macrogoldsilver.blogg.se

Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

FED flödar marknaden med pengar men till vilken nytta

Publicerad 2020-03-31 11:39:27 i Ekonomi,

This chart should destroy the myth of "stimulus." Fed balance sheet is going straight up. Corporate earnings going straight down. Fed printing is keeping the lights on in the financial system, but not much else. There is spending. There is printing. But, there is no "stimulus."
 
 
Bild

När får vi liknande utveckling för AU och AG

Publicerad 2020-03-28 15:34:00 i Ekonomi,

Platinum's price launch is imminent as we can see the London lease rate for the metal is now breaking-out due to metal shortage.
London #Platinum lease rate have shot to highest level in more than 15 years today, Mar 27 (Mar 23 rate in [ ] ).
1Mo. 4.44% [1.42%]
3Mo. 7.37% [1.73%]
6Mo. 7.05% [1.48%]
1Yr. 4.47% [1.21%]
 
 
Bild
 
 

Är FED den enda köparen av amerikanska Bonds????????

Publicerad 2020-03-27 14:09:38 i Ekonomi,

FEDs Balance Sheet Tops $5 Trillion for First Time *Link: https://bloom.bg/2UIMTWg
Bild
 
Outflows from bond funds continue and every week there's a new record. As of March 25, investors had yanked $38 billion from investment-grade funds over the past 7 days, surpassing the previous week's record outflow of $36 billion. https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-26/investment-grade-bond-funds-see-record-38-billion-outflow
 
 
Bild

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-03-26 11:14:03 i Ekonomi,

Another keeper from DB’s Torsten Slok “The TSA counts number of passengers originating trips from US airports, i.e. No. of people who show their boarding pass to a TSA agent at TSA checkpoints. On a normal March day over 2M people travel by air in US. Yesterday number was 279,018
 
 
Bild

Det är en bit kvar

Publicerad 2020-03-26 11:12:28 i Ekonomi,

Here's an updated chart of the value of the total U.S. stock market (blue line), U.S. GDP (red line), and U.S. broad money supply (green line):
 Bild

Goldman Sachs säger det är hög tid att köpa guld

Publicerad 2020-03-25 13:27:04 i Ekonomi,

Goldman Sachs tells clients it is time to buy gold

 
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here.
https://www.ft.com/content/052f4932-6de2-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

Gold continued to push higher on Tuesday as a recent wave of selling dried up and Goldman Sachs told its clients the time had come to buy the “currency of last resort”. Like other asset classes, gold was hit hard in the recent scramble for US dollars, falling more than 12 per cent from its early March peak of around $1,700 a troy ounce to $1,460 last week.  The yellow metal started to see a resurgence on Monday, rising by more than 4 per cent after the Federal Reserve said it would buy unlimited amounts of government bonds and the US dollar fell.  It gained another 4 per cent to $1,618 on Tuesday helped by the recommendation from Goldman Sachs, which said gold was at an inflection point and could hit $1,800 over the next 12 months. The record high for gold is $1,900, reached in 2011. “We have long argued that gold is the currency of last resort, acting as a hedge against currency debasement when policymakers act to accommodate shocks such as the one being experienced now,” said Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities at the Wall Street bank. As well as being seen as a hedge against all kinds of market volatility, gold is viewed by many investors as a way to protect themselves from the debasement of currencies and also inflation.
 
(FILES) In this file photo taken on February 20, 2020 Swiss gold bars are pictured in Paris. - In times of crisis, gold, which often benefits from a safe haven image, is prized by investors. So much so that retailers specialising in the sale of precious metals have seen their activity jump and are struggling to cope with the influx of orders, on the back of the Covid-19 novel coronavirus pandemic. "The phone keeps ringing" and "the demands have exploded," Alessandro Soldati, director of Gold Avenue, the official dealer of the Pamp group, world leader in precious metals, told AFP on March 24, 2020. (Photo by JOEL SAGET / AFP) (Photo by JOEL SAGET/AFP via Getty Images)

