That kind of fits the upcoming seasonal pattern. There’s a give back period in May and a lot of sideways during the summer/autumn of pre-election years (from @AlmanacTrader)
Demand for gold was strong in February with central banks increasing their reserves by 51 tonnes, the biggest monthly increase since October 2018.
Rysslands valutareserv har nästan samma värde som innan oljepris kollapsen. Nu med 20% guld och inga bonds i dollar.
These charts show the past half dozen Fed rate hike cycles in the context of the USFIG. Three of them ended in recessions, two in soft landings, and the last episode is still unfolding.
Our research shows that the Fed achieved soft landings – like in 1995 – when it started rate cut cycles the same month the inflation downturn signals from the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) arrived. However, recessions followed when the rate cut cycles began with lags relative to those downturn signals.
So, what really seems to matter is not when the Fed stops rate hikes, but how promptly it starts the rate cut cycle following the inflation downturn signal.
In the current cycle the inflation downturn signal arrived last September, seven months ago. Of course, the Fed has no intention of starting a rate cut cycle just yet. Therefore, according to this pattern, an element of recession risk is present.
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Chart 1 shows that May has been a reasonably strong month. And, gold tends to rise from June through September. Let us attempt to confirm this seasonal cycle with dynamic cycles.
Chart 1: Monthly Expected Return- Gold
Both the weekly and the monthly cycles are bottoming in the last week of April. All three of the monthly buy signals have led to higher prices in the past twelve months. Five of eight weekly buy signals have been successful in the last year.
Chart 2: Gold Monthly Cycle
Chart 3: Gold Weekly Cycle
The technical readings confirm the cycle lows in the next week; gold has retraced 38.2% of its August-February rally and is oversold. The gold open interest put/call ratio is reflecting excessive bearishness, which is a plus for the bulls. The first objectives are in the $1303-$1307 area.
Chart 4: Daily Gold
US credit card interest rate at highest level in decades, DB says. So the American consumer will and can no longer buy so much on credit and that is bad for the global economy.
'Leuthold finds that the Present Situation reading is the indicator most closely linked to future stock market performance. When it is in a downtrend, like it is now, monetary easing from the Federal Reserve has basically no impact on stock performance.' https://www.businessinsider.com/next-stock-market-crash-recession-how-vulnerable-confidence-could-cause-it-2019-4 …
The Global Economy is Slowing! This chart shows the Citi Data Change Indices for emerging markets (orange), the U.S. (blue) and the G10 (green). These series, which measure economic data versus one-year averages, are currently at their lowest levels of the post-crisis period.
Är det någon som tror att det finns en fri marknad och att CB kommer minska sina köp av aktier och obligationer
"Historically, this degree of tightening has been more than enough to tip the economy into recession." https://www.businessinsider.com/next-recession-coming-says-signal-besides-yield-curve-albert-edwards-2019-3?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_content=BI_Prime_Weekend …
"Vladimir Putin’s quest to break Russia’s reliance on the U.S. dollar has set off a literal gold rush." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-29/russia-is-stocking-up-on-gold-as-putin-ditches-u-s-dollars …
With Russia actively dumping US dollars and buying gold at the fastest paced in decades, the writing is on the wall when it comes to what the Kremlin thinks of any possibility for a detente in the painfully strained US-Russian relations.
Global manufacturing PMI for March matched Feb reading but when India and Mexico (which were too late this month to be included) are added, it likely slipped again for the 11th month in a row—matching the longest stretch of weakness seen in 2008.