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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Dags för AU

Publicerad 2019-06-14 22:30:10 i Ekonomi,

Incredibly bullish for gold. Real yields inverted have broken out of their six-year downtrend. Confirmed by yield curve inversions and new Fed easing bias.

 

Indien har stort intresse för AU

Publicerad 2019-06-13 11:25:47 i Ekonomi,

India imported 105.8 tons of gold in May. That compares with just 77.6 tons a year earlier. Combined shipments of gold into the country during April and May came in at 226.6 tons. That was up about 74% from the same period in 2018.

 

Buffets indicator

Publicerad 2019-06-13 11:03:46 i Ekonomi,

The chart below plots “The Buffett Yardstick” (inverted) against forward 10-year returns in the stock market.  Right now, according to this measure, investors are paying such a high price they are likely to receive essentially nothing in return over the coming decade, including dividends.

At the same time that potential returns look so poor, the potential for risk may be greater than it has been in generations. Warren also famously wrote, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Determining when they are greedy and when they are fearful is the trick. While The Buffet Yardstick carries a sentiment message of its own, as John Kenneth Galbraith wrote in The Great Crash 1929, “Even the most circumspect friend of the market would concede that the volume of brokers’ loans—of loans collateraled by the securities purchased on margin—is a good index of the volume of speculation.” When investors are keen to add leverage via margin debt to their portfolios they are clearly greedy and vice versa.

Comparing this “index of the volume of speculation” to the size of the economy (inverted in the chart below), just as we did with equity values, shows it hitting a new record high over the past couple of years. In other words, investors haven’t been this greedy in many decades – since 1929, in fact. All of this leveraged speculation must at some point be unwound, usually via forced selling during a bear market. The last two times it came even close to the current level the stock market suffered 50% declines.

AU

Publicerad 2019-06-11 12:48:17 i Ekonomi,

A weak U.S. dollar, falling bond yields and struggling equity markets are creating the perfect storm that will eventually drive gold prices to $1,400 an ounce, according to one research firm.

In a report Wednesday, commodity analysts at Capital Economics reaffirmed their year-end target for gold as the market continues to benefit from shifting investor sentiment. Although off their more-than three-month high, gold prices are holding on to considerable gains, up nearly 4% in the last five sessions; August gold futures last traded at $1,333.80 an ounce, up 0.38% on the day.

 

UK mot recession

Publicerad 2019-06-10 13:58:00 i Ekonomi,

U.K. manufacturing output fell the most in almost 17 years in April as the boost from Brexit stockpiling evaporated and car producers went ahead with planned shutdowns.

The 3.9% decline, the most since June 2002, saw the economy as a whole shrink for a second straight month, Office for National Statistics figures published Monday show. Vehicle production plunged by a quarter.

Factory Output drops most since 2002 as boost from Brexit stockpiling evaporates

 

Construction and the dominant services industry failed to provide any support in April, and PMI data last week suggest the economy saw little if any improvement in May.

  • Construction fell 0.4% from March and services were unchanged; total industrial production dropped 2.7%, the most since 2012, as maintenance work hit output of oil and gas
  • GDP rose 1.3% from a year earlier in April, down from 1.9% in March. Annualized growth in the latest three months was 1.1%
  • The trade deficit narrowed to 12.1 billion pounds ($15.4 billion), as imports and exports plunged following stockpiling by both British and European Union companies in the first quarter
  • In volume terms, exports fell 10.9% in April, the most since 2006; imports declined 14.4%, the biggest drop since records began in 1998
  • Output of transport equipment as a whole fell 13.4%, the biggest drop since 1974
 
 
 
 

Negativ yield kurva och guldpriset

Publicerad 2019-06-10 13:36:52 i Ekonomi,

If you have been paying any attention at all to the financial news headlines in the past few weeks then you know that the US Treasury Bond yield curve is inverted and that the Federal Reserve is positioning itself to lower interest rates before this year is over.

What does this mean for the price of gold?

Well check out this chart with the price of gold and the yield curve on the bottom of it.

Hur skall detta sluta

Publicerad 2019-06-07 11:20:50 i Ekonomi,

World debt at $250 trillion is 3x global GDP – an all-time record. And if we add unfunded liabilities and derivatives, total debts and liabilities amount to over $2 quadrillion which is 25x global GDP.

Bullish för AU

Publicerad 2019-06-06 12:06:26 i Ekonomi,

One condition of a true bull market is that it needs to be in a bull with respect to all currencies. The world currency unit has broken out into a full blown bullish move.

AG och AU i olika valuta konstellationer

Publicerad 2019-06-04 11:28:16 i Ekonomi,

  1. priced in (US dollar, EU euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Chinese yuan) (Jun. 3, 2019) - via

     
  2.   Currency Index (Top 20 GDP Weighted) vs Silver in US Dollar (Jun. 3, 2019) - via
     
  3.   priced in (US dollar, EU euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Chinese yuan) (Jun. 3, 2019) - via
     
  4.   Currency Index (Top 20 GDP Weighted) vs Gold in US Dollar (Jun. 3, 2019) - via
     

AG

Publicerad 2019-06-01 14:46:34 i Ekonomi,

OT – Reinforces my bullish outlook for Silver… Funds – Shortest since Nov 13 when Silver bottomed at 13.86 Banks – Longest since Oct 13. Commercials – Long for the first time since Sep 25. Producers – Smallest short position since Sep 25. 

 
 

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Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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