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-03-25 11:40:31 i Ekonomi,

The Gold/SPX ratio broke above its 50-month moving average a few months back. The last time it did this was in 2001 when gold went on to have a massive rally for ten years.
 Bild

Från Roy Sebags Twitter

Publicerad 2020-03-25 10:46:46 i Ekonomi,

I’ve received some important information relating to what’s going on in Gold markets. Today, some banks failed to deliver physical in the comex bar EFP. As a result, these banks suffered large losses which will soon be announced. They’ve also decided to exit the comex market.
Now there remains a big shortage in physical in the comex denomination so rumors are the Comex will announce a force majeure and allow banks to deliver LBMA bars instead. This should be announced imminently.
 
Bild

Efter FEDs besked om oändlig pengatryckning börjar nu papperspengarnas existens sättas på ordentligt prov

Publicerad 2020-03-24 15:34:04 i Ekonomi,

1971 fick vi ett monetärt system i världen där majoriteten av alla världsvalutor blev FIAT valutor eller som vi kallar dem papperspengar. Valutor utan ankare av guld, silver eller något annat. Förtroendet är det som håller värdet på papperspengarna uppe. Det som kännetecknar dagens monetära system är att det går att trycka obegränsat med pengar vilket man har gjort inom de stora valutablocken. Världen har aldrig haft så mycket skulder som den har idag. Skulderna uppgår till ca 350% av världens BNP.
Det har genom årtusenden funnits 100 tals exempel på papperspengar där samtliga har misslyckats. Kineserna var först ut med att exprimentera med papperspengar på 1100-talet. Man framställde pengar för att finansiera statens utgifter och fick därmed en valuta som tappade i köpkraft och senare inflation. Det är inte för inte som kineserna köper allt guld dom kan komma över idag.
Precis som alla sina föregångare är vårt nuvarande system med papperspengar ohållbart. Det leder alltid till ökade skulder, framförallt inom staten samt tilltagande ekonomisk instabilitet.
 
Vad händer när systemet börjar att vackla.
1) Man ändrar monetärt system genom förhandlingar mellan olika länder. 
2) Man trycker pengar till dom blir värdelösa genom hyperinflation.
3) Krig förändrar världsbilden och därmed det monetära systemet.
 
Med dagens politiker som gillar att spendera och skuldsätta sig så kan vi utesluta den första punkten.
Kvar är då hyperinflation eller Krig.
Båda dessa är positiva för guld och silver. 
 
 
 
 

Sista raderna i sista kapitlet om FIAT

Publicerad 2020-03-24 14:26:42 i Ekonomi,

Retail investors in Europe and the US have bought up gold and silver bars and coins over the past two weeks in an effort to protect their money from the collapse in global stock prices and many currencies." And with the Fed now set to unleash unprecedented dollar destruction by injecting over $625 billion in freshly printed fiat into the system this week alone...

Rekord premium för AU och AG

Publicerad 2020-03-24 12:34:56 i Ekonomi,

According to Kitco, silver sales are skyrocketing: “Data from the U.S. Mint shows that it has sold 2.32 million one-ounce silver coins so far this month, up significantly from February sales of 650,000 coins.”

And based on wholesale cost over spot price for 1 oz bullion American Eagles, premiums for physical products are soaring higher. Gold is selling at about a 6% premium and silver is selling at an 86% premium. Both of these figures are well over their averages from earlier in the year.

precious metals premiums

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-03-24 11:02:00 i Ekonomi,

Eurozone MAR PRELIMINARY
-PMI MANUFACTURING: 44.8 V 39.0E (131-month low)
- PMI Services: 28.4 v 39.5e (record low)
- PMI Composite: 31.4 v 38.8e (record low) *Link: https://bit.ly/3agQyBp
Bild
 
Germany MAR PRELIMINARY
-PMI MANUFACTURING: 45.7 V 39.9E (92-month low)
- PMI Services: 34.5 v 43.0e (1st contraction in 81 months and lowest reading since series began)
- PMI Composite: 37.2 v 41.0e (133-month low) *Link: https://bit.ly/39g5YVd
 
