the operating profits of companies have not improved. The GDP measure of operating profits (before tax) has not increased for the past 5 consecutive years, and that’s one more than the 4 years of flat profit growth before the run-up of the equity markets in 2000.
the direct and indirect effects of these policies have greatly increased household portfolio risks by elevating the share of equities. In each of the last two finance/asset driven recessions households holdings of equities dropped below the levels of cash deposits and fixed assets - and if that happened again the wealth loss would be greater than equity declines of the tech and housing bubbles combined.
The present situation reading is back at the highest level since the dotcom bubble peak...
The Labor Differential (Jobs Plentiful - Hard to Get) surged back near record highs...
A worse-than-expected 0.3% MoM drop in the Conference Board leading economic index, ending the year with 5 down months in the last six.
The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was stock prices at 0.09
The biggest negative contributor was jobless claims at -0.23
The LEI is clearly not recovering...
The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) has expressed its concern over the amount of increasing global corporate debt. The cut in interest rates by Central Banks has made corporate borrowing very attractive. But there are risks, and the IMF has warned about them in the past. Central Banks’ continuing policies of easy lending have pushed corporations into risky borrowing situations.
The corporations that are raising their level debt are mostly those operating in large, major economies. With an anticipated economic slowdown, the ability of these corporations to service these rising debts is becoming questionable. The problem could come close to rivaling the economic crisis of 2008.
Corporate debt has risen to an alarming $19 trillion. Almost half of this amount comes from major economies such as the United States, China, Great Britain, Italy, France, Germany, and Spain. The IMF is right to sound the alarm.
The top households have done very, very well in the past 20 years of Fed largesse, while the incomes of the bottom 80% have gone nowhere.
Meanwhile, big-ticket costs of living such as rent have skyrocketed: so how do we buy nice things if our wages are stagnant but the cost of essentials is rising? We borrow more money.
Platina bryter igenom USD 1000. AG har en korrelation med Platina priset men har den senaste tiden laggat efter. Dags för AG att handlas runt USD 20.
We averaged the monthly performance of the silver price since 1975. It shows that historically, silver tends to rise from November through April.