macrogoldsilver.blogg.se

Skulderna i världen har aldrig varit så höga som de är idag samtidigt som man trycker pengar för att hålla systemet igång. Guld och silver har varit en del av det monetära systemet under flera tusen år. De senaste dryga 40 åren har man dock valt att lämna dessa ädelmetaller utanför och det har medfört ökade skulder och ett ohållbart system.

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-05-27 11:59:36 i Ekonomi,

S&P 500 looks expensive on its 12M fwd PE. The Russell 2000 is currently trading at a record 92% PE premium vs. the S&P 500, a +5 standard deviation event.
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FIAT

Publicerad 2020-05-27 11:42:49 i Ekonomi,

#ECB Balance sheet hit fresh ATH at €5,555.3bn as Lagarde keeps printing press rumbling. Total assets rose by another €49.8bn in the past week on QE and as banks took €9.6bn in new long-term loans. ECB Balance sheet now equal to 46.7% of Eurozone GDP, highest ratio on record.
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Köpläge guld juniors

Publicerad 2020-05-27 10:25:17 i Ekonomi,

Figure 1. Gold and Gold Stocks: A Close Relationshi
 

The ratio of XAU Index to Spot Gold (12/23/1983-4/30/2020)

Figure 3. Gold Mining Equities are Undervalued Relative to Bullion

Senior miners are currently trading at a ~7% premium to their underlying net asset values (NAVs), while junior miners are trading at an ~81% discount.

Figure 4. Junior Miners are Trading at an 81% Discount

 

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-05-26 11:28:50 i Ekonomi,

As the Fed is increasing the money supply while US GDP is contracting, velocity of money is slowing down very fast. Without money velocity there is no inflation possible...
 
 
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AG

Publicerad 2020-05-24 10:55:09 i Ekonomi,

 
Late-2008. $1.3T of monetary stimulus in 70 days and silver went parabolic for the next 2 yrs. Today: -The Fed already doubled that. -Gold/silver ratio near record highs. -Largest disconnect in physical & futures in a decade.
 
 
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Silver-to-equities ratio is one of the cleanest double bottoms
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AU

Publicerad 2020-05-20 15:51:22 i Ekonomi,

Notice that in all of these cases above – the Great Depression (which this is NOT), WW2 (which this is nowhere near being), and 2008 (which was a different kind of crisis) – gold underwent a MASSIVE SURGE in price:
  1. 1934: President Roosevelt famously devalues the dollar relative to gold from $20 to $35 per ounce AFTER CONFISCATING it. This represents a 75% move.
     
  2. 1944: The Bretton Woods Agreement pegs the dollar to gold at a ratio of $35 per ounce, which Washington defaults on, creating a 2,400% move in the 1970s.
     
  3. 2008: Gold rallies to an all-time high by September 2011 of $1,930 INTRA-DAY.

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-05-18 13:04:27 i Ekonomi,

German restaurant gives patrons hats with pool noodles to keep social distance after reopening

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-05-17 16:44:02 i Ekonomi,

Hedge Fund Luminaries Are Lining Up Behind Gold Again

Money printing by central banks and vast state stimulus packages are rekindling interest in one of the oldest stores of wealth. It’s a revival of a trade that became popular in the wake of the 2008 crisis, as money managers piled into gold for similar reasons, but were ultimately disappointed as inflation was kept in check. Yet the unprecedented scale of the government response to the coronavirus crisis is feeding the argument that this time will be different.

Hedge fund luminaries including Paul Singer, David Einhorn, and Crispin Odey are among those bullish on gold, according to recent letters to investors. So are large asset managers like Blackrock Inc. and Newton Investment Management.
 
“Gold is the only escape from global monetising,” Odey wrote. Gold futures were the third-largest position held by his flagship Odey European Inc. fund at the end of March. “In the short term, the money will be made on the inflation bet.”
 
The logic is simple: the massive expansion of central bank balance sheets around the world must eventually dilute the value of their currencies -- most importantly the dollar -- leading to inflation of hard assets like gold. The price of the metal has already risen sharply this year, touching a seven-year high of $1,751.69 an ounce on Friday. But some believe it has much further to go.
 

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-05-15 12:45:57 i Ekonomi,

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for United States New record high. Last time it spike to similar levels was in September 2008. Markets bottomed in March 2009.
 
 
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Coronavirus

Publicerad 2020-05-14 12:05:35 i Ekonomi,

Globally, the virus continues its march, with more than 85,000 cases confirmed on a seven-day average...
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Stagflation?????????

Publicerad 2020-05-14 11:05:07 i Ekonomi,

'The Labor Department reported Tuesday that prices U.S. consumers paid for groceries jumped 2.6% in April, the largest one-month pop since February 1974.'
 
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Som om det inte räckte med Cervezan

Publicerad 2020-05-14 10:50:56 i Ekonomi,

The relationship between the US and China was already teetering close to the edge of a cliff before COVID-19, but the pandemic pushed it right off.