 
Bild
 

Coronaviruset

Publicerad 2020-03-24 10:58:15 i Ekonomi,

Thanks to our combined efforts, we now have a clearer idea of the YoY road traffic congestion in a number of countries. China has rebounded 2/3rds of the way. Singapore is showing early recovery, but we need more days.The rest are slowing down. #OOTT Graph by @SbrigliaGiorgio
Bild
 

Det går fort i hockey

Publicerad 2020-03-22 13:21:09 i Ekonomi,

The Fed's balance sheet soared $356 billion in one week as of Wednesday, up to new highs.
They then added $150 billion in UST and $30-$40 billion in MBS purchases on Thurs/Fri.
Probably hitting $5 trillion by early next week.
 
 
Bild

Om Kina är måttstocken är det nära peak för Italien

Publicerad 2020-03-19 11:46:00 i Ekonomi,

Is China a leading indicator for the rest of the world as COVID-19 runs its course?
 
*FEDEX SAYS CHINA DEMAND HAS REBOUNDED MORE THAN EXPECTED
 
*FEDEX SAYS 90-95% OF LARGE CHINESE MANUFACTURERS BACK OPERATING
 
*FEDEX SAYS 65-70% OF SMALL BUSINESSES IN CHINA OPERATING AGAIN
 
Bild

Helikopter pengar i Kina

Publicerad 2020-03-19 11:36:03 i Ekonomi,

Coronavirus: China local governments try to boost spending with voucher programme worth billions of yuan

 
Retail spending, the engine of China’s economic growth, plunged 20.5 per cent in the first two months of this year from a year earlier due to the coronavirus. Photo: AFPRetail spending, the engine of China’s economic growth, plunged 20.5 per cent in the first two months of this year from a year earlier due to the coronavirus. Photo: AFP
Retail spending, the engine of China’s economic growth, plunged 20.5 per cent in the first two months of this year from a year earlier due to the coronavirus. Photo: AFP
 

China’s central government has endorsed efforts by local governments to distribute prepaid vouchers worth billions of yuan to lift consumer spending amid the coronavirus outbreak, although the packages pale in comparison with direct handouts announced by the Hong Kong government and planned in the US.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planning agency, said it was closely watching voucher programmes in a number of cities and urged other local governments to consider similar measures based on their budgetary leeway.

Som vid tidigare kriser flyr investerarna EM och behöver USD vilket leder till en starkare USD och en ändå mer trumpen Trump

Publicerad 2020-03-19 10:14:16 i Ekonomi,

This is the biggest 7-day gain for the USDollar since Black Wednesday in 1992 when George Soros "broke The Bank of England,"  crashing the pound and forcing Britain to withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

It is also on par with October 1978's surge in the dollar when the Fed clamped down hard on monetary policy - after the signing of the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act, better known as the Humphrey-Hawkins Act, mandating The Fed to crack down on inflation (which Volcker then did by drastically raising rates) - sending the stock market into the infamous "October massacre."

Verkligheten från en PM dealer i USA

Publicerad 2020-03-19 10:03:17 i Ekonomi,

BullionStar Update – The Window to Purchase Precious Metals with Fiat Currency is Closing

More and more refineries, mints and fellow bullion dealers are suspending their operations indefinitely. At BullionStar, we are facing significant operational and stock inventory challenges. There’s an acute shortage for particularly Gold CoinsSilver Bars and Silver Coins. For Gold Bars, some of the private refineries are still open and take orders but have long backlogs.

COMEX and London OTC Spot Price Discovery Failing

What does this mean for price premiums?

Due to the paper spot and futures precious metals markets not reflecting the demand and supply for physical precious metals, premiums are high and are fluctuating a lot.

The precious metals price premium mechanism is there to balance physical demand and physical supply of precious metals.

Despite higher than normal premiums, demand for physical precious metals continues to be overwhelming. We receive several hundred orders each day. We’ve had two hour waiting times in the shop even though we just expanded the shop to 5 counters and even though we have an extremely efficient system for serving customers. At BullionStar, we currently have about 8 customer buy orders for every customer sell order which is the highest we have seen in years.

