inte blir avtal gällande Brexit
Over the course of the past decade, the global economy has recovered from the 2008 financial crisis by riding a wave of debt and liquidity injections from the major central banks. Yet in the absence of steady wage growth and productive investments in the real economy, the only direction left to go is down.
USAs skatteintäkter ökar inte vilket brukar vara brukligt när ekonomin går bra samtidigt ökar statens underskott i rask takt
U.S. corporations have been using much of their borrowed capital to buy back their own stock, increase dividends, and fund mergers and acquisitions - activities that are known for boosting stock prices and executive bonuses. Unfortunately, U.S. corporations have been focusing on these activities that reward shareholders in the short-term, while neglecting longer-term business investments - hubristic behavior that is typical during a bubble. The chart below shows how share buybacks and dividends paid increased dramatically since 2009:
During the dot-com bubble and housing bubble stock market cycles, margin debt peaked at roughly 2.75% of GDP. In the current stock market bubble, however, margin debt is nearly at 3% of GDP, which is quite concerning. The heavy use of margin at the end of a long bull market exacerbates the eventual downturn because traders are forced to sell their shares to avoid or satisfy margin calls.
The Fed Funds Rate chart below shows how the last two recessions and bubble bursts occurred after rate hike cycles; a repeat performance is likely once rates are hiked high enough. Because of the record debt burden in the U.S., interest rates do not have to rise nearly as high as in prior cycles to cause a recession or financial crisis this time around. In addition to raising interest rates, the Fed is now conducting its quantitative tightening (QT) policy that shrinks its balance sheet by $40 billion per month, which will eventually contribute to the popping of the stock market bubble.
Inte mycket som varit rätt från Riksbankens räntebana så varför skall vi lita på denna institution den här gången
Hur länge till kan USAs aktiemarknad stå emot den nedåtgående trend som övriga världens börser handlas i
Below is a chart of the S&P Composite stretching back to 1871 based on the real (inflation-adjusted) monthly average of daily closes. We're using a semi-log scale to equalize vertical distances for the same percentage change regardless of the index price range. The regression trendline drawn through the data clarifies the secular pattern of variance from the trend — those multi-year periods when the market trades above and below trend. That regression slope, incidentally, represents an annualized growth rate of 1.83%.
Inequality Has Grown
People at the bottom of the pay scale lost their jobs during the crisis. The government’s response to the crisis helped inflate the value of assets like stocks and real estate, which are more often owned by the wealthy.