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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

FIAT

Publicerad 2019-09-29 12:39:54 i Ekonomi,

 Peter Schiff:  “The media reports that consumer spending drives economic growth. In a healthy economy economic growth drives consumer spending. In a bubble economy, debt drives consumer spending, which boosts GDP, but not the real economy. When the bubble pops the phony growth is exposed.”
MAJOR UPDATE: What To Expect Next For Gold
 

Skuldbubblan

Publicerad 2019-09-29 12:26:36 i Ekonomi,

The level of government debt around the world has ballooned since the financial crisis, reaching levels never seen before during peacetime.'
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Fastighetsmarknaden i USA på väg söderut

Publicerad 2019-09-29 12:20:12 i Ekonomi,

'Miami has a highly cyclical property market where the magnitudes of the booms and busts dwarf anywhere else in the country. In my experience, trends in Miami real estate also tend to lead national trends by a few qs. Smart guys always watch Miami.'

Vad händer med silver vid inverted yield kurva

Publicerad 2019-09-25 15:21:22 i Ekonomi,

Silver and the Yield Curve Inversion

Yield curve inversions have historically been great for silver prices. Currently we are experiencing such a phenomena, and again it is evidence of conditions that are conducive to some impressive silver rallies.

Below, is a long-term chart showing the spread between the 10-year Treasure Note Yield and the 3-month Treasury Bill Rate.

I have chosen these two to show data for a long-term analysis. There appears to be a mega rounding top. The spread has just recently gone negative (inverted). There is a great likelihood that the spread could go lower, given the rounding top and a similarity to the 70s pattern (ABC).

Silver has already started to move, but what kind of rally can we expect going forward? Previously, I have argued that we are likely to see a rally similar to the late 70s .

Below, is a comparison of the above chart and a long-term silver chart to:

Notice how there were two deep negative spread dives in the 70s. As soon as those spreads went negative the first time during those inversions, silver started a massive rally.

As soon as the current inversion started, silver also started to rally. Will we have a shallow negative spread dive like the two recent ones, or will we see a deep and protracted negative spread dive like that of the 70s?

A deep dive like the 70s would be consistent with conditions ideal for a monster silver rally.

Warm regards

Hubert Moolman

 

Kan FED mota nedgången i ekonomin?????????????

Publicerad 2019-09-20 14:45:15 i Ekonomi,

Historically, when my US macro composite peaks in the 90th percentile & turns lower, things start to get ugly for equities around 4M later on avg. The latest signal triggered in July which therefore targets November for a major correction.
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Är det problem inom bank systemet efter smällen i Saudi? FED fick skicka in 75 miljarder nya friska dollar för att få tillbaka likviditet.

Publicerad 2019-09-18 12:49:20 i Ekonomi,

This topic is concerning, as it always does when there’s trouble with the financial plumbing.
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What the hell is going on? Fed to inject $75bn into financial system after funding squeeze. https://ft.com/content/2c11a972-d941-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17?emailId=5d80e7425036a90004c46452&segmentId=3d08be62-315f-7330-5bbd-af33dc531acb via
 
 
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FIAT

Publicerad 2019-09-16 16:11:57 i Ekonomi,

The Venezuelan Bolivar and Argentine peso show the beauty of "printing money for the people".
 
 
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Citi Bank tror på högre guldpriser

Publicerad 2019-09-10 10:32:32 i Ekonomi,

Citi says #Gold to be ‚stronger for longer' and may top $2,000/oz in the next year or two, citing lower for longer nominal and real interest rates, escalating global recession risks, exacerbated by US-China trade tensions and heightened geopolitical rifts.
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Lyssna om guld och silver

Publicerad 2019-09-06 15:16:05 i Ekonomi,

It’s featured faculty were Rick Rule, president & CEO of Sprott US Holdings and renowned resource investor;  Chris Martenson PhD, economic analyst and co-founder of PeakProsperity.com; and Brien Lundin, editor of the world’s oldest precious metals newsletter and producer of the world’s longest-running investment conference.

The Last Time SocGen's Newflow Indicator Was Here, The Market Was About To Crash

Publicerad 2019-09-04 11:17:30 i Ekonomi,

As the bank explains, looking at this ominous indicator, for most developed and emerging markets that it follows (42 in total), levels are well below equilibrium (at 50), suggesting strong contraction in activity. Europe is the region most impacted, with France and Germany touching the lowest levels since 2001. But the US, Japan and China are also concerned, just 3.9%, 4.4% and 8.5% above their historical lows respectively. On paper, this justifies a cautious stance on so-called leading indicators, such as the ISM manufacturing index and the IFO business climate, which still look overly optimistic in comparison with the French bank's data. In fact, if anything the SocGen global eco newsflow indicator (ECNI) is at levels last observed during the bursting of the dot com bubble in 2001 and the housing and credit bubble of 2008.

And while US sentiment data have only just now cracked below the critical 50-support level that indicates expansion, the chart below shows that the US ECNI is not far from its all time low (the last time the red line was here, the stock market was about to crash).

Egon von Greyerz om S&P 500/yieldkurvan

Publicerad 2019-09-02 14:27:08 i Ekonomi,

Most bond rates are already below the zero bottom and we will see that trend accelerate. At some not too distant point, the bond bubble will stop expanding with long rates going up and eventually also drag the short rates up. At that point, central banks will have lost control of interest rates and the world will see a debt collapse of massive proportions. Rates will go to the teens initially and later to infinity as bonds become worthless.

The very interesting chart below from SignalsMatter.com tells the above scenario in a beautiful way.

The chart shows the S&P Index divided by the 2/10 year Treasury spread.

The green area shows that the risk of a turn is extremely high. This indicator predicted the 2000 crash and also the 2007-9 crash. The Green area since 2017 shows much higher risk than the previous two crises. We are now at the Tipping Point which in simple terms means that we will first see stocks fall rapidly and a bit later interest rates rise. The size of the bubble and the extent of the risk will this time lead to a fall much greater than in 2000 and 2007.

A CRASH IS IMMINENT

The message from the chart above is very clear. The position of stocks at an extreme overbought situation combined with bond rates at an extreme low, indicates that we are now at the tipping point and thus not far from a major market crash.

Inför stundande recession i USA

Publicerad 2019-09-02 11:42:13 i Ekonomi,

Given the current economic expansion, the level of government stimulus is unprecedented. The Federal government will be limited in its ability to stimulate the economy in the next recession because the fiscal policy is already extraordinarily loose.
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AU

Publicerad 2019-09-02 11:25:15 i Ekonomi,

Gold in the top 20 currencies has broken to new highs, it won’t be long until we see new highs for gold priced in dollars…

Gold Currency Index (Top 20 GDP Non-Weighted) (Aug. 29, 2019) – via http://goldchartsrus.com 

 

Vad får man för AU

Publicerad 2019-09-02 09:56:54 i Ekonomi,

“At gold’s most recent peak in 2011, it only took 135 oz of gold to buy the average-priced home in the US. It took just 85 oz in 1980. Today it takes 272 oz. Because unlike the 1970s, most major asset classes are in a bubble today, something history has rarely witness.”
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Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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