Extreme Demand – Scarce Supply

Precious metals have been hit by a double whammy. Demand is truly extreme and unprecedented, and at the same time due to the COVID-19 situation, the bullion supply chain is facing the same issues as other scarce good supply chains.

The underlying problem here is that price discovery for precious metals is a farce and is broken as we have warned about and pointed out so many times over the years such as herehereherehere and here.

Disconnect between the Paper Price and Physical Price

There is  a disconnect between on the one hand, the COMEX futures and London spot OTC market and on the other hand, the physical precious metals market.

Unless there is a very strong rally in the paper market that balances physical demand and supply, the disconnect between the paper market and physical market may widen until the paper pricing system (COMEX futures and LBMA unallocated system) implodes.

In a scenario where the paper spot market doesn’t rally to balance physical demand and supply, physical precious metals will no longer be priced based on the spot market. Bullion dealers will stop pricing metals. Many have already done so by suspending the accepting of orders.

When preferences in the derivatives paper spot and futures markets, which are unbacked or only partially backed by precious metals, differ from supply and demand in the physical market, prices disconnect.

The Window to Purchase Precious Metals with Fiat Currency is Closing

The window for purchasing physical precious metals with fiat currency is quickly closing. At this time, it is still possible to settle physical precious metals purchases in fiat currency with some bullion dealers. At BullionStar, we are still accepting orders for precious metals settled in fiat currencies, and priced based on spot with a premium, but that is subject to change.

I would strongly recommend everyone to value and count their physical precious metals in weight i.e. in grams or troy ounces, not in fiat currency.

If you don’t hold physical precious metals yet, the window for acquiring metal is closing in. At BullionStar, we still have inventory stock of some items but are running out quickly. By traditional means, our premiums are very high but still not high enough for physical demand and supply to balance.

If you as a saver or investor find actual bullion in stock with another bullion dealer that has better conditions than us, go for it. At this time, any fiat currency price quoted for physical metals is a good price.

 

Trapporna upp hissen ner

Publicerad 2020-03-18 11:32:38 i Ekonomi,

According to Bloomberg World Echange Market Capitalization (USD), global stock markets have lost 27% since mid-February, in other words, $23.8Trn in market cap.
 Bild

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-03-05 12:15:49 i Ekonomi,

These are the last times the Fed & the BoC cut rates by at least 50bps in the same month:
3/2001
9/2001
10/2001
11/2001
03/2008
10/2008
12/2008 
 
 
Bild

Vad händer efter FED gjort panikåtgärder

Publicerad 2020-03-04 12:27:00 i Ekonomi,

Just to put things into perspective: Medium S&P 500 move after Fed emergency cuts were +2.8% (1w), -4.3% (6m), -9.2% (1y). Avg 1y price return for S&P 500 is 6%, so that is considerable 6m, 1y under-performance when Fed deems it necessary to do emergency cut, DB’s Reid writes.
 
Bild
 
Bild

Coronavirus

Publicerad 2020-03-04 11:50:00 i Ekonomi,

#CHINA FEB. RETAIL PASSENGER CAR SALES -80% Y/Y: PRELIM. DATA (BIGGEST DECLINE ON RECORD) - BBG *It means that sales improved in the latest week of Feb. (see chart) *CHINA JAN.-FEB. RETAIL PASSENGER CAR SALES MAY -41% Y/Y: PCA
 
As of Monday, 55% of Chinese SMEs have not resumed production, while some of the remaining 45% that reopened, find it difficult to return to their normal capacity: Xin Guobin, vice-minister of #China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology #COVID19
 
 
#China May Cut Rates in Open Market Operations in March - China Securities Journal says - Commentary doesn’t give size of the estimated rate cut. *Link (Chinese):
 
Private sector output in #Singapore fell at the strongest rate since data collection started in August 2012 -Markit *Link: https://bit.ly/2ToKeBT
 
Bild
 
#HongKong Business Outlook Plunges to Record Low on Virus - Bloomberg *Bloomberg link: https://bloom.bg/2TjeyOb
Bild
 
AAPA estimates that 1Q cargo volume at U.S. seaports will fall by 20% y/y due to #coronavirus … LA port volumes fell 25% in February & SC port projects 15% & 20% declines in March & April, respectively
 
 

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-03-03 11:00:25 i Ekonomi,

As the bulls go wild on today's bounce, a reminder: we had 11 sessions in the 2008/09 bear market when the Dow surged 4%; and 7 of these same whippy moves in the 2001/02 malaise. These happen more in bear markets than in bull markets by a huge margin.
 
