Finansiella marknaderna i USA är ekonomin så FED måste göra allt för att hålla dessa marknader på gott humör
Samma avkastning på en 10 årig ränta i USA som Grekland. Finns det fria marknader, Fråga Super Mario under dagens presskonferens
Folket börjar förstå Centralbankernas galna monetära system och det är när förtroendet försvinner som CB får släcka lampan
Over the last couple of days, Dumb Money Confidence has poked above 80%. While it has gone higher over the past 20 years, this is in the top 2.3% of all readings.'
US accounts for 56% of ACWI market cap - an all-time record. S&P alone, accounts for 45% of equity market cap. YS #DriehausAlts
Long US Treasuries remains the most crowded trade according to BofAML's Global Fund Manager Survey. The market leadership has been relatively narrow since 2013, shifting from high yielding debt; long US$; long Quality; long Tech; long Emerging Markets; and now long US Treasuries.
In this episode of the Summer Solutions 2019 for the Keiser Report, Max and Stacy are joined by Alasdair Macleod of Goldmoney.com for his hard money pitch as a solution to many of the global economic and monetary woes causing societal unrest (from Occupy Wall Street to the Yellow Vests) and despair (like the more than 75,000 annual opioid overdoses in the U.S.). They discuss gold as a unit of account and what that would look like. They also examine the newly popular Modern Monetary Theory whereby the government can print money for the people rather than just for bankers, and why this could lead to more problems requiring urgent solutions. They also discuss an end to globalization and how that might restore national economies.
“ECB balance sheet resumes uptrend. Rose by €6.9bn as QE reinvestments > QE redemptions. Now at €4,684.4bn, just shy of a fresh high, and equal to 40.4% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed’s 18.1% and Bank of Japan’s 102.2%. (See chart below).
ECB Balance Sheet Expanding Again
MORGAN STANLEY: “.. despite the marginal break above 3000 this past week, we expect another failure near the sloping red line in Exhibit 1 that connects the two prior highs last year. ..” (Wilson) (1/3)
The FOMC minutes are out and our sentiment score took a turn towards the doves. It hasn't been this low since 2009.
For those who "can't see the recession", it's illustrated for you in this chart. The NY Fed model now pegs recession risk at 32.9%, a 12-year high. History shows there's no turning back at this level.
Ekonomin inom eurozone på väg rakt söderut, inflationen på väg åt samma håll och snart har vi mer nytryckta euron och betydligt mer negative ränta
But inflation expectation are collapsing (5yr shown) and show no signs of abating..
In an increasing globe trend, we note with interest the following statements made by the National Bank of Poland (NBP). Between 2005 and 2019, the NBP’s gold holdings increased by 125.7 tonnes to 228.6 tonnes and they also confirmed that nearly 50% of Polish gold will be repatriated to their country.
However what is even more telling is that, 95 tons of this increase can be attributed only to the month of June this year. With reference to the increase in their strategic reserves of gold and actions to repatriate a significant portion of Polish gold, the NBP stated that it was their constitutional, statutory and patriotic commitment to not only enhance the economic strength of the Polish state, but also create reserves that will safeguard its financial security.
In returning gold to their country, Poland is following the recent trend set by other European countries. In August 2017, the Bundesbank completed the repatriation of German gold, moving 374 tonnes of bullion from Paris and 300 tons from New York. In 2014, the Netherlands, repatriated 122.5 tons of gold from the US. The Bank of Austria and Hungary are now also in the process of doing so.
Greek 10-year yields have fallen to the lowest ever in data going back to 2007, to 2.15%, At this point, Greece's longer-term borrowing costs are about the same as those for the U.S.
Importantly, the market, which was deeply oversold at the beginning of June, and formed the basis of our “sellable rally” call, is now back to extremely overbought. Such suggests limited upside from current levels. $SPY $TLT https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-the-bull-is-back-bonds-say-no/ …
the last time Composite Regional Fed Manufacturing (12-Month Change) reading was this low, the S&P was down -38.5% y/y (Dec. 2008)