 

Analysis banner
Business Insider

 

  • The US and China have entered the beginnings of a new Cold War in the coronavirus era, experts say. 
  • "We're essentially in the beginnings of a Cold War," the director of the Center on US-China Relations at the Asia Society told Insider, warning of "grave" consequences for the global economy. 
  • "For the international system as a whole, a Cold War would be devastating," the director for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations told Insider, adding that it could "force countries to choose a side."
  • Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
The US and China are on the brink of a new Cold War that could devastate the global economy

AG

Publicerad 2020-05-13 11:17:28 i Ekonomi,

At this stage it is still too early to conclude that silver has gotten enough momentum to capture some the lost ground, both against the dollar and against gold. For that to happen the metal first needs to break below 109 on the XAUXAG ratio and/or above $16.15/oz on SILVERJUL20, the April high and the 61,8% retracement of the February to March sell-off.

Silver Needs To Surge Above $16.15 To Break Out

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-05-11 12:31:00 i Ekonomi,

'The expensive stocks are sometimes only <4x as expensive as the cheap stocks, the median is that they are 5.4x more expensive, but today they are almost 12x more expensive.' https://aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Is-Systematic-Value-Investing-Dead
 
 
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The Big 5 (FAAAM) make up well over 40% of QQQ and over 20% of SPY. The rest of the US stock universe, including the equal-weight S&P 500, has sagged YTD while those Big 5 hold up the cap-weighted major indices.
 
 
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Inflation i korten?????????

Publicerad 2020-05-11 12:28:50 i Ekonomi,

"There are only a few times in history when M2 growth exceeded real output growth over a 5-year span by the same or a faster pace than is currently the case: the inflationary periods of the 1970s–80s and the late 1940s."
 
 
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4
 
37
 
70
 

Silver

Publicerad 2020-05-10 14:07:49 i Ekonomi,

This is the largest (physical) silver coin premium since Bernanke disappointed the markets in 2011 and since Lehman sent investors scrambling...
 
 

recessions, and extreme turmoil, can lead to a massive spike in the gold/silver ratio. Gold goes up, and silver stays flat (or falls).

  • Just prior to World War II as Hitler launched his invasion of Poland, the ratio spiked to 98:1.

  • In 1991 as the first Gulf War began, the ratio again reached 100:1.

  • Today we’re back again in that territory; as of this morning, the ratio is 110:1, and it’s been as high as 120 or more in recent weeks.

Om Nordeas modell stämmer så har vi snart negativ lång ränta i USA. FEDs Fund futures noterade negativ ränta i december 2020

Publicerad 2020-05-08 10:36:23 i Ekonomi,

Now that the seal has been broken, the Eurodollar market is starting to panic, sending Fed Fund futures soaring to contract highs with the first priced in negative rate now shifting from Jan 2021 to Dec 2020 in what appears to be the next market test of the Fed, with stocks, bonds and now FX starting to actively price in negative rates so soon as 6 months from today!

 
See full story: Australia Trade Surplus Surges to Record on Gold Rush
 
 

FIAT

Publicerad 2020-05-07 14:06:23 i Ekonomi,

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US National Debt as % of GDP:
1970: 35%
1975: 32%
1980: 31%
1985: 40%
1990: 52%
1995: 65%
2000: 58%
2005: 61%
2010: 87%
2015: 101%
Today: 113%

Norge på nollan

Publicerad 2020-05-07 12:46:50 i Ekonomi,

In September, Norway's central bank went against the global tide & raised interest rates. Today, it slashed them to zero in a shock move due to the "historically deep downturn" facing the nation's economy.
 
 

Matinflation på väg

Publicerad 2020-05-07 12:40:00 i Ekonomi,

Supermarkets in Germany have now raised price of milk by 8%, cheapest milk now costs 79 cents. Quark has become 9% more expensive, although milk as raw material has become cheaper during crisis. Retailer trying to increase margins
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The price of eggs has tripled in parts of the U.S. Now various lawsuits are accusing egg producers and sellers of price gouging.
 
 
The average wholesale price for Grade A large eggs surged from $1.01 to $3.07 per dozen in March, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
 
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Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-05-06 15:45:20 i Ekonomi,

US Companies cut more than 20 million #jobs in April according to ADP. 10 years of job growth wiped out in one month.
 
 
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Bara början

Publicerad 2020-05-05 14:49:30 i Ekonomi,

Hertz Global Holdings Inc. is preparing to file for bankruptcy as soon as Monday night if the company fails to rework its debt and can’t get lenders to extend a grace period on a missed payment - Bloomberg
 
 

Hmmm

Publicerad 2020-05-04 11:27:40 i Ekonomi,

So far, the course of 2020 crash is reminiscent of the crash of 1929. (Chart via DB)
Översätt tweeten
 
 
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Har varit verksam inom den finansiella marknaden i över 35 år. Har därmed varit med om både upp och nedgångar inom olika marknader. Min bedömning är att vi närmar oss en ny härdsmälta på de ekonomiska marknaderna och vill därför med denna blogg dela med mig av min erfarenhet.

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