Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.


Publicerad 2019-03-31 14:40:32 i Ekonomi,

Short positioning in VIX is now more extreme than prior to Feb-18 and Oct-18 sell-offs in equities.

Negativ ränta

Publicerad 2019-03-29 10:36:57 i Ekonomi,

Market Value of Global Negative Yielding Bonds up +$518 Billion today to $10.42 Trillion...just $1.75 Trillion away from record high.


Yield kurvan i USA skriker recessionen är på väg och börsen kan få en ordentlig sättning

Publicerad 2019-03-27 10:47:56 i Ekonomi,

Yield Curve Inversions Since 1968

1968 Yield Curve Inversion


 1973 Yield Curve Inversion
1978 Yield Curve Inversion
1989 Yield Curve Inversion
2000 Yield Curve Inversion
2006 Yield Curve Inversion
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, FactSet.  S&P 500 price performance calculated using day prior to yield curve inversion thru end of month prior to recession start.

Summary “conclusions”

  • The average span between inversions and subsequent recessions has been 11 months, with a range of five months (1973) to 16 months (2006-2007).
  • The average return for the S&P 500 during the spans from inversion to recession has been +2.8%, with a range of -14.6% (2000-2001) to +16.5% (2006-2007).
  • By looking only at the spans between inversions and recessions, it masks much of the equity market weakness associated with the end of each of these cycles (see below).

Maximum drawdowns

  • -36.1% from November 1968 to May 1970
  • -48.2% from January 1973 to October 1974
  • -17.1% from February 1980 to March 1980
  • -27.1% from November 1980 to August 1982
  • -19.9% from July 1990 to October 1990
  • -36.8% from March 2000 to September 2001
  • -56.8% from October 2007 to March 2009

Alasdair Macleod om guldet

Publicerad 2019-03-22 13:27:50 i Ekonomi,

The global economic outlook is deteriorating. Government borrowing in the deficit countries will therefore escalate. US Treasury TIC data confirms foreigners have already begun to liquidate dollar assets, adding to the US Government’s future funding difficulties. The next wave of monetary inflation, required to fund budget deficits and keep banks solvent, will not prevent financial assets suffering a severe bear market, because the scale of monetary dilution will be so large that the purchasing power of the dollar and other currencies will be undermined. Failing fiat currencies suggest the dollar-based financial order is coming to an end. But with few exceptions, investors own nothing but fiat-currency dependent investments. The only portfolio protection from these potential dangers is to embrace sound money - gold.

Chart 3 gives a longer-term perspective of gold’s valuation. It is of the gold price adjusted by mine supply and for changes in the fiat money quantity. Simply put, FMQ is the sum of cash, bank deposits and savings accounts, and also bank reserves held at the Fed. It is the total amount of fiat money both in circulation and available for circulation.

Bara början för guldet

Publicerad 2019-03-22 10:00:57 i Ekonomi,

Incrementum's 13th annual compact In Gold We Trust report released this week (the full 2019 handbook will launch end-May) analyzes the performance of gold stocks using the Barron's Gold Mining Index, stretching back to 1942.

The Liechtenstein-based asset managers points out that the current uptrend for equities in the sector is  still relatively short and weak compared to previous rallies in precious metal stocks.

The chart shows there is still "plenty of upside potential" and the authors Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark J. Valek believe gold bulls could be in for a pleasant surprise later in the current cycle:

The chart shows that every bull market in the sector ended in a parabolic upward spike which lasted nine months on average and resulted in price doubling at a minimum.

 77-year chart shows upswing in gold mining stocks have hardly begun

Ryssland fortsätter att ackumulera guld

Publicerad 2019-03-21 16:14:10 i Ekonomi,

Yesterday was the 20th of the month and you know what that means. New gold data from the Central Bank of Russia! They bought 31.1 tons in February, bringing total to 2,149 tons. Washington is finally noticing; part of the reason I was there Wednesday. This is the new Great Game.


USD Index

Publicerad 2019-03-13 11:49:51 i Ekonomi,

The definition of a bear market, at it's simplest - lower highs and lower lows. In other words - an ongoing down trend. Since the 1970's that's exactly what we've had from the Dollar. Every reserve currency decays and loses it's reserve status. The dollar is no different


Har vi sett toppen???????

Publicerad 2019-03-13 11:33:18 i Ekonomi,

U.S. household wealth recently hit a record of 535% of the GDP, while the historic average since 1952 is 384%. As I've explained in my report, when U.S. household wealth reaches an extreme relative to the underlying economy or GDP (as it did in the prior two bubbles), a mean-reversion or a correction is in the cards. The most recent household wealth bubble has benefited the rich over the middle class and the poor because the rich own a disproportionate amount of assets such as stocks and bonds, which have been inflated by the Fed since the Great Recession.
Household Net Worth as a percent of GDP

CB fortsätter att byta ut FIAT valutor mot guld

Publicerad 2019-03-12 11:02:00 i Ekonomi,

Following the multi-decade high in gold reserves growth in 2018, central banks’ appetite remained healthy at the start of 2019. 

Gross purchases of 48 tonnes (t) and gross sales of 13t led to global gold reserves rising by 35 tonnes on a net basis in January, with sizeable increases from 9 central banks. This is the largest January increase in gold reserves in our records (back to 2002) and illustrates the recent strength in gold accumulation. Demand was concentrated amongst emerging market central banks with diversification the key driver in the face of ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Please note that our data set now includes gold reserves data for Uzbekistan back to December 2017.


När får vi höra ordet recession????????????????????????

Publicerad 2019-03-08 11:42:58 i Ekonomi,

South Korean exports are sinking lower – and with no rebound in sight. . .

What does this mean going forward for global earnings?

Well – it tells us that things are still looking grim.

For instance – just look at the percentage of S&P 500 companies expecting negative earnings this quarter. . .

This shows more than 80% – four-out-of-five – companies expect negative earnings.

But what’s really troubling is the decline in quarter-over-quarter (Q4/18 – Q1/19) earnings growth across all sectors in the S&P 500 (the blue bar represents Q1/2019). . .

These companies are seeing significant declines in their earnings – meaning less income. And that’s not a sign of a healthy economy.




Lönerna stiger i Tyskland

Publicerad 2019-03-07 12:31:03 i Ekonomi,

Germany’s salaries have been climbing 5% YoY, fastest since 2011, trend continues to point upwards. Public sector workers agreed on pay deal, meaning 8.8% rise over 3y


S&P 500

Publicerad 2019-03-05 10:51:27 i Ekonomi,

At least short-term the market is very overbought making for an unattractive risk/reward ratio.

Gula västarna är bara början

Publicerad 2019-03-04 13:47:00 i Ekonomi,

- Ongoing protests in all cities in France
- Mainstream media: 'a few protesters'
- Protests against Macron govt, high taxes, labor laws
- More than 1000 arrested, hundreds of wounded, multiple dead


Min profilbild

Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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