Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Yield kurvan i USA pekar mot svåra tider

Publicerad 2019-08-27 10:33:52 i Ekonomi,

Jeroen Blokland:  “For the record, the 10Y-3M yield curve is more inverted now than it was back in 2007. (See below).

WOW! US 10-Year vs 3-Month Yield Curve Is Now More Inverted Than It Was In 2007!


Positiva rekommendationer för AU

Publicerad 2019-08-27 10:20:14 i Ekonomi,

Banks that have recently released an updated gold price prediction into a chart. In most cases, it is an analyst at the bank making the prediction, not the bank itself. But since these are mostly analysts for the resource industry, their predictions are frequently used to make investment decisions for the institutional side of the firm, as well as to make recommendations to advisors who manage money for thousands of clients.

In some cases they don’t give a specific date or price, but here’s what these banks and analysts have publicly stated over the past couple weeks.


Rekord hög risk för USAs S&P 500

Publicerad 2019-08-26 13:43:55 i Ekonomi,

The top part of the chart shows, starting in 2000, the S&P Index (white) and the 2/10 year US Treasury Spread (red). The bottom part shows the S&P Index divided by the 2/20 Treasury spread. The green area in the bottom part shows that the risk of a turn is high. This indicator predicted the 2000 crash and also the 2007-9 crash. The green area since 2017 shows much higher risk than the previous two crises. We are now at the Tipping Point which in simple terms means that we will first see stocks fall rapidly and a bit later interest rates rise. The size of the bubble and the extent of the risk will this time lead to a fall much greater than in 2000 and 2007.

Crash Predictor (GREEN) Shows Much Higher Risk Today vs Onset Of 2000 And 2008 Crises


USAs konsumenter

Publicerad 2019-08-26 11:36:33 i Ekonomi,

With the excitement about Retail EPS and the "strong" consumer, a little perspective seemed in order. The broad trend in retail sales continues to be lower while borrowing to finance those purchases is accelerating. This has signaled recession/soft landing past.


Publicerad 2019-08-08 10:22:48 i Ekonomi,

The relationship btw the metallic barometer of financial insecurity (gold) and the metallic barometer of economic activity (copper) has been a reliable predictor of trouble in the past.

När får vi höra ordet recession i USA

Publicerad 2019-08-06 10:15:14 i Ekonomi,

Orders for Class 8 trucks – the iconic trucks that haul part of the economy’s goods across the country – collapsed by 81% in July compared to July last year, to 9,800 units, the lowest since 2010, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence on Friday. It was the ninth month in a row of year-over-year declines. But “declines” is not the right word. This year so far, these year-over-year “declines” ranged from -52% to -81%, which makes for a stunning collapse of the historic boom last year:

När får vi höra ordet recession för EU området

Publicerad 2019-08-01 13:27:00 i Ekonomi,

Eurozone: fall in the Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), from 103.3 in June to a 40-month low of 102.7 in July,
German business confidence dropped to the lowest level since November 2014 in June and closing the second quarter on a sour note. The IFO Business Climate Index came in at 97.4 in June, down from 97.9 in May.

När får vi höra ordet recession i USA

Publicerad 2019-08-01 13:18:52 i Ekonomi,

Per friday's revisions, BEA now shows domestic profits have plunged to 7% of GDP. When they did that in 1979, 1989, 2000 & 2007, they went on to drop another 2 ppts, on average. Not surpris'ly, eco recession ensued--(an avg. 7 mo's later). That wld put us @ Oct.


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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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