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Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Equity Markets 2020 vs. 2000

Publicerad 2020-01-28 14:15:00 i Ekonomi,

S&P 500 price to sales ratio hit a record high of 2.16 at the beginning of 2000 and has now been exceeded for the first time by the current reading of 2.25X.
 

the operating profits of companies have not improved. The GDP measure of operating profits (before tax) has not increased for the past 5 consecutive years, and that’s one more than the 4 years of flat profit growth before the run-up of the equity markets in 2000.

the direct and indirect effects of these policies have greatly increased household portfolio risks by elevating the share of equities. In each of the last two finance/asset driven recessions households holdings of equities dropped below the levels of cash deposits and fixed assets - and if that happened again the wealth loss would be greater than equity declines of the tech and housing bubbles combined.

 

The present situation reading is back at the highest level since the dotcom bubble peak...

The Labor Differential (Jobs Plentiful - Hard to Get) surged back near record highs...

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-01-27 09:29:00 i Ekonomi,

The outbreak of the novel Wuhan #coronavirus is following the law of exponential growth. (e.g. 1, 3, 7, 20, 55, 148, 403, 1097, 2981 ... )
 
 
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Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-01-24 16:11:00 i Ekonomi,

Presented with little comment aside to ask (rhetorically), why - amid the unknown parameters of what appears to be escalating into a global pandemic, and ongoing weakness in economic data despite the 'trade deal' - are stocks soarng to record highs as bond yields collapse to 3-month lows?

När får vi höra ordet recession i USA

Publicerad 2020-01-23 16:27:57 i Ekonomi,

A worse-than-expected 0.3% MoM drop in the Conference Board leading economic index, ending the year with 5 down months in the last six.

  • The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was stock prices at 0.09

  • The biggest negative contributor was jobless claims at -0.23

The LEI is clearly not recovering...

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-01-22 14:58:00 i Ekonomi,

Over the last year trailing P/E multiples have increased by 30% and 33% for $SPX and $NDX respectively.
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$SPX is reporting a net profit margin of 10.7% in Q4, which would mark the 4th straight quarter of year-over-year declines in net profit margin. https://bit.ly/2vddr9j
 
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IMF är oroliga över företagens skuldsättning

Publicerad 2020-01-20 11:15:50 i Ekonomi,

The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) has expressed its concern over the amount of increasing global corporate debt. The cut in interest rates by Central Banks has made corporate borrowing very attractive. But there are risks, and the IMF has warned about them in the past. Central Banks’ continuing policies of easy lending have pushed corporations into risky borrowing situations.

The corporations that are raising their level debt are mostly those operating in large, major economies. With an anticipated economic slowdown, the ability of these corporations to service these rising debts is becoming questionable. The problem could come close to rivaling the economic crisis of 2008.

Corporate debt has risen to an alarming $19 trillion. Almost half of this amount comes from major economies such as the United States, China, Great Britain, Italy, France, Germany, and Spain. The IMF is right to sound the alarm. 

Kommer det en revolution underifrån i USA???????

Publicerad 2020-01-17 13:52:00 i Ekonomi,

The top households have done very, very well in the past 20 years of Fed largesse, while the incomes of the bottom 80% have gone nowhere.

Meanwhile, big-ticket costs of living such as rent have skyrocketed: so how do we buy nice things if our wages are stagnant but the cost of essentials is rising? We borrow more money.

Tyskland behöver sätta igång finanspolitiska åtgärder mot den allt trögare ekonomin

Publicerad 2020-01-15 13:55:34 i Ekonomi,

Germany suffered weakest growth in 6yrs in 2019. GDP rose 0.6% YoY. The mini GDP growth reveals the end of the German export model. And Germany’s problems matter for the rest of Europe. https://welt.de/wirtschaft/article205031660/Konjunktur-Das-Mini-Wachstum-offenbart-das-Ende-des-deutschen-Modells.html?wtmc=socialmedia.twitter.shared.web via
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Fiscal model student: Germany's budget surplus may have fallen to €49.8bn in 2019 after €62.4bn in prev year but budget surplus still at 1.5% of GDP.
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Håll koll på Jobless Claims

Publicerad 2020-01-13 10:00:00 i Ekonomi,

 
 
 
Continuing Jobless Claims now rising the most since the Great Recession. This index tracks the unemployment rate with an exceptional 0.97 correlation since 1968! Keep this in mind. The labor market holds the key for the business cycle.
 
 
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NFIB job openings fell again in December to the lowest levels YoY since March ’08. Historically, a peak in NFIB job openings has been a bad omen for global equities vs. global bonds. Is the Fed already too late?
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Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-01-13 09:56:00 i Ekonomi,

Last week, y'all bought to open 21.6 million speculative call options. That's the most *ever*. Your previous record was 19.7 million during the week of Jan 26, 2018. Your total bullish / bearish volume was the most since March 2000. 
 
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Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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