Mad markets. Wall St jumps, w/ Dow Jones up 1,293.96 points >5.1%, biggest percentage gain since 2009, fueled by hopes central banks will act in concert to offset any impact from the spreading coronavirus.
 
 
Bild

Coronavirus

Publicerad 2020-03-03 10:43:00 i Ekonomi,

Beijing city tightens restrictions for Chinese and foreign travelers from South Korea, Italy, Iran, Japan, other countries badly hit by #coronavirus. All must be quarantined for 14 days at home or appointed hotel. Diplomats follow own rules. Shanghai sets 14-day quarantine, too.
 
Global #Manufacturing PMI: 47.2 (lowest since May 2019) v 50.4 *Manufacturing production and new orders registered their sharpest declines since April 2009. *Link: https://bit.ly/2ThrO5N
 
 
Bild
 
U.S ISM MANUFACTURING PRICES (FEB) ACTUAL: 45.9 VS 53.3 PREVIOUS; EST 50.3
 
U.S ISM MANUFACTURING NEW ORDERS INDEX (FEB) ACTUAL: 49.8 VS 52.0 PREVIOUS; EST 51.8
 
U.S ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (FEB) ACTUAL: 50.1 VS 50.9 PREVIOUS; EST 50.5
 
*#JAPAN OLYMPICS MINISTER SEIKO HASHIMOTO SPEAKS IN TOKYO - BBG *HASHIMOTO: END OF MAY IMPORTANT STAGE FOR #OLYMPICS DECISION
 
#China’s hottest real estate market freezes over as February home sales plunge 80 per cent amid a dearth of transactions during coronavirus outbreak - SCMP
 
 
 

När får vi höra ordet recession i USA

Publicerad 2020-03-03 10:32:09 i Ekonomi,

The business cycle strikes back! Short-term equities were oversold, so expect a bounce. However, if 50Y of business cycle fundamentals have anything to say about the future perf. of equities at this stage in the cycle, downside risks remain. We’re in for a bumpy ride, buckle up!
 
Bild

Coronavirus

Publicerad 2020-03-02 12:31:00 i Ekonomi,

THAILAND FOREIGN TOURIST ARRIVALS IN FEBRUARY LIKELY DECLINED 40% YR/YR, BIGGER CONTRACTION EXPECTED IN MARCH AND APRIL
 
HONG KONG GOVT: RETAIL ENVV TURNED `EVEN MORE AUSTERE' DUE TO VIRUS - BBG *H.K. GOVT: THREAT OF VIRUS BROUGHT TOURISM ALMOST TO STANDSTILL
 
Goldman sinks #Italy's growth forecasts. Expects that tourism, retail sales and transport fall by 20%, 15% and 10%, respectively in Q1 and Q2 in Coronavirus most affected areas. Points to a 0.3pp hit to national Italian growth in Q1 (not annualised) and around 0.4pp in Q2.
 
 
Bild
 
#China's Housing market to drop 50% in Q1 due to coronavirus: experts - Global Times
 
#CHINA FEB #MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 35.7 V 45.0E (lowest on record) - Non-Manufacturing PMI: 29.6 v 51.0e (lowest on record) - Composite PMI: 28.9 v 53.0 prior (lowest on record) *Link (Chinese): https://bit.ly/2Vsx5sV
 
 
Bild
 
Bild
 
Bild
 
Bild
 
#France bans gatherings of more than 5,000 due to coronavirus - Reuters
 
 
 

Om

Min profilbild

Roger Lundberg

Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

Senaste inläggen

Kategorier

Arkiv

Prenumerera och dela