Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Hur mycket guld har Ryssland??????????????????

Publicerad 2019-02-27 15:43:57 i Ekonomi,

Russia has effectively stopped exporting gold on the world market due to the Bank of Russia fears of US sanctions 87% of all gold produced in Russia – 274 tons – was bought by the Bank of Russia, setting an all-time record for its rate of acquisition.


Vem skall finansiera den snabbt stigande stats skulden i USA

Publicerad 2019-02-25 10:22:00 i Ekonomi,

Foreigners sold $77.35 billion in US Treasuries in December after net sales of $13.2 billion in November. December’s outflow was the largest since the U.S. government agency started recording Treasury debt transactions in January 1978. ht


Debt Bomb

Publicerad 2019-02-22 11:18:19 i Ekonomi,

Most firms in the S&P 500 are not “cash-rich” – the data is skewed by the top 5% of the companies.



Publicerad 2019-02-21 10:58:26 i Ekonomi,

hits 90% bullishness on its . It has only been higher in the past 7 years on Jan 24th, 2018, when it hit 91 DSI and peaked at 1365. Prior to that, you have to go back to Feb 7, 2012. Certainly top-worthy unless "this time is different." Silver at 66.

Kraftigt överköpt S&P 500

Publicerad 2019-02-18 10:14:16 i Ekonomi,

On Dec 24, only 1% of stocks in the S&P 500 closed above their 50-day moving avg, one of the most extreme oversold levels in history. After an 18% vertical rally over the last 8 weeks, that number now stands at 92%, one of the most extreme overbought levels in history.


Kina ökar likviditeten och hoppas på att ekonomin skall ta fart

Publicerad 2019-02-15 16:56:11 i Ekonomi,

Here's what happened in January: Chinese financial institutions made a record 3.23 trillion yuan of new loans, versus a projected 3 trillion yuan. That was the most in any month back to 1992, when the data began, and represented a whopping 13.4% yoy increase in January.

But while the surge in new loans was impressive, it was nothing compared to what China reported in its broader, all-encompassing Aggregate Financing (until recently Total Social Financing), which exploded nearly threefold from December's 1.59 trillion to an unprecedented 4.64 trillion ($685 billion) in the month of January, smashing expectations of 3.31 trillion, and printing far above the highest forecast from 26 economists of 3.9 trillion. This was, as several traders noted, nothing short of a "gargantuan" credit injection, and an obvious greenlight to China's latest attempt to reflate its economy.

När får vi höra ordet recession i USA

Publicerad 2019-02-15 10:44:00 i Ekonomi,

This is now the widest drop in Consumer Confidence Present Situation vs. Expectations since the Tech Bust.
Every other cyclical decline in the past 50 years led to a recession.
NY Fed's recession probability gauge is the highest since 2008:

Är det någon som tror på fria marknader

Publicerad 2019-02-11 17:26:00 i Ekonomi,

Bank of Japan’s Hoard of Assets Is Now Bigger Than the Economy The Federal Reserve’s assets are about 20 percent of U.S. GDP, while the European Central Bank’s holdings are equal to around 40 percent of the euro-zone economy CENTRAL BANKS around the world have gone INSANE.

QE för folket

Vart tog vinsttillväxten vägen?

Publicerad 2019-02-11 16:04:46 i Ekonomi,

The earnings recession has started. At the end of Sept, the consensus was +6.7% for YoY EPS. By end-2018, that estimate was down to +3.3%. And now -0.8%, with six of the eleven sectors in negative terrain.

PIGS fortfarande under BNP för 2007. Kommer fler följa BREXIT????????

Publicerad 2019-02-07 17:07:32 i Ekonomi,

Not only the divergence is dramatic, but the euro area 'peripheral' economies have not fully recovered from the 2008-2013 crisis, with their total real GDP sitting still 3.2 percentage points below the pre-crisis peak (attained in 2007), marking 2018 as the eleventh year of the crisis for these economies. 

With Italy now in a technical recession - posting two consecutive quarters of negative growth in 3Q and 4Q 2018 based on preliminary data, and that recession accelerating (from -0.1% contraction in 3Q to -0.2% drop in 4Q) we are unlikely to see any fabled 'Euro-induced convergence' between the lower income states of the so-called Euro 'periphery' and the Euro area 8 states.

FEDs balansräkning

Publicerad 2019-02-05 11:16:40 i Ekonomi,

This chart shows the U.S. balance sheet trends per chairman period. How long will QT last? Sources: Federal Reserve St. Louis, Incrementum AG Further insights available in our @IGWTreports:

Frankrike sitter i hissen om Italiens bank problem förvärras

Publicerad 2019-02-05 11:02:20 i Ekonomi,

Europe’s most dangerous stock of public borrowing—some 1.5 trillion euros ($1.7 trillion)—is concentrated on the balance sheets of banks in Rome and Milan. But a rout could quickly sweep in lenders in Frankfurt, Paris and Madrid—the main banks in the rest of Europe are holding more than 425 billion euros of sovereign and private Italian debt, based on a Bloomberg analysis of European Banking Authority data.

Although Italy’s economy slipped into recession in the fourth quarter, markets are calm for now. But a budget standoff in the fall showed how swiftly sentiment can turn. And if markets should turn south, no one knows exactly where the tipping point will come.

French banks are the most exposed if a sell-off in Italy starts to affect the economy and spread through Europe’s financial system. The country’s two largest banks, BNP Paribas SA and Credit Agricole SA own retail units in Italy.

Frankrike    €285.5B

Tyskland       €58.7B

Begien          €25.2B

Spanien        €21.4B

UK                €17.4B



Morgan Stanley om USD

Publicerad 2019-02-05 09:24:29 i Ekonomi,

The dollar has peaked and its weakness may become a negative spiral as foreign investors exit due to the poor currency-hedged returns of U.S. assets, according to Morgan Stanley.

Markets are underestimating the potential for the dollar to fall based on shifts in U.S. growth and the Federal Reserve policy narrative, the bank said. It forecasts the yen climbing to 102 per dollar and the euro to $1.31 by the end of the year, while Nomura International Plc expects foreign selling to weigh against the greenback.
 Morgan Stanley think the major dollar peak is now in

USA dras med gigantiska underskott som måste finansieras. Utländska aktörer vill inte vara med så inhemska aktörer får öppna plånboken som dessvärre verkar vara ganska "empty"

Publicerad 2019-02-04 10:32:50 i Ekonomi,

Below, which of those four buyers bought and held all that debt from 2009 through 2014 (blue columns) versus 2015 through 2018 (green columns).  The changing buyer types before, during, and post QE are quite radical.
domestic public has been left to purchase an unprecedented $3.2 trillion, or 84% of all issuance since QE ended.  The chart below details which domestic sources have been adding to their holdings; "other investors" with an assist from mutual funds.  A quick rundown, below...

Centralbankernas inköp av guld under 2018

Publicerad 2019-02-04 09:38:00 i Ekonomi,

Largest central bank gold buyers in 2018, per continent (tonnes):
Hungary 28.4
Poland 25.7
Russia 274.3
Turkey 51.5
Kazakhstan 50.6
India 40.5
Mongolia 10.8
China 10
Tajikistan 6.7
Iraq 6.5
Kyrgyz Rep 3.9
Colombia 2.5
El Salvador 1.8


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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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