Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Tyskland i recession??????????

Publicerad 2019-04-29 12:08:40 i Ekonomi,

may already be in recession, says in latest weekly Quill, as inventory run-up continues. Difference betw auto export expectations & auto inventories has dropped to -42.9, lowest spread since Jun2009. Comps have excess inventories of unsold goods to unload.


Hur stängs gapet???????????

Publicerad 2019-04-25 13:02:12 i Ekonomi,

During the first 15 months of Fed tightening, the S&P and ’s Economic Surprise Index moved largely in tandem; but during the past 15 months they’ve been moving in opposite directions

FED behöver sänka omgående

Publicerad 2019-04-24 13:03:28 i Ekonomi,

According to The Wall Street Journal, “policy makers appear to have pivoted in time to prevent” a recession. This is an assumption worth examining. 

These charts show the past half dozen Fed rate hike cycles in the context of the USFIG. Three of them ended in recessions, two in soft landings, and the last episode is still unfolding. 

Our research shows that the Fed achieved soft landings – like in 1995 – when it started rate cut cycles the same month the inflation downturn signals from the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) arrived. However, recessions followed when the rate cut cycles began with lags relative to those downturn signals. 

So, what really seems to matter is not when the Fed stops rate hikes, but how promptly it starts the rate cut cycle following the inflation downturn signal. 

In the current cycle the inflation downturn signal arrived last September, seven months ago. Of course, the Fed has no intention of starting a rate cut cycle just yet. Therefore, according to this pattern, an element of recession risk is present. 

Click here to request a copy of the full presentation, including notes.

Follow @businesscycle on Twitter and on LinkedIn.

Click here to review ECRI’s recent real-time track record.

Säsongsmässigt rätt att öka i guld

Publicerad 2019-04-23 09:38:00 i Ekonomi,

Chart 1 shows that May has been a reasonably strong month. And, gold tends to rise from June through September. Let us attempt to confirm this seasonal cycle with dynamic cycles.

Chart 1: Monthly Expected Return- Gold

The seasonal pattern favors higher prices.

Both the weekly and the monthly cycles are bottoming in the last week of April. All three of the monthly buy signals have led to higher prices in the past twelve months. Five of eight weekly buy signals have been successful in the last year.

Chart 2: Gold Monthly Cycle

The monthly cycle is bottoming.

Chart 3: Gold Weekly Cycle

The weekly cycle is also hitting a low.


The technical readings confirm the cycle lows in the next week; gold has retraced 38.2% of its August-February rally and is oversold. The gold open interest put/call ratio is reflecting excessive bearishness, which is a plus for the bulls. The first objectives are in the $1303-$1307 area.

Chart 4: Daily Gold

This correction appears to be at an end.

Räntemarknaden signalerar problem runt knuten

Publicerad 2019-04-04 10:06:19 i Ekonomi,

2-year yield falling after re-testing multi-decade resistance line! Happened 3 other times in history. All followed by a major bear market and recession.
Be wary when credit markets price in rate-cuts at the peak of the cycle. It’s not a bullish sign!

Ryssland minskar konstant sina FIAT placeringar

Publicerad 2019-04-02 11:26:52 i Ekonomi,

"Vladimir Putin’s quest to break Russia’s reliance on the U.S. dollar has set off a literal gold rush."


With Russia actively dumping US dollars and buying gold at the fastest paced in decades, the writing is on the wall when it comes to what the Kremlin thinks of any possibility for a detente in the painfully strained US-Russian relations.


PMI Globalt

Publicerad 2019-04-02 11:20:59 i Ekonomi,

Global manufacturing PMI for March matched Feb reading but when India and Mexico (which were too late this month to be included) are added, it likely slipped again for the 11th month in a row—matching the longest stretch of weakness seen in 2008.


Spekulanter gillar inte euron

Publicerad 2019-04-01 11:57:24 i Ekonomi,

Speculators have increased their bearish Euro bets to $11.3bn, highest since 2016 on weak European data. Net Euro shorts have increased by 2,574 to -80,278 contracts.


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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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