Housing starts (so far) peaked 11 months ago. Starts typically peak about 2 yrs (or more) before the next recession. Very long lead time, wide historical dispersion
Russia has effectively stopped exporting gold on the world market due to the Bank of Russia fears of US sanctions 87% of all gold produced in Russia – 274 tons – was bought by the Bank of Russia, setting an all-time record for its rate of acquisition.
Increased net capital outflows from the US might put some downward pressure on the dollar. ht@dailyfeather
Foreigners sold $77.35 billion in US Treasuries in December after net sales of $13.2 billion in November. December’s outflow was the largest since the U.S. government agency started recording Treasury debt transactions in January 1978. https://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-treasury-securities/update-1-foreign-selling-of-u-s-treasuries-in-december-hits-record-high-data-idUKL1N20A1NJ … ht @Schuldensuehner
The corporate media claims Venezuela has no basic food or supplies, so The Grayzone investigated — at a giant supermarket in Caracas.
Most firms in the S&P 500 are not “cash-rich” – the data is skewed by the top 5% of the companies.
Uh oh... Japanese exports fell by the most in over two years. Exports to China fell 17.4%
Investors who hold gold in their portfolios are more likely to prosper in times of negative interest rates! Sources: @stlouisfed, Incrementum AG Further insights available in @IGWTreport 2018: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt-2018-en/?lang=en …
On Dec 24, only 1% of stocks in the S&P 500 closed above their 50-day moving avg, one of the most extreme oversold levels in history. After an 18% vertical rally over the last 8 weeks, that number now stands at 92%, one of the most extreme overbought levels in history. $SPX
Here's what happened in January: Chinese financial institutions made a record 3.23 trillion yuan of new loans, versus a projected 3 trillion yuan. That was the most in any month back to 1992, when the data began, and represented a whopping 13.4% yoy increase in January.
But while the surge in new loans was impressive, it was nothing compared to what China reported in its broader, all-encompassing Aggregate Financing (until recently Total Social Financing), which exploded nearly threefold from December's 1.59 trillion to an unprecedented 4.64 trillion ($685 billion) in the month of January, smashing expectations of 3.31 trillion, and printing far above the highest forecast from 26 economists of 3.9 trillion. This was, as several traders noted, nothing short of a "gargantuan" credit injection, and an obvious greenlight to China's latest attempt to reflate its economy.
Var förvarar Italien sitt värdefulla guld. Känns denna fördelning tryggt med över 1000 ton i USA???????
Efterfrågan på konsumtionskrediter i USA är nu den lägsta sedan mätningar påbörjades. Eftersom större delen av tillväxten i USA kommer från konsumtion så har vi nog sett den sista räntehöjningen från FED
Bank of Japan’s Hoard of Assets Is Now Bigger Than the Economy The Federal Reserve’s assets are about 20 percent of U.S. GDP, while the European Central Bank’s holdings are equal to around 40 percent of the euro-zone economy CENTRAL BANKS around the world have gone INSANE.
Bank willingness to lend to consumers, a prime driver of Federal Reserve monetary policy, typically slumps to zero before a recession.
Yes, as The Fed continues to unwind its balance sheet, bank willingness to lend to consumers is melting.
Not only the divergence is dramatic, but the euro area 'peripheral' economies have not fully recovered from the 2008-2013 crisis, with their total real GDP sitting still 3.2 percentage points below the pre-crisis peak (attained in 2007), marking 2018 as the eleventh year of the crisis for these economies.
With Italy now in a technical recession - posting two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 3Q and 4Q 2018 based on preliminary data, and that recession accelerating (from -0.1% contraction in 3Q to -0.2% drop in 4Q) we are unlikely to see any fabled 'Euro-induced convergence' between the lower income states of the so-called Euro 'periphery' and the Euro area 8 states.
ISM Productivity Proxy = forward guide for corporate profits Profit growth is above average, while ISM productivity is below average, w/ latter sending peak profits signal
Centralbankernas ökande intresse för köp av guld vittnar om att vi närmar oss någon form av förändring av det monetära systemet
Europe’s most dangerous stock of public borrowing—some 1.5 trillion euros ($1.7 trillion)—is concentrated on the balance sheets of banks in Rome and Milan. But a rout could quickly sweep in lenders in Frankfurt, Paris and Madrid—the main banks in the rest of Europe are holding more than 425 billion euros of sovereign and private Italian debt, based on a Bloomberg analysis of European Banking Authority data.
Although Italy’s economy slipped into recession in the fourth quarter, markets are calm for now. But a budget standoff in the fall showed how swiftly sentiment can turn. And if markets should turn south, no one knows exactly where the tipping point will come.
French banks are the most exposed if a sell-off in Italy starts to affect the economy and spread through Europe’s financial system. The country’s two largest banks, BNP Paribas SA and Credit Agricole SA own retail units in Italy.
The dollar has peaked and its weakness may become a negative spiral as foreign investors exit due to the poor currency-hedged returns of U.S. assets, according to Morgan Stanley.
USA dras med gigantiska underskott som måste finansieras. Utländska aktörer vill inte vara med så inhemska aktörer får öppna plånboken som dessvärre verkar vara ganska "empty"
When the change in the unemployment rate turns positive a recession can quickly follow at the end of a lengthy business cycle. Grey area = recession
Euroområdet ser inget vidare ut, Super Mario är nog i tryckeriet och förbereder mer likviditet till marknaderna
Since the Fed became focused on creating asset bubbles (mid-90s), each “pause” in rate hikes preceded a recession/severe market collapses.